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Guest Agent of Oblivion

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Guest Agent of Oblivion

I'd like this thread to remain separate from the weekly threads, and involve things that are season-wide, predictions, power rankings, discussion questions, and other shit like that.

 

First question:

 

Who is the MVP thus far and why?

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I think it has to be Peyton Manning. He's got a team that looks to be significantly inferior to last year's team to 9-0 again. And, of course, he's at or near the top of most statistical categories. He's playing better football than I think I've ever seen from him, which is saying something.

 

Honourable mention to Brian Urlacher, Drew Brees and Tiki Barber. Oh, and LaDainian Tomlinson.

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Guest Agent of Oblivion

Peyton came to mind immediately, obviously. Slaps to you for dissing Tomlinson.

 

Edit: At least you came to your senses and edited him in as I posted that.

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I'm very impressed with Brees. I don't think he can be #1, but he is absolutely the difference in New Orleans (that, and getting the steal of the year in Marques Colston). Yardage-wise he's Manning's equal, and he's come up huge in big games with not a ton of resources. I think he would have led the comeback against Pitt had his receiver (Copper?) not fumbled away a great pass for a first down. I love the way Brees just does what has to be done, whether it's an ungainly scramble through a d-line minefield or holding tight till the last second while the pocket collapses around him. He was good in San Diego but he's really, really doing well in New Orleans. Can you imagine what it must be like to have endured so many years of Aaron Brooks and then get this guy dropped in your lap? Euphoria, I'm guessing.

 

Manning obviously has to be in the discussion, but that said, I'll make an argument for Tomlinson. He has really put this team on his back and dragged them through a lot of tough spots, and I can think of no guy I'd rather have as an asset for a first-year QB. He's averaging 2 TDs a game, which is stellar, and he's leading the team in receptions, acting as a perfect safety valve whenever Rivers gets in trouble. One of very few non-QB guys who is actually a threat to win a game all on his own. His resurgence over the past five weeks in particular is the main reason I think the Chargers take the West and maybe even the AFC.

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Tomlison and Manning are the only two worth mentioning for the obvious reasons, unless Brees starts to put up god-like stats in the next seven weeks.

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LT is my current front runner and that's because he is carrying the team more then Manning is for the moment. Not that Manning isn't having yet another fantastic season by his standards, but LT is going to be out of the world as the season progresses.

 

Manning has worked with this core for the better part of multiple seasons (give or take a player here and there) but LT is basically moving things for a rookie QB. That's mighty impressive.

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My argument...

 

WR Marques Colston in New Orleans. He leads the league in receiving yards and is tied for the lead in TDs as a rookie out of a I-AA college that not many people had ever heard of. Even I wasn't as aware of him as I should've been (I'd heard of him but didn't think he'd be the stud he's been).

 

Among players with 40+ catches, he's tied for 3rd with Reggie Wayne in YPC. He's been the biggest reason for the Saints success and deserves his props.

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Marques Colston for rookie of the year. Without him, New Orleans' passing game isn't nearly what it is now as teams could just double Joe Horn all day, but what makes it all move is Drew Brees: YOUR Most Valuable Player.

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Guest Princess Leena

I don't agree with Colston because while his stats are nice, he's boosted them up quite a bit during garbage time. Definitely ROY at this point, though.

 

LT2 is my MVP. Best player in the league. Putting up ridiculous stats. The only argument is how important he is to the Chargers, especially with Turner also looking good when he gets his chance.

 

Peyton is also having a strong year with an undefeated team, but they're not super stats that compare with LT2. I also have to throw McNabb in there. He was an absolute stud the 1st half of the season, and that's with very average WR's. I know the Eagles are only 5-4, but there's only so much DFM can do with a team that doesn't even try to run and blows games in other ways.

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I hate MVP disscusions. Mainly because they all degenerate into what MVP means. I feel like MVP was just a term that was supposed to mean the guy with the best stats, but evolved into the most valuable player for your team. I hate having to make the separation and wish that they would clarify what it meant. That's my two cents.

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I don't agree with Colston because while his stats are nice, he's boosted them up quite a bit during garbage time. Definitely ROY at this point, though.

