A discussion a couple days ago prompted the statement that we can not compare Bonds' MVP awards to Ruth, because modern MVP voting did not exist until 1931. This is true. What if modern voting did exist however? I decided to come up with an MVP for each season from 1915-35, the years Ruth was active. My intention is not to demonstrate how many MVPs Ruth should have won, or deserved. Rather it is to predict voting patterns.
With that in mind, a couple notes. One, voters would likely look for a player on a contending team. In an eight-team league, first division (top four) would get the job done. Second, remember that certain statistics such as On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage did not exist. RBIs did not become an official stat until 1920. THE most important statistic of the time was batting average.
1915: Ty Cobb
Cobb won the batting crown by a 37 point margin and stole 96 bases, 45 more than the nearest competitor. His performance kept the Tigers in contention, falling just 2.5 back of the pennant winning Red Sox.
1916: Joe Jackson
Tris Speaker was the dominant offensive player of the season, but would voters go for a player on a sixth place team? Odds are the voting would come down to Cobb and "Shoeless Joe" Jackson. The White Sox finished just two back as Jackson hit .341, a 33 point increase over his previous season. Voters love a step-up performance, so my gut tells me Jackson would take this award.
1917: Eddie Cicotte
The White Sox won the American League by a sizable margin. Cicotte won 28 games and lost 12. His 28 wins were 10 over his previous career high. In addition, Cicotte led the league in earned run average.
1918: Walter Johnson
Here is a tough one. Ruth went 13-7, led the league in slugging and OPS. The problem is that neither hitting statistic existed at that time. Ty Cobb was again the dominant offensive force, but would voters again take a player on a seventh place team? Walter Johnson takes the award for winning the pitching triple crown on a team that finished just four games out.
1919: Ty Cobb
The Tigers went 80-60, and yet another Cobb batting title would prompt the voters. Ruth led the league in OBP, slugging and OPS. The problem is that the Red Sox finished fifth. When the trade occured the following winter, writers were not jumping all over themselves to declare the Sox traded the best player in the league. At the time, observers considered hitting for home runs a foolish endeavour that prized the individual over the team.
1920: Babe Ruth
Three team race between the Indians, White Sox and Yankees. There are three possibilities here. One is Ruth and his 54 home runs. A second is Tris Speaker and his .388 batting average for the pennant winners. A third is Eddie Collins with his .372 batting average and being one of the "clean" Sox. I think 54 home runs is too much to ignore at this point.
1921: Babe Ruth
59 home runs along with a .378 batting average, third in the league.
1922: George Sisler
The St. Louis Browns finished a mere game behind the Yankees. While Ruth fell back to 35 home runs, Sisler hit .420. Voters at the time would have loved batting average. They have never voted for a guy having a down season, no matter how good that down season still is.
1923: Babe Ruth
No contest. The Yankees finished 16 games up, Ruth hit .393.
1924: Walter Johnson
Johnson won the actual MVP award in this season with another pitching triple crown. The Senators won their first pennant this season as well.
1925: Roger Peckinpaugh
With Ruth on the mend the race becomes wide open. Stan Coveleski finished 20-5, and led the league in ERA as the Senators won their second consecutive pennant. Peckinpaugh won the damned thing though.
1926: Babe Ruth
Bounceback season as Ruth hits .372 and leads the league in RBIs by a healthy margin.
1927: Lou Gehrig
The RBI crown gives Gehrig the award here as the voters likely would like to switch up the award here and there.
1928: Lou Gehrig
Again Gehrig would have the batting edge here. Ruth and Gehrig tied for RBIs, but I think Gehrig would have more team credibility that the voters might go for.
1929: Al Simmons
Simmons barely missed a batting crown and led the league in RBIs for the league champion.
1930: Al Simmons
A batting crown, second in RBIs. A note that I would not underestimate the voters giving Mickey Cochrane one of these awards.
1931: Lefty Grove
1932: Jimmie Foxx
1933: Jimmie Foxx
1934: Mickey Cochrane
1935: Gabby Hartnett (NL)
Four for Ruth, best I can manage. You can argue for him getting six or seven. That said, let's see what Win Shares has to say about the best players in each season.
1915: Ty Cobb
1916: Tris Speaker
1917: Ty Cobb
1918: Babe Ruth
1919: Babe Ruth
1920: Babe Ruth
1921: Babe Ruth
1922: Red Faber
1923: Babe Ruth
1924: Babe Ruth
1925: Al Simmons
1926: Babe Ruth
1927: Babe Ruth
1928: Babe Ruth
1929: Al Simmons/Jimmie Foxx
1930: Lou Gehrig
1931: Lefty Grove
1932: Jimmie Foxx
1933: Jimmie Foxx
1934: Lou Gehrig
1935: Arky Vaughan (NL)
1. Raw drafts Brian Kendrick and Paul London
This draft harkens back to the memorable NFL draft of 1976 when the Minnesota Vikings drafted the entire offensive line of the University of Oklahoma with their first pick. It was a brilliant move then and a brilliant move now.
2. Smackdown drafts Kenny Dykstra
Good move drafted a pick here with a lot of upside. Kenny's name has a 2:0 K/BB ratio, a great sign for an up and coming young prospect. However, Dykstra leaves trails of tobacco juice in the outfield and some of his ideas come well out of left field. Injuries are a concern.
3. ECW drafts Viscera
Poor pick here from the ECW brand. Just like Big Val E. Puccio and Sal E. Graziano, Viscera will show ECW why big fat f*cks in wrestling don't age well, if at all.
4. Raw drafts The Sandman
The Sandman's 4-9 record looks unimpressive but his caliber of competition has been strong and he did win at Wrestlemania. If the Sandman can kick his smoking and drinking habits, he might finally realize the potential we all saw back in Joel Goodhart's Tri-State promotion years ago.
5. Smackdown selects Ryan Leaf
Awful. Awful pick. What the hell are they thinking?
6. ECW drafts the Miz.
He's still better than Justin Credible.
7. Raw drafts Daivari.
Raw must now decide whether to develop Daivari as a wrestler or as a manager. His wrestling skills are solid enough presently but scouts worry that his clothesline is too long and big-league wrestlers can make him swing and miss with it too often. As a manager, Daivari could not handle the Great Khali and one of my correspondents says, "how can he manager when he can't even manage him?" Yeah, I've since fired that guy.
8. Smackdown drafts the Major Brothers
Oh c'mon now. You really expect me to care? I'm getting something to eat.
9. Raw selects Willie Regal
Solid pick. His father Steven was a big star in World Championship Wrestling last century, and if William can tap into those bloodlines he can go far.
10. Smackdown selects Victoria
I'm going to dip into serious mode here a second. Melina is the top ladies' heel on Raw. Allowing Victoria to move to Smackdown where she can fill the same role is beneficial for all involved.
11. Raw selects Jillian Hall
This is why ECW skipped, because you can find better talent on the indies. Remember when we heard WCW was hiring 10-20 women and we all laughed at the utter stupidity?
Oh yeah, something smart alecky to say. Screw it. I've honestly NEVER seen this woman on tv.
12. Smackdown drafts Eugene.
Eugene? That's retarded. Good athlete but not much upstairs. Kind of like Kyle Drabek.
13. ECW drafts Johnny Nitro
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Monday I attended the show live in Wilkes-Barre, PA. I've been busy recently so I have been unable to post my thoughts in full until now. I have the show recorded on DVR but I haven't watched it yet. Therefore my conception of what I watched might be slightly different than what aired on television.
Dark match: Lance Cade/Trevor Murdoch d. Cryme Time. Good little tag match.
All of the matches were good save Candice vs. Krystal. Benoit/Lashley was fun, and there was some pro-Benoit sentiment in the arena. John Cena got his fair share of boos but there were mostly Cena supporters. Honestly, I think Cena gets booed more because it's the cool thing to do than anything he really does. The Hardy Boys were both quite over.
We got Snitsky, the hometown product. Snitsky got quite a few cheers and certainly the Miz was not going to steal his thunder. The reverse-decision was nonsense though. Here in the Pocono Mountains, you're allowed to continue beating on your opponent. It's kind of a reward.
Overall, considering appearances by Roddy Piper and Dusty Rhodes, I feel like I hit the jackpot in getting this show in my area. A tremendous night of wrestling overall.
A couple of ground-rules I'm working on for the upcoming tournament.
1. DH Rule: The NCAA, along with nearly all baseball leagues apart from the National League, uses the designated hitter. I'm thinking of adopting that for this tournament. Obviously it's bound to create a stir particularly with some regionals that have four non-DH clubs.
2. Home Era: Usually when running tournaments I would have the eras "normalized" for era, meaning if you played at the 1911 Philadelphia Athletics, you were playing in the 1911 American League. This time, ALL games will be played in 2006 terms. Deadball era teams will have to adjust to the modern era.
