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CBright7831

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004.

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Guest MikeSC
Today's really proven how delusional Mike really is. Appearantly, Kerry has made a bigger issue out of his religion than Bush. 

He absolutely has. Bush isn't campaigning in churches. Kerry is. Bush doesn't mention his religion constantly. Kerry can't mention his Catholicism often enough.

How many religious talk shows has Kerry been on to campaign? While Bush hasn't been doing that circuit this year because it's locked up, he certainly was in 2000.

Which shows that he proclaims his religion more than Kerry how?

 

As has been stated by others, the only reason it's not a big deal is that, like with Clinton, nobody buys Kerry's religion act whatsoever. It's OBVIOUS bullshit, pandering to black churches.

Every US President for decades has said that in an actual war between Israel and the (grits his teeth), er, Arab factions, that they'd side with Israel.

And Kerry has vowed to smoothe out problems with our allies --- and, love it or not, Israel is the top problem with our allies and has been for years.

 

If you're going to fix the problem, there is only one obvious way to fix it. To do like Clinton and force Israel to capitulate to Palestinians.

Bush's record in regard to Israel is scarier because he hasn't really bothered to make any kind of a peace plan.

He's clearly stated that as long as Arafat is in power there, no peace plan is remotely possible. As World War II showed, making a peace plan with somebody who does not want peace is a waste of time and a disaster waiting to happen.

It's not very public, but you kind of get the impression that he isn't interested in a peace plan, and wouldn't lose much sleep if Israel just went ahead with full-out genocide.

He probably wouldn't. And anybody who studies the problem there likely wouldn't, either.

I'm still sure we'll win here. The only thing that could have shaken my confidence would have been if Bush had dropped Cheney for a new VP when that was rumored for a couple weeks.

Wow, delusion must be nice. Bush dropping Cheney would have been as effective for him as picking Edwards has been for Kerry.

 

Namely, EXTREMELY not beneficial.

Otherwise, the poll numbers, the idiotic debate performance, and the fact that people just don't like war unless there's damn good reason for it. These things will oust Bush.

Bush is leading in almost all of them still.

 

It's a bit late for a Kerry surge now. The polls are understating Bush's support.

-=Mike

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Understating? How so?

The final numbers will show what I mean.

-=Mike

 

So I won't know what you mean till next year?

You might as well explain it now, that long of a wait is unfair.

 

I think you mean the polls honestly don't take into account the turnout for Bush nor do they truly believe undecided voters would pick Bush over Kerry.

 

Am I close?

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Guest MikeSC
Understating? How so?

The final numbers will show what I mean.

-=Mike

 

So I won't know what you mean till next year?

You might as well explain it now, that long of a wait is unfair.

 

I think you mean the polls honestly don't take into account the turnout for Bush nor do they truly believe undecided voters would pick Bush over Kerry.

 

Am I close?

They are understating, HORRIBLY, the GOTV efforts of the GOP. They seem to think that the GOP hasn't learned from 2000.

-=Mike

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Understating? How so?

The final numbers will show what I mean.

-=Mike

 

So I won't know what you mean till next year?

You might as well explain it now, that long of a wait is unfair.

 

I think you mean the polls honestly don't take into account the turnout for Bush nor do they truly believe undecided voters would pick Bush over Kerry.

 

Am I close?

They are understating, HORRIBLY, the GOTV efforts of the GOP. They seem to think that the GOP hasn't learned from 2000.

-=Mike

 

Ok, I'm not up on the lingo. What is GOTV?

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Why did Joe Gibbs keep calling for passes when they were on the GB 45??? Give the ball to Portis for fuck sakes.

 

Mike- Are you still 100% confident?

Absolutely. 52% of the vote. 300 EV.

-=Mike

How did you come to this conclusion? I find it highly doubtful...

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OH: Ohio Poll/Univeristy of Cincinatti (10/27-10/31): Bush 50.1, Kerry 49.2

Quinnipiac (10/27-10/31): FL: Bush +8, PA: TIE, NJ: Kerry +5

NH: WMR/Univ of New Hampshire (10/28-10/30): Kerry 49, Bush 48, Nader 2

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Guest MikeSC
Why did Joe Gibbs keep calling for passes when they were on the GB 45??? Give the ball to Portis for fuck sakes.

