About a month into the season, it's a good time to see how the kids are doing in the minors. Rankings are the preseason rankings courtesy of Baseball America. The letters in parenthesis refer to the league. They run in the following order, from highest to lowest.
AAA: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, International League
AA: Reading, Eastern League
A+: Clearwater, Florida State League
A: Lakewood, South Atlantic League
Short Season A: Batavia, New York-Penn League
Rookie: GCL Phillies, Gulf Coast League
1. Cole Hamels, SP (Age 22)
1-1, 1.77 ERA, 20 1/3 IP, 16 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 9 BB, 29 Ks (A+)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 14 Ks (AAA)
Hamels earned a call to Scranton after a good start in Clearwater, and absolutely steamrolled the Norfolk Tide in his first start. As long as he stays healthy, he is a premium talent.
2. Gio Gonzalez, SP (Age 20)
1-1, 1.48 ERA, 24 1/3 IP, 15 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 28 Ks (AA)
Gonzalez is a lefty on the short side of 6' tall. The usual concerns from scouts are the only mark on his report. His first four starts in AA are about as good as you can get from a 20 year old pitcher. He's bound to have a rough start here and there to drive back his rate stats, but early returns are outstanding. Gonzalez is close to breaking onto Top 50 prospect lists.
3. Greg Golson, OF (Age 20)
.159/.209/.206, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 1 SB (A)
63 at bats, one extra base hit. As Baseball Prospectus noted, "it would be nice if his performance bore the slightest resemblance to what the tools watchers say he can do." Maybe Golson has upside. But there is no way he deserves the number three ranking in the organization, no matter how thin it is. It is still early, but if I do not see results at the end of the year, I am writing him off.
4. Michael Bourn, OF (Age 23)
.230/.269/.324, 0 HR, 4 RBIs, 9 SB (AA)
Bourn's batting line includes three triples, and he has yet to be caught stealing. Bourn is an extremely fast runner with excellent plate discipline. The problem is that he has very little power, and pitchers are not apt to pitch around him when he will not drive the ball. That negates his ability to get on base. Bourn posted an acceptable .348 OBP last season, but that will not propel him to star status. Bourn is good defensively with a great arm, so at minimum he can provide a team with a 5th outfielder.
5. Scott Mathieson, SP (Age 22)
1-1, 4.26 ERA, 25 1/3 IP, 24 H, 12 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 30 Ks (AA)
That K:BB ratio is extremely good, and he does not allow an unusual number of home runs. Allowing twelve runs is more bad luck than anything else. Mathieson's carried this kind of stat line his entire career however. There are several who think Mathieson's future is as a power closer. Since he carried his ratios to AA, he at least has a future somewhere.
6. Daniel Haigwood, SP (Age 22)
1-1, 2.61 ERA, 20 2/3 IP, 17 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 17 BB, 17 Ks (AA)
Seventeen walks?! Ouch. Haigwood's other numbers are very good, but that is a serious red flag. It could be a sample size issue, or an indication of something lurking underneath. We need more data here.
7. Welinson Baez, 3B/SS (Age 21)
.250/.241/.393, 1 HR, 8 RBIs, 0 SB (A)
Yes, Baez's on base percentage is lower than his batting average. He has not drawn a walk in 56 at bats, while striking out 16 times. Baez has tools and had a great year last year after three shots at the Gulf Coast League. I am pessimistic at this point. Baez was a league repeater and lacks plate discipline. He's still got time though.
8. Mike Costanzo, 3B (Age 22)
.263/.310/.450, 3 HRs, 12 RBIs, 0 SB (A+)
Costanzo's numbers are slightly low, but given that it is less than a month in and the Florida State League is a tough hitters' league, it is not a serious problem just yet. Costanzo led Division I baseball in walks last year, so I do not think his plate discipline is an issue.
9. Brad Harman, SS/2B (Age 20)
.217/.286/.261, 0 HRs, 6 RBIs, 2 SBs (A+)
Harman had a great series in the World Baseball Classic for Australia, but has struggled mightily in the Florida State League. The walks are there, I think this is just a case of a slow start.
10. Jason Jaramillo, C (Age 23)
.250/.328/.385, 0 HR, 5 RBIs, 0 SB (AA)
The Phillies' Great White Hope behind the plate. The Phils' skipped a level for Jaramillo, and he's held his own so far in Reading. Considering his primary asset is his defense, this is certainly encouraging.
Mike & Mike this morning discussed pitching candidates for the Hall of Fame. I figured I'd throw in my two cents.
Shoe Ins
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Tom Glavine
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine is often labeled as a guy who is close, but in. He's a dead lock, and it is not even close. Glavine as of this writing has 286 wins. Of the 30 pitchers who have won 275 or more games, 22 are in the Hall, three are still active, and two were 19th century pitchers. That leaves Bert Blyleven, Tommy John and Jim Kaat. Let's stack up the numbers.
Glavine: 286-186 (.606), 3.44 ERA, 120 ERA+
Blyleven: 287-250 (.534), 3.31 ERA, 118 ERA+
Kaat: 283-237 (.544), 3.45 ERA, 107 ERA+
John: 288-231 (.555), 3.34 ERA, 111 ERA+
Two things should come out right away. The first is that Glavine's win percentage is over .600. There is simply no precident for leaving out a pitcher with this many wins AND this high a winning percentage. Also note that Blyleven, who pitched effectively as long, posted nearly as good an earned run average in context.
Pedro Martinez has 204 wins right now. Compare his record to pitchers let in with few wins. The Black Ink Test is a tool that measures how often a player led his league in something. It's a good tool both for measuring players with high peaks, and players from different eras. The average Hall of Fame pitcher has a Black Ink score of 40.
Pedro Martinez: 204-88 (.697), 2.75 ERA, 166 ERA+, Black Ink: 55
Jack Chesbro: 198-132 (.600), 2.68 ERA, 110 ERA+, Black Ink: 27
Dizzy Dean: 150-83 (.644), 3.02 ERA, 130 ERA+, Black Ink: 52
Lefty Gomez: 189-102 (.649), 3.34 ERA, 125 ERA+, Black Ink: 46
Addie Joss: 160-97 (.623), 1.89 ERA, 142 ERA+, Black Ink: 19
Sandy Koufax: 165-87 (.655), 2.76 ERA, 131 ERA+, Black Ink: 78
Dazzy Vance: 197-140 (.585), 3.24 ERA, 125 ERA+, Black Ink: 66
Rube Waddell: 193-143 (.574), 2.16 ERA, 134 ERA+, Black Ink: 46
Ed Walsh: 195-126 (.607), 1.82 ERA, 145 ERA+, Black Ink: 67
All of the above players scored high on the Black Ink test except for Jack Chesbro and Addie Joss. Chesbro won 41 games in 1904, and is essentially in the Hall on that statistic alone. Addie Joss's raw numbers are eye popping, but he was never the best pitcher in the league. Pedro Martinez stacks up favorably with all these players, and his winning percentage and ERA+ are better than any pitcher on the list. In fact, Pedro's ERA+ ranks number one all time, and his winning percentage is second behind Al Spalding among HOF pitchers (And Spalding pitched most of his career in the National Association, which MLB does not recognize in official statistics).
On the Bubble
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
John Smoltz
These pitchers are harder to judge, and even I am not certain of their Hall of Fame qualifications. Mussina's going to have a tricky time because he never won 20 games, and we know voters love those big round numbers. Mussina's won 19 games twice, 19 three times, and 17 twice. One problem is that Mussina's best years were 1994-95, when he missed several starts due to the strike. It is not difficult to think Mussina would have won four games between August 12 and the end of the 1994 season, and just one more game in four starts in 1995. He led the league in wins in 1995.
If you look at Mussina's record, again you see a superior win/loss percentage (.643 in this case). Let's make a comparison for Mussina here. Eleven pitchers have won 225 or more games, not made the Hall, and pitched after 1900 (not counting active players). I will not add another table because frankly, most readers have not heard some of these names. As a group, they had winning percentages between .491 and .577. Their adjusted ERAs ranged from 101 to 118. They scored between 7 and 20 on the Black Ink test.
Mussina blasts them out of the water in win percentage and adjusted ERA. His record there is superior to any pitcher not in the Hall of Fame. The Black Ink test is trickier, because Mussina only scores a 14. But if you move on to the Gray Ink test (which measures top ten appearances instead of just leading a category), Mussina stands out. Only Bert Blyleven beats Mussina in that category, and Blyleven really should be in the Hall as well. Mussina does not have that one outstanding season. But he's clearly superior to any fringe candidate.
Curt Schilling is the opposite. Not great counting numbers, but some tremendous seasons. Just for fun, here's Schilling next to another current pitcher
Curt Schilling: 202-134
Kenny Rogers: 201-134
Of course Schilling's ERA is nearly a run lower and he has about a thousand more strikeouts. What makes Schilling odd is that he also never won a Cy Young award, which you would think is a prerequisite for making the Hall on a short career. I think Schilling's a deserving candidate though, as he scores favorably on all the Hall of Fame standards tests. If he finishes his career with 220-225 wins with his current win percentage, he should be a lock.
There's no really good statistical judge for John Smoltz. Dennis Eckersley reshaped the closers' role. Smoltz was just a closer for a few years. Obviously he was a great closer and deserves some credit for that, but how much? A closer is not as valuable as a 20 win pitcher, and probably not as valuable as a 15 win pitcher. What about 12 wins? Add 36 wins to his total, give him credit for the 15 wins in the postseason, and he's up to around 233 wins. I would not vote for Smoltz just let, but if he reaches 200 wins, then you have a guy who also has 154 saves and an amazing 15-4 record in the postseason. It's hard to go against that.
Others
It is difficult to predict the future of pitchers. Among the top 100 active pitchers in wins, only Andy Pettitte has a legitimate shot at the Hall. There are many pitchers in the sub 100 win club who could make a run, noteably Johan Santana. The problem is there is little difference in the peak values of great pitchers and good pitchers. The difference is how long they last. Many pitchers like Fernando Valenzuela had great peaks, but only had a few great years. Some guys look like HOFers at age 30 and are gone by age 33. But even if you can not identify a single Hall of Famer or even a 300 game winner in the current generation, chances are someone will outlast the pack.
