I don't know how many of you are in college. I'm pursuing a double major in History and Political Science. I'm in my last semester, working on completing a classed called Political Science Seminar. Generally the purpose of these courses is to compile one sizeable paper, 20 pages in this case. I did it last semester for History. History is my first love. I originally had a minor in Political Science, but I decided to go for the major because it took just nine more credits (3 classes). For the paper I just said the heck with it and chose a baseball-themed topic, the antitrust exemption. It involves three Supreme Court cases, placing it well within the realm of Political Science.
The paper's due on Thursday, giving me five more days to pull this out. This morning I came up with a sore throat so on top of balancing school and work, I feel like crap. I am battling though, and its a minor victory that I've got 11 pages written. If I switch to Courier New, it's at 15 pages! The problem is that if I get too much done, I feel accomplished and I don't touch it again for a few days. It's a nice little bit of reverse psycology at work. It's funny though. The more you go through college, the more you laugh at smaller papers. Three or four pages? One night, easy. You don't even fret about it.
In three weeks I'll have a dual bacholar's degree and while I'm excited, I'm going to miss hanging out with my friends and the other cool things about college.
Some random (baseball) notes...
-I hadn't realized how good Brian McCann was until I saw his stat line. A .572 slugging percentage at the age of 22?! On top of that, McCann hit .333 and walked nearly as often as he struck out. Brian McCann's isolated power (slugging pct. minus batting average) was well above .200. For comparison's sake, only three other catchers have flashed that kind of power at McCann's age. Johnny Bench went to the Hall of Fame. Darrell Porter was one of the top 30 catchers of all time. Earl Williams had great power, but was abysmal defensively.
-As I noted in the offseason thread, Carlos Lee stole 19 bases and grounded into 22 double plays. It would seem odd for a player to flash good speed and still run himself out of innings. So I checked and found that 14 players had posted similar seasons, most of them great players like Hank Aaron, Jackie Robinson and Minnie Minoso. How does this happen?
1. 13 of the 14 players were right handed hitters. Righties have a longer distance to run to first base.
2. Double play opportunites are dictated much like RBI opportunities. Players on better offensive teams will ground into more double plays, simply because they come to bat more often with a runner on first base.
3. Strategies sometimes dictate play. In the 1950s, a batter who got to first base stayed anchored to the bag. Few hit and runs and steal attempts made double plays easier for the defense.
-Many have noted Carlo Lee's expanding girth. The encyclopedias list him at 235 lbs. Among players listed at 235 lbs. or more, only Andres Galarraga has more career stolen bases. Galarraga leads Lee 128 to 96.
-That inspired me to take an opposite list, home runs by little guys. I consider Ozzie Smith the standard at 155 lbs. At 150 lbs., Jose Cardenal hit 138 career home runs, making him the little home run king.
-Finally, I just purchased this hat off of mlb.com. THIS is stylish.
Some down time today allows me to fool around with the Sabermetric Encyclopedia.
-Over the last two seasons, Chase Utley has hit 60 home runs, driven in 207 runs, and stolen 31 bases. Only twelve other players in baseball have compiled numbers better in their age 26/27 seasons. Eleven of those twelve are outfielders, and none are second basemen. That should put Chase's ability into perspective. Just for assurances, I removed steals, and Utley still remains the only second baseman on the list.
-How many 21 year old left handed, 5'7" pitchers have there been in the modern era? One, Fabio Castro. Bobby Shantz is an interesting comparison though. Shantz won the AL MVP award in 1952, compiling a 24-7 record for the Philadelphia Athletics. Shantz soon suffered injuries and never won more than 11 games again, but thrived in bullpen work later in his career. It's the same story. Great talent, but durability issues.
-I got Game six of the 1975 World Series of Netflix. I hope Bored does his writeup of this game soon. One interesting, overlooked aspect of the series is that it was the Reds, not the Red Sox, who had the burden of failure to escape. The Reds won 102 games in 1970 but lost the World Series to the Baltimore Orioles. They finished fifth in 1971. In 1972, the Reds lost the World Series to the Athletics in seven games. All four of their losses were one run margins. Then in 1973, the Reds lost the NLCS to the 82-79 New York Mets.
-Speaking of that series, the 1975 World Series is probably the most underrated World Series of all time. It's overlooked because it had one true classic that everyone focuses on. Four of the other games were nailbiters too, and game one was not decided until the seventh inning.
I picked up Volume One of the Royal Rumble Anthology (1988-92) from Amazon.com. At $35 any of these sets is a great value, as each event comes out at $7 apiece. I do not know how many of you were WWF fans in the early '90s, but Coliseum Video copies of the events used to run in the neighborhood of $60. Next time your elderly neighbor complains about prices these days, remember not everything has gotten more expensive.
1988 Royal Rumble
It is harder to judge this event against the others, because it was not a standard Pay-per-view event. This show was essentially an episode of Saturday Night's Main Event with an extended battle royal attached. The Royal Rumble was not outstanding and not dull, and you got a Jumping Bomb Angels match in the deal. I still think the Islanders/Young Stallions match is poor. No crowd heat whatsoever and nearly ten minutes in-between falls. Given the show live must have run close to three hours, it has more of a vibe of "let's get this over with."
1989 Royal Rumble
The Rumble enough is solid enough but the undercard is very weak once you get past the opening tag bout. (Rougeaus and Dino Bravo against Hacksaw Jim Duggan and the Hart Foundation.) Actually there are only four matches on the show, including the Royal Rumble. The Rumble itself is again fairly good, with Demolition entering one/two, the compelling Hogan/Savage angle, the Savage/Bad News Brown feud, and the Hogan/Twin Towers feud coming into play. The match dies off with Hogan's elimination, but watching DiBiase get his comeuppance makes the match watchable.
1990 Royal Rumble
As a kid I used to fast-forward through the undercards to get to the Rumble match itself. As a result, I missed the Valentine/Garvin feud. There is great stuff between those two guys, and their submission match is a great battle of psychology, with each guy sporting their own shinguards, losing them mid-match, Garvin pelting Valentine with his own shinguard to set up the finish. Up until 2000-02 gave us some good Rumbles, this was the second best of the bunch.
1991 Royal Rumble
For the first time, this disc gave me the opportunity to watch Koko B. Ware vs. The Mountie (it was cut from the CV version). It does not matter much, but it would bug people who are completists. The overriding theme here is the patriotism in the wake of the Iraqi War. Vince really mis-measured fan reaction and it caused him to set up a drastic failure in Hogan/Slaughter at Wrestlemania VII. The first hint should have been the end of the Warrior/Slaughter match. Security guards line the aisle for Sarge's return to the dressing room, and the fan hatred is lukewarm at best. As an aside, it is amusing that Slaughter stayed with the AWA until the bitter end and never held the title. Yet Vince gave him the WWF title within six months.
1992 Royal Rumble
Let me take a few moments and lay out the reasons why this Rumble match is whitout question the greatest of all time. Not only is it a great match, it links all the participants together and just about every point of the match means something in the grander scheme. The match is really split into two parts. Part one is the prologue, Ric Flair enters third, Bobby Heenan goes apoplectic, and Flair fights for survival. The first part is setting up Flair for ironman status. There comes a point where Flair eliminates the Boss Man and Flair is left alone for several seconds. Then the fun starts with Roddy Piper entering the fray. Then Jake Roberts with his heel character, alternatively turning on Piper and Flair as the situation dictates. You have the Undertaker entering, the Savage/Roberts feud, the Hogan/Flair feud, Sid Justice becoming a legitimate force, etc. It is solid action for the last 20-30 minutes, and watching 15 years later I am surprised how quickly everything unfolds after number 30 enters.
The whole set and each event is an easy thumbs up really. I will not do star ratings, but let me take a shot at ranking the matches.
