Recent WWE PPV figures from Observer

July 12, 2003

This week's Observer printed the WWE's recently released PPV figures from the past few years. I've jotted down the numbers plus the key matches on the show. Also of note is the final figure from Invasion 2001, which did 760,000 buy, fifth highest in company history.

2002

Rumble (HHH wins, Rock/Jericho): 490,000 buys

No Way Out (nWo debuts, Austin/Jericho, HHH/Angle): 530,000

Mania (Hogan/Rock, HHH/Jericho): 840,000

Backlash (Hogan/HHH): 345,000

Judgment Day (UT/Hogan): 370,000

KOTR (UT/HHH, Angle/Hogan, Lesnar wins KOTR): 320,000

Vengeance (Rock/Taker/Angle, Unamericans vs. Edge/Hogan): 375,000

Summerslam (Lesnar/Rock, HBK/HHH): 520,000

Unforgiven (HHH/RVD, Lesnar/UT) : 295,000

No Mercy (Lesnar/UT HIAC, HHH/Kane, Tag finals): 300,000

Survivor Series (Elimination Chamber, Lesnar/Show): 350,000

Armageddon (HHH/HBK): 340,000

2003:

Rumble (Lesnar wins, HHH/Steiner, Angle/Benoit): 515,000

No Way Out (Hogan/Rock, Austin returns): 450,000

Mania (McMahon/Hogan, Lesnar/Angle, HHH/Booker): 560,000

Backlash (Rock/Goldberg, Lesnar/Cena): 350,000

Judgment Day (Lesnar/Big Show, HHH/Nash): 230,000

Bad Blood (HHH/Nash, Goldberg/Jericho, HBK/Flair): 300,000

Da Meltz tried to chart who brought in the most extra buys when in a main event, starting at a base 300,000 buys and seeing who added on that number (not counting Rumbles or Manias, which draw on the Rumble match and marquee value, respectively). I won't reprint the list, but the only two main eventers who drew negatively? HHH and Kevin Nash.

July 12, 2003

So... Many... Numbers....

July 12, 2003

Wow, I didn't realize how many people bought No Way Out for nWo.

July 12, 2003

2002
Mania (Hogan/Rock, HHH/Jericho): 840,000

2003:

Mania (McMahon/Hogan, Lesnar/Angle, HHH/Booker): 560,000

That sucks.

July 12, 2003

Rumble (HHH wins, Rock/Jericho): 490,000 buys

No Way Out (nWo debuts, Austin/Jericho, HHH/Angle): 530,000 (Up 8%)

Mania (Hogan/Rock, HHH/Jericho): 840,000 (Up 59%)

Backlash (Hogan/HHH): 345,000 (Down 59%)

Judgment Day (UT/Hogan): 370,000 (Up 7%)

KOTR (UT/HHH, Angle/Hogan, Lesnar wins KOTR): 320,000 (Down 1%)

Vengeance (Rock/Taker/Angle, Unamericans vs. Edge/Hogan): 375,000 (Up 2%)

Summerslam (Lesnar/Rock, HBK/HHH): 520,000 (Up 39%)

Unforgiven (HHH/RVD, Lesnar/UT) : 295,000 (Down 43%)

No Mercy (Lesnar/UT HIAC, HHH/Kane, Tag finals): 300,000 (Up 1%)

Survivor Series (Elimination Chamber, Lesnar/Show): 350,000 (up 2%)

Armageddon (HHH/HBK): 340,000 (Down 3%)

2003:

Rumble (Lesnar wins, HHH/Steiner, Angle/Benoit): 515,000 (Up 51% - Up 5% from Previous Year)

No Way Out (Hogan/Rock, Austin returns): 450,000 (Down 13% - Down 15% from Previous Year)

Mania (McMahon/Hogan, Lesnar/Angle, HHH/Booker): 560,000 (Up 24% - Down 33% from Previous Year)

Backlash (Rock/Goldberg, Lesnar/Cena): 350,000 (Down 38% - Up 1.5% from Previous year)

Judgment Day (Lesnar/Big Show, HHH/Nash): 230,000 (Down 35% - Down 39% from Previous Year)

Bad Blood (HHH/Nash, Goldberg/Jericho, HBK/Flair): 300,000 (Up 30% - Down 19% from Previous Year)

July 13, 2003

*reads JD 2003 numbers*

Good. No more "Nash and Show drew reasonably well" rebuttals (BARRON!). The facts are right there.

