SS- Jim Fregosi
CF- Alex Ochoa
2B- Alfonso Soriano
1B- Norm Cash
RF- Leon Roberts
LF- Gil Hodges
C- Jason Varitek
3B- Billy Ripken
P- Brad Radke
What kind of lineup is that? If similiarity scores have merit, it is a similar lineup to one posted by the Philadelphia Phillies down the stretch. Similarity scores seek to compare two players' statistics and measure their comparability. A score of 1000 would indicate two players who are exactly alike. Scores under 900 indicate players who are not very similar. Bill James developed the concept as a way of judging Hall of Fame arguments. Thanks to spreadsheets and computers, statisticians can instantly compare thousands of players to determine which players are MOST comparable. Baseball-Reference.com has taken the concept further, using similarity scores to measure players at specific ages. Miguel Cabrera is currently most comparable to Hideki Matsui. But if you compare him to other players when they were 23, Henry Aaron appears at the top of the list (as he has the last three years). This is a good omen for Cabrera's career.
Looking at a list of players comparables can give us an idea of what to expect from a player's career. A player with a lot of All-Stars and Hall of Famers is a good bet to continue to have a Hall of Fame career. Some players might have a mix of HOFers, and guys who flamed out early in their careers. If no players similar to a certain player produced much after that point in their careers, we would expect caution. With that in mind, let's take a look at the 2006 Phillies still under contract, and see what we might find.
Understand that when I look at comparables, I am looking at what they did AFTER the age of the player to that I am comparing. Also, Similarity Scores are NOT era adjusted.
C: Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz has only played 69 games in his career, so there is no comp list available. A list of players who played 69 games at the age of 27 would likely contain plenty of scrubs, but that's not entirely fair. You just can not draw a good list with too little data. The same holds true for fellow catcher Chris Coste. Free agent catcher Mike Lieberthal's best comps are Jason Varitek and Terry Steinbach. On average, Lieberthal's top ten comps played two more reasonably productive seasons.
1B: Ryan Howard. Howard's best comp is Norm Cash, an intriguing choice. Ryan Howard at the age of 26 hit 58 home runs. Norm Cash hit .361 with 41 homers, a huge fluke season later attributed to corked bats. Cash produced well into his late 30s hitting 20-30 home runs a season in an era where that reached the top ten.
2B: Chase Utley. Utley's best comps are Alfonso Soriano, Jeff Kent, Marcus Giles, Vinny Castilla and Pedro Guerrero. All of Utley's comps had huge careers with the exception of Giles, who still has time to rebound from a dismal 2006.
SS: Jimmy Rollins. Rollins' best comps are Jim Fregosi and Alan Trammell. Trammell had a great career. Fregosi flamed out early, but not before the Angels dealt him for Nolan Ryan. Rollins more than any other player has a big boom/bust quotent in his comp list. Along with Ryne Sandberg and Lou Boudreau, it includes weak hitters like Zoilo Versalles, Frankie Crosetti and Granny Hamner.
3B: Abraham Nunez. Nunez's best comp is Billy "F.F." Ripken. Ripken was an awful hitter. The only player on Nunez's list to hit above league average was Dave Anderson, who had 84 at bats left. The Phils desperately need an upgrade here.
LF: Pat Burrell. Burrell's best comp is Gil Hodges, a perennial Hall of Fame candidate. With respect to Hodges, this says more about why he isn't a HOFer. Most of Burrell's comps had 5-7 more years left, hitting about 10% above league average. I doubt that's worth $13.5 Million a season, but the Phils can live with that.
CF: Shane Victorino. Alex Ochoa, a player probably seen as an also-ran but was also a terrific fourth outfielder for a few years. Ochoa played five more years hitting league average. With Victorino's defense, that's a big plus.
RF: Aaron Rowand. Carl Everett. Fortunately this measures production and not attitude. It's difficult to get a read on Rowand's comp list because there are many current players on the list. Most of the others were league average hitters who played 5-6 more years.
SP: Brett Myers. Myers best comp is Brad Radke, who went 94-85 over the next eight seasons. Frank Viola is the best player on Myers' list, Sammy Ellis is the worst. No Hall of Famers, but a few All Stars.
SP: Jon Lieber. Lieber's best comp is Kevin Tapani, a player who finished 9-14 for the 2001 Chicago Cubs and then retired. Second is Shane Reynolds who didn't pitch past 37, third is John Burkett (25-17 over two years), and Charles Nagy (retired). Jamie Moyer is seventh on the list, and no other pitcher lasted more than two more seasons. The Phils only need one more good one.
SP: Cole Hamels. Hamels' best comp is Floyd Bannister, the father of Mets' pitcher Brian. Floyd pitched league average ball for 14 seasons. There are some good pitchers on the list, no real stars, but that's what you get with 23 starts. This list would look better if Hamels improves next year.
CL: Tom Gordon. Gordon's best comp is Charlie Hough, which seems a little. Gordon throws gas and a wicked curve from the bullpen. Hough threw a knuckleball. Gordon started and converted to the bullpen. Hough started as a reliever and converted to starting.
Another blogger did a mock NBA draft from the board, inserting himself into the spot of one of the participants. I decided to do the same thing with the wrestling draft in the General Wrestling folder. One twist, instead of taking a spot I am simply going to take a pick at the end of each round, picking last each time. Let's see how this goes.
1: "Nature Boy" Buddy Rogers. Wrestling's top heel in the 1950s into the '60s. An iconic figure for fans of that era, and a top draw.
2. Bruno Sammartino. Too popular to be ignored, despite relative lack of working ability.
3. Magnum T.A. Extremely popular babyface attraction.
4. Nick Bockwinkel. Top heel, both as a talker and a worker.
5. Classy Fred Blassie. A tremendous heel in his day, an outstanding talker as well.
6. Lou Thesz.
7. Bobo Brazil.
8. Mil Mascaras. A top babyface whose aerial offense could excite the crowd.
9. Jim Londos. A handsome undersized greek would make a tremendous babyface.
10. Killer Kowalski.
11. Mr. Fuji & Toru Tanaka. The beginning of a tag team division.
12. Billy Robinson. The worker/shooter of the promotion.
13. Ken Patera. Undrafted after 400+ picks? Get on the ball people!
14. Johnny Valentine.
15. The Fabulous Kangaroos (Al Costello & Roy Heffernan)
16. Antonino Rocca & Miguel Perez. A popular, main event, ethnic tag team.
17. Red Bastien. Top worker and face in the early 70s. Could occasionally team with Robinson.
18. Doug Somers & Buddy Rose.
19. Whipper Billy Watson. One of the biggest stars in Canadian wrestling history.
20. Jimmy & Johnny Valiant.
21. Don Leo Jonathan. Large, agile heel.
21 picks in, that looks like an extremely stacked promotion. Not a great workrate promotion, but most of these guys are no slouches in the ring and they know how to work a crowd. I'll fill in picks as they happen and later on unveil a fantasy wrestling card.
Three more picks.
22. Mr. Wrestling II. Popular performer in Georgia in the 1970s.
23. Superstar Bill Dundee.
24. Jay Youngblood. Great young babyface, passed before his time.
Often in historical discussions, a sportscaster might bring up a player such as Roberto Clemente or Sandy Koufax. They will cite the player's first few seasons, noting that while they were a superstar player, they struggled in their first few seasons in the majors. Koufax is a particularly good example. He reached the Majors at the age of 19, and in his first six seasons posted a rather pedestrian record of 36-40. This type of analysis misses a key point. Most comparable players were not in the majors at ALL at that age. A great deal of players were not yet even in professional ball.
Koufax played early in the major leagues because he was a "bonus baby." A player who earned a large bonus as an amateur was required to spend two seasons on the major league roster. This rule was intended to prevent teams from hoarding top amateur talent. Clemente was actually a Rule V pick, again a player required to play in the minors at an early age.
Often we tend to evaluate players by looking at career rate stats. Quirks in early or late career performance can skew these results however. I feel it is appropriate to focus on player's primes to get a fair evaluation of their true abilities. This is not the end-all of evaluation. Rather, it simply provides a second look at the great players, allowing us to avoid inaccurate ratings simply because of a fluke in the data set.
Over the offseason, I plan to rate the top five in baseball history at each position. I plan to use statistics, era adjustments, non-MLB players (i.e. negro leaguers), and perhaps even raw skills. These ratings may come out differently than expected, but I hope to find it a worthwhile and enjoyable project.
This is something that I had floating in my head the last few days. A lot of wrestling reviewers will give negative star ratings to a particularly bad match. Often times it is prompted not by the workers involved, but the sheer idiocy of the booking of the match. In many cases the reviewer goes into the match expecting to hate it. But what truly merits negative stars? In my opinion, it is not enough to put together a boring match. I think a negative star match must fit one of X criteria.
1. The match contained several noticeable, blown spots.
Let's see what they messed up here.
1. Nowinski comes in late to break up a pin attempt.
2. Trish attempts a springboard manuever but Gayda is out of position.
3. Trish attempts a leg sweep but Gayda fails to take the move properly, stumbling to the mat.
4. Trish tries twice to set up the bulldog but Gayda fails to position herself properly.
5. When Trish does go for the bulldog, she misses completely. Gayda sells it anyway.
That is an easy one, it won Wrestling Observer's Worst Match of the Year award for 2002. Now, even good wrestlers will blow spots. Good workers will work it into the flow of the match, making it somewhat indistinguishable for casual wrestling fans. Knowledgeable wrestling fans notice, but they know it is a work anyway.
2. The match contained booking so bad that it insulted the intelligence of the viewing audience.
The Fingerpoke of Doom. WCW advertised Goldberg vs. Kevin Nash and instead gave the fans a ten second "angle" match that turned many against WCW for good.
When does a comedy match merit negative stars? For the most part, if the crowd dies. If the crowd is into the match, you can't really punish the workers because you did not like it. I give an exception to a match such as The Four Doinks at Survivor Series '93. When working the match requires ignoring the established rules of the game, that falls under bad booking.
3. The match denigrated into a shoot with the wrestlers losing all cooperation, preventing the match from reaching an intended conclusion.
This one is extremely interesting, Bruiser Brody vs. Lex Luger. Brody sees fit not to sell anything Luger does until Luger just gives up, draws the DQ and leaves the cage.
I wish I could find Andre the Giant vs. Akira Maeda. I have seen it before. There is a perception often that a better worker gave it to the lesser worker and taught him a lesson, or exposed him. More often it just becomes a disorganized mess with both wrestlers standing awkwardly until someone steps in. Failing to complete a wrestling match is an overlooked, but deserving reason to issue negative stars.
