1976 vs. 2008
The Phillies have not seen many good teams over their history. Their greatest team is probably the 1976 squad. That team won 101 games, one of only two Phillies teams to do so. Unfortunately that Phillies team ran into a buzzsaw called the Big Red Machine, and thus failed to win the National League pennant. A Phillies player recently surmised that the Phils could win 100 games next season. If that happens, the 2008 Phillies could rank as the greatest in franchise history. So how do they stack up against the 1976 team? I thought it might be fun to take a look.
Catcher: Bob Boone vs. Carlos Ruiz
Bob Boone in the late '70s was a good defensive catcher who added some offensive contributions as well. Boone in 1976 saw his first good season at the plate, and he would follow up with three more. Carlos Ruiz is merely adequate at this point in his career. Boone made the All-Star team in '76
Advantage: 1976
First Base: Dick Allen vs. Ryan Howard
Allen was perhaps one of the most controversial baseball players of all time. An elite talent who constantly feuded with teammates and the press. Howard is immensely likeable. Allen suffered injuries late in his career and missed some time. Ryan Howard is about two seasons away from becoming the team's franchise first baseman.
Advantage: 2008
Second Base: Dave Cash vs. Chase Utley
Of course the nod goes to Chase Utley, so let me say a few words in favor of Cash. He spent three years with the Phillies, hit for good averages but no power. The raw numbers are unimpressive. Cash however made the All-Star team all three years. Of the twelve NL second baseman, he was second or third along with Davey Lopes. (Joe Morgan of course ranks first.) So when we pass over Cash, remember that he was a very good player.
Advantage: 2008
Shortstop: Larry F. Bowa vs. Jimmy Rollins
Larry Bowa got by on gamesmanship. He had some fielding ability and was a good baserunner. He could not hit much, even relative to a typical National League shortstop. Somehow Bowa received MVP votes for his efforts. Jimmy Rollins of course just won the MVP. Can't argue with that.
Advantage: 2008
Third Base: Mike Schmidt vs. Wes Helms
Next.
Advantage: 1976
Left Field: Greg Luzinski vs. Pat Burrell
This is a real interesting comparison. Both were power sluggers with little to offer in either speed or fielding. Burrell is a better athlete. Luzinski at this point was in the midst of a run of four consecutive top-ten MVP finishes. Burrell has one top-ten to his credit.
Advantage: 1976
Center Field: Garry Maddox vs. Shane Victorino
Maddox won eight gold gloves in a row beginning in 1975. In '76, he hit .330 with 29 stolen bases. For a '70s center fielder, that is a superstar. Victorino can field with the best of them. Maddox's OPS+'s at this point however were much higher. Another clear edge.
Advantage: 1976
Right Field: Jay Johnstone vs. Jayson Werth
Play Jay every day! Johnstone was a fourth outfielder who played so well that he forced himself into a starting role. Werth did much the same thing last season. Johnstone's ability to stay healthy gives him the edge here. You may remember him by the way from his role in Naked Gun. He is the batter Leslie Nielsen calls out in dramatic fashion.
Advantage: 1976
Bench: Tim McCarver/Bobby Tolan/Ollie Brown/Jerry Martin/Tom Hutton vs. Chris Coste/Greg Dobbs/Eric Bruntlett/T.J. Bohn/Chris Snelling
Bobby Tolan and “Downtown” Ollie Brown were mainly hitters. Tolan and Tom Hutton filled in for first baseman Dick Allen when necessary. Jerry Martin was a fifth outfielder type, while Tim McCarver covered catching duties. McCarver sat behind the plate when Steve Carlton pitched. The '76 club rarely used a utility infielder. The 2008 bench looks unimpressive at the moment. The problem with the modern bench is that the increased pitching staffs have eliminated roles for extra hitters.
Advantage: 1976
Ace Starter: Steve Carlton vs. Cole Hamels
Is Carlton over Hamels really that clear? Carlton from 1974-76 went 51-34, with ERA+ figures of 117, 105 and 114. Hamels over the last two years put up a 115 and 134. Carlton would explode into an all-time great in 1977, winning the first of three more Cy Young awards. In 1976 though, Carlton was not at that level. Cole Hamels is clearly a better pitcher. The only question is how much credit do you give Carlton for durability? Thirteen pitchers compiled more innings than Carlton over that 1974-76 stretch, so he was not an anomaly of his time.
Advantage: 2008
Rotation: Jim Kaat/Jim Lonborg/Larry Christenson/Tom Underwood vs. Brett Myers/Jamie Moyer/Kyle Kendrick/Adam Eaton
Myers put up ERA+'s of 118 and 120 before moving into the bullpen for 2007. Jim Kaat won 20 games in both 1974 and '75 with superior ERAs. He fell off in 1976. Lonborg vs. Moyer is interesting, both had mixes of good and bad seasons. Lonborg from 1974-76 went 43-29. Moyer over the last three years is 38-33, but that includes a 6-12 stretch with a bad Mariners club last year.