July 13, 2003

I'm trying to find a pattern...Hell If can find it...

July 13, 2003

*reads JD 2003 numbers*

Good. No more "Nash and Show drew reasonably well" rebuttals (BARRON!). The facts are right there.

I never said that nor did me seeing that imply they should keep being pushed

I meant that given the projections that WWE has at the time- that they drew better then Goldberg did and there buyrates were not considered dissapointments.

July 13, 2003

One pattern I can find is that every PPV HHH is on has a low buyrate.

Seriously....not trying to start HHH hate, but every PPV HHH "headlines" people either bought for another big match or who HHH was fighting.

July 13, 2003

Thank god HHH is around to stop the company from going under.

Who knows how low they'd be if he wasn't all over the cards.

M

July 13, 2003

One pattern I can find is that every PPV HHH is on has a low buyrate.

Seriously....not trying to start HHH hate, but every PPV HHH "headlines" people either bought for another big match or who HHH was fighting.

There is the arguement...

How can you prove unless taking a Nationwide survey if they ordered for *THE OTHER MATCH*

I doubt you'll get the opposite of you expect but that's the direct concise arguement for Camp HHH...

July 13, 2003

How can you prove unless taking a Nationwide survey if they ordered for *THE OTHER MATCH*

That's true, but just look at all the cards with low buyrates. HHH is right there in the/one of the main matches. Look at the good buyrates, and look at the other attractions on the card.

Look at the TV ratings for these periods as well.

There's all credible evidence that HHH is not only not a draw, but he's making people not buy shows.

And I'm not saying that because "I'm a 14 year old kid who is on his mom's computer."

I'm 17, I'd say I have excellent knowledge of the business (at this age, compared to other kids my age), and it's not hard to put A & B together.

July 13, 2003

^ Oh I agree completely

I was just presenting the WWE Camp HHH counter claim.

Truth Be told...Looking at the High buy rates of Rumbles... Shocked vince hasn't tried to do TWO a year...

But

Rumble=NCAA'S March Madness

Rumble is the only time Fans can gamble...

July 13, 2003

*reads JD 2003 numbers*

Good. No more "Nash and Show drew reasonably well" rebuttals (BARRON!). The facts are right there.

I never said that nor did me seeing that imply they should keep being pushed

I know that. You didn't imply that. But you did repeat the company line.

I meant that given the projections that WWE has at the time- that they drew better then Goldberg did and there buyrates were not considered dissapointments.

I understand that. But they were merely projections and you and everyone else jumped the gun on that. I'm now glad I didn't say anything then because I expected the number of buys to drop with every new estimate, and that's exactly what happened. In fact, Judgment Day drew less buys than Backlash.

July 13, 2003

"Rumble (HHH wins, Rock/Jericho): 490,000 buys"

The Rumble itself was well booked and Rock/Jericho had a strong build on the Smackdown prior to the show. It didn't get much mention in the weeks leading to the show, but it was a three month feud. We also had the return of HHH and a very star-studded rumble, along with Ric Flair's first match since his return. There were a lot of good things going for this show.

Who Gets Credit? In all fairness, I think HHH should take the majority of the credit for this number.

"No Way Out (nWo debuts, Austin/Jericho, HHH/Angle): 530,000 (Up 8%)"

Credit the NWO entirely. Austin/Jericho received virtually no hype and the HHH/Angle hype was too corny. They managed to ruin the NWO in one night though, which is exactly why only two buyrates were popped.

I seem to remember a certain group of EZBoard posters doing essay after essay about why bringing in the NWO was a mistake. Whatever happened to those guys anyway?

"Mania (Hogan/Rock, HHH/Jericho): 840,000 (Up 59%)"

Hogan/Rock deserves all credit for this buyrate. What went wrong in the hype with HHH/Jericho has been cussed and discussed to a point of nausea, so I won't bring it up again. I think this was proof that Hogan had one last strong match in him and had they milked him immediately for everything he was worth and had they done Hogan/Austin at Backlash, the momentum might have sustained a little longer than it did.

When you look at this, it was obviously Hogan who drew the No Way Out number as well, more so than the nWo as a whole.

I think, clearly, you would have to say the #1 PPV draw of the first quarter of 2002 was Hulk Hogan, with the drawing power of everyone else subject to everything else on the show. Jericho was a beneficiary (read: victim) of circumstance, headlining shows where his drawing power couldn't clearly be tested and HHH was hot initially upon his return, although he fizzled out after one strong PPV buyrate, and the number at the Rumble obviously doesn't come close to the Hogan/Rock number.