 

Mike- Are you still 100% confident?

Absolutely. 52% of the vote. 300 EV.

-=Mike

How did you come to this conclusion? I find it highly doubtful...

It's a hunch.

-=Mike

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QUOTE (jesse_ewiak @ Oct 31 2004, 09:06 PM)

On Kentucky, six weeks Bunning was up by 15. Now I've seen a couple of polls saying the race is tied. 

 

 

So, pointless slander works. Good for the Dems.

 

Dude, Bunning is beating himself. He has done so much dumb shit during this campaign that he has made almost impossible to vote for him.

 

Saying his opponent looks like Saddam's sons?

 

Not showing up for a debate at the last minute and then reading off a teleprompter as he debated via sattelite?

 

Come on, man. Even a diehard partisan can see that the blown lead is his fault.

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And here's a RCP flashback from November 2000:

 

http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/...-EC_ALWAYS.html

 

November 6, 2000

Final RCP Electoral College Analysis:  Bush 446 Gore 92

Bush 51.2  Gore 41.9  Nader 5.8

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup, MSNBC/Zogby and Newsweek have done a nice job closing the polls for Vice President Gore. All three polls now have Gore within two points and supposedly gaining. We'll see Tuesday whether the propaganda campaign to keep Democrats from becoming disillusioned and voting for Nader was successful in diluting the size of the Bush victory.

 

As we have said all along, Gore needed to close to within 2% in our RCP Composites to have a realistic chance to win. He has not done so. (RCP Tracking Composite Bush 47.3 Gore 41.2, RCP National Poll Composite Bush 47.0 Gore 42.8) George W. Bush will be elected President of the United States tomorrow by the American people. But the last minute Gore push in some polls has perhaps given enough liberal Democrats hope to not waste their vote on Nader.

 

The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The media's fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going happen. The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.

 

For those who still maintain Mr. Gore has a chance of winning, consider the scenarios under which this is possible. If Gore does not win Florida (the evidence indicates he will not), he must run the table, taking IL, CA, PA, MI, MN, WI, WA, OR, TN, AR, WV and DE along with his base 92 votes for a 273-265 EC win. It won't happen. Even with a victory in Florida, Gore must win at least 70% of the remaining battleground states to eke out a victory. The truth is that George W. Bush has a better chance of carrying New Jersey and Vermont than Al Gore does of becoming the next President of the United States.

 

When you sift through the haze of polls and media disinformation, the anecdotal facts are clear. Bush and Gore are fighting it out in Democratic Iowa, West Virginia, Minnesota and even Gore's home state of Tennessee. Bush is reaching out to moderate Democrats and independents while Gore is frantically trying to energize his base. The media openly acknowledges Bush's base is more energized and that Gore faces a significant threat from Nader on his left. Yet the pundits still talk as if the election is too close to call and could go either way.

 

On Tuesday night the talking heads will all be abuzz with their exit poll analyses showing how Bush destroyed Gore in the male vote, broke even with women, carried over 40% of the Hispanic vote, and the surprising strength of Ralph Nader. All of this is clear today, but it will take the network exit polls to make it clear to the national press.

 

We continue to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the "tightening polls" may have worked to save Illinois, California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President.

 

that was a little bit off..

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If Gore does not win Florida (the evidence indicates he will not), he must run the table, taking IL, CA, PA, MI, MN, WI, WA, OR, TN, AR, WV and DE along with his base 92 votes for a 273-265 EC win.

 

He lost Tennesse and Arkansas. So what state did he win that made it so close?

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Guest MikeSC
nov01.png

 

Kerry 298

Bush 231

 

There is no fucking way that's happening.

Even more bizarre is that in most polls, Kerry is trailing in FL, OH, IA, NM, and WI.

-=Mike

...Everybody knows you don't take weekend results seriously...

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Survey USA: FL: Bush +1, PA: Kerry +4, OH: Bush +2

 

Rasmussen: FL: Bush+3, OH: Bush+4, PA: Kerry+2, MI: Kerry+4, MN: Kerry +1

 

Strategic Vision ® | 10/29-10/31: FL: Bush +4, OH: Bush +2, PA: Kerry +1,

WI: Bush +2, MN: TIE, IA: Bush +3, MI: Bush +1, NJ: TIE, WA: Kerry +6

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