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Scientists predict next 193 years of Earth History, The Effects of Global Warming
Quasar
post Apr 22 2007, 09:07 AM
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Our planet's prospects for environmental stability are bleaker than ever as the world celebrates Earth Day on Sunday. Global warming is widely accepted as a reality by scientists and even by previously doubtful government and industrial leaders. And according to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is a 90 percent likelihood that humans are contributing to the change.

The international panel of scientists predicts the global average temperature could increase by 2 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 and that sea levels could rise by up to 2 feet.

Scientists have even speculated that a slight increase in Earth's rotation rate could result, along with other changes. Glaciers, already receding, will disappear. Epic floods will hit some areas while intense drought will strike others. Humans will face widespread water shortages. Famine and disease will increase. Earth’s landscape will transform radically, with a quarter of plants and animals at risk of extinction.

While putting specific dates on these traumatic potential events is challenging, this timeline paints the big picture and details Earth's future based on several recent studies and the longer scientific version of the IPCC report, which was made available to LiveScience.

2007

More of the world's population now lives in cities than in rural areas, changing patterns of land use. The world population surpasses 6.6 billion. (Peter Crane, Royal Botanic Gardens, UK, Science; UN World Urbanization Prospectus: The 2003 Revision; U.S. Census Bureau)

2008

Global oil production peaks sometime between 2008 and 2018, according to a model by one Swedish physicist. Others say this turning point, known as “Hubbert’s Peak,” won’t occur until after 2020. Once Hubbert’s Peak is reached, global oil production will begin an irreversible decline, possibly triggering a global recession, food shortages and conflict between nations over dwindling oil supplies. (doctoral dissertation of Frederik Robelius, University of Uppsala, Sweden; report by Robert Hirsch of the Science Applications International Corporation)

2020

Flash floods will very likely increase across all parts of Europe. (IPCC)

Less rainfall could reduce agriculture yields by up to 50 percent in some parts of the world. (IPCC)

World population will reach 7.6 billion people. (U.S. Census Bureau)

2030

Diarrhea-related diseases will likely increase by up to 5 percent in low-income parts of the world. (IPCC)

Up to 18 percent of the world’s coral reefs will likely be lost as a result of climate change and other environmental stresses. In Asian coastal waters, the coral loss could reach 30 percent. (IPCC)

World population will reach 8.3 billion people. (U.S. Census Bureau)

Warming temperatures will cause temperate glaciers on equatorial mountains in Africa to disappear. (Richard Taylor, University College London, Geophysical Research Letters:)

In developing countries, the urban population will more than double to about 4 billion people, packing more people onto a given city's land area. The urban populations of developed countries may also increase by as much as 20 percent. (World Bank: The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion)

2040


Nature News From LiveScience.com
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Study: Global Warming Could Hinder Hurricanes Huge California Surfing Waves Explained Earthquakes Intensify Volcanic Eruptions Greenland's Mysterious Winds Tied to Global... Crusty Old Discovery Reveals Early Earth's... The Arctic Sea could be ice-free in the summer, and winter ice depth may shrink drastically. Other scientists say the region will still have summer ice up to 2060 and 2105. (Marika Holland, NCAR, Geophysical Research Letters)

2050

Small alpine glaciers will very likely disappear completely, and large glaciers will shrink by 30 to 70 percent. Austrian scientist Roland Psenner of the University of Innsbruck says this is a conservative estimate, and the small alpine glaciers could be gone as soon as 2037. (IPCC)

In Australia, there will likely be an additional 3,200 to 5,200 heat-related deaths per year. The hardest hit will be people over the age of 65. An extra 500 to 1,000 people will die of heat-related deaths in New York City per year. In the United Kingdom, the opposite will occur, and cold-related deaths will outpace heat-related ones. (IPCC)

World population reaches 9.4 billion people. (U.S. Census Bureau)

Crop yields could increase by up to 20 percent in East and Southeast Asia, while decreasing by up to 30 percent in Central and South Asia. Similar shifts in crop yields could occur on other continents. (IPCC)

As biodiversity hotspots are more threatened, a quarter of the world’s plant and vertebrate animal species could face extinction. (Jay Malcolm, University of Toronto, Conservation Biology)

