MLB Award Balloting, according to Win Shares Options

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

The Hardball Times keeps a record of Bill James' Win Shares statistic for the current season. I have explained Win Shares previously, and while it is not the only metric out there, it is reasonably good. In any case, it provides a decent picture of accomplishments from each player. So how would Win Shares see the postseason voting at this point? Here are the leaders, with statistics tabulated as of September 9th:

AL MVP
1. Gary Sheffield, NYY
2. Hideki Matsui, NYY
3. Alex Rodriguez, NYY
4. Manny Ramirez, Bos
5. Carlos Guillen, Det
6. Miguel Tejada, Balt
7. Johan Santana, Min
8. Vladimir Guerrero, Ana
9. Ichiro Suzuki, Sea
10. Johnny Damon, Bos

AL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana, Min
2. Curt Schilling, Bos
3. Mark Mulder, Oak

Win Shares ranks Pedro Martinez ahead of Mulder in total Win Shares, but I feel the Cy Young should be tabulated solely on a pitcher's accomplishments on the mound. Otherwise I would have to cast a vote for Brooks Kieschnick.

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Bobby Crosby, Oak
2. Shingo Takatsu, CWS
3. Daniel Cabrera, Balt

Before anyone asks, Lew Ford is not eligible for the Rookie of the Year award. The race for third place is desperately close, as Zach Greinke trails Cabrera by 1/10th of a Win Share.

NL MVP
1. Barry Bonds, SF
2. Scott Rolen, StL
3. Albert Pujols, StL
4. Jim Edmonds, StL
5. Mark Loretta, SD
6. Adrian Beltre, LA
7. Bobby Abreu, Phi
8. Sean Casey, Cin
9. J.D. Drew, Atl
10. Todd Helton, Col

The top eight all rank above AL leader Gary Sheffield in Win Shares.

NL Cy Young
1. Randy Johnson, Ari
2. Ben Sheets, Mil
3. Jason Schmidt, SF

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Khalil Greene, SD
2. Jason Bay, Pit
3. Kazuo Matsui, NYM

Now onto Gold Gloves. These are fun, because baseball writers rarely look over statistics before choosing them, and tradional fielding statistics are highly unreliable anyway. And perceptions of fielding tend to linger after natural ability has declined. So you get a few players you would not have otherwise expected. Win Shares does not consider the fielding contributions of the pitcher worth measuring.

AL Gold Gloves
C Damian Miller, Oak
1B Mark Teixeira, Tex
2B Luis Rivas, Min
SS Christian Guzman, Min
3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY
OF Johnny Damon, Bos
OF Mark Kotsay, Oak
OF Torii Hunter, Min

Shortstop almost provided the ultimate WTF moment, as Derek Jeter, the bane of statheads everywhere, ranks second amongst AL shortstops in Win Shares as a fielder.

NL Gold Gloves
C Brian Schneider, Mon
1B Todd Helton, Col
2B Mark Loretta, SD
SS Jack Wilson, Pit
3B Scott Rolen, StL
OF Andruw Jones, Atl
OF Jim Edmonds, StL
OF Corey Patterson, ChC

Win Shares sees Brian Schneider as the most valuable defensive player in baseball. Who knew? It is worth noting that Carlos Beltran's combined totals for both leagues would edge out Corey Patterson.

[Guest_Anglesault_*]

AL MVP
1. Gary Sheffield, NYY
2. Hideki Matsui, NYY
3. Alex Rodriguez, NYY

Er, uh..

[Brett Favre]

According to this, the Yankee lineup is the MVP.

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

According to this, the Yankee lineup is the MVP.

It has to be to survive their pitching.

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

As for Alex Rodriguez, it is important to remember that Win Shares gives him a fair deal of credit for his fielding abilities.

[mike546]

A-Rod? (IMG:http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/style_emoticons/default/huh.gif)

[Guest_Anglesault_*]

A-Rod? (IMG:http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/style_emoticons/default/huh.gif)

Well, it's understandable, I guess...

I honestly have no clue.

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

A-Rod?  (IMG:http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/style_emoticons/default/huh.gif)

Well, it's understandable, I guess...

I honestly have no clue.

While his hitting stats are down, they are still good. 285/373/512. He also plays gold glove defense, and he gets credit for 23 steals while getting caught only 4 times. The system doesn't only use base hitting statistics.

[Guest_Anglesault_*]

A-Rod?   (IMG:http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/style_emoticons/default/huh.gif)

Well, it's understandable, I guess...

I honestly have no clue.

While his hitting stats are down, they are still good. 285/373/512.

The numbers are deceptive. While I wouldn't use the word "bomb" I think it's safe to say that Yankee fans are just now starting to trust him in any kind of meaningful spot.

[Guest_MikeSC_*]

A-Rod?  (IMG:http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/style_emoticons/default/huh.gif)

Well, it's understandable, I guess...