Rumbles
1. 1992
2. 1990
3. 1991
4. 1989
5. 1988
Non-Rumble Matches
1. Rockers vs. Orient Express, 1991
2. Ron Garvin vs. Greg Valentine, 1990
3. Jumping Bomb Angels vs. Glamour Girls, 1988
4. Jim Duggan/Hart Foundation vs. Dino Bravo/Rougeaus, 1989
5. Roddy Piper vs. The Mountie, 1992
Greatest Moments
1. Ric Flair wins WWF Title, 1992
2. Virgil turns face, 1991
3. Roddy Piper shocks the Mountie, 1992
4. Ultimate Warrior/Hulk Hogan showdown, 1990
5. Demolition enters first and second, 1989
Occasionally I take friends along to minor league games, and along with conversations via AIM I run into occasional misconceptions regarding minor league baseball. I thought it would be a nice time killer to quickly run over what every level of the minors entails.
AAA: Triple A baseball actually showcases relatively few prospects. The main reason is that AAA is the one level where there is an inordinate amount of pressure to promote a player. No one clamors to call up a player to patch a hole in Reading, but if Philadelphia needs help, the player comes up. The average AAA player is around 27 years old. Usually they are relatively experienced players who are finished developing, and while they are not budding superstars they play a very good brand of baseball. Players make relatively few errors compared to other minor league levels.
AA: I think AA showcases the most prospects. You might see more guys at lower levels, but at that point you don't know how they will pan out as prospects. The average player in AA is around 26 years old. Players are a lot like AAA in status but not quite as good. You'll see more errors and questionable play. Double A is usually considered the proving ground. It's been said that players who reach AA get to stick around in organized baseball. So you see many more experienced players at AA and AAA than you do at lower levels. For that reason players are more accustumed to breaking pitches, teamwork and the like. Some pitchers who get by at throwing junk find that hitters are not fooled here. Likewise, runners who stole lots of bases solely by their speed get thrown out a lot more often.
High A: The Florida State, California and Carolina Leagues. Players here are much younger and inexperienced. While the average Reading Phillie is 26 years old, only three players on the entire Clearwater roster are 26 or older. The average player is around 23 years old. Here you have a crop of players around 23-25 on their last gasp of trying to make something of themselves in baseball. You can usually tell a prospect simply by his age. If he's 22 or younger, he's worth keeping an eye on.
Low A: Much like high A except that the players are a level younger and less experienced. The average player is around 22 years old. In High A you might see an occasional veteran. There are NO veterans in Low A, unless a player is on a rehabilitation stint. Low A is the first level where the true prospects really begin to emerge.
Short Season A: This level is where most college draftees begin their professional careers, and where truly good younger players come up. The average player is around 21 years old. You often see players learning new positions often here. For that reason, play is sloppier. Both games I have witnessed at this level included multiple fielding miscues. Players have few professional stats at this level so it is difficult to separate the true prospects from the field unless you have a keen eye for talent.
Rookie: Just as the term would suggest, this is where most high school and International talent debuts. The average player is 20 years old. Rosters are much deeper here and in Short season, as teams can carry more than 25 players and choose which 25 to activate for that game (as I understand it). The quality of play here is almost certainly lower than that of Division I Collegiate Baseball.
There are other Rookie leagues such as the Venezuelan Summer League and Dominican Winter League. Most teams have strong scouting interests in those countries, and the leagues serve as a way for teams to sort out their international signees.
I hope this is informative, and I'll be happy to answer any questions.
Recently I stumbled upon Baseball America's archive of its Top 100 prospect lists from their inception in 1990 until today. John Sickels has a regular feature on his blog chronicaling the paths of some of the top players in baseball. I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at some of the players once considered top prospects in the Phillies systems. There are some hits (Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, Scott Rolen), and some duds (Ryan Brannan). More interestingly, there are guys who went on to big careers who were not top prospects, like Mike Lieberthal. I figured I would start this with a player viewed as a top prospect who crashed. Tyler Green made Baseball America's Top Prospect List three times, yet failed miserably as an MLB player.
The Phils drafted Green tenth overall out of the 1991 Amateur Draft. Perhaps they were mesmerized by visions of Dallas Green. In any case, Green must have had good raw stuff. His initial numbers back his ability. Green debuted with three starts in Short-Season A Batavia, and followed with two in High A Clearwater. His numbers in those starts included a 3-0 record, 28 IP, 10 Hits, 0 HRs, 14 BBs and 39 Ks. The walks were high, but the strikeout numbers were outstanding. Based on his scouting report and that showing, Baseball America rated Green the 26th best prospect in baseball.
1992 saw Green fast-tracked to AA Reading. In 12 starts he dominated again, pitching 62.3 innings, 46 hits, 2 HRs, 20 BBs and 67 Ks, 1.88 ERA. Green was promoted to AAA Scranton but only made two starts, pitching 10.3 innings and walking twelve, posting a 6.10 ERA. After the season Baseball America rated Green the number 31 prospect in baseball.
Missed time combined with an abysmal record (particularly with a high walk rate) usually indicates an injury. Unfortunately I can not find direct information confirming it. One thing for certain though is that Green never pitched as well again. In 1993 Tyler spent most of the season at AAA Scranton. His K rate fell to 6.62 per nine. His 3.95 ERA netted him a trip to Philly however where he was shelled in three appearances.
After that season Baseball America demoted Green all the way to 36. Without the knowledge of DIPS, Green's performance looked decent enough on the surface. He fell to earth in 1994. Spending the entire year in AAA Scranton, Green struck out just 95 batters in 162 innings, walked 77, gave up 25 home runs, and posted a 5.56 ERA. (The minors stayed in business during the MLB strike.) Green fell off the Baseball America Prospect list. Undaunted, the Phillies called Green to their rotation to start the 1995 season. Green compiled an 8-9 record with a 5.31 ERA, again with poor peripherals. Injuries would again strike, costing Tyler the 1996 campaign.
Green returned to Scranton in 1997, delivering a 6.10 ERA in 12 starts. Looking over those numbers, the Phillies realized they had no choice but to promote him. Green finished the year in Philadelphia, posting a 4.93 ERA in 14 starts. Green then pitched all of 1998 with the Phillies, delivering a 5.03 ERA. Green never again pitched in the majors. He had one more awful year in Scranton (4-6, 7.69 ERA), and drew his release. AAA Buffalo picked him up the next year and received an 8.38 ERA in 29 innings for their troubles.
Looking over Green, we have a pitcher who ha obvious talent, but was derailed by injuries. Even the surest of pitching prospects walks this minefield, which is why some sabermetrically inclined prospect mavens are increasingly hesitant to name a pitcher as the top prospect in baseball. See Ryan Anderson for an example. Thanks to the Stats Inc. 2001 Minor League Handbook for the numbers. The Baseball Cube page is in error regarding some of Green's 1992/93 stats with Scranton.
http://www.wnep.com/Global/story.asp?S=7338739" target="_blank">http://www.wnep.com/Global/story.asp?S=7338739
Thank god Cordaro lost. Him and his Yankee-loving attitude can go fuck themselves. Instead of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons, I now have the Yankees and their corporate interests grubbing every penny, catering to the well heeled and providing no excitement or incentives in return. The Yankees provided NO giveaway items this year. The atmosphere is completely dead, and the ONLY selling point is that these are the AAA Yankees.
The history in Lackawanna County is that the commissioners tend to stick their noses in the baseball team for publicity. In this case, Cordaro has negotiated a deal where an outside entity can buy the team. If they do, there is nothing stopping that entity from then moving the team. Which is likely, because Scranton is NOT in a class with Buffalo, Louisville or Columbus as far as cities go.
The Lehigh Valley IronPigs open up next season. They may be the lowly Phillies and not the mighty Yankees. But their management provides baseball for the FAN.
I don't usually blog about politics, but I feel the urge. Pennsylvania runs their primaries quite late in the season, around late April. Consequently, we have little say in the Presidential primaries. Political ads have begun popping up, but I have yet to see a plethora of spots for presidential hopefuls. Some of the local politicians have started in earnest. Two candidates air ads on local television for the Republican nomination for Pennsylvania's tenth district (More on the district later). Here is one hopeful, Dan Meuser!