2070

As glaciers disappear and areas affected by drought increase, electricity production for the world’s existing hydropower stations will decrease. Hardest hit will be Europe, where hydropower potential is expected to decline on average by 6 percent; around the Mediterranean, the decrease could be up to 50 percent. (IPCC)

Warmer, drier conditions will lead to more frequent and longer droughts, as well as longer fire-seasons, increased fire risks, and more frequent heat waves, especially in Mediterranean regions. (IPCC)

2080

While some parts of the world dry out, others will be inundated. Scientists predict up to 20 percent of the world’s populations live in river basins likely to be affected by increased flood hazards. Up to 100 million people could experience coastal flooding each year. Most at risk are densely populated and low-lying areas that are less able to adapt to rising sea levels and areas which already face other challenges such as tropical storms. (IPCC)

Coastal population could balloon to 5 billion people, up from 1.2 billion in 1990. (IPCC)

Between 1.1 and 3.2 billion people will experience water shortages and up to 600 million will go hungry. (IPCC)

Sea levels could rise around New York City by more than three feet, potentially flooding the Rockaways, Coney Island, much of southern Brooklyn and Queens, portions of Long Island City, Astoria, Flushing Meadows-Corona Park, Queens, lower Manhattan and eastern Staten Island from Great Kills Harbor north to the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge. (NASA GISS)

2085

The risk of dengue fever from climate change is estimated to increase to 3.5 billion people. (IPCC)

2100

A combination of global warming and other factors will push many ecosystems to the limit, forcing them to exceed their natural ability to adapt to climate change. (IPCC)


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Ocean pH levels will very likely decrease by as much as 0.5 pH units, the lowest it’s been in the last 20 million years. The ability of marine organisms such as corals, crabs and oysters to form shells or exoskeletons could be impaired. (IPCC)

Thawing permafrost and other factors will make Earth’s land a net source of carbon emissions, meaning it will emit more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than it absorbs. (IPCC)

Roughly 20 to 30 percent of species assessed as of 2007 could be extinct by 2100 if global mean temperatures exceed 2 to 3 degrees of pre-industrial levels. (IPCC)

New climate zones appear on up to 39 percent of the world’s land surface, radically transforming the planet. (Jack Williams, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

A quarter of all species of plants and land animals—more than a million total—could be driven to extinction. The IPCC reports warn that current “conservation practices are generally ill-prepared for climate change and effective adaptation responses are likely to be costly to implement.” (IPCC)

Increased droughts could significantly reduce moisture levels in the American Southwest, northern Mexico and possibly parts of Europe, Africa and the Middle East, effectively recreating the “Dust Bowl” environments of the 1930s in the United States. (Richard Seager, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Science)

2200

An Earth day will be 0.12 milliseconds shorter, as rising temperatures cause oceans to expand away from the equator and toward the poles, one model predicts. One reason water will be shifted toward the poles is most of the expansion will take place in the North Atlantic Ocean, near the North Pole. The poles are closer to the Earth’s axis of rotation, so having more mass there should speed up the planet’s rotation. (Felix Landerer)


- AOL News


Well, according to this, Earth is basically screwed as a result of Global Warming. It is interesting that even in the face of overwhelming proof of the destruction of fossil fuels on the environment that President Bush is dragging his feet and refusing to implement alternative fuel sources. There also the threat of warfare in the 2030s into the 2040s over the greatly reduced oil supply. I just hope that our next President can do something about this. I will say this, I feel sorry for the poor guy who has to be President during the middle portion of the 21st century, he's going to have a whole lot of shit to deal with.

..........Or this could be an overreaction and a great dramatization of the future.
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snuffbox
post Apr 22 2007, 09:44 AM
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Has a weird obsession with Barry Goldwater


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What is Ted Stevens' rebuttal for all of this?
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Guest_Richard McBeef_*
post Apr 22 2007, 10:04 AM
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Are the Cubs going to win the World Series?
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2GOLD
post Apr 22 2007, 10:17 AM
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QUOTE(Richard McBeef @ Apr 22 2007, 01:04 PM) *
Are the Cubs going to win the World Series?


Yeah right, a tidal wave will strike just as the Cubs are about to make the last out to win it. It'll be the ultimate final cruel joke.

I want to know when the zombies rise up to kill off half the populace? Does it happen on a Tuesday?
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Darth Vader
post Apr 22 2007, 11:00 AM
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How could the happen to MEEEEE!??!!!