I honestly have no clue.

While his hitting stats are down, they are still good. 285/373/512. He also plays gold glove defense, and he gets credit for 23 steals while getting caught only 4 times. The system doesn't only use base hitting statistics.

Um, isn't TX' record better than it was last year?

Isn't the Yanks' record a little worse?

If both statements are true --- can ANYBODY justify giving A-Rod MVP?
-=Mike

[Guest_Anglesault_*]

Isn't the Yanks' record a little worse?

We're three games better.

[Krankor]

According to this, the Yankee lineup is the MVP.

NL MVP
1. Barry Bonds, SF
2. Scott Rolen, StL
3. Albert Pujols, StL
4. Jim Edmonds, StL

The same goes for the Cardinals. Rolen ahead of Pujols? Just the thought of that is absurd.

[mike546]

I can't believe Edmonds doesn't win.

I swear, every freakin time I turn on Sports Center, I see him and that retarded cocky swing bomb a home run.

[UZI Suicide]

Mark Loretta above Adrian Beltre?

Mark Loretta?

MARK LORETTA?

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

Um, isn't TX' record better than it was last year?

Isn't the Yanks' record a little worse?

If both statements are true --- can ANYBODY justify giving A-Rod MVP?
-=Mike

Because those teams don't exist in a world where A-Rod was the only difference with the same 24 other players every year. The Rangers improved because their pitching went from BAD (5.67 ERA), to respectable (4.50 ERA). Last season they had only three starters collect ERAs under SIX. That's why Texas sucked before this year. Their offense was always good, but they couldn't pitch.

Likewise, the Yankees lost Clemens and Pettitte, and Vazquez and Brown haven't filled the void. Are their failures Rodriguez's fault?

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

According to this, the Yankee lineup is the MVP.

NL MVP
1. Barry Bonds, SF
2. Scott Rolen, StL
3. Albert Pujols, StL
4. Jim Edmonds, StL

The same goes for the Cardinals. Rolen ahead of Pujols? Just the thought of that is absurd.

Again, fielding counts in these things. Win Shares credits Pujols with 33.3 hitting shares, and 2.0 shares for his fielding. Rolen gets 31.0 hitting shares, and 5.4 fielding shares. Thus Rolen edges Pujols 36.4 to 35.3.

[Guest_Staravenger_*]

Are their failures Rodriguez's fault?

Sounds like more of a statement to be "kool" by making fun of the Yankees, despite being as good as they were last year in the W-L columns. They lead the league in home runs for the first time in decades, but the pitching, like mentioned, hasn't been too great, even from Mariano Rivera, the best closer in the majors, has been having a little more trouble this year than years past.

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

Mark Loretta above Adrian Beltre?

Mark Loretta?

MARK LORETTA?

I can see it. Loretta is playing Gold Glove caliber defense at second base while hitting .346 and slugging .518. His side-by-side hitting stats may not look impressive at first, but you have to remember that Petco Park is the most extreme pitchers' park in the Majors. Loretta's hitting statistics become more valuable in such a scarce hitting environment.

[mike546]

Are their failures Rodriguez's fault?

Sounds like more of a statement to be "kool" by making fun of the Yankees, despite being as good as they were last year in the W-L columns. They lead the league in home runs for the first time in decades, but the pitching, like mentioned, hasn't been too great, even from Mariano Rivera, the best closer in the majors, has been having a little more trouble this year than years past.

(IMG:http://forums.thesmartmarks.com/style_emoticons/default/huh.gif)

Mo's had his like best year ever. He doesn't K guys as much, but he still gets the job done. He had under 1.00 ERA for like 2/3rds of the season, and he only has like a 1.84 ERA. He has47 saves, only three blown. He's struggled once during this entire season, the two blown saves in a row against the Sox and Jays. Other than a cheap hrmer by Benji Molina, he's been awesome.

[The Czech Republ...]

Mark Loretta above Adrian Beltre?

Mark Loretta?

MARK LORETTA?

His side-by-side hitting stats may not look impressive at first, but you have to remember that Petco Park is the most extreme pitchers' park in the Majors.

They have to call it Petco Park?

Petco Park?

PETCO PARK?

[Guest_Staravenger_*]

Rivera has more trouble finding the strike zone than any other year he's pitched, has walked more batters, and has not been as dominate as before, allowing too many base runners in key situations.

[mike546]

That's because hes throwing the two seemer this season. And who cares how many base runners get on base as long as they don't score?