3. Time Frame: In doing my simulation, I am going to run each regional one at a time. This makes it easier for me since I can focus on just four teams. When that is completed however, games will be posted together. Each regional contains six games with a seventh if necessary. My presentation would run seven days. Each day results of one game from each regional would be posted.
Any questions/comments?
Last year I ran a tournament of the greatest teams in MLB history. The '95 Cleveland Indians prevailed with a win in the finals over the '39 New York Yankees. I quite liked that tournament, and with the College World Series nearly upon us I'd like to try it again. The format is fairly simple. The 64 team field is divided into 16 four-team brackets. Each bracket is double-elimination. The 16 winners advance to Super Regionals, which are best-of-three affairs. The eight winners advance to the College World Series, but we'll have a different name for that.
I don't have the full brackets worked out, but here are the groupings I've worked out so far. We're taking the Regionals at face value this time, and trying to group teams mainly by geography.
BRONX Regional: '98 Yankees, '61 Yankees, '12 Giants, '54 Giants.
BROOKLYN Regional: '41 Dodgers, '55 Dodgers, '27 Yankees, '77 Yankees
QUEENS Regional: '69 Mets, '86 Mets, '39 Yankees, '53 Yankees
BOSTON Regional: '12 Red Sox, '46 Red Sox, '67 Red Sox, 2004 Red Sox
PHILADELPHIA Regional: '50 Phillies, '80 Phillies, '29 Athletics, '11 Athletics
CHICAGO Regional: '06 Cubs, '84 Cubs, '19 White Sox, 2005 White Sox
LOS ANGELES Regional: '63 Dodgers, '78 Dodgers, 2002 Angels, '98 Padres
OAKLAND Regional: '74 Athletics, '88 Athletics, 2002 Athletics, 2003 Giants
ST. LOUIS Regional: '34 Cardinals, '42 Cardinals, '67 Cardinals, '82 Cardinals
CLEVELAND Regional: '95 Indians, '54 Indians, '75 Reds, '40 Reds
PITTSBURGH Regional: '09 Pirates, '79 Pirates, '70 Orioles, '24 Senators
DETROIT Regional: '68 Tigers, '84 Tigers, '92 Blue Jays, '94 Expos
KANSAS CITY Regional: '85 Royals, 2001 Mariners, '82 Brewers, '65 Twins
ATLANTA Regional: '98 Braves, '57 Braves, '48 Braves, '14 Braves
HOUSTON Regional: '98 Astros, '99 Rangers, 01 Diamondbacks, '95 Rockies
MIAMI Regional: '97 Marlins, '04 Devil Rays, '32 Yankees, 2004 Cardinals
Any suggestions/comments?
Who were the best team in the history of the St. Louis Browns? Most fans would assume the 1944 club. That team won the only league championship in the club's history. A better choice however would be the 1922 club. Contrary to what you might think, the Browns were not always non-contenders. In 1922, the Browns finished 93-61, a scant game behind the champion New York Yankees. The Yankees that season traded for Joe Dugan mid-season. That trade, coupled with the NY Giants' midseason trade for Hugh McQuillan, prompted protests that New York teams could buy their way to a pennant. Some things never change.
In addition to holding a better record, the 1922 team played in a tougher league than the '44 club. The 1944 Browns benefitted from World War II, which depleted Major League rosters. Not many fans would recognize Stan Spence, Nick Ettel or Johnny Lindell. Those players finished third, fourth and fifth in OPS in the AL. The leaders in OPS in 1922, by comparison, included Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, George Sisler, Cy Williams and Harry Heilmann. Clearly more talent existed in the league in 1922. But what about that pennant? Honestly, would the 1944 Browns have won the pennant had they faced the 1922 Yankees? Vern Stephens was a superstar, but the rest just doesn't compare to Babe Ruth, Wally Pipp, and the Yanks' excellent pitching staff that year.
Talent wise, the Browns of 1922 had some excellent players. Hall of Famer George Sisler enjoyed his greatest season, hitting .420 with 42 doubles, 18 triples and 51 stolen bases. In the process Sisler struck out a scant 14 times. Young second baseman Marty McManus hit .312 with 11 home runs, and led American League second basemen in OPS. Outfielder Ken Williams slugged .627 with 39 home runs. The Browns led the league in runs scored. On the pitching side, ace Urban Shocker won 24 games. The Browns finished second in runs allowed, behind only the Yankees.
George Sisler missed the following season however, and the Browns never recovered. Urban Shocker and Pat Collins found their way to the Yankees' dynasty, and Hank Severeid was traded to the Washington Senators. Still, for a couple seasons in the '20s the Browns were one of the best teams in the league.
May 12, 2007
Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies: Citizens Bank Park
-When it comes to geography, nothing beats Citizens Bank Park for an out-of-towner. PA Turnpike to I-95, and then north to the stadium. You go around Philadelphia rather than through it, and traffic is not bad at all. Compare that to New York City, where congestion begins about 30 miles away and gets progressively worse from there. Parking is expensive ($10) but convenient. The park is extremely easy to access from I-95.
-I brought along three friends, and all were impressed with the park. There is hardly a bad seat in the place. We sat 400-level but behind home plate with a great view of the field. There's a secret to attending baseball games. Your best option for viewing the action is anywhere between third and first base. You get better perspective there than sitting five rows past the outfield fence.
-Every time I see the Phils live they explode. 11 runs in this outing. They scored 10 when I saw them in 2006, and 12 the previous time in 2005.
-I left during the rain delay in the seventh. Delays get harder to wait out when you're making day trips from two hours out. The concourse however becomes absolutely impossible to navigate. It will take you a half hour to get around the stadium, at least.
-You honestly can not beat Citizens Bank Park when it comes to ambiance and amenities. Concessions are expensive but not outrageous. $11 will get you a BBQ pork sandwich, a diet coke, and an autograph from Greg "The Bull" Luzinski.
-One actual baseball note. Why teams will run on Shane Victorino I will never understand.
May 13, 2007
Columbus Clippers @ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees: PNC Field
-The International League gives you the opportunity to see some fun players. Some are guys who should be in the majors (Colter Bean). Some are guys who could've made it with a bit of luck, but are still worth watching (Jim Rushford). And there are some who could not make it in the Majors. Chris Michalak is 36 years old. He's gotten 191 MLB innings, produced a 4.70 ERA (average for his run-scoring environments), but can never stick with a club. The reason is simple. He throws an 81 mph fastball. I love watching him pitch though. He's not masterful like Jamie Moyer. He just throws strikes that get hit right at guys. And he works fast. Hitters have trouble adjusting to his slow stuff and by the time they do, it's time for the flame throwing reliever. On this night he managed five shutout innings, leaving after 53 pitches. I figure his team didn't want to push him as he just returned from a quad injury. I get the feeling watching him that he could be Chris Hammond.
-One hour into the game, we were in the top of the fifth. The game lasted 2:50. That should give you an indication of the relative quality. Chris Booker pitched two innings for the save. Booker throws 95 mph but it's straight and he has no secondary pitch. It took Booker 54 or so pitches to get those last six outs. Compare that with Michalak. Both teams combined for 14 walks, and five errors. Just horrid, horrid baseball.
May 14, 2007
Same teams, same field.
-Same game really except the Yankees won a blowout. The lack of competition made the slow pace more painful. This game took three hours, ending at 10pm. When you get out and hit road construction right off, gah! Especially when your schedule has you out the door at 7am the next morning.
-Mike Bacsik pitched for Columbus. Around the twelfth batter I noticed he had thrown first-pitch strikes to two batters. That's a recipe for disaster. Sure enough, Bacsik surrendered three home runs in the fourth. Bacsik is a good pitcher, throws strikes and flyballs. Sometimes that will get you killed though, as it did this night. Honestly, the Clippers are the Washington Nationals' farm team. If these guys can't make the Nats, how good can they be?
-Two years ago (May 12, 2005), I saw the Reds and Phillies play. Dave Miley was the Reds' manager and D'Angelo Jimenez their starting second baseman. Fast-forward, Miley is managing Scranton and Jimenez is playing for Columbus. During a break in the action Miley (coaching third) and Jimenez (playing third) were seen conversing. It's good to see some old partnerships come up again.
The buzz around Scranton is that Roger Clemens is scheduled to start on Memorial Day. Whether that is for the AAA club or the big club is yet to be seen. I don't have that game, so not seeing Rodge won't bother me. In fact, it would be fun to see Clemens skip Scranton just because of the hype he's received.
Next game is Sunday, Reading against Portland. Ryan Madson is pitching rehab.
My mission this season is to watch five different Phillies teams. Within range are the major league Phillies, the Reading Phillies (AA), the Lakewood Blueclaws (Low A) and the Williamsport Crosscutters (Short Season A). The AAA Phillies play in Ottawa, but they'll play road games in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Lakewood is 2 1/2 hours away, but a free day and the promise of a 70 degree, sunny day near the shore provided more than enough temptation to make the drive.