What does not merit negative stars? Two workers stepping into the ring, giving a reasonably competent exhibition of professional wrestling but boring the audience. That merits a dud IMO. Dave Meltzer gave Andre the Giant vs. Big John Studd negative stars. That was a pretty dull match with no high spots outside the finish. But it looked legit and the crowd enjoyed it. That can not possibly be negative stars.
I rarely rate matches but if I did, my scale would give a basic match at least *, just for stepping in the ring. If the match was bad, that lowers the score as far as a dud, providing the combatants did not at least embarrass the sport. In my view, that is the criteria for negative stars.
I picked up Volume One of the Royal Rumble Anthology (1988-92) from Amazon.com. At $35 any of these sets is a great value, as each event comes out at $7 apiece. I do not know how many of you were WWF fans in the early '90s, but Coliseum Video copies of the events used to run in the neighborhood of $60. Next time your elderly neighbor complains about prices these days, remember not everything has gotten more expensive.
1988 Royal Rumble
It is harder to judge this event against the others, because it was not a standard Pay-per-view event. This show was essentially an episode of Saturday Night's Main Event with an extended battle royal attached. The Royal Rumble was not outstanding and not dull, and you got a Jumping Bomb Angels match in the deal. I still think the Islanders/Young Stallions match is poor. No crowd heat whatsoever and nearly ten minutes in-between falls. Given the show live must have run close to three hours, it has more of a vibe of "let's get this over with."
1989 Royal Rumble
The Rumble enough is solid enough but the undercard is very weak once you get past the opening tag bout. (Rougeaus and Dino Bravo against Hacksaw Jim Duggan and the Hart Foundation.) Actually there are only four matches on the show, including the Royal Rumble. The Rumble itself is again fairly good, with Demolition entering one/two, the compelling Hogan/Savage angle, the Savage/Bad News Brown feud, and the Hogan/Twin Towers feud coming into play. The match dies off with Hogan's elimination, but watching DiBiase get his comeuppance makes the match watchable.
1990 Royal Rumble
As a kid I used to fast-forward through the undercards to get to the Rumble match itself. As a result, I missed the Valentine/Garvin feud. There is great stuff between those two guys, and their submission match is a great battle of psychology, with each guy sporting their own shinguards, losing them mid-match, Garvin pelting Valentine with his own shinguard to set up the finish. Up until 2000-02 gave us some good Rumbles, this was the second best of the bunch.
1991 Royal Rumble
For the first time, this disc gave me the opportunity to watch Koko B. Ware vs. The Mountie (it was cut from the CV version). It does not matter much, but it would bug people who are completists. The overriding theme here is the patriotism in the wake of the Iraqi War. Vince really mis-measured fan reaction and it caused him to set up a drastic failure in Hogan/Slaughter at Wrestlemania VII. The first hint should have been the end of the Warrior/Slaughter match. Security guards line the aisle for Sarge's return to the dressing room, and the fan hatred is lukewarm at best. As an aside, it is amusing that Slaughter stayed with the AWA until the bitter end and never held the title. Yet Vince gave him the WWF title within six months.
1992 Royal Rumble
Let me take a few moments and lay out the reasons why this Rumble match is whitout question the greatest of all time. Not only is it a great match, it links all the participants together and just about every point of the match means something in the grander scheme. The match is really split into two parts. Part one is the prologue, Ric Flair enters third, Bobby Heenan goes apoplectic, and Flair fights for survival. The first part is setting up Flair for ironman status. There comes a point where Flair eliminates the Boss Man and Flair is left alone for several seconds. Then the fun starts with Roddy Piper entering the fray. Then Jake Roberts with his heel character, alternatively turning on Piper and Flair as the situation dictates. You have the Undertaker entering, the Savage/Roberts feud, the Hogan/Flair feud, Sid Justice becoming a legitimate force, etc. It is solid action for the last 20-30 minutes, and watching 15 years later I am surprised how quickly everything unfolds after number 30 enters.
The whole set and each event is an easy thumbs up really. I will not do star ratings, but let me take a shot at ranking the matches.
Rumbles
1. 1992
2. 1990
3. 1991
4. 1989
5. 1988
Non-Rumble Matches
1. Rockers vs. Orient Express, 1991
2. Ron Garvin vs. Greg Valentine, 1990
3. Jumping Bomb Angels vs. Glamour Girls, 1988
4. Jim Duggan/Hart Foundation vs. Dino Bravo/Rougeaus, 1989
5. Roddy Piper vs. The Mountie, 1992
Greatest Moments
1. Ric Flair wins WWF Title, 1992
2. Virgil turns face, 1991
3. Roddy Piper shocks the Mountie, 1992
4. Ultimate Warrior/Hulk Hogan showdown, 1990
5. Demolition enters first and second, 1989
Another year of baseball is finally here. Who cares if it is too cold to reasonably enjoy the game?
April 1, Lehigh Valley @ Reading (exhibition)
A cold front threatened this game. While every place in eastern PA got drenched, the rain somehow avoided Reading entirely. We were treated to a 66 degree gametime temperature, fantastic conditions. This game pit the Phillies' top two minor league affiliates against each other to benefit Baseballtown charities. I can not stress enough how terrific a place First Energy Stadium is. The staff puts together a tremendous gameday experience, prices are good, concessions are reasonable. Plus, you can see Jason Donald take a wizz in the dugout!
Lehigh Valley won 6-2.
April 3-5, Lehigh Valley @ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
The first official games for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Less said about the games, the better. As much as Reading puts into their gameday experience, Scranton does the opposite. No promotions, no excitement, barely any information for the fans. And that nice weather? Gone. Saturday was particularly fun. Afternoon game, bound to be a bit warm, right? 41 f'n degrees. And my dumb ass brought a short sleeve shirt. Put on a brave face though. Considered a sweater at the gift shop, but if someone bet me I couldn't make it through the game for $38, I'd take the bet.
Next week: Three games at Scranton, against the Louisville Bats.
SEMIFINALS
San Diego 5
Atlanta 4
WP: Heath Bell
LP: Peter Moylan
Sv: Trevor Hoffman
Brian Giles drew a bases loaded walk in the eighth inning to force in the winning run. The major turning point of the game occurred in the fourth inning, when Josh Bard drove in two RBIs with a two-out double and Justin Germano followed up with an RBI single.
Colorado 5
St. Louis 4
WP: Jeff Francis
LP: Ryan Franklin
Sv: Manuel Corpas
Troy Tulowitzki drove in the go-ahead run in the sixth with a single and David Eckstein's error in the eighth allowed an insurance run to score.
That gives us San Diego @ Colorado for the finals, fittingly.
As some of you might know, I have a part time gig scoring minor league games for an independant statistics company called Baseball Info Solutions. It's not well paying but it allows me to see more games than I would otherwise. This week I saw an entire four game series between AAA teams Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Richmond. The Richmond Braves are an affiliate of the Atlanta Braves and the Barons are of course an affiliate of the Phillies.
Tuesday: Red Barons 6, Braves 1
The are times the stat sheet gives you an indication that it might be a fun week. The Red Barons came in at 56-46 (.549), while the Braves came in at 38-63 (.376). Richmond is the worst offensive team in the International League, carrying a team slugging percentage of .343.
-The Braves had one chance of coming back at this. Down 5-1 in the 7th, the Braves placed runners on the corners with one out. Tony Pena popped out foul however, and Brayan Pena tried to catch Joe Thurston napping. B. Pena was thrown out at home. That's a good move down a run or tied, but down four it is a foolish gamble.
-Scott Mathieson dominated, giving up just three hits and one run over eight innings and striking out seven. I don't think there's a Phillies prospect who has taken a bigger step forward over the last year. Mathieson has obvious MLB talent, and it's a matter of time before he gets there for good. The question is whether he starts or closes. He's easily a guy who can turn into the next Jon Papelbon.
Wednesday: Red Barons 4, Braves 1
Sometimes something little can make a big difference in a game. The Braves got two quick outs in the third before Michael Bourn doubled. Joe Thurston singled, moving Bourn to third. Chris Roberson followed with a single of his own that plated Bourn. The ball was fielded deep in the hole by Braves' 2B Cesar Crespo however, and Thurston was dead between second and third. The Braves botched the rundown, and Thurston and Roberson ended up on third and second. Carlos Ruiz followed with a home run, and it's 4-0 Barons. In three pitches the Braves went from "should have been out of the inning" to down four runs.
That came back to haunt the Braves in the ninth, when they scored a meaningless run that would've tied the game had they executed the rundown.
Thursday: Red Barons 7, Braves 6 (12 Innings)
The Red Barons have given us a great season, with four really good starters right now. This time we got starter number five, Jeremy Cummings. The Braves were nice enough to oblige with a mediocre starter of their own, so this got brutal in the early goings. The lead changed about five times in the early going. 1-0 Braves. 1-1 after the first inning. Braves scored one in the third, Red Barons followed with two. Braves score two again in the fourth to retake the lead, and the Barons followed up with three in their half. The Braves scored one in the fifth to cut the lead to 6-5. Thankfully the starters came out at that point and things settled down.
Until the 9th. Mikey, who sits two rows behind us and has grown up at the park, says "I think he's gonna get shelled," referring to closer Brian Sanches. Some kids are too smart for their own good. That is going to be how my own grandchild acts someday. Leadoff hitter Gregor Blanco kicked off the inning with a 12 pitch walk. Tough break, but he earned it. Blanco stole second on a close play, drawing some vehiment disagreements. I thought Blanco was safe, but I was 120 feet away and I have bad eyesight. Cesar Crespo followed with a sac bunt, and pitcher Sanches tried to get the tough out at third. He didn't have a chance. The next hitter, Michael Ryan, groundout out, scoring the tying run. The Barons escaped with no further damage.
That is where everything got real fun. The umpire booted Carlos Ruiz from the game for arguing balls and strikes. Manager John Russell got tossed and presumably Brian Sanches was thrown out as well. The next half inning saw coach Sal Rende move to the third base coache's box and player Ryan Fleming take over coaching duties at first. (In AAA, the manager occupies the third base box. This was common in the majors before teams started employing ten coaches at a time.) The second batter, Michael Bourn, is informed that he too has been tossed. The only plausible explanation is that he was the same height as Carlos Ruiz. I do not usually take heat with the umpires but at this point it had become ridiculous. Our first base coach had to pinch hit.