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Stupid question maybe, but how does the earth's population continue to increase even though people are dropping like flies due to heat-stroke, famine, water shortages ect..?
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Quasar
post Apr 22 2007, 11:06 AM
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Clearly having no food, water and being extremely hot makes people extra horny.
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EVIL~! alkeiper
post Apr 22 2007, 11:38 AM
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Spreading chaos since just now!


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I would've loved to see what a similar article would look like in 1804.
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snuffbox
post Apr 22 2007, 11:48 AM
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Has a weird obsession with Barry Goldwater


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We should ignore all science & possible problems in our future.
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Guest_Richard McBeef_*
post Apr 22 2007, 12:11 PM
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Cocky one-liner.
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Art Sandusky
post Apr 22 2007, 01:30 PM
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close to touch like michelangelo


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This is why people hate science and reason. Reading all that made me want to shoot myself.
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Guest_Tzar Lysergic_*
post Apr 22 2007, 02:36 PM
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I don't buy it. We're due for a massssssssive pandemic on the scale of the black plague that reduces the world's population by 30%
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Guest_Richard McBeef_*
post Apr 22 2007, 03:19 PM
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QUOTE(Tzar Lysergic @ Apr 22 2007, 03:36 PM) *
I don't buy it. We're due for a massssssssive pandemic on the scale of the black plague that reduces the world's population by 30%

Medicine is too advanced now for anything of that magnitude, unless we just wipe out poor people.
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ZGangsta
post Apr 22 2007, 03:36 PM
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QUOTE(Richard McBeef @ Apr 22 2007, 10:19 PM) *
QUOTE(Tzar Lysergic @ Apr 22 2007, 03:36 PM) *
I don't buy it. We're due for a massssssssive pandemic on the scale of the black plague that reduces the world's population by 30%

Medicine is too advanced now for anything of that magnitude, unless we just wipe out poor people.

Your ideas intrigue me and I wish to subscribe to your magazine.
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Guest_Richard McBeef_*
post Apr 22 2007, 05:33 PM
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I believe the poor should be blasted into space.
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CanadianChris
post Apr 22 2007, 05:43 PM
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Retired


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QUOTE
2200

An Earth day will be 0.12 milliseconds shorter, as rising temperatures cause oceans to expand away from the equator and toward the poles, one model predicts. One reason water will be shifted toward the poles is most of the expansion will take place in the North Atlantic Ocean, near the North Pole. The poles are closer to the Earth’s axis of rotation, so having more mass there should speed up the planet’s rotation. (Felix Landerer)


This kills me. What does this have to do with anything? Are we supposed to be scared that all the calendars will be off by a day 2 million years from now?
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Guest_Vitamin X_*
post Apr 22 2007, 05:46 PM
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I believe the poor should be blasted into space.

Invader3k is already pledging his support!
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Guest_Tzar Lysergic_*
post Apr 22 2007, 07:10 PM
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QUOTE(Richard McBeef @ Apr 22 2007, 05:19 PM) *
QUOTE(Tzar Lysergic @ Apr 22 2007, 03:36 PM) *
I don't buy it. We're due for a massssssssive pandemic on the scale of the black plague that reduces the world's population by 30%

Medicine is too advanced now for anything of that magnitude, unless we just wipe out poor people.


Wait until AIDS really hits China and the subcontinent, then mutates.
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Vigo
post Apr 22 2007, 07:17 PM
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I don't know it may be cause I'm a dick but personally I don't really care what the world is like in 2200. Why? Because I'll be long dead by then.
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CBright7831
post Apr 22 2007, 07:33 PM
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I wonder if this forum will still be around in 2200. They could look at our posts as if they were artifacts.
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Ripper
post Apr 22 2007, 08:21 PM
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Break me off a piece of that fan-cy-feast


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QUOTE(ZGangsta @ Apr 22 2007, 10:36 PM) *
QUOTE(Richard McBeef @ Apr 22 2007, 10:19 PM) *
QUOTE(Tzar Lysergic @ Apr 22 2007, 03:36 PM) *
I don't buy it. We're due for a massssssssive pandemic on the scale of the black plague that reduces the world's population by 30%

Medicine is too advanced now for anything of that magnitude, unless we just wipe out poor people.