A blogger for the Morning Call refers to Meuser as robo-candidate! Indeed, Meuser has that stereotypical conservative politician look about him. His commercial targets illegal immigrants, a popular hot-button issue when you have nothing else to offer. Here is what amuses me. The commercial refers to his ideas as "the Meuser Plan." I can just imagine him showing up for Congress the first day, when the House of Representatives tell Mr. Freshman Politician what he can do with his plan. Newbs do not exactly carry a lot of pull around Congress.
(As an aside, part of this glorious plan is to make English the official language. Personally, I have taken to crossing out all the latin words on my currency. You need to start somewhere.)
Chris Hackett also runs ads, his campaign promises to fight wasteful spending. There's a fresh idea. It bothers me mostly that campaigns involve such blatant pandering and empty promises, but I guess that is how the public reacts.
I mentioned the tenth district, and here is where this all fits in. This seat is currently held by a democrat. It was Republican from 1961-2005. The first candidate became Governor after one term, the second has a stretch of highway named after him. The third, Don Sherwood, was caught in a love scandal and was defeated in the last election. This seat is easily winnable for the Republicans, so no wonder they are eager to fight Chris Carney.
It's not my district, so I don't need to put much thought into it. We have our own long term Congressman (Paul Kanjorski-D) who is going to be opposed by Mayor Lou Barletta of Hazleton (he of the illegal immigrant crackdown). Democrats have won 24 of the last 25 elections there, so Barletta has an uphill battle.
What games are the most crucial games in a series. At times a media outlet will trot out a statistic claiming that the team that wins game one wins the series at such and such a percentage. Is that true, and if so, does that make game one an absolute necessity. A bout of extreme boredom at work set me on the path of exploring some mathematical exploration. Using a statistical model of each team having a 50/50 shot of winning each game, I caculated how much the odds of winning a seven game series changed with each situation, such as a team up three games to one or two games to zero. Here are the various situations in order from most important to least. Importance here is defined by what extent the game changes the odds of winning the series.
1. Game Seven
2. Game Six
3. Game Four when one team holds a 2-1 series lead
4. Game Three when one team holds a 2-0 series lead
5. Game Five when one team holds a 3-1 series lead
6. Game Five when the series is tied
7. Game Two
8. Game Three when the series is tied
9. Game Four when one team holds a 3-0 series lead
10. Game One
In order to test this, I took a look at real life results, specifically MLB's last 45 postseason series. In the real world, teams taking 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 series leads have won more often than we would expect. Teams taking a 3-0 lead have won less often, but that's entirely due to one outlier in 2004. Teams taking 3-1 and 3-2 leads have won almost <I>exactly</I> as often as we expect. I think the reason for the discrepancy in the first results is because when a team takes a lead, it is often because they truly are a better team, and thus are operating at odds better than 50/50.
Teams that have won game one since 1990 have won the series 71% of the time. That's significant, but then again teams that have taken game two as well have won 90% of the time, and that is another huge gain. I think if you looked at the results of any game, you would see the same result (except for game seven, which would give you 100%). You can shift the odds around to develop different percentages, but the order above would remain roughly the same.
I don't know if you can do anything with this, but I had it down on paper and figured I would print it.
About a month into the season, it's a good time to see how the kids are doing in the minors. Rankings are the preseason rankings courtesy of Baseball America. The letters in parenthesis refer to the league. They run in the following order, from highest to lowest.
AAA: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, International League
AA: Reading, Eastern League
A+: Clearwater, Florida State League
A: Lakewood, South Atlantic League
Short Season A: Batavia, New York-Penn League
Rookie: GCL Phillies, Gulf Coast League
1. Cole Hamels, SP (Age 22)
1-1, 1.77 ERA, 20 1/3 IP, 16 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 9 BB, 29 Ks (A+)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 14 Ks (AAA)
Hamels earned a call to Scranton after a good start in Clearwater, and absolutely steamrolled the Norfolk Tide in his first start. As long as he stays healthy, he is a premium talent.
2. Gio Gonzalez, SP (Age 20)
1-1, 1.48 ERA, 24 1/3 IP, 15 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 28 Ks (AA)
Gonzalez is a lefty on the short side of 6' tall. The usual concerns from scouts are the only mark on his report. His first four starts in AA are about as good as you can get from a 20 year old pitcher. He's bound to have a rough start here and there to drive back his rate stats, but early returns are outstanding. Gonzalez is close to breaking onto Top 50 prospect lists.
3. Greg Golson, OF (Age 20)
.159/.209/.206, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 1 SB (A)
63 at bats, one extra base hit. As Baseball Prospectus noted, "it would be nice if his performance bore the slightest resemblance to what the tools watchers say he can do." Maybe Golson has upside. But there is no way he deserves the number three ranking in the organization, no matter how thin it is. It is still early, but if I do not see results at the end of the year, I am writing him off.
4. Michael Bourn, OF (Age 23)
.230/.269/.324, 0 HR, 4 RBIs, 9 SB (AA)
Bourn's batting line includes three triples, and he has yet to be caught stealing. Bourn is an extremely fast runner with excellent plate discipline. The problem is that he has very little power, and pitchers are not apt to pitch around him when he will not drive the ball. That negates his ability to get on base. Bourn posted an acceptable .348 OBP last season, but that will not propel him to star status. Bourn is good defensively with a great arm, so at minimum he can provide a team with a 5th outfielder.
5. Scott Mathieson, SP (Age 22)
1-1, 4.26 ERA, 25 1/3 IP, 24 H, 12 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 30 Ks (AA)
That K:BB ratio is extremely good, and he does not allow an unusual number of home runs. Allowing twelve runs is more bad luck than anything else. Mathieson's carried this kind of stat line his entire career however. There are several who think Mathieson's future is as a power closer. Since he carried his ratios to AA, he at least has a future somewhere.
6. Daniel Haigwood, SP (Age 22)
1-1, 2.61 ERA, 20 2/3 IP, 17 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 17 BB, 17 Ks (AA)
Seventeen walks?! Ouch. Haigwood's other numbers are very good, but that is a serious red flag. It could be a sample size issue, or an indication of something lurking underneath. We need more data here.
7. Welinson Baez, 3B/SS (Age 21)
.250/.241/.393, 1 HR, 8 RBIs, 0 SB (A)
Yes, Baez's on base percentage is lower than his batting average. He has not drawn a walk in 56 at bats, while striking out 16 times. Baez has tools and had a great year last year after three shots at the Gulf Coast League. I am pessimistic at this point. Baez was a league repeater and lacks plate discipline. He's still got time though.
8. Mike Costanzo, 3B (Age 22)
.263/.310/.450, 3 HRs, 12 RBIs, 0 SB (A+)
Costanzo's numbers are slightly low, but given that it is less than a month in and the Florida State League is a tough hitters' league, it is not a serious problem just yet. Costanzo led Division I baseball in walks last year, so I do not think his plate discipline is an issue.
9. Brad Harman, SS/2B (Age 20)
.217/.286/.261, 0 HRs, 6 RBIs, 2 SBs (A+)
Harman had a great series in the World Baseball Classic for Australia, but has struggled mightily in the Florida State League. The walks are there, I think this is just a case of a slow start.
10. Jason Jaramillo, C (Age 23)
.250/.328/.385, 0 HR, 5 RBIs, 0 SB (AA)
The Phillies' Great White Hope behind the plate. The Phils' skipped a level for Jaramillo, and he's held his own so far in Reading. Considering his primary asset is his defense, this is certainly encouraging.
We've got a couple of Phillies' fans on this board. Instead of clogging the MLB thread in Sports, I figured I would post my thoughts here, and maybe we'll run with this throughout the offseason. What do the Phillies need to do to improve this offseason? I'll address the trouble spots.