 

LT2 is my MVP. Best player in the league. Putting up ridiculous stats. The only argument is how important he is to the Chargers, especially with Turner also looking good when he gets his chance.

 

Peyton is also having a strong year with an undefeated team, but they're not super stats that compare with LT2. I also have to throw McNabb in there. He was an absolute stud the 1st half of the season, and that's with very average WR's. I know the Eagles are only 5-4, but there's only so much DFM can do with a team that doesn't even try to run and blows games in other ways.

 

I agree with all of this, which may be a first. :cheers:

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LT's stats are nice, but you have to put them inside of a context: Tomlinson has significantly less to carry than Peyton Manning does.

 

Has anybody watched Philip Rivers play this year? Sure, the "kid" is in his first year as the everyday starter, but to say that Tomlinson is carrying him as though he were a subpar "game manager" is a stretch; he's third in the league with a 100.4 QB rating, with 13 TDs to 3 INTs. The threat of Tomlinson barreling through the line certainly enables that performance to an extent, but the fact that the passing game excels under Rivers also opens up lanes for LT to use for breaking big gains - it's a symbiotic relationship.

 

Compare this with what Peyton Manning has to work with in Indianapolis. Though he has the benefit of two great receivers in Harrison and Wayne, he's putting up the best passing stats in the league with a mediocre running game and an alarmingly bad run defense, the latter of which would presumably contribute to more clock-killing drives and less time on the field for Peyton to accumulate these ridiculous statistics. Manning enables the Colts to be the best offense in the league, despite having a below average time of possession (29:52) with which to work, and has orchestrated a fair number of late-game comebacks already this season.

 

The Colts have had their share of lucky breaks this year, but they're still a 9-0 team and a lot of that has to do with Peyton Manning.

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Not having Luis Castillo and Shawne Merriman in the game kills their pass rush. The Chargers defense is all about stopping the run and pressuring the QB. If they don't do that, their secondary can be exploited.

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Though he has the benefit of two great receivers in Harrison and Wayne, he's putting up the best passing stats in the league with a mediocre running game and an alarmingly bad run defense, the latter of which would presumably contribute to more clock-killing drives and less time on the field for Peyton to accumulate these ridiculous statistics. Manning enables the Colts to be the best offense in the league, despite having a below average time of possession (29:52) with which to work, and has orchestrated a fair number of late-game comebacks already this season.

 

Isn't some of the low TOP on offense accountable to the ability of Peyton and the Colts O to score in quick drives?

 

Against the Bills their scoring drives were; 5:13 in 9 plays, 6:49 in 13 plays, 4:30 in 9 plays.

 

Against the Patriots their scoring drives were; 4:43 in 9 plays, 4:29 in 8 plays, 2:28 in 6 plays, 2:35 in 8 plays, and 2:47 in 8 plays.

 

Against the Broncos their scoring drives were; 8:08 in 14 plays, 6:06 in 11 plays, 1:54 in 6 plays, 1:22 in 3 plays, 3:23 in 8 plays, 3:19 in 7 plays, and 1:47 in 8 plays.

 

Just the past three games, the Colts have had 11 drives that lasted less than 5:00 minutes in length (73% of their scoring drives). This will no doubt cause their own defense to suffer more because it leaves them on the field longer and gives them less time to rest between breaks. If anything, I'd argue that a better run D would make Peyton's numbers even more gaudy than they already are.

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San Diego may not be on the same tier as the Bears or the Ravens, but they're still one of the better defense in the league. And, once again, let's put their performance under some context - they were playing on the road, with key contributors missing from the lineup, against a team that's one of the best offensive teams in the league. Not only that, but Cincinnati was looking at what might have been a must-win situation, with Baltimore pulling away with the division lead.

 

That being said, the San Diego defense was never a factor in my original contention anyway - I simply said that Tomlinson was not single-handedly carrying the Chargers offense and explained it further by pointing out that Rivers is having a damn fine season. That the San Diego offense did so remarkably well on both sides of the ball against Cincinnati further illustrates my point - Tomlinson is not the only threat on that team.