Christenson and Kyle Kendrick were both 22 year old starters. Christenson pitched 168.7 innings, gave up 8 home runs, 42 walks and 54 strikeouts. Kendrick pitched 121 innings, 16 home runs, 25 walks and 49 strikeouts. Kendrick had a much better ERA. Tom Underwood was another 22 year old. He had some up and down seasons but none as bad as Eaton's 2007. Really, this one is too close to call for my comfort.
Advantage: Push.
Bullpen: Ron Reed/Gene Garber/Tug McGraw/Ron Schueler/Wayne Twitchell vs. Brad Lidge/Tom Gordon/J.C. Romero/Ryan Madson/Francisco Rosario
Lidge at his peak is an elite pitcher, but neither of his last two seasons tops Ron Reed in 1976-77. Garber had a better season in '76 than Gordon last year, but Gordon's established performance gives him the edge there. McGraw over Romero is not as clear-cut as you might think. McGraw's ERA+ from 1972-76: 197, 94, 86, 126, 143. Romero from 2003-07: 91, 135, 128, 68, 243. Ron Schueler was a mediocre pitcher enjoying a fluke year, Madson is better. Ditto Wayne Twitchell. One reliever pitched a single additional game for the '76 club. The 2008 team looks bad due to lack of depth, but the '76 Phillies literally had nothing.
Advantage: 2008
The 1976 Phillies won 101 again in 1977. If the 2008 club is to match up with that standard, they have their work cut out for them. The 1976 club had more hitting depth, the 2008 Phils have deeper pitching and a historically good infield. I hope the Phillies can make a run at 100 wins though. The team has lacked an all-time great season, and this is a great shot with their entire core firmly in their prime.
As some of you may know, Major League Baseball has a system where teams can earn draft picks from other teams as compensation for lost free agents. Typically, teams trade impending free agents mid-season in order to get something in exchange for them rather to let them walk. Often however this results in a worse return than simply losing the player at the end of the season. In 2002 for example, the Chicago White Sox dealt Ray Durham to the Oakland A's in exchange for Jon Adkins. The same month, The Montreal Expos dealt Cliff Floyd to the Red Sox for Sun-Woo Kim and Seung Song. All concerned made the Majors but never distinguished themselves.
Now let's take a look at the draft compensation for 2005, and see what kind of return that process brings. I am expressing the results as if they were straight trades. I selected 2005 because I have the BA Almanac for that draft and it makes things much easier.
Arizona: Matt Torra and Micah Owings for Richie Sexson
Atlanta: Beau Jones and Jeff Lyman for Jaret Wright
Boston: Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie for Orlando Cabrera, Craig Hansen and Michael Bowden for Derek Lowe, Clay Buchholz and Jon Egan for Pedro Martinez
Chi Cubs: Mike Billek for Matt Clement
Cleveland: John Drennan and Jensen Lewis for Omar Vizquel
Colorado: Chaz Roe and Daniel Carte for Vinny Castilla
Florida: Aaron Thompson and Ryan Tucker for Armando Benitez, Jacob Marceaux and Sean West for Carl Pavano, Brett Hayes for Mike Redmond
Houston: Eli Iorg and Tommy Manzella for Carlos Beltran
LA Angels: Trevor Bell and Ryan Mount for Troy Percival
LA Dodgers: Luke Hochevar and Ivan DeJesus for Adrian Beltre (Hochevar did not sign)
Minnesota: Henry Sanchez and Paul Kelly for Corey Koskie, Brian Duensing for Christian Guzman, Drew Thompson for Henry Blanco
NY Yankees: J. Brent Cox for Orlando Hernandez, CJ Henry for Jon Lieber
Oakland: Travis Buck and Craig Italiano for Damian Miller
St. Louis: Colby Rasmus and Mark McCormick for Edgar Renteria, Tyler Herron and Josh Wilson for Mike Matheny
San Diego: Cesar Ramos and Nick Hundley for David Wells
Arizona, Atlanta, Boston came out ahead. Billek looks like a washout but Clement bombed too. Jury's out on Cleveland. Colorado came out well ahead, and Florida got three of their top ten prospects from that group. Houston got little. LA Angels came up ahead, at least until Percival unretires. Dodgers came out behind except on salaries. Jury is out on the Twins. I think Cox is a better bet than El Duque, but CJ Henry is awful. Travis Buck is a stud for Oakland. Colby Rasmus is a good prospect.