1. Third Base
Abraham Nunez hit .211/.303/.273 this season in 322 at bats. That performance is a big reason why the Phils failed to reach the postseason. You can take that kind of performance from a slick fielding utility infielder, but it is unacceptable for a regular starter at any position. The problem the Phillies face is that the market is barren as far as infielders go this offseason. It looks like Aramis Ramirez will be available, but he will be expensive, he's streaky and his plate discipline is an issue. This is a place where the Phils might be well served to trade for a team's extra third baseman, such as Josh Fields (White Sox) or Mark Teahen (Royals).
2. Bullpen
Right now the Phillies' pen shapes up like this...
Closer: Tom Gordon
Setup Man: Geoff Geary
RHRP: Ryan Madson
LHRP: Matt Smith
The Phils have some options including Eude Brito, Clay Condrey and Brian Sanches. Brito's future in the majors is in the bullpen, and it is time to find out if he can play or not. Condrey's good as the last man in the bullpen who you can easily option back to AAA if you need the spot. Sanches had a great year in AAA, but I'm not certain that he is an MLB caliber reliever. Fabio Castro will probably end up in AA Reading for more seasoning. One option could be Yoel Hernandez, who has an excellent slider but missed most of the season due to injury.
There are several good options on the free agent market. David Riske has pitched seven seasons with a 123 ERA+ to show for it. Justin Speier has developed into one of the game's best middle relievers since he left Colorado three years ago. Chad Bradford's groundball tendencies would be a good fit in a hitters' haven like Citizens Bank Park. Boston reliever Keith Foulke also might be worth a flier. He had a poor year, but few free agents have his ceiling. Among the lefties, the top choices are Jamie Walker, Ray King and Steve Kline. Steve Kline is a very attractive choice. He's not only a gritty, dirtbag type of player, he's also a local product who hails from Sunbury, PA.
The Phils will be in good shape if they can sign one of those guys, and great shape if they get two.
3. Starting Pitching
So far the Phillies can count on Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jon Lieber to return next season. Jamie Moyer has a mutual option of that the Phillies should exercise their end. Gavin Floyd is a potential option, given that he is still only 23 years old and improving. In this market, you can't count on stardom. The only pitcher I would comfortably throw big money at is Jason Schmidt (or Mike Mussina, if the Yankees' decline his option). The best thing here is probably to find an innings eater who can keep the Phils in the game. Potential targets include Miguel Batista (useful due to his ability to convert to relief), Tomokazu Ohka, or Jeff Suppan.
4. Catching
There are no free agent catchers better than Carlos Ruiz, so Ruiz should be given every opportunity to win the starting job. Ruiz is a line drive hitter with an excellent arm behind the plate. Chris Coste is a capable backup who can also play the corners. Given Coste's versatility, it would be wise for the Phils to grab an extra backup. Gregg Zaun or Robert Fick would be good options here.
5. Right Field
Neither Aaron Rowand nor Shane Victorino hits quite well enough to play in a corner. It might be time for the Phils to finally indulge in Trot Nixon, settling him in a platoon with Jeff Conine (assuming he remains in Philly). As always, there are several outfield options for a team who can think creatively. Roward would be good trade bait to fill any of these five spots.
In any case, this should be an interesting offseason.
1976 vs. 2008
The Phillies have not seen many good teams over their history. Their greatest team is probably the 1976 squad. That team won 101 games, one of only two Phillies teams to do so. Unfortunately that Phillies team ran into a buzzsaw called the Big Red Machine, and thus failed to win the National League pennant. A Phillies player recently surmised that the Phils could win 100 games next season. If that happens, the 2008 Phillies could rank as the greatest in franchise history. So how do they stack up against the 1976 team? I thought it might be fun to take a look.
Catcher: Bob Boone vs. Carlos Ruiz
Bob Boone in the late '70s was a good defensive catcher who added some offensive contributions as well. Boone in 1976 saw his first good season at the plate, and he would follow up with three more. Carlos Ruiz is merely adequate at this point in his career. Boone made the All-Star team in '76
Advantage: 1976
First Base: Dick Allen vs. Ryan Howard
Allen was perhaps one of the most controversial baseball players of all time. An elite talent who constantly feuded with teammates and the press. Howard is immensely likeable. Allen suffered injuries late in his career and missed some time. Ryan Howard is about two seasons away from becoming the team's franchise first baseman.
Advantage: 2008
Second Base: Dave Cash vs. Chase Utley
Of course the nod goes to Chase Utley, so let me say a few words in favor of Cash. He spent three years with the Phillies, hit for good averages but no power. The raw numbers are unimpressive. Cash however made the All-Star team all three years. Of the twelve NL second baseman, he was second or third along with Davey Lopes. (Joe Morgan of course ranks first.) So when we pass over Cash, remember that he was a very good player.
Advantage: 2008
Shortstop: Larry F. Bowa vs. Jimmy Rollins
Larry Bowa got by on gamesmanship. He had some fielding ability and was a good baserunner. He could not hit much, even relative to a typical National League shortstop. Somehow Bowa received MVP votes for his efforts. Jimmy Rollins of course just won the MVP. Can't argue with that.
Advantage: 2008
Third Base: Mike Schmidt vs. Wes Helms
Next.
Advantage: 1976
Left Field: Greg Luzinski vs. Pat Burrell
This is a real interesting comparison. Both were power sluggers with little to offer in either speed or fielding. Burrell is a better athlete. Luzinski at this point was in the midst of a run of four consecutive top-ten MVP finishes. Burrell has one top-ten to his credit.
Advantage: 1976
Center Field: Garry Maddox vs. Shane Victorino
Maddox won eight gold gloves in a row beginning in 1975. In '76, he hit .330 with 29 stolen bases. For a '70s center fielder, that is a superstar. Victorino can field with the best of them. Maddox's OPS+'s at this point however were much higher. Another clear edge.
Advantage: 1976
Right Field: Jay Johnstone vs. Jayson Werth
Play Jay every day! Johnstone was a fourth outfielder who played so well that he forced himself into a starting role. Werth did much the same thing last season. Johnstone's ability to stay healthy gives him the edge here. You may remember him by the way from his role in Naked Gun. He is the batter Leslie Nielsen calls out in dramatic fashion.
Advantage: 1976
Bench: Tim McCarver/Bobby Tolan/Ollie Brown/Jerry Martin/Tom Hutton vs. Chris Coste/Greg Dobbs/Eric Bruntlett/T.J. Bohn/Chris Snelling
Bobby Tolan and “Downtown” Ollie Brown were mainly hitters. Tolan and Tom Hutton filled in for first baseman Dick Allen when necessary. Jerry Martin was a fifth outfielder type, while Tim McCarver covered catching duties. McCarver sat behind the plate when Steve Carlton pitched. The '76 club rarely used a utility infielder. The 2008 bench looks unimpressive at the moment. The problem with the modern bench is that the increased pitching staffs have eliminated roles for extra hitters.
Advantage: 1976
Ace Starter: Steve Carlton vs. Cole Hamels
Is Carlton over Hamels really that clear? Carlton from 1974-76 went 51-34, with ERA+ figures of 117, 105 and 114. Hamels over the last two years put up a 115 and 134. Carlton would explode into an all-time great in 1977, winning the first of three more Cy Young awards. In 1976 though, Carlton was not at that level. Cole Hamels is clearly a better pitcher. The only question is how much credit do you give Carlton for durability? Thirteen pitchers compiled more innings than Carlton over that 1974-76 stretch, so he was not an anomaly of his time.
Advantage: 2008
Rotation: Jim Kaat/Jim Lonborg/Larry Christenson/Tom Underwood vs. Brett Myers/Jamie Moyer/Kyle Kendrick/Adam Eaton
Myers put up ERA+'s of 118 and 120 before moving into the bullpen for 2007. Jim Kaat won 20 games in both 1974 and '75 with superior ERAs. He fell off in 1976. Lonborg vs. Moyer is interesting, both had mixes of good and bad seasons. Lonborg from 1974-76 went 43-29. Moyer over the last three years is 38-33, but that includes a 6-12 stretch with a bad Mariners club last year.