Dusty Wathan came in to catch, and Josh Kroeger was used earlier as a pinch hitter. That left Juan Sosa as our last bench player. So of course Danny Sandoval was hit by a pitch in the 11th and had to come out. Pitcher Brian Mazone pinch ran for Sandoval, and reliever Ryan Cameron batted for himself. Juan Sosa came in as a defensive sub in the next inning. Ryan Cameron appeared to be in the game as long as possible, pitching three perfect innings.
Wathan hit the first pitch of the 12th over the right-center wall for a game winner. Wathan has won two games with extra inning home runs this year. Wathan has four home runs this year total.
-That was long winded, so let me throw this one out quick. The Braves made five errors, three alone by third baseman Jonathan Schuerholz. You might recognize the name, he's the son of the current Braves' GM. Some at the beginning of the year questioned his promotion to AAA, and suggested it was simply nepotism. Schuerholz has answered his critics by hitting .161/.248/.192 in 79 games. He can't hit for average, can't hit for power, isn't a baserunning threat (four steals in six tries), and apparently can't field. Intangibles? That does a world of good on a 38-67 team. This guy is EASILY the worst player in the International League. His father does him a disservice leaving him out to dry.
Little side note. Some woman asked me if I was a scout. She thinks she can get into professional baseball, and wants to meet Derek Jeter. She also swore she was on her first beer. She probably would have had better luck asking Yankees' first base coach Tony Pena, who happened to be sitting in the next section watching his son play ball. Tony Jr.'s not much of a hitter but good defensively at shortstop.
Friday: Red Barons 7, Braves 3
Brian Mazone isn't a prospect. He has however posted a 9-1 record since being promoted from AA Reading. He doesn't have great peripherals. He just somehow seems to be effective. He also has that one bad inning where he struggles, and the Braves got a run across in the second.
All four games in this series were decided by a home run. Brennan King's two run shot on Tuesday gave the Barons a 3-0 lead. Carlo Ruiz's three run homer was the difference on Wednesday. Dusty Wathan hit a walk-off on Thursday. This time, Joe Thurston hit a two out grand slam in the fourth. The game was 6-1 after that, and the game was never really competitive. The fortunate part was that none of the four games were blowouts. A blowout game is the worst because neither team particularly cares about getting effective pitching in the game.
Sandoval played after nearly being carried from the field the night before. He got the MLB call® right after the game, as did Tony Pena Jr. of the Braves.
I should have included this in my discussion regarding Hall of Fame relievers. How many relievers should go in the Hall? It is my firm belief that relief pitchers are simply not as good as starting pitchers. Why should a mediocre pitcher go ahead of a very good pitcher simply because he was placed in an easier role?
Easier role? Yes, there is a lot of talk placed upon the closer pitching in such a high pressure role, and how crucial he is to a team. The closer is important, no doubt. But the fact is that nearly all closers are pitchers who failed miserably as starting pitchers, if they even held that role. Hall of Fame reliever Rollie Fingers went 7-17 as a starter. Goose Gossage went 9-22. Lee Smith went 0-5 in six starts. Eric Gagne has a 4.68 career ERA as a starter. Mariano Rivera's ERA as a starter was 5.94.
There's an obvious bias at work. Relievers tend to be starters before their prime, and if they were great starters they wouldn't have been moved. Just out of curiosity, I wanted to take a look at starters, as relievers. This is more difficult because great starters in this era almost never make relief appearances. Ace starters in the dead ball era, such as Christy Mathewson and Mordecai Brown, used to double as their teams' relief ace.
David Wells made 171 relief appearances as a reliever. Wells had a 3.23 ERA as a reliever, compared to 4.13 as a starter. Pedro Martinez's ERA in 67 relief appearances is a paltry 2.18. There are a few counter examples. Curt Schilling had a lower ERA in the rotation. Again, there's a lot of statistical noise though.
What amazes me looking at pitchers like Gagne is that more teams do not make relievers out of their failed starting pitching prospects. The Cincinnati Reds just gave up two starting position players largely for bullpen help. Instead of paying top dollar for relievers, why not try to produce some of your own? A guy like John Stephens, ineffective in the rotation, could become the next Stu Miller.
There's room for relievers in the Hall. However, voters must be VERY selective. The current trend of allowing one every few years is wise. It's better to be frugal now than to elect many and make some irreversible mistakes.
I'm running a greatest teams tournament on Strategic Baseball Simulator, and I figured I would post the results here. I am running the tournament in the same manner of the College World Series. It is extremely unscientific, so take any results with a grain of salt. The tournament consists of four rounds...
Regionals
Sixteen separate four team brackets. The competition is double-elimination, meaning the losers fall into a second bracket. Teams are eliminated after two losses.
Super Regionals
Eight brackets of two teams each. Best of three games.
Semifinals
This is where the competition reaches Omaha in the College version. Again we have two brackets of four teams each, double elimination.
Championship
Final two teams in a best of three competition.
In order to even things up, I divided the tournament into four eras. 1901-34, 1935-65, 1966-87, and 1988-2005. Each era contains an approximately even number of teams in their talent pool. There have been about 2,100 teams since 1900, and each era contains about 550. (This is the kind of stuff you do to pass time in a boring class). Here are the entrants.
'14 BosN @ '06 ChC
'34 StL @ '32 NYY
'06 Cubs 3, '14 Braves 2
'34 Cardinals 5, '32 Yankees 1
'19 Cin @ '21 NYG
'35 ChC @ '12 BosA
'21 Giants 14, '19 Reds 5
'35 Cubs 3, '12 Red Sox 0
'19 CWS @ '29 PhA
'07 Det @ '27 NYY
'19 White Sox 8, '29 Athletics 3
'27 Yankees 8, '07 Tigers 6
'09 Pit @ '12 NYG
'24 Was @ '11 PhA
'12 Giants 9, '09 Pirates 6
'24 Senators 9, '11 Athletics 4
'50 Phi @ '53 NYY
'57 Mil @ '54 Cle
'53 Yankees 2, '50 Phillies 1
'57 Braves 4, '54 Indians 0
'62 SF @ '55 Brk
'41 Brk @ '46 StL
'62 Giants 10, '55 Dodgers 6
'41 Dodgers 10, '46 Cardinals 8
'65 Min @ '61 NYY
'46 Bos @ '63 LAD
'61 Yankees 7, '65 Twins 5
'63 Dodgers 3, '46 Red Sox 0
'35 Det @ '40 Cin
'59 CWS @ '39 NYY
'40 Reds 3, '35 Tigers 1
'39 Yankees 10, '59 White Sox 5
I'm taking a break from the games for a moment to briefly discuss the managers. Several managers have two teams in the tournament. Walter Alston manages three teams, the '55, '63 and '74 Dodgers. Here are the other multi-team managers.
Sparky Anderson ('75 Reds, '84 Tigers)
Bobby Cox ('92 Braves, '98 Braves)
Alvin Dark ('62 Giants, '74 Athletics)
Tony LaRussa ('88 Athletics, 2004 Cardinals)
Al Lopez ('54 Indians, '59 White Sox)
Connie Mack ('11 Athletics, '29 Athletics)
Joe McCarthy ('32 Yankees, '39 Yankees)
John McGraw ('12 Giants, '21 Giants)
Joe Torre ('98 Yankees, 2003 Yankees)
Top managers in career wins who are not represented.
1. Gene Mauch
2. Tommy Lasorda
3. Clark Griffith
4. Jimmie Dykes
5. Wilbert Robinson
'67 Bos @ '74 Oak
'84 Det @ '80 KC
'74 Athletics 4, '67 Red Sox 3, 12 Innings
'80 Royals 5, '84 Tigers 1
'69 NYM @ '80 Phi
'85 StL @ '70 Balt
'69 Mets 4, '80 Phillies 1
'85 Cardinals 5, '70 Orioles 1
'74 LAD @ '77 NYY
'79 Pit @ '86 NYM
'77 Yankees 6, '74 Dodgers 2
'86 Mets 5, '79 Pirates 4, 14 innings
'68 Det @ '67 StL
'82 Mil @ '75 Cin
'68 Tigers 2, '67 Cardinals 1
'75 Reds 8, '82 Brewers 4
'94 Mon @ '98 NYY
'02 Oak @ '04 StL
'98 Yankees 9, '94 Expos 8
'04 Cardinals 3, '02 Athletics 2
'04 Bos @ '92 Atl
'01 Sea @ '88 Oak
'04 Red Sox 11, '92 Braves 3
'88 Athletics 2, '01 Mariners 1, 10 Innings
'05 CWS @ '03 NYY
'02 SF @ '95 Cle
'05 White Sox 2, '03 Yankees 0
'95 Indians 5, '02 Giants 2
'01 Ari @ '92 Tor
'03 Fla @ '99 Atl
'01 Diamondbacks 11, '92 Blue Jays 5
'03 Marlins 1, '98 Braves 0
Recently an ESPN Sportsnation poll stated that approximately 83% of respondents do not believe Tim Raines was a Hall of Fame caliber player. This is extremely unfortunately. Tim Raines was not only a Hall of Famer, but if left out he would clearly stand as the most deserving player left out. On statistics alone, he rates higher than Mark McGwire. In making this argument I am going to attempt to avoid bogging down the argument with too many sabermetrics. Runs Created Above Average and WARP3 might view Raines as deserving, but they are not going to convince the casual fan. My goal is to convince the casual baseball fan that Raines deserves the Hall.
Tim Raines' stat line is not convincing at first glance. A .385 On Base Percentage is good but not among the greats. .425 is quite pedestrian for a slugging percentage. Delving into Raines' value requires more work. Start with his stolen bases (808, 5th all time). The four players with more steals are all in the Hall, and Vince Coleman is the only non-Hall of Famer among the top ten. Of those ten, Raines was caught stealing the least, only 146 times. In fact, Raines' stolen base percentage of 84% is the greatest stolen base percentage of all time. Raines reached base almost 4,000 times in his career, good for 38th all time. When he did reach base, which was often, he was absolute terror on the basepaths. He's 46th all time in runs scored. 32nd in walks.
Tim Raines vs. Jim Rice
Jim Rice seems like an inexplicable Hall candidate. Let's compare the two. Raines played in over 400 more games, collecting more runs, hits, doubles, triples, steals, walks, and less strikeouts and double plays. Those are counting statistics so maybe that is unfair. Raines' OBP is 33 points higher. Rice played in eight All-Star games, Raines played in seven. Rice played left field and DH'ed in Fenway Park, while Raines played left field in Stade Olympique.