FirstEnergy Park in Lakewood is easily the nicest minor league park I have ever seen. The main seating area is spacious, plenty of seat and leg room. The concourse is entirely open with a full view of the park from concession areas. Prices are reasonable. Reserved Seats are $9, parking is $3 and concessions are not tremendously overpriced. The same owner is building the park for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, and the design for that stadium looks similar. As if a baseball team wasn't incentive enough, the new park is absolutely going to blow away the park in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
The game was my first taste of baseball in the Sally League. In lower-level baseball, you will tend to see a few more miscues and mistakes. The players are still learning on the job, after all. The highlight of the game involved the Blueclaws employing the delayed double-steal. Quintin Berry stole second base and Julian Williams stole home. Michael Dubee walked two in the seventh however, and the Blueclaws fell to the Hagerstown Suns 7-6. It was a quality game, well worth the drive. Sometimes you need to get a different look at the game. After the sub-par outings in Scranton, this was saving grace to the baseball soul.
All that said, there's a reason I don't like to drive in New Jersey. The Garden State Parkway is elusive and if you miss it, you find yourself in Staten Island. At $6, that's an expensive wrong turn. I got lost twice finding the ballpark.
I'm sure a lot of Yankee fans are anxious for the arrival of Phil Hughes. Seeing him pitch in Scranton, I honestly can not say I witnessed anything impressive. Hughes gave up five runs in five innings, two walks and one strikeout. I wouldn't have considered him notable if not for the name. That said, it was one start, it was cold and most of the game was played in a light rain. I don't trust performances in these conditions. For what it's worth, Hughes throws a low-90s fastball.
The game ended after seven innings due to rain. The SWB Yankees now go on the road for a week and a half, and my next live game is not for thirteen days. The next games are against the Ottawa Lynx, the new farm team of the Philadelphia Phillies.
You want boring baseball? Come see the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees. The Yankees as a successful organization preach plate discipline throughout their system. Last night some poor defense led to a five-run third inning from the Richmond Braves, and the Braves added two more in the fourth. With the game effectively out of reach at this point, you hope to see the teams play to the end in a crisp manner. To say these teams limped to the finish line is an understatement. To give you an idea of the fashion of the game, the Yankees batted 42 times and just eight of them swung at the first pitch. When it is in the neighborhood of 35-40 degrees out, you have little patience for wasted time.
Phil Hughes tonight.
One of the troubling aspects of professional sports in the last twenty years ago is the rush for profits. Inevitably it would filter down to the minor leagues, as operators realize there is more money out there. It is great for the bottom line and well-heeled fans, but for the average fan it creates a more sterile environment. Last year you could go to a Red Barons game, buy a ticket at the window and sit up close. This year the team has sold out the entire lower deck for season tickets. With so many tickets sold in advance, the team has no need to offer giveaway items. At the concessions, more prepackaged food (and more expensive at that). You go into the park and you watch a game, but you don't feel a part of it anymore. And really, with all the money coming in it's hard to blame them. But it makes me less enthusiastic to attend games. I don't know if it's the extreme cold or the pace, but these games have not been fun at all.
As some of you might know, I have a side engagement scoring baseball games for a company called Baseball Info Solutions. I score occasional games in Scranton, mark hit locations and trajectories, and send them in via computer afterwards. I get to watch the game from a good vantage point for free and I get some money on the side. This is my third year. The first two years Scranton was the AAA affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies. This year however Scranton is now the affiliate of the New York Yankees. The transition of teams comes with higher attendance, as there is simply more interest in this region for the Yankees.
* I joke that Yankee fans are obnoxious. Some are, some are not. Honestly, you get unbearable dopes in nearly every large baseball crowd. This game, four guys sat two rows behind me, consumed large amounts of alcohol and proceeded to make a show of themselves heckling the players. ALL game. It really gets on your nerves after a while. There's no respite.
* The weather is absolutely brutal. Game time temperature was 35 degrees, easily the coldest professional game I have ever attended. You can stand that kind of weather if you dress for it, which I did. After three hours though, the cold digs into you. It snowed about three times during the game, never sticking to the ground but creating a nuisance. The wind picked up at times, and in the configuration of the stadium it swirls.
* Even though I watch a lot of games, my scouting eye is not discerning enough to reveal much more than the statistics. I can tell you that Garrett Olson at one point retired seven straight batters on fly balls. Olson is just 23 and has struck out over a batter an inning in the minors while walking 70 and giving up just 13 home runs in 220 career innings. In my view, he is one of the unheralded pitching prospects in baseball.
* Something was missing overall. My enthusiasm just wasn't there for this game, and I wasn't sure if it was the loudmouths, the team or the weather. There are few legit prospects on the Yankees' farm club behind the rotation, and the Norfolk Tide had even less. I want to do less AAA games this year and maybe hit some other local teams (Harrisburg, Reading, Sussex County, etc.).
Recently an ESPN Sportsnation poll stated that approximately 83% of respondents do not believe Tim Raines was a Hall of Fame caliber player. This is extremely unfortunately. Tim Raines was not only a Hall of Famer, but if left out he would clearly stand as the most deserving player left out. On statistics alone, he rates higher than Mark McGwire. In making this argument I am going to attempt to avoid bogging down the argument with too many sabermetrics. Runs Created Above Average and WARP3 might view Raines as deserving, but they are not going to convince the casual fan. My goal is to convince the casual baseball fan that Raines deserves the Hall.
Tim Raines' stat line is not convincing at first glance. A .385 On Base Percentage is good but not among the greats. .425 is quite pedestrian for a slugging percentage. Delving into Raines' value requires more work. Start with his stolen bases (808, 5th all time). The four players with more steals are all in the Hall, and Vince Coleman is the only non-Hall of Famer among the top ten. Of those ten, Raines was caught stealing the least, only 146 times. In fact, Raines' stolen base percentage of 84% is the greatest stolen base percentage of all time. Raines reached base almost 4,000 times in his career, good for 38th all time. When he did reach base, which was often, he was absolute terror on the basepaths. He's 46th all time in runs scored. 32nd in walks.
Tim Raines vs. Jim Rice
Jim Rice seems like an inexplicable Hall candidate. Let's compare the two. Raines played in over 400 more games, collecting more runs, hits, doubles, triples, steals, walks, and less strikeouts and double plays. Those are counting statistics so maybe that is unfair. Raines' OBP is 33 points higher. Rice played in eight All-Star games, Raines played in seven. Rice played left field and DH'ed in Fenway Park, while Raines played left field in Stade Olympique.
But Rice's argument is all about peak. In 1978 Rice won the MVP award, hitting .315 with 46 home runs and 139 RBIs. That is impressive. Compare that with Raines in 1987. Raines hit .330, had a .429 OBP (59 points higher than Rice), walked 90 times, hit 18 home runs, scored 123 runs, and stole 50 bases in 55 tries. Rice was a feared hitter? Raines was intentionally walked 26 times, 14 out of the leadoff slot. In fact, Raines was intentionally walked more than 10 times in a season four times. Rice was intentionally walked ten times in his best season. What all this indicates to me is that managers saw Rice as a power threat, but one they could beat. Raines? No way. (In fact, Raines' prolific on base tendencies earned Tim Wallach 123 RBIs and a 4th place MVP finish.)
Tim Raines vs. Lou Brock
Brock is seen as a good Hall of Famer. 3,000 hits, held the record for stolen bases until Rickey Henderson. Draw up the list, and Raines is clearly a superior player. Raines stole 130 less bases, but was caught 161 less times. Raines had a higher batting average, higher slugging percentage, and a MUCH higher on base percentage. Raines had 400 less hits but over 500 more walks. More impressively, Raines actually appeared in more All-Star games.
Win Shares
Skip this part if you don't believe in the stat at all, but you may find this enlightening. Tim Raines has 390 career win shares. Every player with 400+ win shares is in the Hall of Fame. Two players with more win shares than Raines are out. One is Tony Mullane, who racked up wins pitching in the inferior American Association in the 1880s. The other is Bill Dahlen, an unheralded infielder of the turn of the century. There are 70 players with more than 363 win shares, and all but two who are eligible are in. That's rare company, and Raines is smack in the middle of it.
I hope if you were unconvinced, you are now. If not, I'd like to hear from you.
Listening to sports talk radio, the only baseball discussion occurring right now regards the Hall of Fame. Invariably, someone will mention that Joe Dimaggio was not elected on the first ballot This is true, Dimaggio received only 44% of the vote. However, two key facts are missed.
1. That ballot was the 1953 ballot. Dimaggio retired following the 1951 season. The 1953 ballot, submitted in December '52, was the FIRST election since Dimaggio retired. I've searched some sources and I can not find whether the five year rule was in place. Bobby Doerr garnered a handful of votes and he retired the same year. It is worth noting however that Dimaggio under today's system would not gain eligibility to the Hall until 1957, two years after he was elected.