Overall, teams generally get fair value in return for their free agents. Keeping players around until they reach free agency is a reasonable move, provided you follow the terms required to get compensation back.
Not a live game this time but worthy of an entry nonetheless. Today the Phillies clinched the National League East on the final day of the season. I will leave the taunting for Mets fans out if this one. I grew up in a family that was not big into baseball, so I don't really remember a great deal about the 1993 season. This is the first time I have vivid memories of the Phillies reaching the postseason. For those who wonder why cheer for a traditionally failing team, here you go. I can not imagine any division championship being as sweet to Yankee fans as today's victory was for Phils' fans.
I don't think it's an exaggeration to say this season was the best baseball season I experienced. Around fifty live games attended. The highlights...
-Watching the Texas Rangers score 30 runs on the Baltimore Orioles.
-Seeing Louisville's Chris Dickerson hit for the cycle.
-Catching Andy Pettitte implode against the Oakland Athletics, in Yankee Stadium.
-Watching Sal F'n Fasano steal a base, straight up.
-Getting an autograph from Joba Chamberlain.
-Seeing back-to-back doubleheaders in Williamsport and Scranton.
This season included 37 games in Scranton, three in Philadelphia, one trip to Williamsport (doubleheader), a doubleheader in Baltimore, a seat in the bleachers of Yankee Stadium (overrated), two games in Reading, and shots in Harrisburg, Trenton and Lakewood. Ranking the parks by best ballpark experience.
1. Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
2. Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore)
3. First Energy Stadium (Reading)
4. First Energy Park (Lakewood)
5. Waterfront Park (Trenton)
6. Commerce Bank Park (Harrisburg)
7. Bowman Field (Williamsport)
8. Yankee Stadium
9. PNC Field (Scranton)
What games are the most crucial games in a series. At times a media outlet will trot out a statistic claiming that the team that wins game one wins the series at such and such a percentage. Is that true, and if so, does that make game one an absolute necessity. A bout of extreme boredom at work set me on the path of exploring some mathematical exploration. Using a statistical model of each team having a 50/50 shot of winning each game, I caculated how much the odds of winning a seven game series changed with each situation, such as a team up three games to one or two games to zero. Here are the various situations in order from most important to least. Importance here is defined by what extent the game changes the odds of winning the series.
1. Game Seven
2. Game Six
3. Game Four when one team holds a 2-1 series lead
4. Game Three when one team holds a 2-0 series lead
5. Game Five when one team holds a 3-1 series lead
6. Game Five when the series is tied
7. Game Two
8. Game Three when the series is tied
9. Game Four when one team holds a 3-0 series lead
10. Game One
In order to test this, I took a look at real life results, specifically MLB's last 45 postseason series. In the real world, teams taking 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 series leads have won more often than we would expect. Teams taking a 3-0 lead have won less often, but that's entirely due to one outlier in 2004. Teams taking 3-1 and 3-2 leads have won almost <I>exactly</I> as often as we expect. I think the reason for the discrepancy in the first results is because when a team takes a lead, it is often because they truly are a better team, and thus are operating at odds better than 50/50.
Teams that have won game one since 1990 have won the series 71% of the time. That's significant, but then again teams that have taken game two as well have won 90% of the time, and that is another huge gain. I think if you looked at the results of any game, you would see the same result (except for game seven, which would give you 100%). You can shift the odds around to develop different percentages, but the order above would remain roughly the same.
I don't know if you can do anything with this, but I had it down on paper and figured I would print it.
A couple days off from work gave me an opportunity to catch a ballgame. Much of the local Eastern League was on the road, leaving Reading as the only local minor league team in town. Checking the Majors, I noticed the Phillies and Orioles both played home games. Running the choices by my friend, we agreed that Baltimore was a solid option as I have been to the other parks already this season. For a bit of background, I have been to Baltimore a couple times, but never to the ballpark. The last time was July of 2001. Knowing we were staying in the Inner Harbor, I bought tickets to two baseball games. Unfortunately Baltimore had an underground train wreck, and the games were wiped out for the duration of my vacation.
Camden Yards is easy to get to, given that I-83 ends right at the Inner Harbor with minimal traffic to boot. Parking is it's usual adventure in an unfamiliar area but not too bad. Honestly, Camden is probably the most crowd-friendly ballpark I have ever been to. Bringing in outside food and drink is NOT prohibited like it is in seemingly every professional ballpark (note to Eastern and New-York Penn Leagues: league rules my ass). Walk in and of course you're greeted by the Eutaw Street promenade, the area behind the right field wall and in front of the B&O Warehouse. Leaving that building intact is the most brilliant move any park designer has done. The area of course has it's various stands including Boog's Bar-b-que. Arrive early and you can meet Boog Powell himself, as I did. Powell was nice enough to sign my ticket stub, and is approachable and gregarious. Boog and Eutaw Street are a couple of the features copied by Citizens Bank Park (Bull's Bar-b-Que and Ashburn Alley).