But Rice's argument is all about peak. In 1978 Rice won the MVP award, hitting .315 with 46 home runs and 139 RBIs. That is impressive. Compare that with Raines in 1987. Raines hit .330, had a .429 OBP (59 points higher than Rice), walked 90 times, hit 18 home runs, scored 123 runs, and stole 50 bases in 55 tries. Rice was a feared hitter? Raines was intentionally walked 26 times, 14 out of the leadoff slot. In fact, Raines was intentionally walked more than 10 times in a season four times. Rice was intentionally walked ten times in his best season. What all this indicates to me is that managers saw Rice as a power threat, but one they could beat. Raines? No way. (In fact, Raines' prolific on base tendencies earned Tim Wallach 123 RBIs and a 4th place MVP finish.)
Tim Raines vs. Lou Brock
Brock is seen as a good Hall of Famer. 3,000 hits, held the record for stolen bases until Rickey Henderson. Draw up the list, and Raines is clearly a superior player. Raines stole 130 less bases, but was caught 161 less times. Raines had a higher batting average, higher slugging percentage, and a MUCH higher on base percentage. Raines had 400 less hits but over 500 more walks. More impressively, Raines actually appeared in more All-Star games.
Win Shares
Skip this part if you don't believe in the stat at all, but you may find this enlightening. Tim Raines has 390 career win shares. Every player with 400+ win shares is in the Hall of Fame. Two players with more win shares than Raines are out. One is Tony Mullane, who racked up wins pitching in the inferior American Association in the 1880s. The other is Bill Dahlen, an unheralded infielder of the turn of the century. There are 70 players with more than 363 win shares, and all but two who are eligible are in. That's rare company, and Raines is smack in the middle of it.
I hope if you were unconvinced, you are now. If not, I'd like to hear from you.
Mike & Mike this morning discussed pitching candidates for the Hall of Fame. I figured I'd throw in my two cents.
Shoe Ins
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Tom Glavine
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine is often labeled as a guy who is close, but in. He's a dead lock, and it is not even close. Glavine as of this writing has 286 wins. Of the 30 pitchers who have won 275 or more games, 22 are in the Hall, three are still active, and two were 19th century pitchers. That leaves Bert Blyleven, Tommy John and Jim Kaat. Let's stack up the numbers.
Glavine: 286-186 (.606), 3.44 ERA, 120 ERA+
Blyleven: 287-250 (.534), 3.31 ERA, 118 ERA+
Kaat: 283-237 (.544), 3.45 ERA, 107 ERA+
John: 288-231 (.555), 3.34 ERA, 111 ERA+
Two things should come out right away. The first is that Glavine's win percentage is over .600. There is simply no precident for leaving out a pitcher with this many wins AND this high a winning percentage. Also note that Blyleven, who pitched effectively as long, posted nearly as good an earned run average in context.
Pedro Martinez has 204 wins right now. Compare his record to pitchers let in with few wins. The Black Ink Test is a tool that measures how often a player led his league in something. It's a good tool both for measuring players with high peaks, and players from different eras. The average Hall of Fame pitcher has a Black Ink score of 40.
Pedro Martinez: 204-88 (.697), 2.75 ERA, 166 ERA+, Black Ink: 55
Jack Chesbro: 198-132 (.600), 2.68 ERA, 110 ERA+, Black Ink: 27
Dizzy Dean: 150-83 (.644), 3.02 ERA, 130 ERA+, Black Ink: 52
Lefty Gomez: 189-102 (.649), 3.34 ERA, 125 ERA+, Black Ink: 46
Addie Joss: 160-97 (.623), 1.89 ERA, 142 ERA+, Black Ink: 19
Sandy Koufax: 165-87 (.655), 2.76 ERA, 131 ERA+, Black Ink: 78
Dazzy Vance: 197-140 (.585), 3.24 ERA, 125 ERA+, Black Ink: 66
Rube Waddell: 193-143 (.574), 2.16 ERA, 134 ERA+, Black Ink: 46
Ed Walsh: 195-126 (.607), 1.82 ERA, 145 ERA+, Black Ink: 67
All of the above players scored high on the Black Ink test except for Jack Chesbro and Addie Joss. Chesbro won 41 games in 1904, and is essentially in the Hall on that statistic alone. Addie Joss's raw numbers are eye popping, but he was never the best pitcher in the league. Pedro Martinez stacks up favorably with all these players, and his winning percentage and ERA+ are better than any pitcher on the list. In fact, Pedro's ERA+ ranks number one all time, and his winning percentage is second behind Al Spalding among HOF pitchers (And Spalding pitched most of his career in the National Association, which MLB does not recognize in official statistics).
On the Bubble
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
John Smoltz
These pitchers are harder to judge, and even I am not certain of their Hall of Fame qualifications. Mussina's going to have a tricky time because he never won 20 games, and we know voters love those big round numbers. Mussina's won 19 games twice, 19 three times, and 17 twice. One problem is that Mussina's best years were 1994-95, when he missed several starts due to the strike. It is not difficult to think Mussina would have won four games between August 12 and the end of the 1994 season, and just one more game in four starts in 1995. He led the league in wins in 1995.
If you look at Mussina's record, again you see a superior win/loss percentage (.643 in this case). Let's make a comparison for Mussina here. Eleven pitchers have won 225 or more games, not made the Hall, and pitched after 1900 (not counting active players). I will not add another table because frankly, most readers have not heard some of these names. As a group, they had winning percentages between .491 and .577. Their adjusted ERAs ranged from 101 to 118. They scored between 7 and 20 on the Black Ink test.
Mussina blasts them out of the water in win percentage and adjusted ERA. His record there is superior to any pitcher not in the Hall of Fame. The Black Ink test is trickier, because Mussina only scores a 14. But if you move on to the Gray Ink test (which measures top ten appearances instead of just leading a category), Mussina stands out. Only Bert Blyleven beats Mussina in that category, and Blyleven really should be in the Hall as well. Mussina does not have that one outstanding season. But he's clearly superior to any fringe candidate.
Curt Schilling is the opposite. Not great counting numbers, but some tremendous seasons. Just for fun, here's Schilling next to another current pitcher
Curt Schilling: 202-134
Kenny Rogers: 201-134
Of course Schilling's ERA is nearly a run lower and he has about a thousand more strikeouts. What makes Schilling odd is that he also never won a Cy Young award, which you would think is a prerequisite for making the Hall on a short career. I think Schilling's a deserving candidate though, as he scores favorably on all the Hall of Fame standards tests. If he finishes his career with 220-225 wins with his current win percentage, he should be a lock.
There's no really good statistical judge for John Smoltz. Dennis Eckersley reshaped the closers' role. Smoltz was just a closer for a few years. Obviously he was a great closer and deserves some credit for that, but how much? A closer is not as valuable as a 20 win pitcher, and probably not as valuable as a 15 win pitcher. What about 12 wins? Add 36 wins to his total, give him credit for the 15 wins in the postseason, and he's up to around 233 wins. I would not vote for Smoltz just let, but if he reaches 200 wins, then you have a guy who also has 154 saves and an amazing 15-4 record in the postseason. It's hard to go against that.
Others
It is difficult to predict the future of pitchers. Among the top 100 active pitchers in wins, only Andy Pettitte has a legitimate shot at the Hall. There are many pitchers in the sub 100 win club who could make a run, noteably Johan Santana. The problem is there is little difference in the peak values of great pitchers and good pitchers. The difference is how long they last. Many pitchers like Fernando Valenzuela had great peaks, but only had a few great years. Some guys look like HOFers at age 30 and are gone by age 33. But even if you can not identify a single Hall of Famer or even a 300 game winner in the current generation, chances are someone will outlast the pack.
I'll take a look at HOF closers in the future.
Bored's recent blog on the 1996 Athletics mentioned the name of Ernie Young, a current mainstay in the minor leagues. His blog got me thinking. I attend Scranton/Wilkes-Barre games regularly, and I see several players who are very good, but lack (or seemingly lack) the ability to play in the Major Leagues. They still provide some value however, and they make minor league games worth watching. Only a handful of the players in AAA are real prospects, after all. I thought I would draw up a list of some of my favorites. The only criteria is that the player should be a AAA veteran, and for the most part a non-prospect.
1. RP Colter Bean, Columbus Clippers.
Free Colter Bean! Bean is a 6'6", side-arming right handed pitcher in the Yankees' organization. Most do not consider Bean a prospect due to his lack of noticeable velocity. He's the kind of pitcher that scouts feel do not adapt to the majors. I regard that as sheer foolishness. Since joining the Clippers in 2003, Bean has compiled a 19-12 record in relief, including a 2.62 ERA and 274 strikeouts in 233 innings. Meanwhile the Yankees sit in the Bronx and wonder why the hell they can not find relievers.
2. OF/1B Jim Rushford, Reading Phillies.
Rushford looked headed to the Northern League before re-signing with the Phillies' organization the last week of March. Unlike Bean, Rushford's failings are pretty apparent. He hits for a high average and has good plate discipline. He does not hit for much power however, only hitting more than 10 home runs once, in 1997. He's a below average right fielder and average first baseman. Most teams do not have a need for that type of player in the majors, but he fits well in the minors.
3. OF Ernie Young, Charlotte Knights
The essential minor league journeyman. Young has hit over 300 home runs between the majors and minors, and won a Gold medal with the 2000 Olympic Baseball team. He could help a major league club in a fifth outfielder's role yet.
4. RP Dan Giese, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons
Giese retired midway through last season for unspecified reasons. I'm glad to see him back. Giese is pure control out of the bullpen. Last season he walked just one batter in 38 innings. This season Giese has come out firing, striking out 17 batters and walking one in 10 1/3 minor league innings. He's a pitcher that could really surprise people, and could grab a spot in the Phillies' bullpen if it struggles this summer.
5. SP Brandon Duckworth, Indianapolis Indians
At one time Duckworth was a prospect. He compiled a 15-3 record for the Red Barons in 23 starts, including 164 strikeouts in 165 innings, with just 40 walks. Then he fell apart in Philly and hasn't been the same pitcher. He's got a name and face that suggest he shouldn't be that good, so it's fun to watch him when he succeeds.
6. 1B Brad Eldred, Indianapolis Indians
Eldred's plate discipline is abysmal. He struck out 157 times last year while drawing just 35 walks. He struck out 148 times in 2004 while drawing 41 walks. If you gave him 600 ABs in the majors, he would absolutely shatter Adam Dunn's strikeout record. The beauty is though that if he gets ahold of one, he can hit it as far as any player in baseball.
7. C Bobby Estalella, whereabouts unknown.
Estalella, due to injuries, will never get his chance in the majors. He was once a young AAA prospect with power and plate discipline, but now he's on the wrong side of 30. It's a shame because his grandfather was an MLB semi-regular who also never got a fair chance.