I'll take a look at HOF closers in the future.
Over the last few seasons the Phillies have developed into a perennial contender. From two consecutive 90+ loss seasons in 1996-97, the Phillies improved to an average win total of 85 wins the last five seasons. Despite the growth however, fans grew restless over the lack of a playoff berth. So the Phillies' upper brass did the only reasonable thing. Fire the general manager. Surely a proven baseball man like Pat Gillick would lead the Phillies to a division title, right? Well, sixty-eight games into the season, the Phillies' record stands at 33-35. The Phils have developed mediocracy before, but the Mets' hot streak has landed the Phils 9.5 games out, and seemingly on the brink. So what's gone wrong so far?
HITTING: The Phillies currently rank sixth in the National League in runs scored. This is not normally a poor result, but Citizens Bank Park inflates run scoring. The exact degree of inflation I am unsure of, but it is reasonable to call the offense about average. Looking at run production from each position in the lineup, here's where the Phillies rank by OPS (the sum of On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage).
C: .625 (14th)
1B: .912 (5th)
2B: .871 (1st)
SS: .718 (10th)
3B: .666 (15th)
LF: .909 (6th)
CF: .850 (2nd)
RF: .931 (2nd)
DH: Have not played a DH game
PH: .521 (16th)
Production at second base (Chase Utley), center field (Aaron Rowand and Shane Victorino) and right field (Bobby Abreu) has been excellent. Production from left field (Pat Burrell) and first base (Ryan Howard is good to very good). Production from shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) is fair.
Catcher and third base are the big problems. At catcher we have seen 39 games from Sal Fasano, 25 games from Mike Lieberthal, 14 from Carlos Ruiz, and 4 from Chris Coste. Fasano's production has been surprisingly passable, with a .321 On Base Percentage and .433 slugging percentage. I was honestly expecting to rip Fasano's offense, but it's good. Lieberthal hit poorly, but I expect his averages would improve given time. Carlos Ruiz's 5 for 35 performance and Coste's 2 for 13 drag down the percentages here.
David Bell has gotten the bulk of the playing time at third, and has produced a decent OBP (.335) but only a .383 slugging percentage. That's a bad sign from a righty at Citizens Bank Park. The average at third is dragged by Abraham Nunez hitting .139 in 36 at bats.
That brings us to the pinch hitting. The Phillies rank dead last in the National League in OPS, and given that pinch hitters are often used in key spots in the game, that's an awful mark. David Dellucci is 10 for 37 off the bench, with 4 doubles, 2 triples and a homer. That's quite a few extra base hits, good for a .568 slugging percentage. The rest of the bench has been awful. Abraham Nunez is 3 for 29 off the bench, with one walk. That's 26 outs in 30 plate appearances. Alex S. Gonzalez was 2 for 13 before his retirement. Shane Victorino went 5 for 20, all singles. Nine more batters have combined for a 1 for 20 performance as pinch hitters, the lone mark being a solo home run from Ryan Howard.
The big problem for the Phillies' offense is situational hitting. The Phillies are 15th in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position, 15th in the league. There's little that can be done for that except wait. The Phils do need to add punch to their bench. David Dellucci is a platoon hitter and opposing teams are frequently able to outmanuever Charlie Manuel and bring in their situational lefties.
PITCHING: In short, the rotation has been awful and the bullpen is sensational. The Phillies' starters have compiled a 5.53 ERA, by far the worst in the league. The bullpen on the other hand has produced a 3.18 mark, best in the league. If only they ever got a lead to work with. Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd were awful in their stints, and have landed in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Both walked far too many batters. Ryan Madson, thought to be a rotation prospect, crashed in his rotation try yet remains there due to a lack of other starters. Jon Lieber's awful numbers are the product of a bad April. He's since recovered, but his trip to the DL has forced the Phils to use subpar starters in his absence. Cole Hamels was supposed to provide some help, but he's walked 14 batters in 25 innings and failed to make it past the third inning in his last start. Brett Myers is the staff ace but even he got shelled his last two starts.
The bullpen meanwhile has been outstanding thanks to strong performances by Tom Gordon, Rheal Cormier and Geoff Geary. The other relievers have contributed, and only Brian Sanches and Julio Santana have ERAs below the league average. Both of those pitchers have pitched few innings. Call me crazy, but it is time Ryan Franklin got a rotation spot. The idea of having Franklin was to have some rotation depth. Well guess what. The rotation sucks. Franklin might be a bad pitcher, but there's no way he can make this abomination any worse. Get him in there and try to hold out until Randy Wolf comes back. I know managers hate to mess with the bullpen, but they aren't handing out booby prizes for holding onto four run deficits.
FIELDING: The Fielding Bible rated the Phillies as having the majors' best defense. Given the strong uniform performance of the Phils' bullpen despite average peripherals, I would buy that. The Phils surprisingly are middle of the pack in stolen base percentage. They have only allowed 11 steals all season.
The problem with the Phillies is their awful rotation. Scott Mathieson performed well in a spot start, but I doubt he is a long term solution this season. If the Phillies want to make a realistic run, they need to add a starting pitcher. Whether the cost is worth making a run this season or holding off for a future season with their farm club is up for debate. There is almost no hitting in the system, meaning a trade would likely be pitcher for pitcher. It is easy to trade away the very solution to your problem in that manner. Patience is difficult, but it is probably best for the Phillies to try Ryan Franklin, Randy Wolf, Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez to shore up the rotation. If it fails, look for serious pitching help in the offseason.
My friends regard me as a baseball nut, and for the most part that is true. Name any year, and I can tell you who played in that World Series off the top of my head. Further along however, I fall flat. Ask me who won the National League West in 1979, and I might not remember. Major League Baseball expanded its playoff format in 1969, adding a League Championship series. Most of us remember the great World Series, as they are prevailent, produced on dvd. The LCS however sometimes fades into oblivion. Unless your local team was involved in a memorable series, you may not ever hear about it. Certainly, ESPN Classic's insistance on never showing complete baseball games means some absolute classics are forgotten. Hopefully, this will begin a series of articles about those series. I intend to relive those series, as well as the losing teams involved.
1980 National League Championship Series
Best of Five
1980 Houston Astros
The Houston Astros (then known as the Colt 45s) began as an expansion team in the 1962 season. The 'Stros amased a fine collection of talent over the years such as Joe Morgan, Jimmy Wynn, Larry Dierker and Don Wilson, but could not quite make it to the top of the National League West. Sharing a division with the Big Red Machine will do that. The Astros of course played their home games in the Houston Astrodome. Fans know about the dome and artificial turf, but relatively few fans realize how tough a hitters' park the Dome was. Astros' hitters were perenially underrated, and some pitchers were overrated. The Astros finally broke through in 1980, as we will see.
The Lineup
C: Alan Ashby (.256/.319/.347, 93 OPS+)
1B: Art Howe (.283/.350/.445, 129 OPS+)
2B: Joe Morgan (.243/.367/.373, 115 OPS+)
SS: Craig Reynolds (.226/.262/.304, 64 OPS+)
3B: Enos Cabell (.276/.305/.351, 90 OPS+)
LF: Jose Cruz Sr. (.302/.360/.426, 128 OPS+)
CF: Cesar Cedeno (.309/.389/.465, 147 OPS+)
RF: Terry Puhl (.282/.357/.419, 124 OPS+)
A few interesting players here. Any of the three outfielders could play center, and Terry Puhl in fact did play 30 games in center that season. Jose Cruz is perhaps one of the most underrated players in baseball history. Cruz hit 106 home runs on the road, but only 59 at home. Playing in the Astrodome most of his career cost him perhaps 50 home runs over the years. Cruz certainly deserved more than two All-Star nods. He is not quite a Hall of Fame caliber player, but he's better than Jim Rice, for example.
Cesar Cedeno could be a Hall of Famer. He was a better player than many center fielders currently in the Hall, and might well have been had he not decended rapidly after age 30. Cedeno still played over 2,000 games thanks to an early start, and finished his career with 550 stolen bases.
Joe Morgan left the Cincinnati Reds after the 1979 season, returning to the team that originally drafted him. Morgan remained one of the most disciplined hitters in the game, drawing 93 walks and stealing 24 bases in 1980. Despite a .243 batting average he was one of the more productive second basemen in the league, even at the age of 36.
Enos Cabell on the other hand rated as the player most often criticized by young baseball author Bill James. Cabell hit .276 on the season, at a glimpse an acceptable average. But then you dig in the stat sheet and see a meager 26 walks, almost no power, and he was caught stealing 13 times against 21 successes.
Craig Reynolds' hitting stats are appaling, but it was common for teams in that era to play unproductive hitters at short, preferring defense. Frank Taveras (Mets, 80 OPS+), Larry Bowa (Phillies, 70 OPS+), Tim Foli (Pirates, 73 OPS+), Luis Gomez (Braves, 26 OPS+), Johnnie LeMaster (Giants, 59 OPS+), and Ozzie Smith (Padres, 71 OPS+) comprised some of the league's starting shortstops. When you remember the Padres' trade of Ozzie to the Cardinals for Garry Templeton, consider that Templeton was the only starting shortstop in the league to hit above the league average in 1980.
Ashby of course starred as an announcer for the Astros for several years, and Art Howe went on to become a successful manager in the majors.
The Rotation
Joe Niekro (20-12, 3.55 ERA, 92 ERA+)
Nolan Ryan (11-10, 3.35 ERA, 98 ERA+)
Ken Forsch (12-13, 3.20 ERA, 103 ERA+)
Vern Ruhle (12-4, 2.37 ERA, 138 ERA+)
J.R. Richard (10-4, 1.90 ERA, 173 ERA+)
Joaquin Andujar (3-8, 3.91 ERA, 84 ERA+)
Joe Niekro was in the midst of a late career surge, posting his second consecutive 20 win season. Given his stellar record and the fact that he was a knuckleballer, I think Niekro's mediocre ERA is the result of staying in games longer than most pitchers when his team had a big lead. That's just a guess. Niekro's son Lance currently plays for the San Francisco Giants.