We sat about ten rows from the field on the first base side. What is the advantage of watching two second-division teams on a Wednesday? Sparse crowds give you a better opportunity for good seats. The seating isn't quite as comfortable as in Philadelphia but that is expected. The O's took a three-run lead early in the game, scoring one in the first and two in the third. O's fans in our section seemed lukewarm towards Miguel Tejada due to his contract and production. That is what you get with a big contract. You pay for the first years of production with the last years.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia kicked off the scoring with a two-run single in the fourth, and Ramon Vazquez followed up with a three-run home run. Vazquez's home run was a no-doubter, and really Cabrera's only serious mistake of the night.
This was the first game of a doubleheader, which is very important to know when evaluating this game. Saltalamacchia led off the sixth inning with a home run, and Trembley responded by pulling Cabrera with 96 pitches thrown, 62 for strikes. In came Brian Burres, holding a 4.45 ERA at the time. Whatever went wrong with Burres who knows? He gave up a single to Vazquez, who advanced on a wild pitch. Catalanotto walked. Ian Kinsler failed a sacrifice bunt. Michael Young singled on a line drive, loading the bases. O's fans rode the outfielders for not diving for the balls. What they miss is if they dive and miss, it's a triple. I'll come back to this however. Marlon Byrd hit a grand slam to put the game effectively out of reach, 10-3. If I have a thrill outside of the 30 spot, it's seeing Byrd come up big. The Phillies never gave Byrd a fair shot after his poor 2004 season.
After a strikeout, five straight singles, the last four on line drives. Three runs scored on those, at which point Trembley pulled Burres in favor of Rob Bell. Bell is the mop-up man, and recovering from Steve Blass disease (the same ailment that Rick Ankiel suffered as a pitcher). Bell gave up one more RBI single and got the last out on a fly ball. The Rangers went in order in the seventh. At this point, the O's fans were waiting for the second game.
I don't need to bore you with the full details of the eighth and ninth, you can check the play-by-play if you want. In the eighth the fans were cheering for a mercy rule. At the ninth when Ramon Vazquez homered again to make it thirty, the fans cheered heartily. I think everyone realized at that point they were in the midst of a historic game, not just a mere blowout. This all came about because manager Trembley wanted to save his relievers for game two. After the Rangers hung six in the ninth, there was no reliever warming up behind Shuey.
You can question not using a prime reliever or at least an outfielder, but it was just one game in the end. I made the observation that this was Baltimore's "rope a dope" strategy to win game two. The Rangers got a three spot early and the O's tied it in the third. As an aside, I saw game two pitcher Garrett Olson pitch last year with Bowie, and earlier this year with Norfolk. It was 10pm after the third, and we departed. With six innings to go, there was no reason to try and stick it out with a three-hour drive home ahead.
Overall, Camden Yards is a wonderful ballpark. The only complaint you can make is that the amenities aren't quite on par with the newest parks. That's nit-picking. Even the concourses are larger and easier to navigate than Citizens Bank Park. No reason not to get to Camden at least once.
The award balloting is occuring in the Sports forum. I figured I would list my own ballot here.
NL MVP
1: Albert Pujols, StL
2: Ryan Howard, Phi
3: Carlos Beltran, NYM
4: Miguel Cabrera, Fla
5: Lance Berkman, Hou
6: Alfonso Soriano, Was
7: Jose Reyes, NYM
8: David Wright, NYM
9: Rafael Furcal, LAD
10: Chase Utley, Phi
AL MVP
1. Derek Jeter, NYY
2. Joe Mauer, Min
3. Grady Sizemore, Cle
4. Justin Morneau, Min
5. David Ortiz, Bos
6. Manny Ramirez, Bos
7. Johan Santana, Min
8. Jermaine Dye, CWS
9. Jim Thome, CWS
10. Carlos Guillen, Det
NL Cy Young
1. Roy Oswalt, Hou
2. Brandon Webb, Ari
3. Chris Carpenter, StL
AL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana, Min
2. Roy Halladay, Tor
3. Mike Mussina, NYY
NL Manager of the Year
1. Joe Girardi, Fla
2. Bruce Bochy, SD
3. Felipe Alou, SF
AL Manager of the Year
1. Jim Leyland, Det
2. Ken Macha, Oak
3. Ron Gardenhire, Min
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Hanley Ramirez, Fla
2. Ryan Zimmerman, Was
3. Dan Uggla, Fla
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Justin Verlander, Det
2. Kenji Johjima, Sea
3. Jon Papelbon, Bos
Last time out I looked at players who led MLB in Runs Created Above Position over a ten year span. Most of the players are obvious. Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, etc. Some of the names however seemed surprising. In this entry I hope to shed some light on the lesser lights of the list.