Christenson and Kyle Kendrick were both 22 year old starters. Christenson pitched 168.7 innings, gave up 8 home runs, 42 walks and 54 strikeouts. Kendrick pitched 121 innings, 16 home runs, 25 walks and 49 strikeouts. Kendrick had a much better ERA. Tom Underwood was another 22 year old. He had some up and down seasons but none as bad as Eaton's 2007. Really, this one is too close to call for my comfort.
Advantage: Push.
Bullpen: Ron Reed/Gene Garber/Tug McGraw/Ron Schueler/Wayne Twitchell vs. Brad Lidge/Tom Gordon/J.C. Romero/Ryan Madson/Francisco Rosario
Lidge at his peak is an elite pitcher, but neither of his last two seasons tops Ron Reed in 1976-77. Garber had a better season in '76 than Gordon last year, but Gordon's established performance gives him the edge there. McGraw over Romero is not as clear-cut as you might think. McGraw's ERA+ from 1972-76: 197, 94, 86, 126, 143. Romero from 2003-07: 91, 135, 128, 68, 243. Ron Schueler was a mediocre pitcher enjoying a fluke year, Madson is better. Ditto Wayne Twitchell. One reliever pitched a single additional game for the '76 club. The 2008 team looks bad due to lack of depth, but the '76 Phillies literally had nothing.
Advantage: 2008
The 1976 Phillies won 101 again in 1977. If the 2008 club is to match up with that standard, they have their work cut out for them. The 1976 club had more hitting depth, the 2008 Phils have deeper pitching and a historically good infield. I hope the Phillies can make a run at 100 wins though. The team has lacked an all-time great season, and this is a great shot with their entire core firmly in their prime.
Let's run with this. Some of the rankings might be off by one or two. I'll never be satisfied as a whole, and in general it's impossible to really create a solid list. I just hope to avoid making some stupid mistakes.
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
A strikeout an inning at AA and AAA, just 21 years old.
2. Jason Donald, SS
Gotta love a shortstop who can post a .500+ slugging percentage.
3. Dominic Brown, OF
The scouts love him. I'll buy into the hype.
4. Lou Marson, C
I have qualms about his power, but it's much easier to go with the flow on this one.
5. Michael Taylor, OF
Took a huge jump in one season.
6. Kyle Drabek, RHP
Looks great in the Hawai'ian league. Ace potential.
7. Travis D'Arnaud, C
8. Zachary Collier, OF
9. Joe Savery, LHP
Bad season, but peripherals weren't terrible. Deserves another look.
10. Jason Knapp, RHP
11. Sebastian Valle, C
12. Vance Worley, RHP
13. J.A. Happ, LHP
I'm leary even rating him this high. He walks far too many batters for a pitcher without blow away stuff.
14. John Mayberry Jr., OF
Hard to dismiss this kind of power potential. Doesn't strike out as much as you'd think for a player of this profile.
15. Michael Stutes, RHP
Statistics are impressive, but really lacks impressive stuff. Even watching him, you think nothing of it and all the sudden, you have 8 K's marked on your scorecard.
16. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
Big HR rate in Reading is a red flag.
17. Freddy Galvis, SS
Bat is iffy, but I LOVE the defense. This is a guy I want to watch.
18. Julian Sampson, RHP
While not striking out batters, extremely low HR rate is a good sign for a young pitcher. Keep an eye on this one as a possible Chien-Ming Wang type.
19. Michael Cisco, RHP
Completely under the radar, but posted a 30/0 K:BB ratio as a starter in Lakewood, with no home runs.
20. Drew Naylor, RHP
21. Edgar Garcia, RHP
Never impressive, but still very young.
22. Quintin Berry, OF
Should make a fifth outfielder someday with his speed. Complete lack of power.
23. Andrew Carpenter, RHP
Seemed to recover as the season developed. Thanks to an inning of mopup relief, he's forever a champion.
24. Sergio Escalona, LHP
25. Anthony Hewitt, SS
Performance was awful, but there's potential if he can learn to make contact.
26. Anthony Gose, OF
27. Michael Schwimer, RHP
6'8" reliever, posted high strikeout rates in Williamsport and did not allow a single HR.
28. Jeremy Slayden, OF
Why on earth has he never been pushed a level?
29. Chance Chapman, RHP
Old for Lakewood, but I think he has a future career as a reliever.
30. Brad Harman, 2B/SS
Performance was bad, but he's still quite young, plays defense well and has some power. Possibly a utility infielder in the future. He put on a show at the last World Baseball Classic for Australia, and should get another chance this time around.
Let's take a look at the Phillies' top 30 prospects and see how they look with less than three weeks left in the minor league season. Little statistics here, just opinions and analysis. If you need numbers, they are readily available.
1. Carlos Carrasco
Good season, showing he can handle AA and making two good starts now in AAA. Not dominant, but probably a good mid-rotation starter in the making.
2. Adrian Cardenas
Performed well in Clearwater before a trade to the Oakland organization. Now promoted to AA Midland, where the Athletics have moved him back to shortstop.
3. Joe Savery
Disappointing showing, but low home run totals are encouraging. Savery has actually DH'ed in four games as well. Still a prospect.
4. Josh Outman
Outman actually performed worse when converted to the bullpen. Traded to Oakland, the A's have placed him back in the rotation and promoted him to AAA Sacramento.
5. Kyle Drabek
Coming back from Tommy John surgery, pitching in the Gulf Coast League. Next year will indicate where he stands.
6. Dominic Brown
Great plate discipline and some pop. Potential star player on the rise.
7. Greg Golson
That he can handle AA pitching and hit for average yet is a great sign. Strikes out often but shows a good approach at the plate. He is not a wild hacker.
8. Lou Marson
Top-notch AA season. Phillies' catcher of the future.
9. Andrew Carpenter
Hugely disappointing season, only now showing signs of coming around.
10. Jason Jaramillo
Last really good offensive season was in Lakewood. A non-prospect, IMO.
11. J.A. Happ
Has good minor league numbers but looked bad in the Majors. At 25, he's short on time.
12. Scott Mathieson
Second Tommy John surgery. A longshot.
13. Freddy Galvis
Slick fielding shortstop. Not producing much in Low A but not completely overmatched. Still very young.
14. Edgar Garcia
Getting hammered at AA. Garcia has always been young for his levels, never impressive but always climbing the ladder.
15. Jason Donald
Big season, climbing into the Phils' top ten next season.
16. Travis D'Arnaud
Performance at Williamsport behind his already good defensive reputation will shoot him up the charts. If this has seemed an overly optimistic view of the Phillies' system, wait til we're finished.
17. Heitor Correa
Has not pitched.
18. Travis Mattair
Not performing well at Lakewood. Has at year a year to turn things around.
19. Julian Sampson
Good groundball pitcher, but not getting many strikeouts. Again, has a year or two to improve yet.
20. Brad Harman
Showing power, but numbers otherwise disappointing in AA Reading. He has a future if he can stick at shortstop, probably as a utility infielder.
21. D'Arby Myers
Did so badly at Lakewood that he got pushed back to Williamsport. A good athlete but status is slipping fast. Too bad. "I'm thinking D'arby" could have been big.
22. Carlos Monasterios
Poor season in Clearwater. Does not look like that Bobby Abreu trade will pan out.
23. Quintin Berry
Currently riding a 30 game hitting streak. Speedy, not much power. He could be a fifth outfielder down the road.
24. Joe Bisenius
At 25, if you can not handle AAA and do not dominate AA, you're not a prospect.
25. Tyler Mach
Retired.
26. Antonio Bastardo
Very good strikeout numbers, but beginning to struggle at higher levels. Has a future as a reliever.