"Backlash (Hogan/HHH): 345,000 (Down 59%)"

Honestly, I'd have to say the blame for this low buyrate goes to HHH, or at least the lack of interest in seeing Hogan against HHH, since Hogan is a legend and a timeless star and despite what WWE would like us to think, fans simply don't view HHH that way, as they do Rock, Austin, Hogan, Flair and even Mick Foley. Hogan, however, drew abominable ratings as champion. The ratings were so bad that they were just salivating to get him to Judgment Day to get the belt off of him and on to the Undertaker.

"Judgment Day (UT/Hogan): 370,000 (Up 7%)"

I think this shows that as a heel in May of 2002, the Undertaker was a slightly (VERY slightly) better draw than HHH as a babyface. Not by much though. You could also probably partially credit the HHH/Jericho Hell in the Cell match for the small increase, although 370,000 buys for a show featuring the most over gimmick match in the company is a tad disappointing, and the draw would be the gimmick, not the feud or either wrestler.

"Credit", if you want to call it that, for the measly 7% increase would go to the Undertaker and the "ominous structure" I suppose.

"KOTR (UT/HHH, Angle/Hogan, Lesnar wins KOTR): 320,000 (Down 1%)"

The number here is slightly less than King of the Ring of 2001, which featured a meaningless-in-the-long-run triple threat main event and the beginning of the WCW inVasion. In 2002, we had Taker v HHH on top and Brock Lesnar plowing through the midcard. Angle/Hogan didn't receive enough hype to receive any credit or take any blame for this one. I'd call it a stalemate and point to HHH and Taker for the small decrease from the previous month.

So, the first quarter had Hulk Hogan as the clear #1 PPV draw, but in the second quarter, he was probably the biggest disappointment. You could call the post-Mania period a point where name value meant nothing because they were in a period of transition with the brand extension and disinterest was beginning to set in on the product. It should also be mentioned that the Rock was out for this period and Steve Austin had just left the company, which I think shows that without them, everyone draws about the same, which is to say nothing.

This makes you wonder why they can't just push new stars, since there is proof right here that the numbers aren't going to go up or down too much when your strong headliners are gone anyway.

"Vengeance (Rock/Taker/Angle, Unamericans vs. Edge/Hogan): 375,000 (Up 2%)"

Why Meltzer listed the UnAmericans v Edge/Hogan having anything to do with this buyrate is beyond me. Obviously, the 2% increase here can be credited to the Rock, and it's a disappointment. Sad as it is to say, up until this point, it looks like Rock is not drawing anymore than anyone else and that Hogan was the reason for the X-8 number being so good. One could also credit disinterest in the product with the Undertaker as world champion, leaving Rock to "pave the highway" so to speak.

"Summerslam (Lesnar/Rock, HBK/HHH): 520,000 (Up 39%)"

This was the best PPV hype job of 2002, as every match had at least a decent storyline and a generous amount of hype. Summerslam can't be considered anything but a major success and I think everyone who wrestled on the show can take at least partial credit for this.

The increase can probably be contributed to a lot of factors. The top heels going into the PPV were HHH and Brock Lesnar. The top faces were Shawn Michaels and the Rock. Eddy Guerrero, Chris Benoit, Edge, Rob Van Dam and Rey Misterio were also getting increased roles during this time, and Eric Bischoff was still fresh and the roster trades were creating a lot of interest. Ultimately, I think the biggest credit goes to all four of the wrestlers in the top two matches -- Rock, Lesnar, HHH and Michaels.

"Unforgiven (HHH/RVD, Lesnar/UT) : 295,000 (Down 43%)"

All of the momentum created by Summerslam was squashed the next night when Shawn Michaels was MIA, emphasizing to even the most casual of fans that he was a part-timer and a non-factor, and thus killing any draw he might have helped the PPV get. HHH was also handed a fake world title out of a briefcase and then defended it against Rob Van Dam and the fans were expected to care. And the Undertaker wasn't doing Brock Lesnar any favors in the hype building to the PPV.

RVD and Lesnar were hot in summer and the smart decision was to elevate them. HHH and Undertaker have to take credit for this number I'm afraid.

So, at the end of the third quarter, we have Shawn Michaels and Brock Lesnar as the only really consistently strong draws and Lesnar's momentum was less nostalgia-based, so for the third quarter, I'd say Lesnar was the #1 PPV draw.