Fred Dunlap (1876)
As I mentioned in the previous entry, Dunlap's position rests entirely on the strength of a single season in the Union Association, undoubtedly the weakest league ever considered a Major. Dunlap in 1884 collected 185 hits and walked 29 times. From this he managed to score 160 runs. To give you an idea of 19th century baseball, the U.A. saw 2,500 earned runs scored, and 2,325 unearned runs. No clue how many times Dunlap reached via error, but it was probably a significant number. Fielding percentages in the league ranged from .841 to .892. If we rated players from this era solely upon their performance in the National League, Dunlap would rate 11th.
King Kelly (1877-1879)
Kelly in his day was likely the most popular player of the 19th Century. There are volumes of information you can read on him, both as a person and a player. Kelly was simply one of the first matinée idols of baseball. Kelly won two batting titles and led his league in runs three times. Some batters of the day were better, such as Cap Anson and Roger Connor. Kelly comes to the front of the pack due to his playing catcher and right field for the majority of his career.
Dan Brouthers (1880-1886)
Simply the preeminant hitter of his era, Brouthers led his league in batting average five times, slugging percentage seven times, and OPS eight times.
Billy Hamilton (1887-1891)
The first great leadoff man. Hamilton's 912 career steals stood until Brock broke the record in 1977.* Hamilton also still holds the record for runs scored in a season, with 196.
*Yes, Brock broke Cobb's record. Baseball-Reference credits Hamilton with 912 stolen bases, I assume a revised total.
Arky Vaughan (1933)
Vaughan led the league in OBP three straight years, as a shortstop. At his peak he was one of the greatest shortstops of all time. Vaughan made more plate appearances than Joe Dimaggio, and struck out less.
Frank Robinson (1960-61)
A bit of a surprise, Robinson led the league in OPS and slugging percentage four times, and won two MVP awards.
Top Prospects - International League
SP Phil Hughes, NYY
SP Homer Bailey, Cin
SP Matt Garza, Min
SP Adam Miller, Cle
SP Jeff Niemann, TB
OF Adam Lind, Tor
1B Joey Votto, Cin
OF Ryan Sweeney, CWS
3B Josh Fields, CWS
SP Glen Perkins, Min
SP Kevin Slowey, Min
These players made the Top 100 in either the Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus Top 100 list (in fact, all made both lists). This month, the only top 100 prospect set to come through is Philip Hughes, and my friend is already bugging me to get him a ticket to Wednesday's game.
And thank god I just made a spot check on that ticket online. Today's game has been cancelled due to "snow and cold." Babies. The fun thing is that Norfolk will not return to Scranton the rest of the season (they make up the game in Norfolk). I planned to publish this later, but with no game tonight that concludes this entry.
The news out of Philadelphia is that the Phillies want to persue free agent outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Presumably they would trade Pat Burrell to open up left field. Soriano has long been looked at in the sabermetric community as an overrated player, even a bad one. At some points, that flies in the face of logic. What do we make of Soriano? Is he a promising player into his 30s, or a potential liability?
Soriano's comparables at his age include Howard Johnson, Tony Batista, Matt Williams, Bob Horner and Jeff Kent. Howard Johnson is an interesting case. Like Soriano, Johnson had a huge year at age 30, hitting 38 home runs and stealing 30 bases. Johnson hit .233 the next season with 7 home runs. Ouch. Still, you wonder how accurate the comparisons are given that Soriano didn't get started until he was 25, now plays left field, and has plate discipline unlike most of his comparables.
Using Lee Sinins' sabermetric encyclopedia, I sought to create a new group of comparables. I asked the program to give me a list of all players who hit 150 home runs, stole 150 bases, and produced an OBP between .315 and .340 (Soriano's is .325). The list produced fifteen players, one of which is Soriano. That leaves us with 14 comps. Let's take a look at them, purely after age 30.
EXCELLENT: Andre Dawson
VERY GOOD: Dave Parker, Steve Finley, Dante Bichette
GOOD: Bill Buckner, Ron Gant, Devon White
FAIR: Vada Pinson, Juan Samuel, Raul Mondesi, Claudell Washington
POOR: Marquis Grissom, Lloyd Moseby, Howard Johnson
Dawson made five all-star teams, Bichette and Parker made three, and Finley two. Except for Dawson, none were truly great players in their 30s. Most players remained productive well into their careers though. We would expect players with high stolen base totals to remain good later on, as truly athletic players at 50% are still good athletes. What's interesting is that Soriano has a higher isolated power figure than any other player on the list.