27. Mike Zagurski
Tommy John surgery.
28. Matt Spencer
Traded to Oakland after a disappointing FSL campaign. He's hitting (albeit hacking) at High A Stockton. He was skipped a level, so I'd wait before writing him off.
29. Drew Naylor
Great season in Lakewood but struggling in Clearwater. Still an encouraging campaign.
30. Lincoln Holdzkom
Rule V pick returned to Boston before the season.
Next, five players who emerged this season.
Michael Taylor. Great numbers combined between Low and High A. One of the highest OBPs in the minors.
Michael Stutes. 0.85 ERA with matching peripherals in ten starts.
Jason Knapp. Strong strikeout numbers for high school draftee in GCL.
Zach Collier. Early numbers from supplemental draftee are encouraging.
Justin De Fratus. 20 year old pitching well in Williamsport.
Ten years ago, Baseball America started listing top prospects by team. The Phillies at the time had a weak system, and BA chose reliever Ryan Brannan as the Phillies' top prospect. Brannan never reached the major leagues. Over ten years have passed, so now it is apparent whether any of the Phillies' farm products at the time became successes or failures. Looking back, could any of their players made better picks as top prospects? I drew up a list of the top ten based on current career win shares. Players in the organization as of January 1, 1998 and claimed rookie eligibility status.
1. Jimmy Rollins, SS (18 years old)
Sally League: 270/332/370, 46 stolen bases
Impressive second year, as Rollins displayed a bit of pop, plate discipline, lots of speed. A shortstop who happened to be one of the youngest players in the league AND exceeded the league OPS is certainly a top prospect.
2. Randy Wolf, LHP (20 years old)
NY-Penn League: 4-0, 1.57 ERA, 40 IP, 8 BBs, 53 K's.
Wolf was the Phillies' second round pick in the 1997 draft. It is hard to put a lot of stock in 40 innings. Michael Cisco would qualify as a top prospect under the same criteria. It would be interesting to go back and read scouting reports on this one.
3. Marlon Anderson, 2B (23 years old)
Eastern League: 266/318/374, 27 steals in 42 attempts.
Those numbers are hardly impressive at all. Low average, little power, high caught stealing rate. Anderson would explode for 62 extra base hits the next year in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Anderson spent a couple years playing second base for the Phillies before settling in as a valuable spare part for the New York Mets.
4. Desi Relaford, SS (23 years old)
International League: 267/323/400, 29 steals.
You want a higher batting average, but that's not bad from a 23 year old SS in AAA. Relaford bombed as a starter though in 1998. Relaford got mileage out of a career as a utility infielder. His placement on the list is due to longevity rather than real ability.
5. Johnny Estrada, C (21 years old)
NY-Penn League: 314/341/489.
223 at bats, 9 walks and 15 strikeouts? How do you evaluate a player like that? Estrada never got his OBP up. He reached the Majors in 2001 thanks to an injury to Mike Lieberthal, but was terrible. He had a solid year with the Braves in 2004, but otherwise he was a poor hitter. A player like this lives and dies on his batting average and when you do that, it better be closer to .320-.330.[/i]
6. Carlos Silva, RHP (18 years old)
Appy League: 2-2, 5.12 ERA, 58 IP, 14 BBs, 31 K's.
Home run rates are unavailable, so I don't know if Silva's ground ball tendencies were readily apparent. While Silva crashed and burned in 2008, he's had a fine career thus far as a starting pitcher.
7. Adam Eaton, RHP (19 years old)
Sally League: 5-6, 4.18 ERA, 71 IP, 30 BBs, 57 K's.
Nothing in the stat line really stands out. The Phillies packaged Eaton to the Padres for Alan Ashby before the 2000 season. Eaton had a 4.13 ERA in 2000 and since then has NEVER posted a better than average ERA in a season of any length.
8. Bobby Estalella, C (22 years old)
International League: 233/321/418
A beast. Estalella had power to spare, and was built like a truck. Unfortunately he had yet to hit for an acceptable average. Estalella exploded the following season in Scranton, posting a .993 OPS in 76 games. Estalella hit just .216 though in 904 MLB at bats.
9. Wayne Gomes, RHP (24 years old)
International League: 38 IP, 24 BB's, 36 K's, 2.37 ERA
MLB: 42.7 IP, 24 BBs, 24 K's, 5.27 ERA
How the heck did this guy ever come around with those peripherals. Gomes had three decent seasons from 1998-2000, before losing effectiveness.
10. Derrick Turnbow, RHP (19 years old)
Appy League: 24 IP, 16 BB, 7 K's, 7.50 ERA.
Wow. Turnbow found his stuff for one good season in Milwaukee, but otherwise he had extreme control issues his entire career.
I think Rollins and Wolf were obvious talents at the time. The rest are generally a collection of journeymen who had lengthy careers as reserves. In retrospect, Rollins probably should have been the number one prospect.
Coming up with a list of the Phillies' Top 30 prospects, a step ahead of Baseball America.
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
2. Jason Donald, SS
3. Michael Taylor, OF
4. Dominic Brown, OF
5. Travis D'Arnaud, C
6. Kyle Drabek, RHP
7. Lou Marson, C
8. Zack Collier, OF
9. Vance Worley, RHP
10. Joe Savery, LHP
11. J.A. Happ, LHP
12. Sebastian Valle, C
13. Michael Stutes, RHP
14. Jason Knapp, RHP
15. John Mayberry Jr., OF
16. Edgar Garcia, RHP
17. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
18. Drew Naylor, RHP
19. Andrew Carpenter, RHP
20. Quintin Berry, OF
21. Freddy Galvis, SS
22. Julian Sampson, RHP
23. Michael Cisco, RHP
24. Sergio Escalona, LHP
25. Jeremy Slayden, OF
26. Anthony Gose, OF
27. Brad Harman, 2B/SS
28. Michael Zagurski, LHP
29. Anthony Hewitt, SS
30. Jason Jaramillo, C
This is a work in progress. Any questions, comments or suggestions are more than welcome. I'm curious to see how it stacks up against BA's list later this offseason.
Rather than bury this in an old discussion, I figured I would start anew.
Let me reexamine the top 10 as ranked by Baseball America before the season and then I'll hit on the other prospects Pinjockey discusses.
1. Cole Hamels, SP
Cole Hamels had an extraordinary ascent through the minors before struggling at the Major League level. He's struck out a batter an inning though, and control was usually not a problem in the minors. The big thing is that Hamels has reached a career high in innings pitched. Hamels is still on track.
2. Gio Gonzalez,SP
112 strikeouts in under 100 innings for a 20 year old in AA is highly impressive. The home runs as Pinjockey said are high, but Reading's a fairly good home run park. He'd cut that in half in Scranton. Gonzalez needs to cut down on the walks, but he's another top flight prospect still on target.
3. Greg Golson, OF
The best athlete in the system. That would be even more impressive if he could play baseball. This is Golson's second year at Lakewood and he still can't hit. .220 batting average with 92 Ks against 18 walks. Until Golson actually produces, he's not a prospect in my view.
4. Michael Bourn, OF
Bourn's made a hell of an impression in Scranton, hitting three triples, stealing bases and playing great defense, all in his first week. I think he'll cool off as word of his weaknesses gets around. Bourn has great speed and plate discipline. The problem is that he lacks power, and pitchers will challenge him and defenses will play shallow. There's a fine line between great leadoff hitter and Jason Tyner. I think Bourn at minimum is a good 5th outfielder.
5. Scott Mathieson, SP
I don't think the Phils could have asked for a better season so far. Mathieson dominated AA, went to the majors and held his own, and just made a good start at Scranton. He's still just 22, and his fastball sits in the mid-90s. This is a big IF, but imagine a rotation of Brett Myers (25), Ryan Madson (25), Gavin Floyd (23), Cole Hamels (22), Scott Mathieson (22) and Gio Gonzalez (20). That's a ton of young pitching, and I don't think most fans realize how much the Phils have.