With HLA and the gay wedding being pushed heavily going into the September PPV and it still not posting a horrible number, I'd say that speaks even more highly for the drawing power of Brock Lesnar and the drawing potential of Rob Van Dam.

"No Mercy (Lesnar/UT HIAC, HHH/Kane, Tag finals): 300,000 (Up 1%)"

The increase for this PPV may have been stronger than 1% had the RAW World title picture been stronger and Lesnar had a fresh challenger. The HHH/Kane storyline is now infamous for its ridiculousness and Lesnar/UT was a dead feud.

This was HHH's second consecutive bombed feud, both with reasonably hot opponents (Kane was fresh off of a heavily-hyped return and RVD was at that point the most over babyface on the roster). This was also the second consecutive -- although there were far more cases overall -- PPV where the Undertaker was not catching on as a main event challenger.

"Survivor Series (Elimination Chamber, Lesnar/Show): 350,000 (up 2%)"

The increase can probably be attributed to the return of Shawn Michaels and the gimmick match on top, which was loaded with star power. Had Lesnar had a stronger opponent on the Smackdown side, the buyrate may have rivaled that of Summerslam. I'd say Michaels and the gimmick deserve all the credit for this number.

"Armageddon (HHH/HBK): 340,000 (Down 3%)"

This was the lowest PPV number for WWE in five years, which shows that there was interest in Michaels as a challenger, but not as a champion since he was not viewed as a full-time wrestler. More than HHH, although he should probably take partial blame here too, I'd say Michaels as champion was the reason for this number being low.

Angle/Show received only one week of hype, so I'd call it a non-factor in the overall PPV buy.

The only pattern that you can really gather from 2002 is that Brock Lesnar was the #1 PPV draw when he was put in a main event position, which means his elevation was a success. You could also argue from these numbers that the returns of stars from the past such as Hogan and Michaels typically do well at first, but the worst thing you can do to sustain that momentum is give them the world title.

I'd say the Undertaker was the most detrimental draw for 2002 with HHH being terribly inconsistent throughout the year, to a point where it's hard to say either way with him.

July 13, 2003

^ GREAT analysis.

July 13, 2003

Despite a few little things about that I disagree with, you hit it mostly right on the head.

July 13, 2003

Thanks, but I tried my hardest to just look at what worked and what didn't, not who my favorites were and I threw a few opinions in there, although most of it was just common sense. Numbers aren't opinions, they're facts. When a number changes, you have to look at what else changed around it to cause that change, so things get complicated and it becomes difficult without cut-and-dry reasons for the changes. There is admittedly some, but very little, opinion there.

July 13, 2003

What happened to the Flair avatar? Damn the red Xs!

I really couldn't find much to disagree with on the analysis, and it pained a clear picture of how this year is going. WWE really needs a strong Summerslam this year.

July 13, 2003

R.E. Buyrates:

I know that 1.0 roughly equates to 400,000 homes ordering the event, but does anybody know the full equation for working out the buyrate, e.g. X buys / Y homes = ?.?

July 13, 2003

Here's the aforementioned "who draws the most/least" figures:

July 13, 2003

Gee...I wonder if those "-" by Nash and HHH a good or bad thing?

July 13, 2003

R.E. Buyrates:

I know that 1.0 roughly equates to 400,000 homes ordering the event, but does anybody know the full equation for working out the buyrate, e.g. X buys / Y homes = ?.?

I don't know, but I'm guessing that you got the 400K figure from the Wrestling Information Archive website. That's a bit outdated - these days a 1.0 buyrate is around 520,000 buys, according to Meltz.

Nash's numbers are laughable, and should be the be-all and end-all to every debate about him and main events. It's no wonder I give no respect to RAW.

July 13, 2003

2002
Mania (Hogan/Rock, HHH/Jericho): 840,000

2003:

Mania (McMahon/Hogan, Lesnar/Angle, HHH/Booker): 560,000

That sucks.

But, is it really all that shocking? I mean was the most hyped match for Mania in 2002? Hogan/Rock. Hogan and the NWO had just came into the WWE and the wrestling world was buzzing. Hogan's first WM in years and he's facing the Rock. Two of the biggest WWE stars going at it.

What was the most hyped match for Mania in 2003? McMahon/Hogan. A non wrestler fans are sick of against Hogan who fans were getting sick of and they talk about it being 20 years in the making.

And why do I have the feeling Vince will blame this year's low buyrate on Lesnar/Angle. Hmmm. <_<

Recent WWE PPV figures from Observer

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