Going forward, it's difficult to tell what to expect. Players of Soriano's caliber don't remain stars, but Soriano's such a unique player that he may buck the trend. You hope that the Phillies (or any team) have him scouted well, and have taken the stats into consideration.
Some down time today allows me to fool around with the Sabermetric Encyclopedia.
-Over the last two seasons, Chase Utley has hit 60 home runs, driven in 207 runs, and stolen 31 bases. Only twelve other players in baseball have compiled numbers better in their age 26/27 seasons. Eleven of those twelve are outfielders, and none are second basemen. That should put Chase's ability into perspective. Just for assurances, I removed steals, and Utley still remains the only second baseman on the list.
-How many 21 year old left handed, 5'7" pitchers have there been in the modern era? One, Fabio Castro. Bobby Shantz is an interesting comparison though. Shantz won the AL MVP award in 1952, compiling a 24-7 record for the Philadelphia Athletics. Shantz soon suffered injuries and never won more than 11 games again, but thrived in bullpen work later in his career. It's the same story. Great talent, but durability issues.
-I got Game six of the 1975 World Series of Netflix. I hope Bored does his writeup of this game soon. One interesting, overlooked aspect of the series is that it was the Reds, not the Red Sox, who had the burden of failure to escape. The Reds won 102 games in 1970 but lost the World Series to the Baltimore Orioles. They finished fifth in 1971. In 1972, the Reds lost the World Series to the Athletics in seven games. All four of their losses were one run margins. Then in 1973, the Reds lost the NLCS to the 82-79 New York Mets.
-Speaking of that series, the 1975 World Series is probably the most underrated World Series of all time. It's overlooked because it had one true classic that everyone focuses on. Four of the other games were nailbiters too, and game one was not decided until the seventh inning.
There Were Others
On April 15, 1947, Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier when he took the field for the Brooklyn Dodgers. Robinson showed class and courage in dealing with the conditions of his time. He was not the only player, however. Four other african-americans played Major League Baseball in '47. They faced the same obstacles, but not all experienced similar success.
Larry Doby: The Cleveland Indians became the second MLB team to desegregate, and the first American League team. Doby debuted on July 5th and spent most of the season as a pinch hitter. Doby hit just .156 (5 for 32) with one walk and one double. Despite his poor performance, Doby stayed with the club for eight more seasons. Owner Bill Veeck claimed he desired to buy the Phillies in 1943 and staff them with negro league players, but this claim has never been substantiated. Veeck did integrate the Indians however, and reaped the rewards the next season. Larry Doby blossomed, the team added Satchel Paige to its bullpen and the club won the World Series.
Hank Thompson and Willard Brown: The St. Louis Browns next tried their hand at integration. Observers might remember Jackie's problems with St. Louis. It proved a less than ideal environment. Thompson played second base and hit .256 with plate discipline but no power. Willard Brown hit just .179. Brown hit the first home run by a black player in the American League. As Bill James' Historical Abstract reports, Brown had trouble hitting with lighter bats. Trying to find a heavier bat to suit his tastes, he found a bat with the knob broken off. He hit the home run with the bat. Afterwards the prior owner, Jeff Heath, reclaimed the bat and shattered it against the clubhouse wall. Clearly player relations were not fully resolved before the experiment. Hank Thompson returned to the Majors in 1949 and integrated the New York Giants, spending eight years with the club. Willard Brown never again played in the Majors, but gained election to the Hall of Fame in the special election of 2006.
Dan Bankhead: One of five baseball playing brothers, Bankhead joined Jackie Robinson on the Dodgers in late August. Bankhead made four pitching appearances in relief, pitching ten innings and allowing eight runs (good for a 7.20 ERA). Bankhead returned to the Dodgers in 1950 as a long reliever/spot starter, this time posting a 5.50 ERA with a 9-4 record.
Except for Doby, none are truly memorable figures in baseball. But all experienced the same trials and tribulations as Jackie, and deserve recognition in their own right.
Last night Tampa Bay's Edwin Jackson lasted 1/3 of an inning, giving up five runs, five hits, two walks, and two home runs. Currently his ERA stands at 8.20 along with a gaudy 0-8 win/loss record. Anthony Reyes of the St. Louis Cardinals was also 0-8 upon his return to the minors. Four pitchers in the Majors collected ten or more wins in a season without a loss. How about on the opposite end, the pitchers with the most losses in a season without a win? Are Jackson and Reyes close?