Your ideas intrigue me and I wish to subscribe to your magazine.



The only problem is that if a rich versus poor war broke out, Poor people would win easily. I mean, seriously, rich people are pussies.
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Big Ol' Smitty
post Apr 22 2007, 08:30 PM
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Emily Fucking Post.


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The rich people would just hire a bunch of poor people to kill other poor people.
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Ginger Snaps
post Apr 22 2007, 08:31 PM
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QUOTE(Ripper @ Apr 22 2007, 11:21 PM) *
QUOTE(ZGangsta @ Apr 22 2007, 10:36 PM) *
QUOTE(Richard McBeef @ Apr 22 2007, 10:19 PM) *
QUOTE(Tzar Lysergic @ Apr 22 2007, 03:36 PM) *
I don't buy it. We're due for a massssssssive pandemic on the scale of the black plague that reduces the world's population by 30%

Medicine is too advanced now for anything of that magnitude, unless we just wipe out poor people.

Your ideas intrigue me and I wish to subscribe to your magazine.



The only problem is that if a rich versus poor war broke out, Poor people would win easily. I mean, seriously, rich people are pussies.


Every movie and TV show ever made on the subject has proven that rich people have the money to hire the soldiers to just kill the poor people.

I am excited by 2gold's zombie apocalypse idea though.
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Gary Floyd
post Apr 22 2007, 08:47 PM
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...Goodnight.


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So 2Gold, will it be Romero zombies, DOTD remake zombies, or ROTLD zombies?
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Slayer
post Apr 22 2007, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(Richard McBeef @ Apr 22 2007, 12:04 PM) *
Are the Cubs going to win the World Series?

No

Sell your descendants on some other team
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Red Baron
post Apr 22 2007, 08:52 PM
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Screw Your Problem, I'm Talking About Me!


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Will we meet the Romulan Empire by then?
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BorneAgain
post Apr 22 2007, 08:54 PM
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Gone Cocky Cracka


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QUOTE(redbaron51 @ Apr 22 2007, 11:52 PM) *
Will we meet the Romulan Empire by then?

Romulans, not face to face, no.

Vulcans, maybe.
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2GOLD
post Apr 22 2007, 10:56 PM
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QUOTE(gary floyd @ Apr 22 2007, 11:47 PM) *
So 2Gold, will it be Romero zombies, DOTD remake zombies, or ROTLD zombies?


Well if it's the ROTLD ones then we are all kinds of screwed. Those suckers refused to stay down!
Romero's would cause massive damage in the US when the lot of us who are arrogant think, "Ha ha, they are slow, this is nothing" and start getting cornered and shredded. DOTD remake zombies just confirm you ARE dead no matter what you do so you might as well swallow the gun barrel.

Let's go with the Shaun of the Dead zombies. Much like the Romero ones but you can pretend to be a zombie to fake them out.

I just find the whole predicting 20 plus years into the future to usually be a horrible idea. We don't know how technology will advance, we don't know if any major world wars will break out and we don't know how the government views on Global Warming and such will change. If you are going to include a future where there is no advance in technology and no wars then you might as well come up with a prediction that involves radiation rising zombies from fallen space probes. Or military chemical warfare gone wrong that unleashes a mutation gas into the sky.
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Hawkius Maximus
post Apr 23 2007, 02:49 AM
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I am not a Villano


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I thought it was interesting.

However, I subscribe to the "Malcolm" theory from the Jurassic Park book. Yes, I know, not the greatest source for theories, but the point was valid during his rants near the end of the book.

The idea that we, as humans, are "killing the planet" is idiotic, and conceited. We are changing the prevalent systems on the earth, but we're nowhere NEAR killing the planet. Long after we're dead, the planet will still be here. Provided we don't blow the damn thing up in a whacky Sci-Fi misadventure.

If anything, we're just hastening our own extinction. I think if they put the Ecology movement from "Save the Planet!" to "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!", a lot more would get done.
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Guest_Vitamin X_*
post Apr 23 2007, 08:37 PM
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QUOTE(bigolsmitty @ Apr 22 2007, 08:30 PM) *
The rich people would just hire a bunch of poor people to kill other poor people.


Like this hasn't already been going on.
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Ravenbomb
post Apr 23 2007, 09:57 PM
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*Yawn* Call me when they can tell me if it's gonna rain next week
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