2. The Hall of Fame at that time contained a huge backlog of eligible players. It is easy for a worthy player to gain induction today. This year in a good crop, there are 27 players total, three whose numbers merit clear induction, and another 8-10 who could claim HoF worthiness on a good day. It is relatively easy for voters, allowed up to ten choices, to choose the best players and induct them. In 1953, 83 players received at least one vote. Do you know how difficult it is to reach a consensus with the vote spread so widely? What's more, over 40 of those not elected would eventually become Hall of Famers. Dimaggio didn't get snubbed because he was somehow undeserving. Two players who retired in 1951 made the Hall. Dimaggio got 44%, Bobby Doerr got 1%. The process was to blame.
I'm posting this here because I didn't feel like beating a dead horse in the MLB thread. There is a legitimate argument that Bagwell is not only Hall of Fame worthy, but he is the best first baseman in the history of the National League. Blasphemy? Check out the leaderboards. Minimum 5000 Plate Appearances for rate statistics.
DOUBLES 2B
1 Mark Grace 511
T2 Cap Anson 488
T2 Jeff Bagwell 488
4 Jake Beckley 435
5 Andres Galarraga 428
6 Keith Hernandez 424
7 Jim Bottomley 419
8 Todd Helton 411
9 Steve Garvey 409
10 Charlie Grimm 394
HITS H
1 Jake Beckley 2763
2 Cap Anson 2710
3 Mark Grace 2445
4 Steve Garvey 2443
5 Jake Daubert 2326
6 Jeff Bagwell 2314
7 Charlie Grimm 2297
8 Andres Galarraga 2273
9 Bill Terry 2193
10 Keith Hernandez 2156
HOMERUNS HR
1 Jeff Bagwell 449
2 Willie McCovey 439
3 Andres Galarraga 388
4 Gil Hodges 369
5 Orlando Cepeda 331
6 Johnny Mize 315
7 Eric Karros 282
8 Todd Helton 281
9 Fred McGriff 269
10 Ted Kluszewski 257
INTENTIONAL WALKS IBB
1 Willie McCovey 248
2 Jeff Bagwell 155
3 Todd Helton 146
4 Orlando Cepeda 130
5 Keith Hernandez 127
6 Mark Grace 115
7 Will Clark 112
8 Steve Garvey 108
9 Andres Galarraga 105
10 Fred McGriff 99
ISOLATED POWER ISO
1 Todd Helton .261
2 Johnny Mize .258
3 Willie McCovey .244
4 Jeff Bagwell .244
5 Fred McGriff .227
6 Dolph Camilli .220
7 Gil Hodges .215
8 Andres Galarraga .211
9 Orlando Cepeda .209
10 Will Clark .204
OBA OBA
1 Todd Helton .432
2 Dan Brouthers .418
3 Jeff Bagwell .408
4 Johnny Mize .405
5 Roger Connor .397
6 Cap Anson .397
7 Bill Terry .393
8 Dolph Camilli .390
9 Keith Hernandez .386
10 Elbie Fletcher .384
OPS OPS
1 Todd Helton 1.027
2 Johnny Mize .983
3 Jeff Bagwell .948
4 Dan Brouthers .942
5 Bill Terry .899
6 Willie McCovey .893
7 Dolph Camilli .890
8 Roger Connor .885
9 Fred McGriff .882
10 Will Clark .880
OWP OWP
1 Dan Brouthers .772
2 Johnny Mize .759
3 Roger Connor .717
4 Will Clark .705
5 Jeff Bagwell .704
6 Willie McCovey .702
7 Todd Helton .689
8 Cap Anson .677
9 Bill Terry .674
10 Dolph Camilli .671
RBI RBI
1 Cap Anson 1748
2 Jeff Bagwell 1529
3 Jake Beckley 1455
4 Andres Galarraga 1389
5 Willie McCovey 1345
6 Jim Bottomley 1315
7 Gil Hodges 1267
8 Steve Garvey 1246
9 Johnny Mize 1158
10 Orlando Cepeda 1150
RCAA RCAA
1 Dan Brouthers 789
2 Jeff Bagwell 680
3 Roger Connor 667
4 Cap Anson 659
5 Johnny Mize 638
6 Willie McCovey 536
7 Todd Helton 465
8 Bill Terry 425
9 Stan Musial 399
10 Keith Hernandez 371
RUNS R
1 Cap Anson 1549
2 Jeff Bagwell 1517
3 Jake Beckley 1491
4 Roger Connor 1336
5 Dan Brouthers 1229
6 Mark Grace 1179
7 Andres Galarraga 1161
8 Fred Tenney 1156
9 Bill Terry 1120
T10 Jake Daubert 1117
T10 Keith Hernandez 1117
RUNS CREATED RC
1 Cap Anson 2047
2 Jeff Bagwell 1768
3 Roger Connor 1725
4 Jake Beckley 1685
5 Dan Brouthers 1652
6 Willie McCovey 1403
7 Mark Grace 1392
8 Johnny Mize 1372
9 Andres Galarraga 1338
10 Todd Helton 1306
RUNS CREATED/GAME RC/G
1 Dan Brouthers 11.84
2 Roger Connor 10.04
3 Todd Helton 9.96
4 Johnny Mize 9.51
5 Cap Anson 9.50
6 Jeff Bagwell 8.11
7 Dolph Camilli 7.71
8 Bill Terry 7.65
9 Willie McCovey 7.08
10 Will Clark 7.08
SECONDARY AVERAGE SEC
1 Jeff Bagwell .449
2 Todd Helton .439
3 Willie McCovey .418
4 Dolph Camilli .408
5 Johnny Mize .400
6 Fred McGriff .372
7 Gil Hodges .357
8 Roger Connor .342
9 Will Clark .334
10 Dan Brouthers .332
SLG SLG
1 Todd Helton .595
2 Johnny Mize .577
3 Jeff Bagwell .540
4 Dan Brouthers .524
5 Willie McCovey .515
6 Fred McGriff .512
7 Orlando Cepeda .508
8 Bill Terry .506
9 Jim Bottomley .505
10 Will Clark .505
Whether or not Bagwell is the best, he's in some select company.
Tony Gwynn- Since World War II, only Ted Williams hit for a higher batting average than Tony Gwynn. Gwynn hit .338 over his career, and .368 over a five year stretch from 1993-97. Eight batting titles makes Gwynn as sure a candidate as anyone in the history of the balloting.
Cal Ripken- What surprised me in looking up the statistics is that Cal doesn't appear on many lists of shortstops in terms of percentages. His case is based largely on longevity. Nothing wrong with that, as Cal's peak was plenty good too. Ripken won two MVPs and hit more home runs than any shortstop in history.
Mark McGwire- We all know McGwire's candidacy comes down to a moral choice and there's really no arguing that. This is where I stand and I respect where you stand for the time being. What I would address is the notion that McGwire was a undeserving player except for his late home run surge. McGwire was the percentage leader amongst first basemen in home runs prior to 1998. He ranked eighth in OPS, Offensive Winning Percentage and Runs Created per game, and second in Secondary Average. McGwire walked nearly as often as he struck out. Yes, he probably used steroids, but he was a Hall caliber player before 1998.
Bert Blyleven- The sabermetric darling of the Hall ballot. I think Blyleven's big problem is that he had his great seasons early and then stayed around as an above-average pitcher for a long time. I'm not going to slog through the stats because the arguments have been presented before. Let me just state that if Blyleven had 13 more wins, this wouldn't even be discussed.
Alan Trammell- Trammell and Ripken were roughly contemporaries. Ripken outslugged Trammell .447 to .415. Trammell had a higher career OBP however, .352 to .340. Ripken's career ERA+ was 112, Trammell's was 110. Now, remember that Trammell stole 236 bases to Ripken's 36, largely offsetting the edge in extra bases. Trammell had a better range factor at shortstop and won more gold gloves. Ripken lasted two years longer than Trammell. Ripken's considered an automatic inductee, while Trammell fell below 20% of the vote. Now ask yourself, was Cal Ripken really THAT much better of a player than Alan Trammell?
Andre Dawson- Poor OBP be damned. Dawson hit 438 home runs, stole 314 bases and was a GOLD GLOVE center fielder in his prime.
Goose Gossage- If you are going to elect relievers, you need to elect the Goose. Now that a standard is established thanks to Bruce Sutter, I think Gossage will earn induction (but not until next year).
We've got a couple of Phillies' fans on this board. Instead of clogging the MLB thread in Sports, I figured I would post my thoughts here, and maybe we'll run with this throughout the offseason. What do the Phillies need to do to improve this offseason? I'll address the trouble spots.
1. Third Base
Abraham Nunez hit .211/.303/.273 this season in 322 at bats. That performance is a big reason why the Phils failed to reach the postseason. You can take that kind of performance from a slick fielding utility infielder, but it is unacceptable for a regular starter at any position. The problem the Phillies face is that the market is barren as far as infielders go this offseason. It looks like Aramis Ramirez will be available, but he will be expensive, he's streaky and his plate discipline is an issue. This is a place where the Phils might be well served to trade for a team's extra third baseman, such as Josh Fields (White Sox) or Mark Teahen (Royals).