I'm posting this here because I didn't feel like beating a dead horse in the MLB thread. There is a legitimate argument that Bagwell is not only Hall of Fame worthy, but he is the best first baseman in the history of the National League. Blasphemy? Check out the leaderboards. Minimum 5000 Plate Appearances for rate statistics.
DOUBLES 2B
1 Mark Grace 511
T2 Cap Anson 488
T2 Jeff Bagwell 488
4 Jake Beckley 435
5 Andres Galarraga 428
6 Keith Hernandez 424
7 Jim Bottomley 419
8 Todd Helton 411
9 Steve Garvey 409
10 Charlie Grimm 394
HITS H
1 Jake Beckley 2763
2 Cap Anson 2710
3 Mark Grace 2445
4 Steve Garvey 2443
5 Jake Daubert 2326
6 Jeff Bagwell 2314
7 Charlie Grimm 2297
8 Andres Galarraga 2273
9 Bill Terry 2193
10 Keith Hernandez 2156
HOMERUNS HR
1 Jeff Bagwell 449
2 Willie McCovey 439
3 Andres Galarraga 388
4 Gil Hodges 369
5 Orlando Cepeda 331
6 Johnny Mize 315
7 Eric Karros 282
8 Todd Helton 281
9 Fred McGriff 269
10 Ted Kluszewski 257
INTENTIONAL WALKS IBB
1 Willie McCovey 248
2 Jeff Bagwell 155
3 Todd Helton 146
4 Orlando Cepeda 130
5 Keith Hernandez 127
6 Mark Grace 115
7 Will Clark 112
8 Steve Garvey 108
9 Andres Galarraga 105
10 Fred McGriff 99
ISOLATED POWER ISO
1 Todd Helton .261
2 Johnny Mize .258
3 Willie McCovey .244
4 Jeff Bagwell .244
5 Fred McGriff .227
6 Dolph Camilli .220
7 Gil Hodges .215
8 Andres Galarraga .211
9 Orlando Cepeda .209
10 Will Clark .204
OBA OBA
1 Todd Helton .432
2 Dan Brouthers .418
3 Jeff Bagwell .408
4 Johnny Mize .405
5 Roger Connor .397
6 Cap Anson .397
7 Bill Terry .393
8 Dolph Camilli .390
9 Keith Hernandez .386
10 Elbie Fletcher .384
OPS OPS
1 Todd Helton 1.027
2 Johnny Mize .983
3 Jeff Bagwell .948
4 Dan Brouthers .942
5 Bill Terry .899
6 Willie McCovey .893
7 Dolph Camilli .890
8 Roger Connor .885
9 Fred McGriff .882
10 Will Clark .880
OWP OWP
1 Dan Brouthers .772
2 Johnny Mize .759
3 Roger Connor .717
4 Will Clark .705
5 Jeff Bagwell .704
6 Willie McCovey .702
7 Todd Helton .689
8 Cap Anson .677
9 Bill Terry .674
10 Dolph Camilli .671
RBI RBI
1 Cap Anson 1748
2 Jeff Bagwell 1529
3 Jake Beckley 1455
4 Andres Galarraga 1389
5 Willie McCovey 1345
6 Jim Bottomley 1315
7 Gil Hodges 1267
8 Steve Garvey 1246
9 Johnny Mize 1158
10 Orlando Cepeda 1150
RCAA RCAA
1 Dan Brouthers 789
2 Jeff Bagwell 680
3 Roger Connor 667
4 Cap Anson 659
5 Johnny Mize 638
6 Willie McCovey 536
7 Todd Helton 465
8 Bill Terry 425
9 Stan Musial 399
10 Keith Hernandez 371
RUNS R
1 Cap Anson 1549
2 Jeff Bagwell 1517
3 Jake Beckley 1491
4 Roger Connor 1336
5 Dan Brouthers 1229
6 Mark Grace 1179
7 Andres Galarraga 1161
8 Fred Tenney 1156
9 Bill Terry 1120
T10 Jake Daubert 1117
T10 Keith Hernandez 1117
RUNS CREATED RC
1 Cap Anson 2047
2 Jeff Bagwell 1768
3 Roger Connor 1725
4 Jake Beckley 1685
5 Dan Brouthers 1652
6 Willie McCovey 1403
7 Mark Grace 1392
8 Johnny Mize 1372
9 Andres Galarraga 1338
10 Todd Helton 1306
RUNS CREATED/GAME RC/G
1 Dan Brouthers 11.84
2 Roger Connor 10.04
3 Todd Helton 9.96
4 Johnny Mize 9.51
5 Cap Anson 9.50
6 Jeff Bagwell 8.11
7 Dolph Camilli 7.71
8 Bill Terry 7.65
9 Willie McCovey 7.08
10 Will Clark 7.08
SECONDARY AVERAGE SEC
1 Jeff Bagwell .449
2 Todd Helton .439
3 Willie McCovey .418
4 Dolph Camilli .408
5 Johnny Mize .400
6 Fred McGriff .372
7 Gil Hodges .357
8 Roger Connor .342
9 Will Clark .334
10 Dan Brouthers .332
SLG SLG
1 Todd Helton .595
2 Johnny Mize .577
3 Jeff Bagwell .540
4 Dan Brouthers .524
5 Willie McCovey .515
6 Fred McGriff .512
7 Orlando Cepeda .508
8 Bill Terry .506
9 Jim Bottomley .505
10 Will Clark .505
Whether or not Bagwell is the best, he's in some select company.
I picked up Out Of the Park Baseball a few weeks ago, a sim game that allows you to pick up any year in baseball history. One thing I've wanted to do is replay the Phillies' history from 1901 to the present. I don't know if I'm that nuts, but the idea pitiqued my curiosity enough to check out the Phils at the turn of the century. Reviewing that team revealed a few interesting things not just about the team, but about baseball in general at that time.
A few terms I am using in the stat line. WARP stands for wins above replacement player, a Baseball Prospectus stat. PRAA is pitching runs above average, created I believe by statistician Pete Palmer. When reviewing the stats, keep in mind the context. Batters actually hit for a higher average in 1901, .267 compared to .262 last year. The league slugging average however was a meager .348. Teams scored MORE runs in 1901, chiefly because teams made three times as many errors as they do today. That is why Earned Run Averages are much lower.
Catching
C Ed McFarlane (.285/.326/.356, 4.9 WARP, 10 win shares)
The Phils carried three catchers, Ed McFarlane, Klondike Douglass, and Fred Jacklitsch. All three were decent catchers at some point in their careers, although McFarlane was the best of the lot. These days, the rare team that carries three catchers does so in the event that they find themselves stuck without a catcher in a game. The Phils only changed catchers mid-game five times all season. Douglass was primarily a bat off the bench, and possibly a platoon partner for McFarlane. Catching was an extremely demanding position at that time, and catchers needed almost as much rest as pitchers.
Infield
1B Hughie Jennings (.262/.342/.354, 2.4 WARP, 8 win shares)
2B Bill Hallman (.184/.236/.236, 2.8 WARP, 5 win shares)
SS Monte Cross (.197/.281/.236, 3.3 WARP, 7 win shares)
3B Harry Wolverton (.309/.356/.369, 6.0 WARP, 15 win shares)
Hughie Jennings is the big name, a Hall of Fame player coming to the end of his career. Jennings was a great shortstop for five years with the Baltimore Orioles in the 1890s, and that combined with his career as a manager of the Detroit Tigers put him in the Hall. Jennings was an average hitter at this point, but he adequately replaced Jimmy Slagle, who performed poorly over the first two months. Wolverton was the best hitting infielder of the bunch, back when third base was more of a defensive position. Cross and Hallman were absolutely pathetic at the stick. Cross had some plate discipline but no pop. Hallman could bunt for outs.
Outfield
LF Ed Delahanty (.354/.427/.528, 11.1 WARP, 33 win shares)
CF Roy Thomas (.309/.437/.334, 8.0 WARP, 24 win shares)
RF Elmer Flick (.333/.399/.500, 11.0 WARP, 30 win shares)
Two Hall of Famers, and Delahanty's one of the all time greats. Philadelphia from 1891 all the way through the mid-teens sported an absolutely spectacular outfield. They started with Delahanty/Billy Hamilton/Sam Thompson. When Hamilton left they brought in Roy Thomas, when Thompson left they got Flick and then John Titus (and later Gavy Cravath), and when Delahanty left they found Sherry Magee. Delahanty was a great slugger. Flick was a fantastic contact hitter with speed. And Roy Thomas was one of the most unique players in baseball history.
Roy Thomas has the biggest runs to RBI ratio in the history of the game. He did not hit for a great average (.290 career), had absolutely NO power (7 career home runs), and he wasn't a great basestealer (244 career steals was NOT a notable total at that time). What Thomas did was walk, and he walked a TON. Thomas led the National League in walks for seven out of eight seasons. Six times Thomas reached base the most times in the league, and twice he led the league in OBP. Purely on the strength of his OBP, he was one of the greatest leadoff hitters of all time.
Bench
IF Shad Barry (.246/.294/.298, 1.7 WARP, 4 win shares)
OF Jimmy Slagle (.202/.277/.273, 1.5 WARP, 3 win shares)
C Klondike Douglass (.324/.371/.370, 2.8 WARP, 7 win shares)
C Fred Jacklitsch (.250/.328/.333, 1.8 WARP, 4 win shares)
2B Joe Dolan (.081/.128/.081, -0.3 WARP, 0 win shares)
2B Bert Conn (.192/.250/.231, 0.1 WARP, 0 win shares)
OF George Browne (.222/.263/.278, 0 WARP, 0 win shares)
It is important to note that teams did not construct rosters the way they do today. There were no organized minor leagues at the time, so teams simply carried promising prospects on their big league rosters. Bench players were those not good enough to play every day. Of this bunch, Dolan was cut shortly into the season, and Jimmy Slagle was released in late June. Slagle went on to become part of the Cubs' dynasty, although the Phils had a great left fielder of their own of that time in Sherry Magee. Shad Barry came in and played all over the field to spell the regulars. As I will note later, even pitchers were rarely pinch hit for. A pitcher would bat for himself even with his team down a run in the 8th inning. This all meant very few in-game substitutions.