EDIT:
G IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1996 NYY 61 107. 73 25 25 1 34 130 8 3 5 27 3 2.09
1997 NYY 66 71.2 65 17 15 5 20 68 6 4 43 0 9 1.88
1998 NYY 54 61.1 48 13 13 3 17 36 3 0 36 0 5 1.91
1999 NYY 66 69.0 43 15 14 2 18 52 4 3 45 0 4 1.83
2000 NYY 66 75.2 58 26 24 4 25 58 7 4 36 0 5 2.86
2001 NYY 71 80.2 61 24 21 5 12 83 4 6 50 0 7 2.34
2002 NYY 45 46.0 35 16 14 3 11 41 1 4 28 2 4 2.74
2003 NYY 64 70.2 61 15 13 3 10 63 5 2 40 0 6 1.66
2004 NYY 65 69.2 58 14 14 3 17 58 4 1 46 0 3 1.81

[Guest_Staravenger_*]

Let's see in a fantasy way...

Yankees lead 5-3.

Rivera loads bases with 1 out.

::Batter A:: drives the ball into the corner of left field. 2 runs score easily, a third possibly.

6-3, game over, yankees lose.

A closers job is to get it done, not put people on base, then hope he can get out of his own mess.

Edit: Hmm... I thought he had better ERA's in his career than 2.xx's.

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

On the subject of Rivera. Sometimes ERA can be misleading. We can use component ERA which estimates ERA based on peripherals. It is not a replacement for ERA, just a different look. Rivera's is 2.42, down from 2.29 last season. He is pitching worse than he was a year ago.

But its all really quite silly. Rivera has allowed more baserunners this season. How many? About four. He is still very, very good.

[mike546]

The thing is, he's better in clutch situations. Yes he blew one game against the Sox, but he always gets the job done. One game comes to me from earlier this year. Yankees lead 5-4 against Okland in Okland in the 9th. Rivera gives up a walk and a hit to start the inning, with Chavez and Dye coming up. He struck them both out. Then theirs the 2nd game of the series where they swept the Sox. Yankees take a 2 run lead in the 9th, and Rivera strikes out the side on like 11 pitches.

I don't care if he gives up more hits, or more walks and less strikeouts. He gets the job done, and thats why hes still the best in the biz.

[Guest_Staravenger_*]

Please don't reffer to a ball player like that. Best in the majors or league, not biz. Sounds like a fucking wrestling term.

[Mik]

Hey, Al. Where does Carl Pavano rank in Win Shares, and what do you think his realistic chance is at the Cy Young award?

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

Pavano ranks 5th in Win Shares, and 6th in pitching Win Shares. The talking heads have begun to notice, so he does have a shot. His winning it will depend on whether the Marlins win the wild card. If they miss the playoffs, he has no shot.

[EVIL~! alkeiper]

Here are the rankings updated as of September 16th....

AL MVP
1. Gary Sheffield, NYY
2. Alex Rodriguez, NYY
3. Hideki Matsui, NYY
4. Johan Santana, Min
5. Manny Ramirez, Bos
6. Carlos Guillen, Det
7. Vladimir Guerrero, Ana
8. Miguel Tejada, Bal
9. Ichiro Suzuki, Sea
10. Hank Blalock, Tex

The surplus of Yankees is due to their outperforming their pythagorean record. They have won more games than you'd expect based on their runs scored and allowed. Since Win Shares works backwards from wins, it gives credit for more wins. Nice to see Johan Santana make the cut, and hopefully voters will list him on their ballots.

AL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana, Min
2. Curt Schilling, Bos
3. Brad Radke, Min

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Bobby Crosby, Oak
2. Shingo Takatsu, CWS
3. Zach Greinke, KC

AL Gold Glove
C Damian Miller
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Orlando Hudson
SS Christian Guzman
3B Alex Rodriguez
OF Johnny Damon
OF Mark Kotsay
OF Torii Hunter

How many people think Vizquel will win based on his offense?

NL MVP
1. Barry Bonds, SF
2. Scott Rolen, StL
3. Jim Edmonds, StL
4. Albert Pujols, StL
5. Bobby Abreu, Phi
6. Mark Loretta, SD
7. J.D. Drew, Atl
8. Adrian Beltre, LA
9. Adam Dunn, Cin
10. Sean Casey, Cin

NL Cy Young
1. Randy Johnson, Ari
2. Ben Sheets, Mil
3. Carl Pavano, Flo

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Khalil Greene, SD
2. Jason Bay, Pit
3. Kazuo Matsui, NYM

NL Gold Glove
C Brian Schneider, Mon
1B Todd Helton, Col
2B Mark Loretta, SD
SS Jack Wilson, Pit
3B Scott Rolen, StL/Adrian Beltre, LA
OF Andruw Jones, Atl
OF Jim Edmonds, StL
OF Corey Patterson, ChC

Carlos Beltran has earned just as many fielding shares as Patterson, but he split them between two leagues. In addition, if he played in one league all season, he'd rank 2nd in the AL overall, and 10th overall in the NL.

[mike546]

Where does Mariano rank for MVP?