2. Bullpen
Right now the Phillies' pen shapes up like this...
Closer: Tom Gordon
Setup Man: Geoff Geary
RHRP: Ryan Madson
LHRP: Matt Smith
The Phils have some options including Eude Brito, Clay Condrey and Brian Sanches. Brito's future in the majors is in the bullpen, and it is time to find out if he can play or not. Condrey's good as the last man in the bullpen who you can easily option back to AAA if you need the spot. Sanches had a great year in AAA, but I'm not certain that he is an MLB caliber reliever. Fabio Castro will probably end up in AA Reading for more seasoning. One option could be Yoel Hernandez, who has an excellent slider but missed most of the season due to injury.
There are several good options on the free agent market. David Riske has pitched seven seasons with a 123 ERA+ to show for it. Justin Speier has developed into one of the game's best middle relievers since he left Colorado three years ago. Chad Bradford's groundball tendencies would be a good fit in a hitters' haven like Citizens Bank Park. Boston reliever Keith Foulke also might be worth a flier. He had a poor year, but few free agents have his ceiling. Among the lefties, the top choices are Jamie Walker, Ray King and Steve Kline. Steve Kline is a very attractive choice. He's not only a gritty, dirtbag type of player, he's also a local product who hails from Sunbury, PA.
The Phils will be in good shape if they can sign one of those guys, and great shape if they get two.
3. Starting Pitching
So far the Phillies can count on Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jon Lieber to return next season. Jamie Moyer has a mutual option of that the Phillies should exercise their end. Gavin Floyd is a potential option, given that he is still only 23 years old and improving. In this market, you can't count on stardom. The only pitcher I would comfortably throw big money at is Jason Schmidt (or Mike Mussina, if the Yankees' decline his option). The best thing here is probably to find an innings eater who can keep the Phils in the game. Potential targets include Miguel Batista (useful due to his ability to convert to relief), Tomokazu Ohka, or Jeff Suppan.
4. Catching
There are no free agent catchers better than Carlos Ruiz, so Ruiz should be given every opportunity to win the starting job. Ruiz is a line drive hitter with an excellent arm behind the plate. Chris Coste is a capable backup who can also play the corners. Given Coste's versatility, it would be wise for the Phils to grab an extra backup. Gregg Zaun or Robert Fick would be good options here.
5. Right Field
Neither Aaron Rowand nor Shane Victorino hits quite well enough to play in a corner. It might be time for the Phils to finally indulge in Trot Nixon, settling him in a platoon with Jeff Conine (assuming he remains in Philly). As always, there are several outfield options for a team who can think creatively. Roward would be good trade bait to fill any of these five spots.
In any case, this should be an interesting offseason.
SS- Jim Fregosi
CF- Alex Ochoa
2B- Alfonso Soriano
1B- Norm Cash
RF- Leon Roberts
LF- Gil Hodges
C- Jason Varitek
3B- Billy Ripken
P- Brad Radke
What kind of lineup is that? If similiarity scores have merit, it is a similar lineup to one posted by the Philadelphia Phillies down the stretch. Similarity scores seek to compare two players' statistics and measure their comparability. A score of 1000 would indicate two players who are exactly alike. Scores under 900 indicate players who are not very similar. Bill James developed the concept as a way of judging Hall of Fame arguments. Thanks to spreadsheets and computers, statisticians can instantly compare thousands of players to determine which players are MOST comparable. Baseball-Reference.com has taken the concept further, using similarity scores to measure players at specific ages. Miguel Cabrera is currently most comparable to Hideki Matsui. But if you compare him to other players when they were 23, Henry Aaron appears at the top of the list (as he has the last three years). This is a good omen for Cabrera's career.
Looking at a list of players comparables can give us an idea of what to expect from a player's career. A player with a lot of All-Stars and Hall of Famers is a good bet to continue to have a Hall of Fame career. Some players might have a mix of HOFers, and guys who flamed out early in their careers. If no players similar to a certain player produced much after that point in their careers, we would expect caution. With that in mind, let's take a look at the 2006 Phillies still under contract, and see what we might find.
Understand that when I look at comparables, I am looking at what they did AFTER the age of the player to that I am comparing. Also, Similarity Scores are NOT era adjusted.
C: Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz has only played 69 games in his career, so there is no comp list available. A list of players who played 69 games at the age of 27 would likely contain plenty of scrubs, but that's not entirely fair. You just can not draw a good list with too little data. The same holds true for fellow catcher Chris Coste. Free agent catcher Mike Lieberthal's best comps are Jason Varitek and Terry Steinbach. On average, Lieberthal's top ten comps played two more reasonably productive seasons.
1B: Ryan Howard. Howard's best comp is Norm Cash, an intriguing choice. Ryan Howard at the age of 26 hit 58 home runs. Norm Cash hit .361 with 41 homers, a huge fluke season later attributed to corked bats. Cash produced well into his late 30s hitting 20-30 home runs a season in an era where that reached the top ten.
2B: Chase Utley. Utley's best comps are Alfonso Soriano, Jeff Kent, Marcus Giles, Vinny Castilla and Pedro Guerrero. All of Utley's comps had huge careers with the exception of Giles, who still has time to rebound from a dismal 2006.
SS: Jimmy Rollins. Rollins' best comps are Jim Fregosi and Alan Trammell. Trammell had a great career. Fregosi flamed out early, but not before the Angels dealt him for Nolan Ryan. Rollins more than any other player has a big boom/bust quotent in his comp list. Along with Ryne Sandberg and Lou Boudreau, it includes weak hitters like Zoilo Versalles, Frankie Crosetti and Granny Hamner.
3B: Abraham Nunez. Nunez's best comp is Billy "F.F." Ripken. Ripken was an awful hitter. The only player on Nunez's list to hit above league average was Dave Anderson, who had 84 at bats left. The Phils desperately need an upgrade here.
LF: Pat Burrell. Burrell's best comp is Gil Hodges, a perennial Hall of Fame candidate. With respect to Hodges, this says more about why he isn't a HOFer. Most of Burrell's comps had 5-7 more years left, hitting about 10% above league average. I doubt that's worth $13.5 Million a season, but the Phils can live with that.
CF: Shane Victorino. Alex Ochoa, a player probably seen as an also-ran but was also a terrific fourth outfielder for a few years. Ochoa played five more years hitting league average. With Victorino's defense, that's a big plus.
RF: Aaron Rowand. Carl Everett. Fortunately this measures production and not attitude. It's difficult to get a read on Rowand's comp list because there are many current players on the list. Most of the others were league average hitters who played 5-6 more years.
SP: Brett Myers. Myers best comp is Brad Radke, who went 94-85 over the next eight seasons. Frank Viola is the best player on Myers' list, Sammy Ellis is the worst. No Hall of Famers, but a few All Stars.
SP: Jon Lieber. Lieber's best comp is Kevin Tapani, a player who finished 9-14 for the 2001 Chicago Cubs and then retired. Second is Shane Reynolds who didn't pitch past 37, third is John Burkett (25-17 over two years), and Charles Nagy (retired). Jamie Moyer is seventh on the list, and no other pitcher lasted more than two more seasons. The Phils only need one more good one.
SP: Cole Hamels. Hamels' best comp is Floyd Bannister, the father of Mets' pitcher Brian. Floyd pitched league average ball for 14 seasons. There are some good pitchers on the list, no real stars, but that's what you get with 23 starts. This list would look better if Hamels improves next year.
CL: Tom Gordon. Gordon's best comp is Charlie Hough, which seems a little. Gordon throws gas and a wicked curve from the bullpen. Hough threw a knuckleball. Gordon started and converted to the bullpen. Hough started as a reliever and converted to starting.
I'm surprised the last one is six weeks old already. Damn.
The Phillies' minor league season is over, and I'm mulling over a list of the Phils' Top 20 prospects. Considering prospects from Triple A to Low A is a fairly simple matter. The stats can give you about 70-90% of what you need to know. In Short Season A and Rookie ball though, it's a crapshoot. You've got 18 year old kids in a league too far down to project, along with a sample size too small to trust. You really need good scouts to evaluate prospects at that level. I don't have that luxury. Baseball America though is printing their top 20 prospect lists from each league over the next few weeks. It's a useful guide for getting a start on the lower tier prospects. Five Phillies made the list from the Gulf Coast League.
7. Adrian Cardenas, SS
12. Kyle Drabek, RHP
14. Jesus Sanchez, C
17. D'Arby Myers, OF
19. Carlos Monasterios, RHP
Cardenas has hit but his defense is troubling and his future may lie at another position. Drabek's highly touted but his makeup is questionable. Sanchez and Monasterios I know little about besides the fact that neither has gone 20/20 in the majors or posted a .400 OBP. D'Arby Myers was one of the top hitters in the GCL, but his BB:K ratio is poor. I know little personally about their long term prospects, so I defer to Baseball America. I wouldn't switch these guys around unless I had overwhelming evidence to do so.