Rotation
Red Donahue (20-13, 2.59 ERA, 27 PRAA, 24 win shares)
Al Orth (20-12, 2.27 ERA, 31 PRAA, 29 win shares)
Bill Duggleby (20-12, 2.88 ERA, 15 PRAA, 22 win shares)
Doc White (14-13, 3.19 ERA, -7 PRAA, 16 win shares)
Happy Townsend (9-6, 3.45 ERA, -3 PRAA, 8 win shares)
Jack Dunn (0-1, 21.21 ERA, -10 PRAA, 0 win shares)
Those top three I doubt you have heard of. Pitchers who straddled the line between the 19th and 20th centuries tend to be overlooked by most baseball fans. Donahue, famous for his curve, compiled a 164-175 career line, his below .500 career due mostly to an awful 17-60 campaign with the St. Louis Browns from 1895-97. Al Orth was an entirely average pitcher who had two great seasons in 1899 and 1901. Orth was the premier change-up pitcher of his time. Bill Duggleby as well experienced his one great year in 1901. Doc White was merely a 22 year old rookie in 1901, but went on to win 189 games and a World Series with the Chicago White Sox in 1906. Happy Townsend was also a rookie that season. After the season, Townsend jumped to the Washington Senators of the upstart American League. As far as dumb moves go, that might take the cake. Townsend went 23-69 over four seasons with the Senators.
The trouble with evaluating pitchers of this era is that I suspect a great deal of pitching greatness was determined by a team's defense. In 1901, Tom Hughes of the Chicago Orphans (now Cubs) led the league with 6.57 strikeouts per nine innings. With the league as a whole striking out less than four batters a game, that was a lot of balls in play. Remember pitchers pitched a ton of innings and pitched quickly, and they did not have to bear down on pitchers like today.
Jack Dunn pitched only two starts before moving on to the Baltimore Orioles of the American League. Finished as a quality pitcher, Dunn became a utility player and prolonged his career for a few seasons. After the Orioles moved to New York and became the Highlanders, the Orioles were revived as a minor league franchise in the International League. Dunn became the owner/operator of the club, and was the man who scouted Babe Ruth into organized baseball.
Bullpen
None. The Phils made 17 pitching changes the entire season, and when they needed a new pitcher they simply called on one of their other starters. The Phillies' starters completed 125 of their 140 starts, and only once did they use three pitchers in a game. Bill Duggleby appeared in six games in relief, Doc White four.
Pitchers' Batting
Al Orth (.281/.303/.352)
Bill Duggleby (.165/.193/.200)
Red Donahue (.097/.128/.115)
Doc White (.276/.297/.357)
Happy Townsend (.109/.123/.156)
Jack Dunn (1 for 1, 1 BB)
With hitting numbers like these, no wonder why these guys batted on their own. Al Orth and Doc White were just as capable as the pinch hitters.
Manager
Bill Shettsline. Shettsline had an innocuous career as manager, guiding the Phils from 1898-1902, finishing as high as second. He never managed elsewhere or played MLB himself.
Outcome and Aftermath
The Phils finished 83-57, good for second place in the league, 7.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Phils would use a great deal of their players in the ongoing war between the American and National Leagues. Monte Cross, Ed Delahanty, Red Donahue, Al Orth, Elmer Flick, Harry Wolverton and others jumped to the American League. The Phils fell to 7th place. Curiously, the American League did not raid the Pirates' roster. The Bucs won 103 games and finished 27.5 games ahead. The lack of a pennant race further boosted the American League, and the National League sued for peace, creating the Major Leagues as we know them.
Listening to sports talk radio, the only baseball discussion occurring right now regards the Hall of Fame. Invariably, someone will mention that Joe Dimaggio was not elected on the first ballot This is true, Dimaggio received only 44% of the vote. However, two key facts are missed.
1. That ballot was the 1953 ballot. Dimaggio retired following the 1951 season. The 1953 ballot, submitted in December '52, was the FIRST election since Dimaggio retired. I've searched some sources and I can not find whether the five year rule was in place. Bobby Doerr garnered a handful of votes and he retired the same year. It is worth noting however that Dimaggio under today's system would not gain eligibility to the Hall until 1957, two years after he was elected.
2. The Hall of Fame at that time contained a huge backlog of eligible players. It is easy for a worthy player to gain induction today. This year in a good crop, there are 27 players total, three whose numbers merit clear induction, and another 8-10 who could claim HoF worthiness on a good day. It is relatively easy for voters, allowed up to ten choices, to choose the best players and induct them. In 1953, 83 players received at least one vote. Do you know how difficult it is to reach a consensus with the vote spread so widely? What's more, over 40 of those not elected would eventually become Hall of Famers. Dimaggio didn't get snubbed because he was somehow undeserving. Two players who retired in 1951 made the Hall. Dimaggio got 44%, Bobby Doerr got 1%. The process was to blame.
My friends regard me as a baseball nut, and for the most part that is true. Name any year, and I can tell you who played in that World Series off the top of my head. Further along however, I fall flat. Ask me who won the National League West in 1979, and I might not remember. Major League Baseball expanded its playoff format in 1969, adding a League Championship series. Most of us remember the great World Series, as they are prevailent, produced on dvd. The LCS however sometimes fades into oblivion. Unless your local team was involved in a memorable series, you may not ever hear about it. Certainly, ESPN Classic's insistance on never showing complete baseball games means some absolute classics are forgotten. Hopefully, this will begin a series of articles about those series. I intend to relive those series, as well as the losing teams involved.
1980 National League Championship Series
Best of Five
1980 Houston Astros
The Houston Astros (then known as the Colt 45s) began as an expansion team in the 1962 season. The 'Stros amased a fine collection of talent over the years such as Joe Morgan, Jimmy Wynn, Larry Dierker and Don Wilson, but could not quite make it to the top of the National League West. Sharing a division with the Big Red Machine will do that. The Astros of course played their home games in the Houston Astrodome. Fans know about the dome and artificial turf, but relatively few fans realize how tough a hitters' park the Dome was. Astros' hitters were perenially underrated, and some pitchers were overrated. The Astros finally broke through in 1980, as we will see.
The Lineup
C: Alan Ashby (.256/.319/.347, 93 OPS+)
1B: Art Howe (.283/.350/.445, 129 OPS+)
2B: Joe Morgan (.243/.367/.373, 115 OPS+)
SS: Craig Reynolds (.226/.262/.304, 64 OPS+)
3B: Enos Cabell (.276/.305/.351, 90 OPS+)
LF: Jose Cruz Sr. (.302/.360/.426, 128 OPS+)
CF: Cesar Cedeno (.309/.389/.465, 147 OPS+)
RF: Terry Puhl (.282/.357/.419, 124 OPS+)
A few interesting players here. Any of the three outfielders could play center, and Terry Puhl in fact did play 30 games in center that season. Jose Cruz is perhaps one of the most underrated players in baseball history. Cruz hit 106 home runs on the road, but only 59 at home. Playing in the Astrodome most of his career cost him perhaps 50 home runs over the years. Cruz certainly deserved more than two All-Star nods. He is not quite a Hall of Fame caliber player, but he's better than Jim Rice, for example.
Cesar Cedeno could be a Hall of Famer. He was a better player than many center fielders currently in the Hall, and might well have been had he not decended rapidly after age 30. Cedeno still played over 2,000 games thanks to an early start, and finished his career with 550 stolen bases.
Joe Morgan left the Cincinnati Reds after the 1979 season, returning to the team that originally drafted him. Morgan remained one of the most disciplined hitters in the game, drawing 93 walks and stealing 24 bases in 1980. Despite a .243 batting average he was one of the more productive second basemen in the league, even at the age of 36.
Enos Cabell on the other hand rated as the player most often criticized by young baseball author Bill James. Cabell hit .276 on the season, at a glimpse an acceptable average. But then you dig in the stat sheet and see a meager 26 walks, almost no power, and he was caught stealing 13 times against 21 successes.
Craig Reynolds' hitting stats are appaling, but it was common for teams in that era to play unproductive hitters at short, preferring defense. Frank Taveras (Mets, 80 OPS+), Larry Bowa (Phillies, 70 OPS+), Tim Foli (Pirates, 73 OPS+), Luis Gomez (Braves, 26 OPS+), Johnnie LeMaster (Giants, 59 OPS+), and Ozzie Smith (Padres, 71 OPS+) comprised some of the league's starting shortstops. When you remember the Padres' trade of Ozzie to the Cardinals for Garry Templeton, consider that Templeton was the only starting shortstop in the league to hit above the league average in 1980.
Ashby of course starred as an announcer for the Astros for several years, and Art Howe went on to become a successful manager in the majors.
The Rotation
Joe Niekro (20-12, 3.55 ERA, 92 ERA+)
Nolan Ryan (11-10, 3.35 ERA, 98 ERA+)
Ken Forsch (12-13, 3.20 ERA, 103 ERA+)
Vern Ruhle (12-4, 2.37 ERA, 138 ERA+)
J.R. Richard (10-4, 1.90 ERA, 173 ERA+)
Joaquin Andujar (3-8, 3.91 ERA, 84 ERA+)
Joe Niekro was in the midst of a late career surge, posting his second consecutive 20 win season. Given his stellar record and the fact that he was a knuckleballer, I think Niekro's mediocre ERA is the result of staying in games longer than most pitchers when his team had a big lead. That's just a guess. Niekro's son Lance currently plays for the San Francisco Giants.
Nolan Ryan remains the game's most overrated pitcher. For all the flack Bert Blyleven receives about not being a winning pitcher, the same tag could be applied to Nolan Ryan, who had a worse win percentage and lower ERA+. Ryan in 1980 had 14 no decisions, of which his team won 11. He did pitch a large number of innings, as did Niekro.
Vern Ruhle's season was entirely a fluke. He never again won more than nine games in a season, and finished his career with a below average ERA. He did however become a successful pitching coach, first with the Phillies and then with the Astros.
J.R. Richard is one of baseball's most tragic cases. Beginning in 1976, Richard ranked among baseball's best pitchers. Despite surrendering over 100 walks a season, he won 72 games from 1976-79. He found his control in 1979 and posted yet another career year. Richard's first half performance in 1980 netted him his first All-Star appearance, a starting assignment to boot. Unfortunately, Richard suffered a series of bizzare ailments that year. Many fans and reporters thought Richard was a lazy player, and that he was loafing. On July 30, Richard suffered a major stroke, requiring emergency surgery. Richard never pitched in the majors again.
Some other intriguing players on the Astros that season included current Padres' manager Bruce Bochy and long time closer Dave Smith, making his debut season.
The Astros ended the regular season in a tie with the Los Angeles Dodgers, necessitating the first regular season playoff in the National League since 1962. (Oddly, of the seven regular season playoffs in N.L. history, the Dodgers have been in five of them). The Astros had held a three game lead over the Dodgers with three to go. However, those three games happened to be against the Dodgers, in Dodger Stadium. The Astros lost all three games to force the playoff. However, the Astros won the playoff easily, 7-1 behind the pitching of staff ace Joe Niekro.