Nolan Ryan remains the game's most overrated pitcher. For all the flack Bert Blyleven receives about not being a winning pitcher, the same tag could be applied to Nolan Ryan, who had a worse win percentage and lower ERA+. Ryan in 1980 had 14 no decisions, of which his team won 11. He did pitch a large number of innings, as did Niekro.
Vern Ruhle's season was entirely a fluke. He never again won more than nine games in a season, and finished his career with a below average ERA. He did however become a successful pitching coach, first with the Phillies and then with the Astros.
J.R. Richard is one of baseball's most tragic cases. Beginning in 1976, Richard ranked among baseball's best pitchers. Despite surrendering over 100 walks a season, he won 72 games from 1976-79. He found his control in 1979 and posted yet another career year. Richard's first half performance in 1980 netted him his first All-Star appearance, a starting assignment to boot. Unfortunately, Richard suffered a series of bizzare ailments that year. Many fans and reporters thought Richard was a lazy player, and that he was loafing. On July 30, Richard suffered a major stroke, requiring emergency surgery. Richard never pitched in the majors again.
Some other intriguing players on the Astros that season included current Padres' manager Bruce Bochy and long time closer Dave Smith, making his debut season.
The Astros ended the regular season in a tie with the Los Angeles Dodgers, necessitating the first regular season playoff in the National League since 1962. (Oddly, of the seven regular season playoffs in N.L. history, the Dodgers have been in five of them). The Astros had held a three game lead over the Dodgers with three to go. However, those three games happened to be against the Dodgers, in Dodger Stadium. The Astros lost all three games to force the playoff. However, the Astros won the playoff easily, 7-1 behind the pitching of staff ace Joe Niekro.
The NLCS
The first two games took place at Veterans Stadium. The Phillies won game one 3-1, thanks to Greg Luzinski's two run home run in the sixth. Game Two saw the Astros and Phillies go into extra innings tied 3-3. The Astros scored four in the tenth, including Dave Bergman's two run triple. The Phillies had a chance to score a run in the ninth, but Lee Elia held Bake McBride at third base.
Games three through five would be played at the Houston Astrodome. Game Three saw the Astros and Phillies trade zeros through ten innings. Joe Niekro pitched ten scoreless innings, striking out two and walking one. Denny Walling's sacrifice fly scored Rafael Landestoy, winning the game for the 'Stros. Game Four saw the Astros take a 2-0 lead into the eighth inning, but the Phils scored three runs. The Astros tied the game in the ninth, leading the game into extra innings for the third straight time. In the top of the tenth, Pete Rose scored on Greg Luzinski's RBI double, and the Phillies went on to win. Rose famously scored on a close play at the plate, knocking down catcher Bruce Bochy. Rose was widely praised for his aggressiveness. What's forgotten is that Manny Trillo followed up with a double that would've scored Rose anyway. But there were two outs, and no tomorrow.
Game five saw the Astros again take a 5-2 lead into the eighth inning. Phillies down three against Nolan Ryan. In the eighth, Rafael Landestoy replaced Joe Morgan at second base, a defensive manuever the Astros made all series. Larry Bowa led off the inning with a base hit to center field. Bob Boone followed with a hard grounder off Ryan's glove, runners at first and second. Greg Gross reached on a bunt down the third base line, loading the bases. Pete Rose followed with a walk, forcing in a run. At this point, Astros' manager Bill Verdon replaced Ryan with Joe Sambito.
If the Astros made a mistake in the series, this is it. Bowa's hit was the hardest hit ball of the inning. Boone and Gross's hits were both infield shots. Rose walked on a full count. The pitch before ball four, which Bowa fouled out, was clocked at 99 mph. I honestly think Ryan came out too soon. Sambito came in to pitch to left handed Bake McBride, who was pulled for Keith Moreland, a righty. There goes the platoon split. Moreland grounded to second, forcing out Rose but scoring a run. 5-4 Astros, first and third for the Phillies, one out.
Ken Forsch came in to replace Sambito. Mike Schmidt struck out in a key spot, leaving two outs. Del Unser bailed out Schmidt and the team, hitting a single to right that scored the tying run. With runners on first and second, Manny Trillo tripled to left, scoring two runs and giving the Phillies a 7-5 lead.
Bottom of the eighth, the Phils attempted to lock down the game by bringing in Tug McGraw. McGraw however, running on fumes, could not get the job done. Two consecutive RBI singles by Rafael Landestoy and Jose Cruz tied the game yet again.
Top of the tenth, Del Unser doubled and Garry Maddox hit a two out double to plate Unser, giving the Phils the lead. Maddox's double was a simple base hit, but Puhl had to dive for it knowing that if it fell in, the Phils would take the lead. The Astros went in order in the bottom of the tenth to give the Phillies the pennant. Noteable about that last half of the inning was Enos Cabell swinging at ball four and flying out to center field for his trouble.
In that five game series, four game went into extra innings. If you watch the Phillies' broadcast, you note Tim McCarver laughing hysterically as the Phillies win the pennant on Maddox's catch. It was an extremely hard fought series, and the Phillies really felt like they simply survived that game, not just won it. In my mind, it rates as the greatest game in Phillies' history, due to its combination of excitement and importance. The Phils would go on to defeat the Kansas City Royals in six games for their first and only World Series championship.
The Astros again reached the postseason the following season. After taking the first two games from the Dodgers, they lost the next three and the series. They lost to the New York Mets in the 1986 NLCS, puncuated by a 16 inning classic game six. Division series appearances in 1997, '98, '99 and 2001 all resulted in losses, giving the Astros seven consecutive playoff series losses. They finally broke that streak in 2004, and won their first National League pennant in 2005.
Three Game series, pitting the 1939 New York Yankees against the 1995 Cleveland Indians.
'95 Indians (Charles Nagy) @ '39 Yankees (Monte Pearson)
'39 Yankees (Atley Donald) @ '95 Indians (Ken Hill)
'95 Indians (Dennis Martinez) @ '39 Yankees (Red Ruffing) (if necessary)
Game 1
'95 Indians 12, '39 Yankees 4
The Indians steamrolled Yankee pitching in the first game of the series. Albert Belle hit two home runs and Omar Vizquel and Sandy Alomar added home runs of their own. Belle has now hit seven home runs in the tournament. Charles Nagy pitched seven innings to improve his record to 3-0, while Monte Pearson drops to 0-1.
'95 Indians 10, '39 Yankees 4
The Indians again crushed the Yankees to wrap up a tournament victory. Ken Hill (2-0) pitched two innings for the victory while Atley Donald (2-1) lasted just two innings in the loss. Albert Belle hit his eighth home run.
Tournament MVP: Joe Dimaggio, 1939 Yankees
Dimaggio hit .386 in 44 at bats with a tournament leading 16 RBIs.
Tournament Cy Young: Charles Nagy, '95 Indians
3-0. 1.29 ERA.
Next round, 16 teams remaining. Each team plays a three game series against one opponent, with the winners advancing. The former team listed in each set gets home field, while the latter team gets home field advantage for the next two games.
1921 New York Giants vs. 1906 Chicago Cubs
'21 Giants 6, '06 Cubs 2
'06 Cubs 5, '21 Giants 3
'06 Cubs 5, '21 Giants 0
1906 Chicago Cubs win series 2-1
1924 Washington Senators vs. 1929 Philadelphia Athletics
'29 Athletics 5, '24 Senators 4
'29 Athletics 7, '24 Senators 6 (10 Innings)
1929 Philadelphia Athletics win series 2-0
1962 San Francisco Giants vs. 1953 New York Yankees
'53 Yankees 2, '62 Giants 1
'62 Giants 6, '53 Yankees 2
'62 Giants 12, '53 Yankees 5
1962 San Francisco Giants win series 2-1
1961 New York Yankees vs. 1939 New York Yankees
'39 Yankees 5, '61 Yankees 0
'39 Yankees 5, '61 Yankees 3
1939 New York Yankees win series 2-0
1980 Kansas City Royals vs. 1980 Philadelphia Phillies
'80 Royals 4, '80 Phillies 3, 10 Innings
'80 Royals 8, '80 Phillies 1
1980 Kansas City Royals win series 2-0
1977 New York Yankees vs. 1975 Cincinnati Reds
'77 Yankees 2, '75 Reds 1
'75 Reds 5, '77 Yankees 4
'77 Yankees 7, '75 Reds 3
1977 New York Yankees win series 2-1
1988 Oakland Athletics vs. 1998 New York Yankees
'88 Athletics 2, '98 Yankees 1, 11 Innings
'98 Yankees 3, '88 Athletics 2
'88 Athletics 10, '98 Yankees 1
1988 Oakland Athletics win series 2-1
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. 1995 Cleveland Indians
'95 Indians 5, '01 Diamondbacks 4
'95 Indians 2, '01 Diamondbacks 1
1995 Cleveland Indians win series 2-0
Bored's recent blog on the 1996 Athletics mentioned the name of Ernie Young, a current mainstay in the minor leagues. His blog got me thinking. I attend Scranton/Wilkes-Barre games regularly, and I see several players who are very good, but lack (or seemingly lack) the ability to play in the Major Leagues. They still provide some value however, and they make minor league games worth watching. Only a handful of the players in AAA are real prospects, after all. I thought I would draw up a list of some of my favorites. The only criteria is that the player should be a AAA veteran, and for the most part a non-prospect.
1. RP Colter Bean, Columbus Clippers.
Free Colter Bean! Bean is a 6'6", side-arming right handed pitcher in the Yankees' organization. Most do not consider Bean a prospect due to his lack of noticeable velocity. He's the kind of pitcher that scouts feel do not adapt to the majors. I regard that as sheer foolishness. Since joining the Clippers in 2003, Bean has compiled a 19-12 record in relief, including a 2.62 ERA and 274 strikeouts in 233 innings. Meanwhile the Yankees sit in the Bronx and wonder why the hell they can not find relievers.