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Rivers is having a damn fine season because he's got the best player in the league in the backfield with him. Without LT, the Chargers are probably 3-6 or 4-5 at best. Leave Brees on the team instead of Rivers and the Chargers are probably still 7-2. Having someone who can run for 2000 yards, catch 80+ passes and score 20-30 TDs in a season makes life a helluva lot easier than it would be with anyone else behind you.

 

It's either Manning or LT, and because LT is on pace for a historic season, he gets the nod.

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If you want to speculate on a team's success with one player conveniently taken away from the lineup, would you mind telling me how the Colts would fare without Peyton Manning?

 

It goes without saying that they'd be 2-7 or 3-6 which is why Peyton already has 2 MVP awards and is working on his 3rd. As I said, if LT ends up with 1800 yards or so rushing, another 600 receiving and 25-30 TDs, Manning CANNOT win the MVP unless the Colts go 16-0.

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Has to be Manning. I fail to see how Tomlinsom is flat out carrying the Chargers considering his backup Turner has filled in admirably from time to time.

 

The Colts are frankly a very mediocre team without Manning. The D is crappy, special teams give up big plays occasionally too. Running game is dubious. Without Manning the Colts would be about 4-5.

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Isn't some of the low TOP on offense accountable to the ability of Peyton and the Colts O to score in quick drives?

 

 

Just the past three games, the Colts have had 11 drives that lasted less than 5:00 minutes in length (73% of their scoring drives). This will no doubt cause their own defense to suffer more because it leaves them on the field longer and gives them less time to rest between breaks. If anything, I'd argue that a better run D would make Peyton's numbers even more gaudy than they already are.

 

Well, your last sentence follows my entire argument - the Colts are last in the league with 73 offensive drives, so it wouldn't take much to assume that a better run defense would equal more drives and, thus, even better stats. The fact that Indy is noticeably behind the pack in total offensive drives (the next teams up the ladder, which are Denver and the New York Jets, have 84 drives) should actually make Peyton's offensive stats that much more impressive, as he's done it in fewer opportunities than most NFL quarterbacks this season.

 

That being said, I don't follow your commentary about drive length at all.

 

For one, using five minutes as a cutoff point is a little strange; what's the average drive length for scoring drives in the NFL? I don't have the official stats but, just glancing at the games from last week, there are a couple of examples where a scoring drive never tops five minutes for both teams in the entire game. The Bears/Giants and Browns/Falcons games, for example, never had a scoring drive that went longer than four minutes, let alone five. I'm not discounting the point, but it would be interesting to see the time averages for other teams as well.

 

Secondly, if we do hold the argument that the Colts have shorter drives than usual, part of the blame for that could actually be placed on the mediocre running game as well. Remember, drive times (and TOP, for that matter) are measured in game clock time, rather than real time - running plays typically correlate the two more closely, while a successful play in the passing game is more likely to stop the clock. The important part is that an offense has successful plays in general that extend a drive further down the field.

 

Let's not forget that, with the exception of an occasional 108 yard run back for a TD, scoring drives are going to yield longer TOP than drives that result in no score. And, when it comes to scoring drives or, at the very least, extending a drive with a first down, nobody is better in football than the Indianapolis Colts. Despite having fewer drives than anybody else in the NFL, the Colts have more first downs per game (23.8) than any other team in the league. They also convert the highest percentage of their drives into scores:

 

Team--Drives--Rush TD--Pass TD--FG--Scores--Score %

IND.....73.......9........18....18....45......62%

SDG.....86......19........14....17....50......58%

CHI.....94.......7........17....23....47......50%

STL.....89.......5........13....23....41......46%

CIN.....93.......9........15....16....40......43%

 

(Note to Al or any other moderator - it sure would be nice to be able to have the tag turned on in this folder, so that we could just

 tag any stats for formatting.)

 

More often than not, they keep their defense off the field by having successful drives, so I don't see how you could argue that Peyton Manning's exception performance on offense somehow makes the Colts defense worse.

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I think the point is that since the Colts offense continues to score in a quick strike fashion, this means more time on the field for the Colts D which would allow longer drives by the opponents' offenses, therefore tiring them out.

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