The NLCS
The first two games took place at Veterans Stadium. The Phillies won game one 3-1, thanks to Greg Luzinski's two run home run in the sixth. Game Two saw the Astros and Phillies go into extra innings tied 3-3. The Astros scored four in the tenth, including Dave Bergman's two run triple. The Phillies had a chance to score a run in the ninth, but Lee Elia held Bake McBride at third base.
Games three through five would be played at the Houston Astrodome. Game Three saw the Astros and Phillies trade zeros through ten innings. Joe Niekro pitched ten scoreless innings, striking out two and walking one. Denny Walling's sacrifice fly scored Rafael Landestoy, winning the game for the 'Stros. Game Four saw the Astros take a 2-0 lead into the eighth inning, but the Phils scored three runs. The Astros tied the game in the ninth, leading the game into extra innings for the third straight time. In the top of the tenth, Pete Rose scored on Greg Luzinski's RBI double, and the Phillies went on to win. Rose famously scored on a close play at the plate, knocking down catcher Bruce Bochy. Rose was widely praised for his aggressiveness. What's forgotten is that Manny Trillo followed up with a double that would've scored Rose anyway. But there were two outs, and no tomorrow.
Game five saw the Astros again take a 5-2 lead into the eighth inning. Phillies down three against Nolan Ryan. In the eighth, Rafael Landestoy replaced Joe Morgan at second base, a defensive manuever the Astros made all series. Larry Bowa led off the inning with a base hit to center field. Bob Boone followed with a hard grounder off Ryan's glove, runners at first and second. Greg Gross reached on a bunt down the third base line, loading the bases. Pete Rose followed with a walk, forcing in a run. At this point, Astros' manager Bill Verdon replaced Ryan with Joe Sambito.
If the Astros made a mistake in the series, this is it. Bowa's hit was the hardest hit ball of the inning. Boone and Gross's hits were both infield shots. Rose walked on a full count. The pitch before ball four, which Bowa fouled out, was clocked at 99 mph. I honestly think Ryan came out too soon. Sambito came in to pitch to left handed Bake McBride, who was pulled for Keith Moreland, a righty. There goes the platoon split. Moreland grounded to second, forcing out Rose but scoring a run. 5-4 Astros, first and third for the Phillies, one out.
Ken Forsch came in to replace Sambito. Mike Schmidt struck out in a key spot, leaving two outs. Del Unser bailed out Schmidt and the team, hitting a single to right that scored the tying run. With runners on first and second, Manny Trillo tripled to left, scoring two runs and giving the Phillies a 7-5 lead.
Bottom of the eighth, the Phils attempted to lock down the game by bringing in Tug McGraw. McGraw however, running on fumes, could not get the job done. Two consecutive RBI singles by Rafael Landestoy and Jose Cruz tied the game yet again.
Top of the tenth, Del Unser doubled and Garry Maddox hit a two out double to plate Unser, giving the Phils the lead. Maddox's double was a simple base hit, but Puhl had to dive for it knowing that if it fell in, the Phils would take the lead. The Astros went in order in the bottom of the tenth to give the Phillies the pennant. Noteable about that last half of the inning was Enos Cabell swinging at ball four and flying out to center field for his trouble.
In that five game series, four game went into extra innings. If you watch the Phillies' broadcast, you note Tim McCarver laughing hysterically as the Phillies win the pennant on Maddox's catch. It was an extremely hard fought series, and the Phillies really felt like they simply survived that game, not just won it. In my mind, it rates as the greatest game in Phillies' history, due to its combination of excitement and importance. The Phils would go on to defeat the Kansas City Royals in six games for their first and only World Series championship.
The Astros again reached the postseason the following season. After taking the first two games from the Dodgers, they lost the next three and the series. They lost to the New York Mets in the 1986 NLCS, puncuated by a 16 inning classic game six. Division series appearances in 1997, '98, '99 and 2001 all resulted in losses, giving the Astros seven consecutive playoff series losses. They finally broke that streak in 2004, and won their first National League pennant in 2005.
Last night I drove down to Reading for the Phillies/BaySox game, and I had an opportunity to watch Gio Gonzalez pitch. Sometimes the statistics don't tell you everything about the player. Other times they're dead on. Gonzalez is one of those pitchers who appear exactly as the stats would have you believe. Gonzalez has absolutely fantastic stuff. His control wavers however, as he's walked about 4.5 batters per nine innings. Even though he walked just one batter in his start, he started the game by working all three batters in the first inning to full counts. The control problems are probably the root cause of his home run rate as well. He'll work a batter to a 2-0 or 3-0 count, has to groove a fastball, and with Reading being a good hitters' park, the results are devistating.
Gonzalez is just 20 though, and there are few pitchers his age that are better. He's got plenty of time to progress, and if his control comes around he's going to be a good one.
Jeremy Slayden vs. Josh Kroeger
The Phillies' farm system is so devoid of hitting that any hitter with a pulse garners attention. Jeremy Slayden is such a case. Slayden was drafted out of college last season and is currently enjoying a fine season at Low A Lakewood, hitting .301/.370/.511. (This is the standard Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Pct. line.) Meanwhile, Josh Kroeger is having an awful season at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, hitting just .223/.262/.348. Kroeger is entirely off the radar at this point. Both are corner outfielders. Slayden has better raw stats, but it is MUCH easier to hit Low A pitching than to hit AAA pitching.
The catch is that both players are almost the same age. Slayden was born in July of 1982, and Kroeger in August of the same year. Slayden is actually older despite playing in a league three levels lower. We have a little tool handy called MLEs (Major League Equivalencies). MLEs take a player's current statistics and adjust them to a Major League context. Most minor leaguers look awful but that's ok. If they were good enough to be in the majors they would be in the majors (for the most part). This allows us to directly compare Kroeger and Slayden. They're the same age and they play the same position. Who's better?
MLES
Slayden: .206/.249/.350
Kroeger: .199/.232/.310
Slayden comes out ahead, even with the difference in levels. The point is however that we need to keep things in perspective. Slayden's having a nice year but he's 23 and a LONG way from the majors.
As some of you might know, I have a side engagement scoring baseball games for a company called Baseball Info Solutions. I score occasional games in Scranton, mark hit locations and trajectories, and send them in via computer afterwards. I get to watch the game from a good vantage point for free and I get some money on the side. This is my third year. The first two years Scranton was the AAA affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies. This year however Scranton is now the affiliate of the New York Yankees. The transition of teams comes with higher attendance, as there is simply more interest in this region for the Yankees.
* I joke that Yankee fans are obnoxious. Some are, some are not. Honestly, you get unbearable dopes in nearly every large baseball crowd. This game, four guys sat two rows behind me, consumed large amounts of alcohol and proceeded to make a show of themselves heckling the players. ALL game. It really gets on your nerves after a while. There's no respite.
* The weather is absolutely brutal. Game time temperature was 35 degrees, easily the coldest professional game I have ever attended. You can stand that kind of weather if you dress for it, which I did. After three hours though, the cold digs into you. It snowed about three times during the game, never sticking to the ground but creating a nuisance. The wind picked up at times, and in the configuration of the stadium it swirls.
* Even though I watch a lot of games, my scouting eye is not discerning enough to reveal much more than the statistics. I can tell you that Garrett Olson at one point retired seven straight batters on fly balls. Olson is just 23 and has struck out over a batter an inning in the minors while walking 70 and giving up just 13 home runs in 220 career innings. In my view, he is one of the unheralded pitching prospects in baseball.
* Something was missing overall. My enthusiasm just wasn't there for this game, and I wasn't sure if it was the loudmouths, the team or the weather. There are few legit prospects on the Yankees' farm club behind the rotation, and the Norfolk Tide had even less. I want to do less AAA games this year and maybe hit some other local teams (Harrisburg, Reading, Sussex County, etc.).
A discussion a couple days ago prompted the statement that we can not compare Bonds' MVP awards to Ruth, because modern MVP voting did not exist until 1931. This is true. What if modern voting did exist however? I decided to come up with an MVP for each season from 1915-35, the years Ruth was active. My intention is not to demonstrate how many MVPs Ruth should have won, or deserved. Rather it is to predict voting patterns.
With that in mind, a couple notes. One, voters would likely look for a player on a contending team. In an eight-team league, first division (top four) would get the job done. Second, remember that certain statistics such as On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage did not exist. RBIs did not become an official stat until 1920. THE most important statistic of the time was batting average.
1915: Ty Cobb
Cobb won the batting crown by a 37 point margin and stole 96 bases, 45 more than the nearest competitor. His performance kept the Tigers in contention, falling just 2.5 back of the pennant winning Red Sox.
1916: Joe Jackson
Tris Speaker was the dominant offensive player of the season, but would voters go for a player on a sixth place team? Odds are the voting would come down to Cobb and "Shoeless Joe" Jackson. The White Sox finished just two back as Jackson hit .341, a 33 point increase over his previous season. Voters love a step-up performance, so my gut tells me Jackson would take this award.
1917: Eddie Cicotte
The White Sox won the American League by a sizable margin. Cicotte won 28 games and lost 12. His 28 wins were 10 over his previous career high. In addition, Cicotte led the league in earned run average.
1918: Walter Johnson
Here is a tough one. Ruth went 13-7, led the league in slugging and OPS. The problem is that neither hitting statistic existed at that time. Ty Cobb was again the dominant offensive force, but would voters again take a player on a seventh place team? Walter Johnson takes the award for winning the pitching triple crown on a team that finished just four games out.
1919: Ty Cobb
The Tigers went 80-60, and yet another Cobb batting title would prompt the voters. Ruth led the league in OBP, slugging and OPS. The problem is that the Red Sox finished fifth. When the trade occured the following winter, writers were not jumping all over themselves to declare the Sox traded the best player in the league. At the time, observers considered hitting for home runs a foolish endeavour that prized the individual over the team.
1920: Babe Ruth
Three team race between the Indians, White Sox and Yankees. There are three possibilities here. One is Ruth and his 54 home runs. A second is Tris Speaker and his .388 batting average for the pennant winners. A third is Eddie Collins with his .372 batting average and being one of the "clean" Sox. I think 54 home runs is too much to ignore at this point.
1921: Babe Ruth
59 home runs along with a .378 batting average, third in the league.
1922: George Sisler
The St. Louis Browns finished a mere game behind the Yankees. While Ruth fell back to 35 home runs, Sisler hit .420. Voters at the time would have loved batting average. They have never voted for a guy having a down season, no matter how good that down season still is.