2. OF/1B Jim Rushford, Reading Phillies.
Rushford looked headed to the Northern League before re-signing with the Phillies' organization the last week of March. Unlike Bean, Rushford's failings are pretty apparent. He hits for a high average and has good plate discipline. He does not hit for much power however, only hitting more than 10 home runs once, in 1997. He's a below average right fielder and average first baseman. Most teams do not have a need for that type of player in the majors, but he fits well in the minors.
3. OF Ernie Young, Charlotte Knights
The essential minor league journeyman. Young has hit over 300 home runs between the majors and minors, and won a Gold medal with the 2000 Olympic Baseball team. He could help a major league club in a fifth outfielder's role yet.
4. RP Dan Giese, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons
Giese retired midway through last season for unspecified reasons. I'm glad to see him back. Giese is pure control out of the bullpen. Last season he walked just one batter in 38 innings. This season Giese has come out firing, striking out 17 batters and walking one in 10 1/3 minor league innings. He's a pitcher that could really surprise people, and could grab a spot in the Phillies' bullpen if it struggles this summer.
5. SP Brandon Duckworth, Indianapolis Indians
At one time Duckworth was a prospect. He compiled a 15-3 record for the Red Barons in 23 starts, including 164 strikeouts in 165 innings, with just 40 walks. Then he fell apart in Philly and hasn't been the same pitcher. He's got a name and face that suggest he shouldn't be that good, so it's fun to watch him when he succeeds.
6. 1B Brad Eldred, Indianapolis Indians
Eldred's plate discipline is abysmal. He struck out 157 times last year while drawing just 35 walks. He struck out 148 times in 2004 while drawing 41 walks. If you gave him 600 ABs in the majors, he would absolutely shatter Adam Dunn's strikeout record. The beauty is though that if he gets ahold of one, he can hit it as far as any player in baseball.
7. C Bobby Estalella, whereabouts unknown.
Estalella, due to injuries, will never get his chance in the majors. He was once a young AAA prospect with power and plate discipline, but now he's on the wrong side of 30. It's a shame because his grandfather was an MLB semi-regular who also never got a fair chance.
I'm running a greatest teams tournament on Strategic Baseball Simulator, and I figured I would post the results here. I am running the tournament in the same manner of the College World Series. It is extremely unscientific, so take any results with a grain of salt. The tournament consists of four rounds...
Regionals
Sixteen separate four team brackets. The competition is double-elimination, meaning the losers fall into a second bracket. Teams are eliminated after two losses.
Super Regionals
Eight brackets of two teams each. Best of three games.
Semifinals
This is where the competition reaches Omaha in the College version. Again we have two brackets of four teams each, double elimination.
Championship
Final two teams in a best of three competition.
In order to even things up, I divided the tournament into four eras. 1901-34, 1935-65, 1966-87, and 1988-2005. Each era contains an approximately even number of teams in their talent pool. There have been about 2,100 teams since 1900, and each era contains about 550. (This is the kind of stuff you do to pass time in a boring class). Here are the entrants.
'14 BosN @ '06 ChC
'34 StL @ '32 NYY
'06 Cubs 3, '14 Braves 2
'34 Cardinals 5, '32 Yankees 1
'19 Cin @ '21 NYG
'35 ChC @ '12 BosA
'21 Giants 14, '19 Reds 5
'35 Cubs 3, '12 Red Sox 0
'19 CWS @ '29 PhA
'07 Det @ '27 NYY
'19 White Sox 8, '29 Athletics 3
'27 Yankees 8, '07 Tigers 6
'09 Pit @ '12 NYG
'24 Was @ '11 PhA
'12 Giants 9, '09 Pirates 6
'24 Senators 9, '11 Athletics 4
'50 Phi @ '53 NYY
'57 Mil @ '54 Cle
'53 Yankees 2, '50 Phillies 1
'57 Braves 4, '54 Indians 0
'62 SF @ '55 Brk
'41 Brk @ '46 StL
'62 Giants 10, '55 Dodgers 6
'41 Dodgers 10, '46 Cardinals 8
'65 Min @ '61 NYY
'46 Bos @ '63 LAD
'61 Yankees 7, '65 Twins 5
'63 Dodgers 3, '46 Red Sox 0
'35 Det @ '40 Cin
'59 CWS @ '39 NYY
'40 Reds 3, '35 Tigers 1
'39 Yankees 10, '59 White Sox 5
I'm taking a break from the games for a moment to briefly discuss the managers. Several managers have two teams in the tournament. Walter Alston manages three teams, the '55, '63 and '74 Dodgers. Here are the other multi-team managers.
Sparky Anderson ('75 Reds, '84 Tigers)
Bobby Cox ('92 Braves, '98 Braves)
Alvin Dark ('62 Giants, '74 Athletics)
Tony LaRussa ('88 Athletics, 2004 Cardinals)
Al Lopez ('54 Indians, '59 White Sox)
Connie Mack ('11 Athletics, '29 Athletics)
Joe McCarthy ('32 Yankees, '39 Yankees)
John McGraw ('12 Giants, '21 Giants)
Joe Torre ('98 Yankees, 2003 Yankees)
Top managers in career wins who are not represented.
1. Gene Mauch
2. Tommy Lasorda
3. Clark Griffith
4. Jimmie Dykes
5. Wilbert Robinson
'67 Bos @ '74 Oak
'84 Det @ '80 KC
'74 Athletics 4, '67 Red Sox 3, 12 Innings
'80 Royals 5, '84 Tigers 1
'69 NYM @ '80 Phi
'85 StL @ '70 Balt
'69 Mets 4, '80 Phillies 1
'85 Cardinals 5, '70 Orioles 1
'74 LAD @ '77 NYY
'79 Pit @ '86 NYM
'77 Yankees 6, '74 Dodgers 2
'86 Mets 5, '79 Pirates 4, 14 innings
'68 Det @ '67 StL
'82 Mil @ '75 Cin
'68 Tigers 2, '67 Cardinals 1
'75 Reds 8, '82 Brewers 4
'94 Mon @ '98 NYY
'02 Oak @ '04 StL
'98 Yankees 9, '94 Expos 8
'04 Cardinals 3, '02 Athletics 2
'04 Bos @ '92 Atl
'01 Sea @ '88 Oak
'04 Red Sox 11, '92 Braves 3
'88 Athletics 2, '01 Mariners 1, 10 Innings
'05 CWS @ '03 NYY
'02 SF @ '95 Cle
'05 White Sox 2, '03 Yankees 0
'95 Indians 5, '02 Giants 2
'01 Ari @ '92 Tor
'03 Fla @ '99 Atl
'01 Diamondbacks 11, '92 Blue Jays 5
'03 Marlins 1, '98 Braves 0
Just eight teams left in the mock tournament. In this round, the field is split into two double elimination tournaments. One team advances from each field to play in the finals. I will provide actual details on the games from here on.
FIELD ONE
1929 Athletics @ 1906 Cubs
1962 Giants @ 1939 Yankees
'29 Athletics 5, '06 Cubs 4, 12 Innings
Mule Haas's RBI single in the twelve inning drove in Jimmy Dykes for the go ahead run, and Carroll Yerkes pitched a 1-2-3 inning for the save. Howard Ehmke collected the win for the A's and Orval Overall picked up the loss. Joe Tinker, who hit just 31 home runs his entire career, hit a two run shot in the second.
'62 Giants 9, '39 Yankees 8
The Giants survived a thriller at Yankee Stadium. The Giants rallied in the eighth inning, scoring three runs on Charlie Keller's dropped fly ball in right field. The Yankees tied the game in the bottom of the eighth, scoring three runs with Joe Gordon's two run shot tying the game. Willie Mays hit a go ahead home run in the ninth, and the Giants added another run. The Yankees scored a run in the bottom of the inning, and nearly scored the tying run before Red Rolfe was thrown out at home plate. Don Larsen picked up the win for the Giants, Oral Hildebrand got the loss and Bobby Bolin earned the save.
1906 Cubs @ 1939 Yankees
1962 Giants @ 1929 Athletics
'39 Yankees 7, '06 Cubs 1
Joe Gordon's three run double put the Yankees up 4-1, and they coasted to an easy victory. Three Finger Brown started a day early and surrendered five runs in six innings. Bump Hadley picked up the win. Brown got the loss, finishing the tournament with a 2-1 record. Joe Gordon finished the game with four RBIs. The Cubs are eliminated from the tournament.
'62 Giants 8, '29 Athletics 7, 10 Innings
Orlando Cepeda, Willie Mays and Felipe Alou connected for three straight solo home runs in the top of the ninth with two outs to tie the game. The A's had a chance to win the game in the bottom of the ninth but Al Simmons grounded into a bases loaded double play. The Giants' Jose Pagan knocked in the go ahead run in the top of the tenth against a depleated A's bullpen. Stu Miller (2-0) collected the win while Carroll Yerkes (1-1) got the loss. The A's go on to face the '39 Yankees, with the winner advancing to a rematch with the Giants.
'39 Yankees 13, '29 Athletics 3
George Earnshaw surrendered eight runs in two and a third innings of work, and the Yankees cruised to victory. Charlie Keller went 3 for 4 with a home run, 4 RBIs and 2 walks. Pitcher Atley Donald went 3 for 5 at the plate. Donald picked up the win and improved to 2-0. Earnshaw collected the loss, falling to 2-1.
'39 Yankees 4, '62 Giants 3, 11 Innings
Joe Dimaggio tied the game with a two run home run in the top of the ninth off Don Larsen, and scored the go-ahead run in the 11th on Joe Gordon's sacrifice fly. Steve Sundra (1-0) earned the win, while Gaylord Perry (0-1) took the loss.
'39 Yankees 13, '62 Giants 3
Frankie Crosetti hit a home run and two triples, and Lefty Gomez pitched a complete game as the Yankees crushed the Giants. Gomez improves to 2-0, while the Giants' losing pitcher Billy O'Dell falls to 1-1. The 1939 Yankees advance to the tournament finals.