EDIT: The NY-Penn rankings are out, and no Phillies made the list. RHP Edgar Garcia is the only person on that club who really inspires immediate notice. The South Atlantic League rankings place Carlos Carrasco fifth (the top pitcher), Matt Maloney 19th and Josh Outman 20th.
I picked up Out Of the Park Baseball a few weeks ago, a sim game that allows you to pick up any year in baseball history. One thing I've wanted to do is replay the Phillies' history from 1901 to the present. I don't know if I'm that nuts, but the idea pitiqued my curiosity enough to check out the Phils at the turn of the century. Reviewing that team revealed a few interesting things not just about the team, but about baseball in general at that time.
A few terms I am using in the stat line. WARP stands for wins above replacement player, a Baseball Prospectus stat. PRAA is pitching runs above average, created I believe by statistician Pete Palmer. When reviewing the stats, keep in mind the context. Batters actually hit for a higher average in 1901, .267 compared to .262 last year. The league slugging average however was a meager .348. Teams scored MORE runs in 1901, chiefly because teams made three times as many errors as they do today. That is why Earned Run Averages are much lower.
Catching
C Ed McFarlane (.285/.326/.356, 4.9 WARP, 10 win shares)
The Phils carried three catchers, Ed McFarlane, Klondike Douglass, and Fred Jacklitsch. All three were decent catchers at some point in their careers, although McFarlane was the best of the lot. These days, the rare team that carries three catchers does so in the event that they find themselves stuck without a catcher in a game. The Phils only changed catchers mid-game five times all season. Douglass was primarily a bat off the bench, and possibly a platoon partner for McFarlane. Catching was an extremely demanding position at that time, and catchers needed almost as much rest as pitchers.
Infield
1B Hughie Jennings (.262/.342/.354, 2.4 WARP, 8 win shares)
2B Bill Hallman (.184/.236/.236, 2.8 WARP, 5 win shares)
SS Monte Cross (.197/.281/.236, 3.3 WARP, 7 win shares)
3B Harry Wolverton (.309/.356/.369, 6.0 WARP, 15 win shares)
Hughie Jennings is the big name, a Hall of Fame player coming to the end of his career. Jennings was a great shortstop for five years with the Baltimore Orioles in the 1890s, and that combined with his career as a manager of the Detroit Tigers put him in the Hall. Jennings was an average hitter at this point, but he adequately replaced Jimmy Slagle, who performed poorly over the first two months. Wolverton was the best hitting infielder of the bunch, back when third base was more of a defensive position. Cross and Hallman were absolutely pathetic at the stick. Cross had some plate discipline but no pop. Hallman could bunt for outs.
Outfield
LF Ed Delahanty (.354/.427/.528, 11.1 WARP, 33 win shares)
CF Roy Thomas (.309/.437/.334, 8.0 WARP, 24 win shares)
RF Elmer Flick (.333/.399/.500, 11.0 WARP, 30 win shares)
Two Hall of Famers, and Delahanty's one of the all time greats. Philadelphia from 1891 all the way through the mid-teens sported an absolutely spectacular outfield. They started with Delahanty/Billy Hamilton/Sam Thompson. When Hamilton left they brought in Roy Thomas, when Thompson left they got Flick and then John Titus (and later Gavy Cravath), and when Delahanty left they found Sherry Magee. Delahanty was a great slugger. Flick was a fantastic contact hitter with speed. And Roy Thomas was one of the most unique players in baseball history.
Roy Thomas has the biggest runs to RBI ratio in the history of the game. He did not hit for a great average (.290 career), had absolutely NO power (7 career home runs), and he wasn't a great basestealer (244 career steals was NOT a notable total at that time). What Thomas did was walk, and he walked a TON. Thomas led the National League in walks for seven out of eight seasons. Six times Thomas reached base the most times in the league, and twice he led the league in OBP. Purely on the strength of his OBP, he was one of the greatest leadoff hitters of all time.
Bench
IF Shad Barry (.246/.294/.298, 1.7 WARP, 4 win shares)
OF Jimmy Slagle (.202/.277/.273, 1.5 WARP, 3 win shares)
C Klondike Douglass (.324/.371/.370, 2.8 WARP, 7 win shares)
C Fred Jacklitsch (.250/.328/.333, 1.8 WARP, 4 win shares)
2B Joe Dolan (.081/.128/.081, -0.3 WARP, 0 win shares)
2B Bert Conn (.192/.250/.231, 0.1 WARP, 0 win shares)
OF George Browne (.222/.263/.278, 0 WARP, 0 win shares)
It is important to note that teams did not construct rosters the way they do today. There were no organized minor leagues at the time, so teams simply carried promising prospects on their big league rosters. Bench players were those not good enough to play every day. Of this bunch, Dolan was cut shortly into the season, and Jimmy Slagle was released in late June. Slagle went on to become part of the Cubs' dynasty, although the Phils had a great left fielder of their own of that time in Sherry Magee. Shad Barry came in and played all over the field to spell the regulars. As I will note later, even pitchers were rarely pinch hit for. A pitcher would bat for himself even with his team down a run in the 8th inning. This all meant very few in-game substitutions.
Rotation
Red Donahue (20-13, 2.59 ERA, 27 PRAA, 24 win shares)
Al Orth (20-12, 2.27 ERA, 31 PRAA, 29 win shares)
Bill Duggleby (20-12, 2.88 ERA, 15 PRAA, 22 win shares)
Doc White (14-13, 3.19 ERA, -7 PRAA, 16 win shares)
Happy Townsend (9-6, 3.45 ERA, -3 PRAA, 8 win shares)
Jack Dunn (0-1, 21.21 ERA, -10 PRAA, 0 win shares)
Those top three I doubt you have heard of. Pitchers who straddled the line between the 19th and 20th centuries tend to be overlooked by most baseball fans. Donahue, famous for his curve, compiled a 164-175 career line, his below .500 career due mostly to an awful 17-60 campaign with the St. Louis Browns from 1895-97. Al Orth was an entirely average pitcher who had two great seasons in 1899 and 1901. Orth was the premier change-up pitcher of his time. Bill Duggleby as well experienced his one great year in 1901. Doc White was merely a 22 year old rookie in 1901, but went on to win 189 games and a World Series with the Chicago White Sox in 1906. Happy Townsend was also a rookie that season. After the season, Townsend jumped to the Washington Senators of the upstart American League. As far as dumb moves go, that might take the cake. Townsend went 23-69 over four seasons with the Senators.
The trouble with evaluating pitchers of this era is that I suspect a great deal of pitching greatness was determined by a team's defense. In 1901, Tom Hughes of the Chicago Orphans (now Cubs) led the league with 6.57 strikeouts per nine innings. With the league as a whole striking out less than four batters a game, that was a lot of balls in play. Remember pitchers pitched a ton of innings and pitched quickly, and they did not have to bear down on pitchers like today.
Jack Dunn pitched only two starts before moving on to the Baltimore Orioles of the American League. Finished as a quality pitcher, Dunn became a utility player and prolonged his career for a few seasons. After the Orioles moved to New York and became the Highlanders, the Orioles were revived as a minor league franchise in the International League. Dunn became the owner/operator of the club, and was the man who scouted Babe Ruth into organized baseball.
Bullpen
None. The Phils made 17 pitching changes the entire season, and when they needed a new pitcher they simply called on one of their other starters. The Phillies' starters completed 125 of their 140 starts, and only once did they use three pitchers in a game. Bill Duggleby appeared in six games in relief, Doc White four.
Pitchers' Batting
Al Orth (.281/.303/.352)
Bill Duggleby (.165/.193/.200)
Red Donahue (.097/.128/.115)
Doc White (.276/.297/.357)
Happy Townsend (.109/.123/.156)
Jack Dunn (1 for 1, 1 BB)
With hitting numbers like these, no wonder why these guys batted on their own. Al Orth and Doc White were just as capable as the pinch hitters.
Manager
Bill Shettsline. Shettsline had an innocuous career as manager, guiding the Phils from 1898-1902, finishing as high as second. He never managed elsewhere or played MLB himself.
Outcome and Aftermath
The Phils finished 83-57, good for second place in the league, 7.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Phils would use a great deal of their players in the ongoing war between the American and National Leagues. Monte Cross, Ed Delahanty, Red Donahue, Al Orth, Elmer Flick, Harry Wolverton and others jumped to the American League. The Phils fell to 7th place. Curiously, the American League did not raid the Pirates' roster. The Bucs won 103 games and finished 27.5 games ahead. The lack of a pennant race further boosted the American League, and the National League sued for peace, creating the Major Leagues as we know them.