1 Terry Felton 1982 13 0 4.99 -11
T2 Russ Miller 1928 12 0 5.42 -12
T2 Steve Gerkin 1945 12 0 3.62 -4
4 Charlie Stecher 1890 10 0 10.32 -48
T5 Tom Tuckey 1909 9 0 4.25 -17
T5 Rod Beck 1996 9 0 3.34 6
T5 Heathcliff Slocumb 1997 9 0 5.16 -4
T5 Earl Hamilton 1917 9 0 3.14 -5
T5 Stump Wiedman 1880 9 0 3.40 -15
T5 Edgar Gonzalez 2004 9 0 9.32 -25
Very close. The first column is the season, second is number of losses, third is wins, fourth is Earned Run Average and fifth is Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA). RSAA simply measures the runs above or below what a pitcher with a league average ERA would have allowed in similar innings. Rod Beck immediately strikes me as he pitched well in 1996, posting a 3.34 ERA. Looking at his gamelogs from that season, Beck entered the game just 7 times with his teams behind, 6 times with the game tied and 50 times with his team ahead. Talk about being setup to fail.
Terry Felton is baseball's hard luck man. Felton pitched in three other seasons for the Minnesota Twins, finishing with an 0-16 record.
Jackson is close, but the problem is that pitchers of this nature are unlikely to continue pitching. He may well have pitched himself out of the rotation in favor of Jason Hammel at this point. If Jackson is out, he falls well short of the mark of pitching futility. The standard remains Steve Blass, who lasted 88.7 innings with an ERA of 9.85 in 1973.
Rain Delay
Most of you know I went to Raw on Monday. Tuesday I attended the Scranton/Durham game, on assignment from Baseball Info Solutions. I've been working my other job 730-5 all week, so the lack of sleep Monday night hurt. Still I figured, at least I'd get home a bit earlier from the game, right? Rain was in the forecast, but I didn't figure they would wait two hours to finish up a game. In the top of the eighth, the game resumed with maybe 50 fans in attendance, along with the stadium staff. All for seven more outs of baseball. Dustin Mohr created a scare in the ninth when he hit a home run shot 20 feet foul. Imagine that game going into extra innings. With such a small crowd, you can hear the game chatter from the field. It's certainly a unique experience and I like it in a way. It's too bad you have to sit through crappy weather to get to it.
THIRD ROUND
Minnesota 4
Boston 3
Torii Hunter gave the Twins the lead in the first inning with a three run double. The Sox scored two runs in the ninth but their comeback fell short with the tying run on base.
San Diego 6
Chi. Sox 0
Jake Peavy pitched eight scoreless innings for the victory.
Chi. Cubs 4
Kansas City 2
Alfonso Soriano's three-run home run in the second inning sparked the offense for the Cubs.
Atlanta 7
NY Yankees 4
The Braves scored four runs in the fifth inning, including two on Kelly Johnson's triple. The Braves scored two insurance runs in the ninth on an E-5 and a passed ball.
Oakland 8
LA Angels 5
The A's scored seven runs in the fourth and fifth innings, led by three RBIs by Mark Ellis. Chad Gaudin and Jered Weaver combined for five wild pitches.
Colorado 6
Washington 0
San Francisco 11
Buffalo 6
The Giants dominated the mid-innings, breaking up a 3-3 tie in the fifth off Jeremy Sowers and cruising from there. Randy Messenger allowed three Buffalo runs in the ninth.
St. Louis 9
Cleveland 3
C.C. Sabathia allowed seven earned runs in the loss.
That leaves us with the elite eight. Tomorrow's matchups...
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Oakland Athletics @ Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
With the Baseball Writers making their decision, the Baseball Hall of Fame discussion turns to the Veterans' Committee ballot. The Veterans ballot occurs every other year, and is voted on by all living Hall of Famers, as well as writers and broadcasters. Currently, I believe the system is ill-constructed. There are too many vaguely qualified candidates on the ballot and no way to reach a consensus. The system would be much improved by taking the top ten vote getters and running a second, run-off ballot. As it stands, I doubt this system will result in any new inductees.
Dick Allen: One of the most controversial players in the history of baseball. Allen seemingly created trouble wherever he landed. Often, teams were eager to get rid of him despite his tremendous production. His talent is unquestioned. In 1966, Allen slugged .632 when the league as a whole slugged .399. Allen led the league in OPS four times, slugging three times, and On Base Percentage twice. His adjusted OPS ranks 21st all time. Unfortunately, he had a relatively short career. Bill James argues that Allen was more trouble than he was worth. I'm not sure what to make of it. Right no, I'd have to say no.
Bobby Bonds: Until Andre Dawson and Barry Bonds, Bobby was the greatest combination of power and speed in the history of baseball. Bobby, like Dick Allen, had a relatively short career. Unlike Dick Allen, he was not a dominant player. He did not win an MVP and he played in just three All-Star games. He wasn't great, and he wasn't very good for long enough.