FIELD TWO
1980 Royals @ 1977 Yankees
1995 Indians @ 1988 Athletics
'77 Yankees 11, '80 Royals 5
Bucky F'n Dent hit a two run home run to cap a sixth inning, five run rally, and the Yankees cruised to victory. Reggie Jackson added his fourth home run of the tournament. Mike Torrez picked up the win to improve to 2-0. Rich Gale (1-1) got the loss. Ken Clay pitched three innings of scoreless relief for the save.
'95 Indians 8, '88 Athletics 3, 12 Innings
Eddie Murray hit a two run home run in the top of the twelveth to break a 3-3 tie, and the Indians tacked on three runs, thanks in part to Glenn Hubbard's two out error. Mark McGwire hit two home runs and a double. The Indians' bullpen held the A's to one run the final six innings. Jose Mesa (1-0) picked up the save, while Gene Nelson (1-1) got the loss. The Indians now play the Yankees in the winners' bracket while the A's play the Royals in the losers' bracket.
'95 Indians 8, '77 Yankees 5
Albert Belle hit two home runs and collected five RBIs to lead the Tribe to an 8-5 victory. A Chris Chambliss error with two in the eighth opened the door for the second home run, which broke a 5-5 tie. Paul Assenmacher (2-0) got the win while Sparky Lyle (0-1) got the loss.
'80 Royals 6, '88 Athletics 5
George Brett hit a two run double in the ninth, and Dan Quisenberry pitched a scoreless ninth for the save. The A's are eliminated, and the Royals proceed to a rematch with the Yankees. Winner of that reaches the regional final against Cleveland.
'77 Yankees 3, '80 Royals 2
Roy White's two out, RBI double in the eighth drove in the go ahead run and Sparky Lyle pitched a scoreless ninth for his third save. Ron Guidry gave up just two runs over eight innings to improve his record to 2-1. Dan Quisenberry took the loss, falling to 1-1. The Yankees advance to the final against the Indians. The Indians need to win one while the Yanks have to win twice.
'95 Indians 7, '77 Yankees 1
Eddie Murray's three run home run capped a five run third as the Indians crushed the Yankees. Orel Hershiser (1-1) picked up the win while Ed Figueroa (1-1) got the loss. Chad Ogea earned his second save by pitching three scoreless innings. The 1995 Indians advance to the final, where they will face the 1939 Yankees in a three game series.
Recently I stumbled upon Baseball America's archive of its Top 100 prospect lists from their inception in 1990 until today. John Sickels has a regular feature on his blog chronicaling the paths of some of the top players in baseball. I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at some of the players once considered top prospects in the Phillies systems. There are some hits (Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, Scott Rolen), and some duds (Ryan Brannan). More interestingly, there are guys who went on to big careers who were not top prospects, like Mike Lieberthal. I figured I would start this with a player viewed as a top prospect who crashed. Tyler Green made Baseball America's Top Prospect List three times, yet failed miserably as an MLB player.
The Phils drafted Green tenth overall out of the 1991 Amateur Draft. Perhaps they were mesmerized by visions of Dallas Green. In any case, Green must have had good raw stuff. His initial numbers back his ability. Green debuted with three starts in Short-Season A Batavia, and followed with two in High A Clearwater. His numbers in those starts included a 3-0 record, 28 IP, 10 Hits, 0 HRs, 14 BBs and 39 Ks. The walks were high, but the strikeout numbers were outstanding. Based on his scouting report and that showing, Baseball America rated Green the 26th best prospect in baseball.
1992 saw Green fast-tracked to AA Reading. In 12 starts he dominated again, pitching 62.3 innings, 46 hits, 2 HRs, 20 BBs and 67 Ks, 1.88 ERA. Green was promoted to AAA Scranton but only made two starts, pitching 10.3 innings and walking twelve, posting a 6.10 ERA. After the season Baseball America rated Green the number 31 prospect in baseball.
Missed time combined with an abysmal record (particularly with a high walk rate) usually indicates an injury. Unfortunately I can not find direct information confirming it. One thing for certain though is that Green never pitched as well again. In 1993 Tyler spent most of the season at AAA Scranton. His K rate fell to 6.62 per nine. His 3.95 ERA netted him a trip to Philly however where he was shelled in three appearances.
After that season Baseball America demoted Green all the way to 36. Without the knowledge of DIPS, Green's performance looked decent enough on the surface. He fell to earth in 1994. Spending the entire year in AAA Scranton, Green struck out just 95 batters in 162 innings, walked 77, gave up 25 home runs, and posted a 5.56 ERA. (The minors stayed in business during the MLB strike.) Green fell off the Baseball America Prospect list. Undaunted, the Phillies called Green to their rotation to start the 1995 season. Green compiled an 8-9 record with a 5.31 ERA, again with poor peripherals. Injuries would again strike, costing Tyler the 1996 campaign.
Green returned to Scranton in 1997, delivering a 6.10 ERA in 12 starts. Looking over those numbers, the Phillies realized they had no choice but to promote him. Green finished the year in Philadelphia, posting a 4.93 ERA in 14 starts. Green then pitched all of 1998 with the Phillies, delivering a 5.03 ERA. Green never again pitched in the majors. He had one more awful year in Scranton (4-6, 7.69 ERA), and drew his release. AAA Buffalo picked him up the next year and received an 8.38 ERA in 29 innings for their troubles.
Looking over Green, we have a pitcher who ha obvious talent, but was derailed by injuries. Even the surest of pitching prospects walks this minefield, which is why some sabermetrically inclined prospect mavens are increasingly hesitant to name a pitcher as the top prospect in baseball. See Ryan Anderson for an example. Thanks to the Stats Inc. 2001 Minor League Handbook for the numbers. The Baseball Cube page is in error regarding some of Green's 1992/93 stats with Scranton.
What games are the most crucial games in a series. At times a media outlet will trot out a statistic claiming that the team that wins game one wins the series at such and such a percentage. Is that true, and if so, does that make game one an absolute necessity. A bout of extreme boredom at work set me on the path of exploring some mathematical exploration. Using a statistical model of each team having a 50/50 shot of winning each game, I caculated how much the odds of winning a seven game series changed with each situation, such as a team up three games to one or two games to zero. Here are the various situations in order from most important to least. Importance here is defined by what extent the game changes the odds of winning the series.
1. Game Seven
2. Game Six
3. Game Four when one team holds a 2-1 series lead
4. Game Three when one team holds a 2-0 series lead
5. Game Five when one team holds a 3-1 series lead
6. Game Five when the series is tied
7. Game Two
8. Game Three when the series is tied
9. Game Four when one team holds a 3-0 series lead
10. Game One
In order to test this, I took a look at real life results, specifically MLB's last 45 postseason series. In the real world, teams taking 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 series leads have won more often than we would expect. Teams taking a 3-0 lead have won less often, but that's entirely due to one outlier in 2004. Teams taking 3-1 and 3-2 leads have won almost <I>exactly</I> as often as we expect. I think the reason for the discrepancy in the first results is because when a team takes a lead, it is often because they truly are a better team, and thus are operating at odds better than 50/50.
Teams that have won game one since 1990 have won the series 71% of the time. That's significant, but then again teams that have taken game two as well have won 90% of the time, and that is another huge gain. I think if you looked at the results of any game, you would see the same result (except for game seven, which would give you 100%). You can shift the odds around to develop different percentages, but the order above would remain roughly the same.
I don't know if you can do anything with this, but I had it down on paper and figured I would print it.
Before I begin, a quick note about ERA+, since I will use it often in this blog. ERA+ takes a pitcher's ERA and adjusts it for park and era. An ERA+ of 100 is league average. Higher is above average, lower is below average.
Hall of Fame Relievers
In my last entry I discussed the Hall of Fame chances for starting pitchers. This time out I will cover the relievers. Relief pitchers are a difficult field to judge because the Hall of Fame voters are still establishing the bar of excellence. To this date, only four relievers have been elected to the Hall (Bruce Sutter is not techically a member until his induction next month, but we're treating him as an inductee for this purpose). Here's a brief overview of their statistics.
Hoyt Wilhelm (1952-72): 143-122, 2.52 ERA, 146 ERA+, 227 saves, 2,254.3 Innings Pitched
Rollie Fingers (1968-85): 114-118, 2.90 ERA, 119 ERA+, 341 saves, 1,701.3 IP
Bruce Sutter (1976-88): 68-71, 2.83 ERA, 136 ERA+, 300 saves, 1,042.3 IP
Dennis Eckersley (1975-98): 197-171, 3.50 ERA, 116 ERA+, 390 saves, 3,285.7 IP
When comparing starters, you can make a group of Hall of Famers and compare candidates. You can not really do that here because all four inductees are different. Hoyt Wilhelm was a knuckleball pitcher who did not even reach the majors until the age of 29 (incidently, he hit his only career home run in his first at bat). Rollie Fingers looks like an undeserving candidate in some aspects, but he did retire as the career leader in saves. Dennis Eckersley combined dual careers as a starter and reliever. And Bruce Sutter may or may not have invented the split-finger fastball.
The difficulty is that some relievers with equal credentials have been excluded. Dan Quisenberry for example finished with a career ERA+ better than any of the four Hall of Fame relievers above. Voters are less impressed with final results and more impressed with image. A reliever needs either a blazing fastball or high strikeout totals. Quisenberry rarely struck out batters, but he walked as few batters as any pitcher in modern baseball history.
What is the best measure of reliever quality? Saves? The top five in saves are Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman, John Franco, Dennis Eckersley and Mariano Rivera. Jeff Reardon follows at number six. The problem is that saves are a product of the current era. Jose Mesa has 319 saves and a career ERA+ of 101 (just about average). That's certainly not Hall of Fame quality.
You need to set aside statistics across eras. The trend in relief pitching has been to utilize shorter outings. Modern relievers pitch less innings than twenty or thirty years ago. However, they pitch at MUCH higher effectiveness. Billy Wagner's ERA+ would rate as the best of all time, but he has not even pitched 700 innings at this rate. If pitchers of this era pitched in a different era, they could pitch longer but less effectively. The same goes for the relievers of the Gossage/Sutter era.
So the only real way to identify Hall of Fame relievers is to compare them against the current era. The mark of a Hall of Famer is separation from the pack. If many players have reached the same level of achievement, then it's not that outstanding a performance. From baseball-reference, I identified the 15 active leaders in games finished. Those 15 relievers compiled ERA+'s ranging from 197 to 101.