Occasionally I take friends along to minor league games, and along with conversations via AIM I run into occasional misconceptions regarding minor league baseball. I thought it would be a nice time killer to quickly run over what every level of the minors entails.
AAA: Triple A baseball actually showcases relatively few prospects. The main reason is that AAA is the one level where there is an inordinate amount of pressure to promote a player. No one clamors to call up a player to patch a hole in Reading, but if Philadelphia needs help, the player comes up. The average AAA player is around 27 years old. Usually they are relatively experienced players who are finished developing, and while they are not budding superstars they play a very good brand of baseball. Players make relatively few errors compared to other minor league levels.
AA: I think AA showcases the most prospects. You might see more guys at lower levels, but at that point you don't know how they will pan out as prospects. The average player in AA is around 26 years old. Players are a lot like AAA in status but not quite as good. You'll see more errors and questionable play. Double A is usually considered the proving ground. It's been said that players who reach AA get to stick around in organized baseball. So you see many more experienced players at AA and AAA than you do at lower levels. For that reason players are more accustumed to breaking pitches, teamwork and the like. Some pitchers who get by at throwing junk find that hitters are not fooled here. Likewise, runners who stole lots of bases solely by their speed get thrown out a lot more often.
High A: The Florida State, California and Carolina Leagues. Players here are much younger and inexperienced. While the average Reading Phillie is 26 years old, only three players on the entire Clearwater roster are 26 or older. The average player is around 23 years old. Here you have a crop of players around 23-25 on their last gasp of trying to make something of themselves in baseball. You can usually tell a prospect simply by his age. If he's 22 or younger, he's worth keeping an eye on.
Low A: Much like high A except that the players are a level younger and less experienced. The average player is around 22 years old. In High A you might see an occasional veteran. There are NO veterans in Low A, unless a player is on a rehabilitation stint. Low A is the first level where the true prospects really begin to emerge.
Short Season A: This level is where most college draftees begin their professional careers, and where truly good younger players come up. The average player is around 21 years old. You often see players learning new positions often here. For that reason, play is sloppier. Both games I have witnessed at this level included multiple fielding miscues. Players have few professional stats at this level so it is difficult to separate the true prospects from the field unless you have a keen eye for talent.
Rookie: Just as the term would suggest, this is where most high school and International talent debuts. The average player is 20 years old. Rosters are much deeper here and in Short season, as teams can carry more than 25 players and choose which 25 to activate for that game (as I understand it). The quality of play here is almost certainly lower than that of Division I Collegiate Baseball.
There are other Rookie leagues such as the Venezuelan Summer League and Dominican Winter League. Most teams have strong scouting interests in those countries, and the leagues serve as a way for teams to sort out their international signees.
I hope this is informative, and I'll be happy to answer any questions.
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/15267563.htm
From Todd Zolecki's column this morning.
I could've used more details of how the Phils' bench hampered them, but this is absolutely correct. On Friday, the Reds intentionally walked Ryan Howard three times because there was no one on the bench. Right now the Phillies are employing a four man bench and those four players had a combined 91 career at bats coming into this season. Chris Roberson just can't hit (although he's useful as a defensive replacement and pinch runner).
Eight relievers is overkill. Fabio Castro is a useful mop-up man who will take the ball every day. Brian Sanches isn't going to win games with his pitching and it's useless to keep him around for the heck of it.
A friend asked me the other day if Ryan Howard would make the Hall of Fame, and I said he does not have a prayer. My friend was stunned, and I explained why. In the history of baseball there has been just ONE player who became a regular at the age of 25 and went on to have a Hall of Fame career (Sam Rice). Look at the list of players above. Ed Mathews was 21 when he hit 40+ home runs. Dimaggio was 22, and Klein, Kiner and Banks were 24. Jim Gentile was 27, and he's the odd man out.
It's not that Gentile was a bad player. Gentile got a late start because he came up in the Dodgers system when they were overstocked with outfielders. Gentile was finally traded to the Baltimore Orioles before the 1960 season. (On a fun side note, one of the players the Dodgers acquired in this deal was a career minor leaguer named Bill Lajoie. Lajoie is now a senior executive in the Red Sox' front office.) Gentile hit 21 home runs his first year, and 46 the next (an expansion year). The raw stats make the next years look worse than they really are. After 1961, the majors took steps to reduce offense. Gentile was still a good hitter for several seasons. A trade to the Astros and their spacious dome harmed his raw numbers moreso, and Gentile retired in 1966. I doubt Ryan Howard will have the same issue with playing environments.
Last night I drove down to Reading for the Phillies/BaySox game, and I had an opportunity to watch Gio Gonzalez pitch. Sometimes the statistics don't tell you everything about the player. Other times they're dead on. Gonzalez is one of those pitchers who appear exactly as the stats would have you believe. Gonzalez has absolutely fantastic stuff. His control wavers however, as he's walked about 4.5 batters per nine innings. Even though he walked just one batter in his start, he started the game by working all three batters in the first inning to full counts. The control problems are probably the root cause of his home run rate as well. He'll work a batter to a 2-0 or 3-0 count, has to groove a fastball, and with Reading being a good hitters' park, the results are devistating.
Gonzalez is just 20 though, and there are few pitchers his age that are better. He's got plenty of time to progress, and if his control comes around he's going to be a good one.
Jeremy Slayden vs. Josh Kroeger
The Phillies' farm system is so devoid of hitting that any hitter with a pulse garners attention. Jeremy Slayden is such a case. Slayden was drafted out of college last season and is currently enjoying a fine season at Low A Lakewood, hitting .301/.370/.511. (This is the standard Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Pct. line.) Meanwhile, Josh Kroeger is having an awful season at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, hitting just .223/.262/.348. Kroeger is entirely off the radar at this point. Both are corner outfielders. Slayden has better raw stats, but it is MUCH easier to hit Low A pitching than to hit AAA pitching.
The catch is that both players are almost the same age. Slayden was born in July of 1982, and Kroeger in August of the same year. Slayden is actually older despite playing in a league three levels lower. We have a little tool handy called MLEs (Major League Equivalencies). MLEs take a player's current statistics and adjust them to a Major League context. Most minor leaguers look awful but that's ok. If they were good enough to be in the majors they would be in the majors (for the most part). This allows us to directly compare Kroeger and Slayden. They're the same age and they play the same position. Who's better?
MLES
Slayden: .206/.249/.350
Kroeger: .199/.232/.310
Slayden comes out ahead, even with the difference in levels. The point is however that we need to keep things in perspective. Slayden's having a nice year but he's 23 and a LONG way from the majors.
As some of you might know, I have a part time gig scoring minor league games for an independant statistics company called Baseball Info Solutions. It's not well paying but it allows me to see more games than I would otherwise. This week I saw an entire four game series between AAA teams Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Richmond. The Richmond Braves are an affiliate of the Atlanta Braves and the Barons are of course an affiliate of the Phillies.
Tuesday: Red Barons 6, Braves 1
The are times the stat sheet gives you an indication that it might be a fun week. The Red Barons came in at 56-46 (.549), while the Braves came in at 38-63 (.376). Richmond is the worst offensive team in the International League, carrying a team slugging percentage of .343.
-The Braves had one chance of coming back at this. Down 5-1 in the 7th, the Braves placed runners on the corners with one out. Tony Pena popped out foul however, and Brayan Pena tried to catch Joe Thurston napping. B. Pena was thrown out at home. That's a good move down a run or tied, but down four it is a foolish gamble.
-Scott Mathieson dominated, giving up just three hits and one run over eight innings and striking out seven. I don't think there's a Phillies prospect who has taken a bigger step forward over the last year. Mathieson has obvious MLB talent, and it's a matter of time before he gets there for good. The question is whether he starts or closes. He's easily a guy who can turn into the next Jon Papelbon.
Wednesday: Red Barons 4, Braves 1
Sometimes something little can make a big difference in a game. The Braves got two quick outs in the third before Michael Bourn doubled. Joe Thurston singled, moving Bourn to third. Chris Roberson followed with a single of his own that plated Bourn. The ball was fielded deep in the hole by Braves' 2B Cesar Crespo however, and Thurston was dead between second and third. The Braves botched the rundown, and Thurston and Roberson ended up on third and second. Carlos Ruiz followed with a home run, and it's 4-0 Barons. In three pitches the Braves went from "should have been out of the inning" to down four runs.
That came back to haunt the Braves in the ninth, when they scored a meaningless run that would've tied the game had they executed the rundown.
Thursday: Red Barons 7, Braves 6 (12 Innings)
The Red Barons have given us a great season, with four really good starters right now. This time we got starter number five, Jeremy Cummings. The Braves were nice enough to oblige with a mediocre starter of their own, so this got brutal in the early goings. The lead changed about five times in the early going. 1-0 Braves. 1-1 after the first inning. Braves scored one in the third, Red Barons followed with two. Braves score two again in the fourth to retake the lead, and the Barons followed up with three in their half. The Braves scored one in the fifth to cut the lead to 6-5. Thankfully the starters came out at that point and things settled down.