6. Dan Haigwood, SP
Traded to Texas for P Fabio Castro.
7. Welinson Baez, 3B
Baez finally hit on his third trip through Rookie ball and kept it up through Short Season A last year. It was a fluke. Baez is hitting .216 in Lakewood with 111 strikeouts in 287 at bats. Not a prospect at this point.
8. Mike Costanzo, 3B
Mike at least has the excuse of skipping a level. He walks, but that's about it. I doubt Costanzo's got much potential.
9. Brad Harman, SS
Harman drew good reviews as part of Australia's entry into the WBC. His power dropped off a cliff though, and he does not look like much. Harman's young though, and given that the FSL is a pitchers' league I would give Harman another season before writing him off.
10. Jason Jaramillo, C
Jaramillo's struggled this year, but given that he skipped high A and that he's a better defensive catcher, it's not as bad as it looks. Jaramillo's probably at least got a future as a backup.
Early reports on Edgar Garcia are encouraging to a point, particularly the 19/1 K:BB ratio. The low K rate worries me slightly, but he is extremely young yet. Jeremy Slayden is a few months younger than Josh Kroeger. Kroeger's in AAA, Slayden's in Low A. Slayden would have to be a hell of a hitter to make up the difference in levels. He's not a prospect. Carlos Carrasco is having an extremely impressive season, and has easily moved into the Phillies' top ten.
I'm surprised the last one is six weeks old already. Damn.
The Phillies' minor league season is over, and I'm mulling over a list of the Phils' Top 20 prospects. Considering prospects from Triple A to Low A is a fairly simple matter. The stats can give you about 70-90% of what you need to know. In Short Season A and Rookie ball though, it's a crapshoot. You've got 18 year old kids in a league too far down to project, along with a sample size too small to trust. You really need good scouts to evaluate prospects at that level. I don't have that luxury. Baseball America though is printing their top 20 prospect lists from each league over the next few weeks. It's a useful guide for getting a start on the lower tier prospects. Five Phillies made the list from the Gulf Coast League.
7. Adrian Cardenas, SS
12. Kyle Drabek, RHP
14. Jesus Sanchez, C
17. D'Arby Myers, OF
19. Carlos Monasterios, RHP
Cardenas has hit but his defense is troubling and his future may lie at another position. Drabek's highly touted but his makeup is questionable. Sanchez and Monasterios I know little about besides the fact that neither has gone 20/20 in the majors or posted a .400 OBP. D'Arby Myers was one of the top hitters in the GCL, but his BB:K ratio is poor. I know little personally about their long term prospects, so I defer to Baseball America. I wouldn't switch these guys around unless I had overwhelming evidence to do so.
EDIT: The NY-Penn rankings are out, and no Phillies made the list. RHP Edgar Garcia is the only person on that club who really inspires immediate notice. The South Atlantic League rankings place Carlos Carrasco fifth (the top pitcher), Matt Maloney 19th and Josh Outman 20th.
Last night I drove down to Reading for the Phillies/BaySox game, and I had an opportunity to watch Gio Gonzalez pitch. Sometimes the statistics don't tell you everything about the player. Other times they're dead on. Gonzalez is one of those pitchers who appear exactly as the stats would have you believe. Gonzalez has absolutely fantastic stuff. His control wavers however, as he's walked about 4.5 batters per nine innings. Even though he walked just one batter in his start, he started the game by working all three batters in the first inning to full counts. The control problems are probably the root cause of his home run rate as well. He'll work a batter to a 2-0 or 3-0 count, has to groove a fastball, and with Reading being a good hitters' park, the results are devistating.
Gonzalez is just 20 though, and there are few pitchers his age that are better. He's got plenty of time to progress, and if his control comes around he's going to be a good one.
Jeremy Slayden vs. Josh Kroeger
The Phillies' farm system is so devoid of hitting that any hitter with a pulse garners attention. Jeremy Slayden is such a case. Slayden was drafted out of college last season and is currently enjoying a fine season at Low A Lakewood, hitting .301/.370/.511. (This is the standard Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Pct. line.) Meanwhile, Josh Kroeger is having an awful season at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, hitting just .223/.262/.348. Kroeger is entirely off the radar at this point. Both are corner outfielders. Slayden has better raw stats, but it is MUCH easier to hit Low A pitching than to hit AAA pitching.
The catch is that both players are almost the same age. Slayden was born in July of 1982, and Kroeger in August of the same year. Slayden is actually older despite playing in a league three levels lower. We have a little tool handy called MLEs (Major League Equivalencies). MLEs take a player's current statistics and adjust them to a Major League context. Most minor leaguers look awful but that's ok. If they were good enough to be in the majors they would be in the majors (for the most part). This allows us to directly compare Kroeger and Slayden. They're the same age and they play the same position. Who's better?
MLES
Slayden: .206/.249/.350
Kroeger: .199/.232/.310
Slayden comes out ahead, even with the difference in levels. The point is however that we need to keep things in perspective. Slayden's having a nice year but he's 23 and a LONG way from the majors.
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/15267563.htm
From Todd Zolecki's column this morning.
I could've used more details of how the Phils' bench hampered them, but this is absolutely correct. On Friday, the Reds intentionally walked Ryan Howard three times because there was no one on the bench. Right now the Phillies are employing a four man bench and those four players had a combined 91 career at bats coming into this season. Chris Roberson just can't hit (although he's useful as a defensive replacement and pinch runner).
Eight relievers is overkill. Fabio Castro is a useful mop-up man who will take the ball every day. Brian Sanches isn't going to win games with his pitching and it's useless to keep him around for the heck of it.
A friend asked me the other day if Ryan Howard would make the Hall of Fame, and I said he does not have a prayer. My friend was stunned, and I explained why. In the history of baseball there has been just ONE player who became a regular at the age of 25 and went on to have a Hall of Fame career (Sam Rice). Look at the list of players above. Ed Mathews was 21 when he hit 40+ home runs. Dimaggio was 22, and Klein, Kiner and Banks were 24. Jim Gentile was 27, and he's the odd man out.
It's not that Gentile was a bad player. Gentile got a late start because he came up in the Dodgers system when they were overstocked with outfielders. Gentile was finally traded to the Baltimore Orioles before the 1960 season. (On a fun side note, one of the players the Dodgers acquired in this deal was a career minor leaguer named Bill Lajoie. Lajoie is now a senior executive in the Red Sox' front office.) Gentile hit 21 home runs his first year, and 46 the next (an expansion year). The raw stats make the next years look worse than they really are. After 1961, the majors took steps to reduce offense. Gentile was still a good hitter for several seasons. A trade to the Astros and their spacious dome harmed his raw numbers moreso, and Gentile retired in 1966. I doubt Ryan Howard will have the same issue with playing environments.
Over/Under
I'm establishing a rule for myself. 15 overs and unders. Let's see where that leads.