I think we can safely dismiss the nine relievers with ERA+'s under 140. I do not see a single Hall of Fame candidate among that group. That gives us six names. Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Troy Percival, Armando Benitez, Trevor Hoffman and Keith Foulke. Billy Wagner and Troy Percival each have less than 700 innings pitched for their career, and Armando Benitez and Keith Foulke are barely above that. All four would easily have the fewest innings pitched of any Hall of Fame pitcher (including Babe Ruth). That leaves Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman as legitimate candidates with an acceptable number of innings pitched.
Mariano Rivera has really surpassed any element of debate. Rivera's ERA+ is better than any pitcher in baseball history. On top of that, he has pitched 111.7 innings in the postseason with just an 0.81 ERA, an 8-1 record and 34 saves. Not only is Rivera's postseason ERA the lowest of any pitcher with significant postseason innings, but they are nearly all high leverage innings.
Trevor Hoffman's a slightly more difficult case. His ERA+ is very good, but Rivera, Billy Wagner, Troy Percival and Armando Benitez are better (and Wagner's is significantly better). How much strength do you put in 150-200 more innings pitched? It is not insignificant, considering that is 3-4 seasons worth of work for a relief pitcher. Hoffman doesn't have a real postseason resume (although he's pitched well when given the opportunity. Hoffman has however put himself in reach of the all time saves mark. When Hoffman reaches the All-Time saves record, he should punch his ticket to the Hall of Fame. His ERA+ is on the level of the elites, and you have to do something right to set the saves record.
The big question mark is Billy Wagner. No one really discusses him as a Hall of Famer, and I never really saw him as such. But his 180 ERA+ is one of the greatest marks in baseball history, and only Rivera is really on his level. Wagner is the most dominant left handed relief pitcher of all time. However, his 650 or so innings is incredibly low for a Hall of Famer. In 3-4 years however, he might be a serious candidate.
I've been putting this off for several days. As some of you might imagine, I am somewhat steamed by the trade that sent Bobby Abreu to the Yankees for four prospects. Abreu was one of my favorite players, and the Yankees are my most hated enemy. But sometimes good baseball sense requires that you set personal feelings aside and make decisions that win games. So I would like to be as fair about this as possible.
First off, the trade is terrible, value-for-value. The Phillies sent a player away with a .301 career batting average, .412 OBP, 261 career stolen bases, and two All-Star appearances. I could recite statistics all day. The players the Phillies got in return include a 20 year old shortstop in Low A known more for his athleticism than his production, a 27 year old middle reliever currently in AAA, and two prospects with potential but too far away to even project. All the circumstances in the trade point to a pure salary dump. That the Phils got little in return and did it at the trading deadline gives the impression that they wanted (or perhaps needed) to clear Abreu's salary as quickly as possible. Let's face it. Attendance at the new Citizens Bank Park has settled back to 2.6 Million after spiking to 3.2 Million its first season. Pessimistic messages by G.M. Pat Gillick will not help season ticket sales. The previous payroll of $95 Million is probably not sustainable in the eyes of the club. (It probably is, but I'm not going to turn this into another essay about club economics).
The trade aside, does this move make the Phillies better? Payroll flexibility gets thrown around alot, but that implies that the Phillies will both spend the savings, and that there are players worth buying. Maybe by spending the money on two players you come out ahead by plugging holes. That's entirely possible, but we will not see that until the offseason. In the meantime, improvements in the Phillies play will no doubt be attributed to some sort of clubhouse chemestry, the idea being that Abreu was some sort of curmudgeon whose mere presence forced Ryan Franklin to throw multiple gopher balls.
That of course is nonsense. But defense is not, and Abreu's play in right field has declined over the last two seasons. You can punt defense in one corner, but putting up with Abreu in right field AND Pat Burrell's declining range in left field has worsened the defense, and might be responsible for some of the Phils' inability to prevent runs. I feel fairly comfortable even as an Abreu fan working under the assumption that switching right fielders will improve the defense.
Does that make up for the lack of offense? Most fans assume that adding/deleting a star makes a greater difference than it really does. David Dellucci has actually posted a better OPS the last two years than Bobby Abreu. Abreu has a higher OBP, by perhaps 70 points. Over the last two months of the season, that works out to reaching base about 14 times more.
Now, Dellucci's offense is largely based against right handed pitching. By a happy coincidence, Shane Victorino is crushing LEFT handed pitching this season. If you get a right-handed hitting platoon partner for Dellucci, you've replaced 80% of Abreu's production at about a third of the cost. The Phils play only a fourth of their games against lefties, so Dellucci's lack of production against lefties isn't a serious problem.
You know, I actually like this deal a bit. I don't think the Phillies are much worse without Abreu, and they should be able to pick up some help over the offseason. The Phils have some young pitching coming up the system, and I think they'll contend next season.
Other Phillies Notes:
The last Phillies notes on MLB.com reported the outstanding batting line of Branden Florence in Class A Clearwater. What the article didn't mention is that Florence is a designated hitter and sometime left fielder, and that he's 28 years old. In his prime, he's posted an MLE (Major League Equivelency) of .252/.283/.323. In context, Peter Bergeron's a better prospect.....SS Adrian Cardenas is ripping up the Gulf Coast League. He has an excellent chance of showing up on my postseason top 30 prospect list....The Red Barons are six games up on the playoffs with 32 games left.
Normally I stick to writing about baseball, but sometimes topics come around that are too good to pass up. Logging onto ESPN.com, I was greated with a request to take a short survey. Ok, these are short and relatively painless. I'm paraphrasing the first two questions.
Year of birth, how many hours do you spend on the internet?
21-30 hours, 1981. My town doesn't have nightlife and I prefer the internet over television.
Are you familiar with a term called Erectile Disfunction?
And I thought I was forward. Yes, it's kind of hard to miss.
On a 1-5 scale, how would you describe your level of awareness of the symptoms of erectile dysfunction (ED)?
Depends on what you mean by awareness. And really, how unaware can you be of the symptoms? There's just one. It's when you look down and notice your erectile is disfunctioning.
Please indicate how strongly you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.
There are effective treatments for erectile dysfunction
Drugs? No. Women? Yes. Somehow I doubt ESPN.com intends to try and sell me the former.
Erectile dysfunction is a common problem among men your age
If by that you mean the damned urge won't go away, then yes.
You would like to learn more about erectile dysfunction
It just occurs to me that the survey didn't ask about my gender. Why yes, I find erectile dysfunction fascinating. When I sit down with my buddies to watch baseball, we regularly mute the game so we can sit in a circle and learn more about how our dicks are working (and not working). I take notes and pay visits to girlfriends later. I'm smart like that.
Millions of men are being safely and successfully treated for erectile dysfunction
Is this a survey or a quiz?
Half of all men over 30 have some form of ED
Strongly disagree. It should be noted that functional umm, operations can lead to successful sex and then childbirth, which I oppose.
If you thought you or your male partner might suffer from the symptoms of erectile dysfunction (ED), how comfortable would you feel talking to your doctor about it?
I don't even like talking to my doctor about my diabetes.
How interested are you in learning more information about erectile dysfunction (ED)?
Ha.
How likely are you to talk to your doctor about erectile dysfunction (ED)?
I'm shocked I'm even talking to YOU.
How likely are you to look for information online about erectile dysfunction (ED)?
This blog is as far as it gets.
Do you recall seeing an online advertisement about erectile dysfunction (ED)?
No, and that's legit. I've trained myself not to notice online advertising.
Do you recall seeing an online advertisement featuring Dr. Drew in a stadium?
I've seen Kimberly Franklin in a stadium (Gang bang Girl 32).
When thinking of products for improving men’s erections, what ONE brand comes to mind first?
Hustler.
And so on. Luckily I have an ESPN Insider pass from a friend, so ESPN.com now knows how interested a certain TSM Moderator is about erectile dysfunction. Personally, I never knew focus marketing could be so blatant and yet so vauge. They should just come out and say, "should we advertise viagra on our website?" That would save everyone a lot of trouble. Because frankly, when ESPN.com starts asking me about my medical history, survey over.
I'd just like to know what type of person answers "why yes, I'd love to know more about erectile dysfunction." No jokes about current TSM posters please.
The award balloting is occuring in the Sports forum. I figured I would list my own ballot here.
NL MVP
1: Albert Pujols, StL
2: Ryan Howard, Phi
3: Carlos Beltran, NYM
4: Miguel Cabrera, Fla
5: Lance Berkman, Hou
6: Alfonso Soriano, Was
7: Jose Reyes, NYM
8: David Wright, NYM
9: Rafael Furcal, LAD
10: Chase Utley, Phi
AL MVP
1. Derek Jeter, NYY
2. Joe Mauer, Min
3. Grady Sizemore, Cle
4. Justin Morneau, Min
5. David Ortiz, Bos
6. Manny Ramirez, Bos
7. Johan Santana, Min
8. Jermaine Dye, CWS
9. Jim Thome, CWS
10. Carlos Guillen, Det
NL Cy Young
1. Roy Oswalt, Hou
2. Brandon Webb, Ari
3. Chris Carpenter, StL
AL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana, Min
2. Roy Halladay, Tor
3. Mike Mussina, NYY
NL Manager of the Year
1. Joe Girardi, Fla
2. Bruce Bochy, SD
3. Felipe Alou, SF
AL Manager of the Year
1. Jim Leyland, Det
2. Ken Macha, Oak
3. Ron Gardenhire, Min
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Hanley Ramirez, Fla
2. Ryan Zimmerman, Was
3. Dan Uggla, Fla
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Justin Verlander, Det
2. Kenji Johjima, Sea
3. Jon Papelbon, Bos
The World Series is over, the Cardinals defeating the Tigers in five games. And in a way, I am glad the Series is over. Yes, it means no more Major League Baseball until March. But this Series was one of the more excruciating baseball experiences of my life. There were times I did not want to even watch the games, but felt obligated.