Until the 9th. Mikey, who sits two rows behind us and has grown up at the park, says "I think he's gonna get shelled," referring to closer Brian Sanches. Some kids are too smart for their own good. That is going to be how my own grandchild acts someday. Leadoff hitter Gregor Blanco kicked off the inning with a 12 pitch walk. Tough break, but he earned it. Blanco stole second on a close play, drawing some vehiment disagreements. I thought Blanco was safe, but I was 120 feet away and I have bad eyesight. Cesar Crespo followed with a sac bunt, and pitcher Sanches tried to get the tough out at third. He didn't have a chance. The next hitter, Michael Ryan, groundout out, scoring the tying run. The Barons escaped with no further damage.
That is where everything got real fun. The umpire booted Carlos Ruiz from the game for arguing balls and strikes. Manager John Russell got tossed and presumably Brian Sanches was thrown out as well. The next half inning saw coach Sal Rende move to the third base coache's box and player Ryan Fleming take over coaching duties at first. (In AAA, the manager occupies the third base box. This was common in the majors before teams started employing ten coaches at a time.) The second batter, Michael Bourn, is informed that he too has been tossed. The only plausible explanation is that he was the same height as Carlos Ruiz. I do not usually take heat with the umpires but at this point it had become ridiculous. Our first base coach had to pinch hit.
Dusty Wathan came in to catch, and Josh Kroeger was used earlier as a pinch hitter. That left Juan Sosa as our last bench player. So of course Danny Sandoval was hit by a pitch in the 11th and had to come out. Pitcher Brian Mazone pinch ran for Sandoval, and reliever Ryan Cameron batted for himself. Juan Sosa came in as a defensive sub in the next inning. Ryan Cameron appeared to be in the game as long as possible, pitching three perfect innings.
Wathan hit the first pitch of the 12th over the right-center wall for a game winner. Wathan has won two games with extra inning home runs this year. Wathan has four home runs this year total.
-That was long winded, so let me throw this one out quick. The Braves made five errors, three alone by third baseman Jonathan Schuerholz. You might recognize the name, he's the son of the current Braves' GM. Some at the beginning of the year questioned his promotion to AAA, and suggested it was simply nepotism. Schuerholz has answered his critics by hitting .161/.248/.192 in 79 games. He can't hit for average, can't hit for power, isn't a baserunning threat (four steals in six tries), and apparently can't field. Intangibles? That does a world of good on a 38-67 team. This guy is EASILY the worst player in the International League. His father does him a disservice leaving him out to dry.
Little side note. Some woman asked me if I was a scout. She thinks she can get into professional baseball, and wants to meet Derek Jeter. She also swore she was on her first beer. She probably would have had better luck asking Yankees' first base coach Tony Pena, who happened to be sitting in the next section watching his son play ball. Tony Jr.'s not much of a hitter but good defensively at shortstop.
Friday: Red Barons 7, Braves 3
Brian Mazone isn't a prospect. He has however posted a 9-1 record since being promoted from AA Reading. He doesn't have great peripherals. He just somehow seems to be effective. He also has that one bad inning where he struggles, and the Braves got a run across in the second.
All four games in this series were decided by a home run. Brennan King's two run shot on Tuesday gave the Barons a 3-0 lead. Carlo Ruiz's three run homer was the difference on Wednesday. Dusty Wathan hit a walk-off on Thursday. This time, Joe Thurston hit a two out grand slam in the fourth. The game was 6-1 after that, and the game was never really competitive. The fortunate part was that none of the four games were blowouts. A blowout game is the worst because neither team particularly cares about getting effective pitching in the game.
Sandoval played after nearly being carried from the field the night before. He got the MLB call® right after the game, as did Tony Pena Jr. of the Braves.
Rather than bury this in an old discussion, I figured I would start anew.
Let me reexamine the top 10 as ranked by Baseball America before the season and then I'll hit on the other prospects Pinjockey discusses.
1. Cole Hamels, SP
Cole Hamels had an extraordinary ascent through the minors before struggling at the Major League level. He's struck out a batter an inning though, and control was usually not a problem in the minors. The big thing is that Hamels has reached a career high in innings pitched. Hamels is still on track.
2. Gio Gonzalez,SP
112 strikeouts in under 100 innings for a 20 year old in AA is highly impressive. The home runs as Pinjockey said are high, but Reading's a fairly good home run park. He'd cut that in half in Scranton. Gonzalez needs to cut down on the walks, but he's another top flight prospect still on target.
3. Greg Golson, OF
The best athlete in the system. That would be even more impressive if he could play baseball. This is Golson's second year at Lakewood and he still can't hit. .220 batting average with 92 Ks against 18 walks. Until Golson actually produces, he's not a prospect in my view.
4. Michael Bourn, OF
Bourn's made a hell of an impression in Scranton, hitting three triples, stealing bases and playing great defense, all in his first week. I think he'll cool off as word of his weaknesses gets around. Bourn has great speed and plate discipline. The problem is that he lacks power, and pitchers will challenge him and defenses will play shallow. There's a fine line between great leadoff hitter and Jason Tyner. I think Bourn at minimum is a good 5th outfielder.
5. Scott Mathieson, SP
I don't think the Phils could have asked for a better season so far. Mathieson dominated AA, went to the majors and held his own, and just made a good start at Scranton. He's still just 22, and his fastball sits in the mid-90s. This is a big IF, but imagine a rotation of Brett Myers (25), Ryan Madson (25), Gavin Floyd (23), Cole Hamels (22), Scott Mathieson (22) and Gio Gonzalez (20). That's a ton of young pitching, and I don't think most fans realize how much the Phils have.
6. Dan Haigwood, SP
Traded to Texas for P Fabio Castro.
7. Welinson Baez, 3B
Baez finally hit on his third trip through Rookie ball and kept it up through Short Season A last year. It was a fluke. Baez is hitting .216 in Lakewood with 111 strikeouts in 287 at bats. Not a prospect at this point.
8. Mike Costanzo, 3B
Mike at least has the excuse of skipping a level. He walks, but that's about it. I doubt Costanzo's got much potential.
9. Brad Harman, SS
Harman drew good reviews as part of Australia's entry into the WBC. His power dropped off a cliff though, and he does not look like much. Harman's young though, and given that the FSL is a pitchers' league I would give Harman another season before writing him off.
10. Jason Jaramillo, C
Jaramillo's struggled this year, but given that he skipped high A and that he's a better defensive catcher, it's not as bad as it looks. Jaramillo's probably at least got a future as a backup.
Early reports on Edgar Garcia are encouraging to a point, particularly the 19/1 K:BB ratio. The low K rate worries me slightly, but he is extremely young yet. Jeremy Slayden is a few months younger than Josh Kroeger. Kroeger's in AAA, Slayden's in Low A. Slayden would have to be a hell of a hitter to make up the difference in levels. He's not a prospect. Carlos Carrasco is having an extremely impressive season, and has easily moved into the Phillies' top ten.
I should have included this in my discussion regarding Hall of Fame relievers. How many relievers should go in the Hall? It is my firm belief that relief pitchers are simply not as good as starting pitchers. Why should a mediocre pitcher go ahead of a very good pitcher simply because he was placed in an easier role?
Easier role? Yes, there is a lot of talk placed upon the closer pitching in such a high pressure role, and how crucial he is to a team. The closer is important, no doubt. But the fact is that nearly all closers are pitchers who failed miserably as starting pitchers, if they even held that role. Hall of Fame reliever Rollie Fingers went 7-17 as a starter. Goose Gossage went 9-22. Lee Smith went 0-5 in six starts. Eric Gagne has a 4.68 career ERA as a starter. Mariano Rivera's ERA as a starter was 5.94.
There's an obvious bias at work. Relievers tend to be starters before their prime, and if they were great starters they wouldn't have been moved. Just out of curiosity, I wanted to take a look at starters, as relievers. This is more difficult because great starters in this era almost never make relief appearances. Ace starters in the dead ball era, such as Christy Mathewson and Mordecai Brown, used to double as their teams' relief ace.
David Wells made 171 relief appearances as a reliever. Wells had a 3.23 ERA as a reliever, compared to 4.13 as a starter. Pedro Martinez's ERA in 67 relief appearances is a paltry 2.18. There are a few counter examples. Curt Schilling had a lower ERA in the rotation. Again, there's a lot of statistical noise though.
What amazes me looking at pitchers like Gagne is that more teams do not make relievers out of their failed starting pitching prospects. The Cincinnati Reds just gave up two starting position players largely for bullpen help. Instead of paying top dollar for relievers, why not try to produce some of your own? A guy like John Stephens, ineffective in the rotation, could become the next Stu Miller.
There's room for relievers in the Hall. However, voters must be VERY selective. The current trend of allowing one every few years is wise. It's better to be frugal now than to elect many and make some irreversible mistakes.