Baltimore Orioles 66.0 66.0 UNDER
Florida Marlins 69.0 69.0 UNDER
Pittsburgh Pirates 70.0 70.0 OVER
Kansas City Royals 71.0 71.0 OVER
Washington Nationals 72.0 72.0 OVER
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 73.0 73.0 OVER
San Francisco Giants 73.0 73.0 UNDER
Oakland Athletics 74.0 74.0 OVER
Texas Rangers 75.5 75.5 OVER
Minnesota Twins 75.5 75.5 OVER
Houston Astros 76.0 76.0 OVER
Chicago White Sox 77.0 77.0 UNDER
Cincinnati Reds 79.0 79.0 OVER
St. Louis Cardinals 80.0 80.0 UNDER
Colorado Rockies 83.0 83.0 UNDER
San Diego Padres 84.5 84.5 OVER
Seattle Mariners 85.0 85.0 UNDER
Milwaukee Brewers 85.0 85.0 UNDER
Toronto Blue Jays 85.5 85.5 UNDER
Arizona Diamondbacks 86.0 86.0 OVER
Los Angeles Dodgers 86.5 86.5 OVER
Philadelphia Phillies 86.5 86.5 OVER
Atlanta Braves 87.0 87.0 UNDER
Chicago Cubs 89.0 89.0 UNDER
Cleveland Indians 89.5 89.5 OVER
Los Angeles Angels 92.5 92.5 UNDER
Detroit Tigers 93.0 93.0 UNDER
New York Yankees 93.5 93.5 UNDER
New York Mets 94.0 94.0 UNDER
Boston Red Sox 94.5 94.5 OVER
I noticed that I tended to go the over on mostly sub-.500 teams and under on mostly over-.500 teams. As a whole, I think most teams are ranked fairly on this list. For example, the Cubs are listed above the Brewers. I took the under on the Cubs and over on the Brewers. I still think the Cubs are favorites, I just think the win margin will end up 88-86.
I will be happy to answer questions about individual teams. The Astros replaced three awful players in their lineup (Ausmus, Biggio and Everett) with J.R. Towles, Kaz Matsui and Miguel Tejada. Their rotation sucks, but it sucked last year too, no loss. And it's a weak division.
The Pirates will no doubt finish below .500, but 92 losses? Not a sure thing in the NL Central. The Pirates are an odd team in that they are bad, but they lack truly bad players. They just do not have a truly standout player on their team. (Unless Jason Bay rebounds.)
Philadelphia Sports
I wanted to clarify my supposed Eagles hate. I don't hate the Philadelphia Eagles. If I watch a football game I cheer for them, and if they are in the Super Bowl, I will watch. (More on that later.) The problem comes from the Philadelphia fan base. In 2005, I attended a game between the Phillies and the Florida Marlins, September 9, 2005. The Phillies were fresh off a five game losing streak, and fell behind 4-1 by the third inning. Among the fans, an E-A-G-L-E-S chant struck up.
The general problem is that the fans do not stick behind their teams and support them. At the slightest provocation, they turn on the team and voice their displeasure when things go wrong. The tone of the crowd was, "we give up, we support another team now with a better chance." Of course the Phillies won the game 12-5 and made an admirable run towards the wild card (and fell short.) I think it hurts the local teams that the fans are not more generally supportive. It's tiresome to listen to "woe is me" fans. The Phillies have been good the last several years, as have the Eagles.
So they did not reach the championship. Them and 29-31 other teams. I think fans need to give up championships/playoff wins as a barometer of success. Winning any playoff series is 50/50, and winning a championship at best is an 8:1 shot in the postseason. Long term win/loss percentage is the best measure of team success in sports.
Steroids
Today Congress spent another round of hearings due to the Mitchell Report. I think the big problem specifically is that the report contained information based on the early part of the decade, before Congress held their first hearings. They could not use the report to evaluate baseball's progress. Bigger than that however, I am generally tired of steroids entering the discussion. I am honestly not interested; I would rather hear and talk about transactions and what roster moves teams are making towards next season.
I am a big fan of baseball, as everyone knows. I love the competition. I do not wish to look at the game and wonder who is and is not on steroids. No one does really. I probably support some real bozos. I think Mark McGwire should go into the Hall of Fame. I would rather pretend they do not exist than let it invade every portion of baseball evaluation. That is likely not the wisest position to take. Think of it as a coping mechanism.
It's time for another sim tournament. The concept here is simple. The 64 best teams in organized baseball. One week, single elimination. All 30 MLB teams, all 30 AAA teams, and four AA teams. Much like the NCAA tournament, upsets galore. The basics are that there is no rest for teams. When you win, you go on to face a new team the next day. The four AA teams consist of the champions of the Texas, Southern and Eastern Leagues, plus the Reading Phillies (because it's my tournament and they're only Red Sox fodder anyway). The champions of the International and Pacific Coast Leagues get a home field matchup in the first round. Home field goes first to the team from the higher level, then to the team with the better record.
Here is how the field fleshes out.
Boston
Reading Phillies
Richmond
Nashville
Minnesota
Indianapolis
LA Dodgers
Norfolk
San Diego
Round Rock
Florida
Tucson
NY Mets
Charlotte
Chicago White Sox
New Orleans
Arizona
Ottawa
Kansas City
Iowa
Chi. Cubs
Las Vegas
Houston
Omaha
Atlanta
Pawtucket
Texas
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Durham
NY Yankees
San Antonio Mission
LA Angels
Trenton
Tampa Bay
Toledo
Milwaukee
Tacoma
Oakland
Albuquerque Isotopes
Colorado
Memphis
Baltimore
Fresno
Detroit
Syracuse
Washington
Salt Lake City
Philadelphia
Portland
San Francisco
Rochester
Seattle
Columbus
Cincinnati
Buffalo
Toronto
Colorado Springs
St. Louis
Oklahoma City
Sacramento
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
Cleveland
Huntsville Stars
Expect first round results next Saturday.
SECOND ROUND
Boston 10
Nashville 2
Minnesota 3
LA Dodgers 2
The Twins scored two in the seventh to take the lead for good. Johan Santana allowed two runs and struck out eight in 7 1/3 innings pitched.
San Diego 9
Florida 2
Scott Olsen allowed seven runs (five earned) and walked five and threw two wild pitches in less than four innings of work.
Chi. Sox 3
NY Mets 2
Eight innings and two earned runs allowed for Mark Buehrle, while Bobby Jenks picked up the save. Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye hit home runs in the victory.
Kansas City 3
Arizona 2
Brian Bannister drove in his own go-ahead run with an RBI double in the 7th, and the Royals held on to win against Brandon Webb.
Chi. Cubs 6
Omaha 5
Atlanta 17
Texas 5
NY Yankees 6
Pittsburgh 2
Alex Rodriguez hit two home runs for the Yankees in the win. Melky Cabrera drove in three.
LA Angels 4
Tampa Bay 0
John Lackey pitched eight shutout innings, striking out nine.
Oakland 7
Milwaukee 4
Travis Buck broke a 4-4 tie in the ninth with a two-run home run.
Colorado 10
Baltimore 6
The O's bullpen imploded, allowing seven runs in the final two innings.
Washington 7
Detroit 3
San Francisco 12
Portland 2
Buffalo 5
Seattle 4
Ryan Mulhern's home run in the first inning gave the Bison a 3-0 lead. The Mariners fought back, bringing the tying run to third in the ninth, but Ichiro struck out to end the game. Ichiro did drive in three of the Mariners' four runs.
St. Louis 7
Toronto 1
Cleveland 2
Sacramento 0
THIRD ROUND
Minnesota 4
Boston 3
Torii Hunter gave the Twins the lead in the first inning with a three run double. The Sox scored two runs in the ninth but their comeback fell short with the tying run on base.
San Diego 6
Chi. Sox 0
Jake Peavy pitched eight scoreless innings for the victory.
Chi. Cubs 4
Kansas City 2
Alfonso Soriano's three-run home run in the second inning sparked the offense for the Cubs.
Atlanta 7
NY Yankees 4
The Braves scored four runs in the fifth inning, including two on Kelly Johnson's triple. The Braves scored two insurance runs in the ninth on an E-5 and a passed ball.
Oakland 8
LA Angels 5
The A's scored seven runs in the fourth and fifth innings, led by three RBIs by Mark Ellis. Chad Gaudin and Jered Weaver combined for five wild pitches.
Colorado 6
Washington 0
San Francisco 11
Buffalo 6
The Giants dominated the mid-innings, breaking up a 3-3 tie in the fifth off Jeremy Sowers and cruising from there. Randy Messenger allowed three Buffalo runs in the ninth.
St. Louis 9
Cleveland 3
C.C. Sabathia allowed seven earned runs in the loss.
That leaves us with the elite eight. Tomorrow's matchups...
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Oakland Athletics @ Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