Neither the Cardinals or Tigers really set the world afire. This is one of the problems with parity. Yes, you have a greater number of teams competing for the postseason. The problem is that the more parity you add, the closer the league as a whole finishes to .500. It isn't necessarily a lack of overall quality, it could be balance. And when you get to the postseason, you no longer have those strong teams that everyone wants to watch. When you combine that with a eight team postseason, you get a system where the World Series combatants are two seemingly random teams instead of the two best teams in the league.
Of course, that shouldn't be an issue to a hardcore fanatic like myself. The problem, and it pains me to say this, was that the games were boring. With a capital B. Game One saw the Cards score the game-winning run in the third inning. The Tigers got the game-winning run in the first inning of game two. The Cards scored the game winning run in the fourth innings of game three and five. Only the fourth game was of any quality whatsoever. Compare that with last year's sweep, in which three of four were decided in the eighth inning or later.
I don't know what you do about that quite honestly. Sometimes you get classics and sometimes you get stinkers. I guess the big issue is when you combine it with all of Fox's crap. God Bless America during the stretch, endless crowd shots, quick camera work, and those awful, awful commercials. All I know is that for the next four months, all I have are my dvds. Commercial free, classic baseball. Beats the hell out of watching Fox.
The news out of Philadelphia is that the Phillies want to persue free agent outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Presumably they would trade Pat Burrell to open up left field. Soriano has long been looked at in the sabermetric community as an overrated player, even a bad one. At some points, that flies in the face of logic. What do we make of Soriano? Is he a promising player into his 30s, or a potential liability?
Soriano's comparables at his age include Howard Johnson, Tony Batista, Matt Williams, Bob Horner and Jeff Kent. Howard Johnson is an interesting case. Like Soriano, Johnson had a huge year at age 30, hitting 38 home runs and stealing 30 bases. Johnson hit .233 the next season with 7 home runs. Ouch. Still, you wonder how accurate the comparisons are given that Soriano didn't get started until he was 25, now plays left field, and has plate discipline unlike most of his comparables.
Using Lee Sinins' sabermetric encyclopedia, I sought to create a new group of comparables. I asked the program to give me a list of all players who hit 150 home runs, stole 150 bases, and produced an OBP between .315 and .340 (Soriano's is .325). The list produced fifteen players, one of which is Soriano. That leaves us with 14 comps. Let's take a look at them, purely after age 30.
EXCELLENT: Andre Dawson
VERY GOOD: Dave Parker, Steve Finley, Dante Bichette
GOOD: Bill Buckner, Ron Gant, Devon White
FAIR: Vada Pinson, Juan Samuel, Raul Mondesi, Claudell Washington
POOR: Marquis Grissom, Lloyd Moseby, Howard Johnson
Dawson made five all-star teams, Bichette and Parker made three, and Finley two. Except for Dawson, none were truly great players in their 30s. Most players remained productive well into their careers though. We would expect players with high stolen base totals to remain good later on, as truly athletic players at 50% are still good athletes. What's interesting is that Soriano has a higher isolated power figure than any other player on the list.
Going forward, it's difficult to tell what to expect. Players of Soriano's caliber don't remain stars, but Soriano's such a unique player that he may buck the trend. You hope that the Phillies (or any team) have him scouted well, and have taken the stats into consideration.
Some down time today allows me to fool around with the Sabermetric Encyclopedia.
-Over the last two seasons, Chase Utley has hit 60 home runs, driven in 207 runs, and stolen 31 bases. Only twelve other players in baseball have compiled numbers better in their age 26/27 seasons. Eleven of those twelve are outfielders, and none are second basemen. That should put Chase's ability into perspective. Just for assurances, I removed steals, and Utley still remains the only second baseman on the list.
-How many 21 year old left handed, 5'7" pitchers have there been in the modern era? One, Fabio Castro. Bobby Shantz is an interesting comparison though. Shantz won the AL MVP award in 1952, compiling a 24-7 record for the Philadelphia Athletics. Shantz soon suffered injuries and never won more than 11 games again, but thrived in bullpen work later in his career. It's the same story. Great talent, but durability issues.
-I got Game six of the 1975 World Series of Netflix. I hope Bored does his writeup of this game soon. One interesting, overlooked aspect of the series is that it was the Reds, not the Red Sox, who had the burden of failure to escape. The Reds won 102 games in 1970 but lost the World Series to the Baltimore Orioles. They finished fifth in 1971. In 1972, the Reds lost the World Series to the Athletics in seven games. All four of their losses were one run margins. Then in 1973, the Reds lost the NLCS to the 82-79 New York Mets.
-Speaking of that series, the 1975 World Series is probably the most underrated World Series of all time. It's overlooked because it had one true classic that everyone focuses on. Four of the other games were nailbiters too, and game one was not decided until the seventh inning.
I don't know how many of you are in college. I'm pursuing a double major in History and Political Science. I'm in my last semester, working on completing a classed called Political Science Seminar. Generally the purpose of these courses is to compile one sizeable paper, 20 pages in this case. I did it last semester for History. History is my first love. I originally had a minor in Political Science, but I decided to go for the major because it took just nine more credits (3 classes). For the paper I just said the heck with it and chose a baseball-themed topic, the antitrust exemption. It involves three Supreme Court cases, placing it well within the realm of Political Science.
The paper's due on Thursday, giving me five more days to pull this out. This morning I came up with a sore throat so on top of balancing school and work, I feel like crap. I am battling though, and its a minor victory that I've got 11 pages written. If I switch to Courier New, it's at 15 pages! The problem is that if I get too much done, I feel accomplished and I don't touch it again for a few days. It's a nice little bit of reverse psycology at work. It's funny though. The more you go through college, the more you laugh at smaller papers. Three or four pages? One night, easy. You don't even fret about it.
In three weeks I'll have a dual bacholar's degree and while I'm excited, I'm going to miss hanging out with my friends and the other cool things about college.
Some random (baseball) notes...
-I hadn't realized how good Brian McCann was until I saw his stat line. A .572 slugging percentage at the age of 22?! On top of that, McCann hit .333 and walked nearly as often as he struck out. Brian McCann's isolated power (slugging pct. minus batting average) was well above .200. For comparison's sake, only three other catchers have flashed that kind of power at McCann's age. Johnny Bench went to the Hall of Fame. Darrell Porter was one of the top 30 catchers of all time. Earl Williams had great power, but was abysmal defensively.
-As I noted in the offseason thread, Carlos Lee stole 19 bases and grounded into 22 double plays. It would seem odd for a player to flash good speed and still run himself out of innings. So I checked and found that 14 players had posted similar seasons, most of them great players like Hank Aaron, Jackie Robinson and Minnie Minoso. How does this happen?
1. 13 of the 14 players were right handed hitters. Righties have a longer distance to run to first base.
2. Double play opportunites are dictated much like RBI opportunities. Players on better offensive teams will ground into more double plays, simply because they come to bat more often with a runner on first base.
3. Strategies sometimes dictate play. In the 1950s, a batter who got to first base stayed anchored to the bag. Few hit and runs and steal attempts made double plays easier for the defense.
-Many have noted Carlo Lee's expanding girth. The encyclopedias list him at 235 lbs. Among players listed at 235 lbs. or more, only Andres Galarraga has more career stolen bases. Galarraga leads Lee 128 to 96.
-That inspired me to take an opposite list, home runs by little guys. I consider Ozzie Smith the standard at 155 lbs. At 150 lbs., Jose Cardenal hit 138 career home runs, making him the little home run king.
-Finally, I just purchased this hat off of mlb.com. THIS is stylish.
With the Baseball Writers making their decision, the Baseball Hall of Fame discussion turns to the Veterans' Committee ballot. The Veterans ballot occurs every other year, and is voted on by all living Hall of Famers, as well as writers and broadcasters. Currently, I believe the system is ill-constructed. There are too many vaguely qualified candidates on the ballot and no way to reach a consensus. The system would be much improved by taking the top ten vote getters and running a second, run-off ballot. As it stands, I doubt this system will result in any new inductees.
Dick Allen: One of the most controversial players in the history of baseball. Allen seemingly created trouble wherever he landed. Often, teams were eager to get rid of him despite his tremendous production. His talent is unquestioned. In 1966, Allen slugged .632 when the league as a whole slugged .399. Allen led the league in OPS four times, slugging three times, and On Base Percentage twice. His adjusted OPS ranks 21st all time. Unfortunately, he had a relatively short career. Bill James argues that Allen was more trouble than he was worth. I'm not sure what to make of it. Right no, I'd have to say no.
Bobby Bonds: Until Andre Dawson and Barry Bonds, Bobby was the greatest combination of power and speed in the history of baseball. Bobby, like Dick Allen, had a relatively short career. Unlike Dick Allen, he was not a dominant player. He did not win an MVP and he played in just three All-Star games. He wasn't great, and he wasn't very good for long enough.
Ken Boyer: Boyer is a tremendously underrated player, one who receives little acclaim because he played in an era of low offense and contributed across the board. For seven years, Boyer hit 23-32 home runs a season and collected 90+ RBIs. At the same time, he won five Gold Gloves at third base. Boyer finished in the top ten of MVP voting three times, winning the award in 1964. I can't endorse Boyer, but it is closer than people realize.
Rocky Colavito: A feared power hitter in his prime, Colavito hit 40+ home runs in three seasons. He finished in the top ten of MVP voting four times. Again, Colavito had a short career, retiring at the age of 34. Rocky led the league in home runs once, RBIs once, slugging percentage once. None of his ten comparable players are in the Hall of Fame. Colavito just wasn't good enough at his peak to merit induction.
Wes Ferrell: 193 wins and a 4.04 ERA is not generally remarkable. Ferrell did win 91 games over four seasons. He pitched in a genuinely difficult era for pitchers. The most remarkable statistic about Ferrell is his hitting. Ferrell hit .280/.351/.446 over the course of his career, league average numbers out of the pitching spot. His .601 winning percentage is impressive, but he just didn't last long enough. Ferrell pitched just 8 games after turning 30.