1923: Babe Ruth
No contest. The Yankees finished 16 games up, Ruth hit .393.
1924: Walter Johnson
Johnson won the actual MVP award in this season with another pitching triple crown. The Senators won their first pennant this season as well.
1925: Roger Peckinpaugh
With Ruth on the mend the race becomes wide open. Stan Coveleski finished 20-5, and led the league in ERA as the Senators won their second consecutive pennant. Peckinpaugh won the damned thing though.
1926: Babe Ruth
Bounceback season as Ruth hits .372 and leads the league in RBIs by a healthy margin.
1927: Lou Gehrig
The RBI crown gives Gehrig the award here as the voters likely would like to switch up the award here and there.
1928: Lou Gehrig
Again Gehrig would have the batting edge here. Ruth and Gehrig tied for RBIs, but I think Gehrig would have more team credibility that the voters might go for.
1929: Al Simmons
Simmons barely missed a batting crown and led the league in RBIs for the league champion.
1930: Al Simmons
A batting crown, second in RBIs. A note that I would not underestimate the voters giving Mickey Cochrane one of these awards.
1931: Lefty Grove
1932: Jimmie Foxx
1933: Jimmie Foxx
1934: Mickey Cochrane
1935: Gabby Hartnett (NL)
Four for Ruth, best I can manage. You can argue for him getting six or seven. That said, let's see what Win Shares has to say about the best players in each season.
1915: Ty Cobb
1916: Tris Speaker
1917: Ty Cobb
1918: Babe Ruth
1919: Babe Ruth
1920: Babe Ruth
1921: Babe Ruth
1922: Red Faber
1923: Babe Ruth
1924: Babe Ruth
1925: Al Simmons
1926: Babe Ruth
1927: Babe Ruth
1928: Babe Ruth
1929: Al Simmons/Jimmie Foxx
1930: Lou Gehrig
1931: Lefty Grove
1932: Jimmie Foxx
1933: Jimmie Foxx
1934: Lou Gehrig
1935: Arky Vaughan (NL)
Over the last few seasons the Phillies have developed into a perennial contender. From two consecutive 90+ loss seasons in 1996-97, the Phillies improved to an average win total of 85 wins the last five seasons. Despite the growth however, fans grew restless over the lack of a playoff berth. So the Phillies' upper brass did the only reasonable thing. Fire the general manager. Surely a proven baseball man like Pat Gillick would lead the Phillies to a division title, right? Well, sixty-eight games into the season, the Phillies' record stands at 33-35. The Phils have developed mediocracy before, but the Mets' hot streak has landed the Phils 9.5 games out, and seemingly on the brink. So what's gone wrong so far?
HITTING: The Phillies currently rank sixth in the National League in runs scored. This is not normally a poor result, but Citizens Bank Park inflates run scoring. The exact degree of inflation I am unsure of, but it is reasonable to call the offense about average. Looking at run production from each position in the lineup, here's where the Phillies rank by OPS (the sum of On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage).
C: .625 (14th)
1B: .912 (5th)
2B: .871 (1st)
SS: .718 (10th)
3B: .666 (15th)
LF: .909 (6th)
CF: .850 (2nd)
RF: .931 (2nd)
DH: Have not played a DH game
PH: .521 (16th)
Production at second base (Chase Utley), center field (Aaron Rowand and Shane Victorino) and right field (Bobby Abreu) has been excellent. Production from left field (Pat Burrell) and first base (Ryan Howard is good to very good). Production from shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) is fair.
Catcher and third base are the big problems. At catcher we have seen 39 games from Sal Fasano, 25 games from Mike Lieberthal, 14 from Carlos Ruiz, and 4 from Chris Coste. Fasano's production has been surprisingly passable, with a .321 On Base Percentage and .433 slugging percentage. I was honestly expecting to rip Fasano's offense, but it's good. Lieberthal hit poorly, but I expect his averages would improve given time. Carlos Ruiz's 5 for 35 performance and Coste's 2 for 13 drag down the percentages here.
David Bell has gotten the bulk of the playing time at third, and has produced a decent OBP (.335) but only a .383 slugging percentage. That's a bad sign from a righty at Citizens Bank Park. The average at third is dragged by Abraham Nunez hitting .139 in 36 at bats.
That brings us to the pinch hitting. The Phillies rank dead last in the National League in OPS, and given that pinch hitters are often used in key spots in the game, that's an awful mark. David Dellucci is 10 for 37 off the bench, with 4 doubles, 2 triples and a homer. That's quite a few extra base hits, good for a .568 slugging percentage. The rest of the bench has been awful. Abraham Nunez is 3 for 29 off the bench, with one walk. That's 26 outs in 30 plate appearances. Alex S. Gonzalez was 2 for 13 before his retirement. Shane Victorino went 5 for 20, all singles. Nine more batters have combined for a 1 for 20 performance as pinch hitters, the lone mark being a solo home run from Ryan Howard.
The big problem for the Phillies' offense is situational hitting. The Phillies are 15th in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position, 15th in the league. There's little that can be done for that except wait. The Phils do need to add punch to their bench. David Dellucci is a platoon hitter and opposing teams are frequently able to outmanuever Charlie Manuel and bring in their situational lefties.
PITCHING: In short, the rotation has been awful and the bullpen is sensational. The Phillies' starters have compiled a 5.53 ERA, by far the worst in the league. The bullpen on the other hand has produced a 3.18 mark, best in the league. If only they ever got a lead to work with. Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd were awful in their stints, and have landed in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Both walked far too many batters. Ryan Madson, thought to be a rotation prospect, crashed in his rotation try yet remains there due to a lack of other starters. Jon Lieber's awful numbers are the product of a bad April. He's since recovered, but his trip to the DL has forced the Phils to use subpar starters in his absence. Cole Hamels was supposed to provide some help, but he's walked 14 batters in 25 innings and failed to make it past the third inning in his last start. Brett Myers is the staff ace but even he got shelled his last two starts.
The bullpen meanwhile has been outstanding thanks to strong performances by Tom Gordon, Rheal Cormier and Geoff Geary. The other relievers have contributed, and only Brian Sanches and Julio Santana have ERAs below the league average. Both of those pitchers have pitched few innings. Call me crazy, but it is time Ryan Franklin got a rotation spot. The idea of having Franklin was to have some rotation depth. Well guess what. The rotation sucks. Franklin might be a bad pitcher, but there's no way he can make this abomination any worse. Get him in there and try to hold out until Randy Wolf comes back. I know managers hate to mess with the bullpen, but they aren't handing out booby prizes for holding onto four run deficits.
FIELDING: The Fielding Bible rated the Phillies as having the majors' best defense. Given the strong uniform performance of the Phils' bullpen despite average peripherals, I would buy that. The Phils surprisingly are middle of the pack in stolen base percentage. They have only allowed 11 steals all season.
The problem with the Phillies is their awful rotation. Scott Mathieson performed well in a spot start, but I doubt he is a long term solution this season. If the Phillies want to make a realistic run, they need to add a starting pitcher. Whether the cost is worth making a run this season or holding off for a future season with their farm club is up for debate. There is almost no hitting in the system, meaning a trade would likely be pitcher for pitcher. It is easy to trade away the very solution to your problem in that manner. Patience is difficult, but it is probably best for the Phillies to try Ryan Franklin, Randy Wolf, Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez to shore up the rotation. If it fails, look for serious pitching help in the offseason.
Three Game series, pitting the 1939 New York Yankees against the 1995 Cleveland Indians.
'95 Indians (Charles Nagy) @ '39 Yankees (Monte Pearson)
'39 Yankees (Atley Donald) @ '95 Indians (Ken Hill)
'95 Indians (Dennis Martinez) @ '39 Yankees (Red Ruffing) (if necessary)
Game 1
'95 Indians 12, '39 Yankees 4
The Indians steamrolled Yankee pitching in the first game of the series. Albert Belle hit two home runs and Omar Vizquel and Sandy Alomar added home runs of their own. Belle has now hit seven home runs in the tournament. Charles Nagy pitched seven innings to improve his record to 3-0, while Monte Pearson drops to 0-1.
'95 Indians 10, '39 Yankees 4
The Indians again crushed the Yankees to wrap up a tournament victory. Ken Hill (2-0) pitched two innings for the victory while Atley Donald (2-1) lasted just two innings in the loss. Albert Belle hit his eighth home run.
Tournament MVP: Joe Dimaggio, 1939 Yankees
Dimaggio hit .386 in 44 at bats with a tournament leading 16 RBIs.
Tournament Cy Young: Charles Nagy, '95 Indians
3-0. 1.29 ERA.
Philadelphia Sports
I wanted to clarify my supposed Eagles hate. I don't hate the Philadelphia Eagles. If I watch a football game I cheer for them, and if they are in the Super Bowl, I will watch. (More on that later.) The problem comes from the Philadelphia fan base. In 2005, I attended a game between the Phillies and the Florida Marlins, September 9, 2005. The Phillies were fresh off a five game losing streak, and fell behind 4-1 by the third inning. Among the fans, an E-A-G-L-E-S chant struck up.
The general problem is that the fans do not stick behind their teams and support them. At the slightest provocation, they turn on the team and voice their displeasure when things go wrong. The tone of the crowd was, "we give up, we support another team now with a better chance." Of course the Phillies won the game 12-5 and made an admirable run towards the wild card (and fell short.) I think it hurts the local teams that the fans are not more generally supportive. It's tiresome to listen to "woe is me" fans. The Phillies have been good the last several years, as have the Eagles.
So they did not reach the championship. Them and 29-31 other teams. I think fans need to give up championships/playoff wins as a barometer of success. Winning any playoff series is 50/50, and winning a championship at best is an 8:1 shot in the postseason. Long term win/loss percentage is the best measure of team success in sports.
Steroids
Today Congress spent another round of hearings due to the Mitchell Report. I think the big problem specifically is that the report contained information based on the early part of the decade, before Congress held their first hearings. They could not use the report to evaluate baseball's progress. Bigger than that however, I am generally tired of steroids entering the discussion. I am honestly not interested; I would rather hear and talk about transactions and what roster moves teams are making towards next season.
I am a big fan of baseball, as everyone knows. I love the competition. I do not wish to look at the game and wonder who is and is not on steroids. No one does really. I probably support some real bozos. I think Mark McGwire should go into the Hall of Fame. I would rather pretend they do not exist than let it invade every portion of baseball evaluation. That is likely not the wisest position to take. Think of it as a coping mechanism.