Curt Flood: Flood essentially retired rather than accept a trade to the Philadelphia Phillies. He challenged baseball's reserve clause and lost. Again we have a player who enjoyed a short career. During his career, Flood was a league average hitter with a sensational glove. Flood was possibly one of the top five defensive outfielders of all time. However, I can't see how half a season of that makes a Hall of Famer.
Joe Gordon: Yet another short career guy. Gordon gets a pass for two seasons however because he served during World War II. Gordon was absolutely a Hall of Fame talent at his peak. He won an MVP and finished in the top ten four other times. He made the All-Star team nine times, every season except his first and last years. Gordon played on five championship clubs. Given credit for the war years, I think Gordon deserves induction.
Gil Hodges: A popular player, but only the 5th or 6th best player on his club. Hodges only finished in the top ten of MVP balloting twice, and never really got close to winning. Hodges never led the league in a significant offensive category. Hodges accumulated a lot of RBIs because he played on great teams, but he was not a great player. The only way he merits induction is if you give him credit for managing the Miracle Mets. I can't see it.
Jim Kaat: Kaat is an interesting case. He wasn't a great pitcher, just a very good one who lasted a LONG time. That might not sound impressive, but I've always maintained that if it were easy to stick around and accumulate numbers, more pitchers would do it. Kaat's numbers are similar to Robin Roberts and Ferguson Jenkins. He's borderline, but I would vote for him. 283 wins is enough.
Rundown: Jim Kaat and Joe Gordon in this batch. Mickey Lolich through Lefty O'Doul in the next batch, and we'll finish with Tony Oliva through Maury Wills.
Before I begin, another word on Joe Gordon. Despite a short career, Gordon is one of only four second baseman to hit 25+ home runs in five seasons. The others are Rogers Hornsby, Ryne Sandberg and Jeff Kent.
Mickey Lolich: Lolich's inclusion on the ballot is frankly puzzling. Lolich compiled a 217-191 record, not a great percentage for a candidate with that few wins. His sole qualification seems that for a two year stretch he compiled a 47-28 record with a 2.73 ERA. Using Lee Sinins' Runs Saved Above Average, his 52 RSAA over that stretch placed him eighth among pitchers. Only one of his ten comps are in the Hall, and that pitcher (Jim Bunning) had far superior ERAs.
Sparky Lyle: With four closers in the Hall and more coming, perhaps we missed one or two? Looking over relievers with 200+ games finished in the 1970s, Lyle ranks 5th in WHIP, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in saves, 2nd in RSAA, and 7th in strikeout/walk ratio. He won a Cy Young award in 1977. I can't endorse Lyle however. He was not the best reliever of the 1970s, instead competing for second among John Hiller, Mike Marshall, and others not considered candidates at all. None of his ten comparable pitchers are even candidates. The numbers just don't support this one.
Marty Marion: It is difficult to gauge Marion because his value rests on his defensive abilities. Contemporaries felt highly of Marion. He won an MVP award and finished in the top ten three times. He gained selection to eight consecutive All-Star games. Two caveats apply however. One, Marion only played thirteen seasons. Second, his best years occured during World War II when much of his competition was overseas. When there was no war, his OPS+ fell below 80. He simply was not a great player.
Roger Maris: Maris carries most of the loudest arguments towards his induction, and they may become louder yet with the steroid controversy looming over the new record holder(s). My position is that if that 61 did not appear on Maris's record, he would not be within a mile of the Hall of Fame. He won two MVP awards. He only appeared on four All-Star teams and only received any MVP support at all in one other season. None of his ten comparable players are in the Hall. Maris was a great player for two seasons. If two seasons of greatness are the standard of the Hall, then there are MANY other players who would deserve the honor.
Carl Mays: Carl Mays threw the pitch that killed Ray Chapman. He also compiled a 207-126 record, not many wins but an impressive winning percentage. Mays is another player in the "lost it early" group. Mays never dominated the league however, only finishing first in a handful of categories. He pitched for the Red Sox dynasty of the teens and the Yankees' dynasty of the early '20s. I suspect his win/loss record is due in part to pitching for great teams, and his other stats give him little extra support.
Minnie Minoso: Bill James' favorite candidate. The Minnie Minoso argument states that he didn't stick in the Majors until he was 26, and had a Hall of Fame career afterwards. If we take that statement for face value, how does Minoso rate with other left fielders, age 26 and older? I'm unimpressed. Minoso rates among the leaders, but those above him include illuminaries such as Bob Johnson and Luis Gonzalez, who are not serious candidates. Some like to support Minoso's candidacy by isolating his statistics in his 30s. Unless he collected 200 hits a year from ages 21-25, he would not have gotten 3,000 hits. Minoso finished in the top ten of MVP voting five times and made seven All-Star teams. Looking for a similar player, I spotted Ken Singleton. Minoso received more acclaim due to his speed, but they were roughly equal in value. Singleton is not a viable candidate. I can not support Minoso either.
Thurman Munson: Do you make an allowance for Munson passing away early? I don't believe you should, that Munson's case should be treated like any other injured player. But let's set that aside for the second. Using the same trick we used for Minoso, how does Munson compare with catchers up to the age of his death? Munson fails to impress in this regard. He rates 19th in OBP, 7th in hits, 11th in RBIs, 16th in RCAA, and 11th in Runs scored. Many non-Hall of Famers rank above him. Munson's slugging percentage fell off the table in 1978, so it's doubtful he had much left to contribute in his career. He wasn't good enough in his peak to merit induction.
Don Newcombe: Another pitcher with a brilliant peak, Newcombe compiled a 149-90 record. He debuted at the age of 23, so I doubt you can give him much of an adjustment for the color line. Newcombe had a few good years, even winning the MVP in 1956. He doesn't rate among the top five pitchers of his era however, and his record received a huge boost from the offense that played for him (four Hall of Famers, plus Gil Hodges). 149 wins is way too few for a serious candidate unless he dominates like Sandy Koufax or Dizzy Dean.
Lefty O'Doul: O'Doul hit .373 over a four year period from 1929 until 1932. That is superficially impressive, but the average hitter in the Baker Bowl in that era hit nearly .320. Phillies hitters in the 1930s received a greater boost from their environment than hitters enjoy at Coors Field today. O'Doul only reached 10 seasons thanks to four fruitless years as a pitcher early in his career. As a player, he is undeserving. HOWEVER, many argue that O'Doul deserves a boost because of his role as an ambassador to baseball in Japan. If you believe Buck O'Neil deserves the Hall, than O'Doul could merit induction under the same criteria.
The Rundown. None this round. Jim Kaat and Joe Gordon last round.
Tony Oliva: Impressive career OPS+ of 131 over a 15 year career. Oliva made eight All-Star teams, finished sixth or higher in MVP votes four times, and won three batting titles. Oliva played his prime in an extremely tough offensive era. His peak is fairly impressive. However, Oliva does not rank in the top 100 of any offensive category except intentional walks. Only one of Oliva's ten most comparable players is in the Hall. That player, George Kelly, is considered one of the worst players in the Hall. As a right fielder, Oliva's totals just don't stack up.
Al Oliver: Oliver is an interesting Hall of Fame candidate. Oliver hit .303 over his career, made seven All-Star teams and enjoyed three top ten MVP finishes. He wasn't a great player at any point however. Looking over center fielders in the 1970s, Oliver ranks behind Fred Lynn, Bobby Murcer, Cesar Cedeno, Amos Otis and maybe Rick Monday. Oliver is indistinguishable from several of his era, not the mark of a Hall of Famer.
Vada Pinson: Like Oliver, Pinson accumulated great counting totals from being a good player for a long time. Pinson collected 2,757 career hits. Again however, there is little to support that Pinson was a great player. Pinson made just two All-Star games, and won just one Gold Glove, meaning his defensive capabilities can't carry him in. Pinson only finished in the Top ten of MVP balloting twice. His numbers do not merit induction.
Ron Santo: Off all players on the ballot, Santo is the one player who absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt deserves induction. At the time of his retirement, Santo ranked 5th among third basemen in hits, second in home runs, 3rd in OPS, and 2nd in RBIs. He also won five Gold Gloves. He was a dominant offensive/defensive player for five years.
Luis Tiant: Best known for his role on the 1975 Red Sox, Tiant compiled a 229-172 record over his career. His career record is similar to Catfish Hunter's. The difference is that Catfish won 20 games five years in a row and had a better peak. The problem with Tiant is that he only appeared in three All-Star games and never came close to the Cy Young award. Over the span of Tiant's career (1964-82), he ranks 31st in ERA and 10th in wins. There were many better pitchers in that era.
Joe Torre: Torre's a tough player to categorize. He played the most games at catcher, but only 40% of them. He split time at first and third base as well. He won a gold glove behind the plate, but was considered a poor defensive catcher. Torre played for nine All-Star teams and his 129 OPS+ would be excellent if you classified him as a catcher. Torre's a similar player in value to Gene Tenace, except that Torre played over 500 more games and won an MVP award. I'd vote for Torre. He's borderline, but he managed four championship clubs.
Cecil Travis: I wrote a piece on Cecil Travis a couple weeks ago. I don't remember if I published it, but the essential point is that Travis was a budding superstar whose career was cut short after he suffered frostbite fighting in the 2nd World War. Travis might have enjoyed a Hall of Fame career. When he left for war, he had a .331 career batting average. I'm not certain though. I don't feel comfortable voting for him, given that dozens of players were great early in their careers but lost Hall of Fame careers due to attrition.
Mickey Vernon: I don't see it. Unimpressive career totals, even accounting for a tough hitters' environment in Washington. Vernon won two batting titles and led the league in doubles three times, but he was not a dominant offensive force. He was the Mark Grace of his era.
Maury Wills: Lou Brock got the record, but Maury Wills revolutionized stealing bases in the 1960s. Wills stole 104 bases in 117 tries in 1962. Wills was an average hitter (for a shortstop) and a decent glove man. I don't think it's enough to get him into the Hall however. Wills wasn't any better than Jim Fregosi, a great player in his 20s but a non candidate. Wills was also considered a negative in regards to character.
Rundown: Santo and Torre alongside Joe Gordon and Jim Kaat from earlier rundowns. Four candidates from a group of 27.