Ken Boyer: Boyer is a tremendously underrated player, one who receives little acclaim because he played in an era of low offense and contributed across the board. For seven years, Boyer hit 23-32 home runs a season and collected 90+ RBIs. At the same time, he won five Gold Gloves at third base. Boyer finished in the top ten of MVP voting three times, winning the award in 1964. I can't endorse Boyer, but it is closer than people realize.
Rocky Colavito: A feared power hitter in his prime, Colavito hit 40+ home runs in three seasons. He finished in the top ten of MVP voting four times. Again, Colavito had a short career, retiring at the age of 34. Rocky led the league in home runs once, RBIs once, slugging percentage once. None of his ten comparable players are in the Hall of Fame. Colavito just wasn't good enough at his peak to merit induction.
Wes Ferrell: 193 wins and a 4.04 ERA is not generally remarkable. Ferrell did win 91 games over four seasons. He pitched in a genuinely difficult era for pitchers. The most remarkable statistic about Ferrell is his hitting. Ferrell hit .280/.351/.446 over the course of his career, league average numbers out of the pitching spot. His .601 winning percentage is impressive, but he just didn't last long enough. Ferrell pitched just 8 games after turning 30.
Curt Flood: Flood essentially retired rather than accept a trade to the Philadelphia Phillies. He challenged baseball's reserve clause and lost. Again we have a player who enjoyed a short career. During his career, Flood was a league average hitter with a sensational glove. Flood was possibly one of the top five defensive outfielders of all time. However, I can't see how half a season of that makes a Hall of Famer.
Joe Gordon: Yet another short career guy. Gordon gets a pass for two seasons however because he served during World War II. Gordon was absolutely a Hall of Fame talent at his peak. He won an MVP and finished in the top ten four other times. He made the All-Star team nine times, every season except his first and last years. Gordon played on five championship clubs. Given credit for the war years, I think Gordon deserves induction.
Gil Hodges: A popular player, but only the 5th or 6th best player on his club. Hodges only finished in the top ten of MVP balloting twice, and never really got close to winning. Hodges never led the league in a significant offensive category. Hodges accumulated a lot of RBIs because he played on great teams, but he was not a great player. The only way he merits induction is if you give him credit for managing the Miracle Mets. I can't see it.
Jim Kaat: Kaat is an interesting case. He wasn't a great pitcher, just a very good one who lasted a LONG time. That might not sound impressive, but I've always maintained that if it were easy to stick around and accumulate numbers, more pitchers would do it. Kaat's numbers are similar to Robin Roberts and Ferguson Jenkins. He's borderline, but I would vote for him. 283 wins is enough.
Rundown: Jim Kaat and Joe Gordon in this batch. Mickey Lolich through Lefty O'Doul in the next batch, and we'll finish with Tony Oliva through Maury Wills.
I've been putting this off for several days. As some of you might imagine, I am somewhat steamed by the trade that sent Bobby Abreu to the Yankees for four prospects. Abreu was one of my favorite players, and the Yankees are my most hated enemy. But sometimes good baseball sense requires that you set personal feelings aside and make decisions that win games. So I would like to be as fair about this as possible.
First off, the trade is terrible, value-for-value. The Phillies sent a player away with a .301 career batting average, .412 OBP, 261 career stolen bases, and two All-Star appearances. I could recite statistics all day. The players the Phillies got in return include a 20 year old shortstop in Low A known more for his athleticism than his production, a 27 year old middle reliever currently in AAA, and two prospects with potential but too far away to even project. All the circumstances in the trade point to a pure salary dump. That the Phils got little in return and did it at the trading deadline gives the impression that they wanted (or perhaps needed) to clear Abreu's salary as quickly as possible. Let's face it. Attendance at the new Citizens Bank Park has settled back to 2.6 Million after spiking to 3.2 Million its first season. Pessimistic messages by G.M. Pat Gillick will not help season ticket sales. The previous payroll of $95 Million is probably not sustainable in the eyes of the club. (It probably is, but I'm not going to turn this into another essay about club economics).
The trade aside, does this move make the Phillies better? Payroll flexibility gets thrown around alot, but that implies that the Phillies will both spend the savings, and that there are players worth buying. Maybe by spending the money on two players you come out ahead by plugging holes. That's entirely possible, but we will not see that until the offseason. In the meantime, improvements in the Phillies play will no doubt be attributed to some sort of clubhouse chemestry, the idea being that Abreu was some sort of curmudgeon whose mere presence forced Ryan Franklin to throw multiple gopher balls.
That of course is nonsense. But defense is not, and Abreu's play in right field has declined over the last two seasons. You can punt defense in one corner, but putting up with Abreu in right field AND Pat Burrell's declining range in left field has worsened the defense, and might be responsible for some of the Phils' inability to prevent runs. I feel fairly comfortable even as an Abreu fan working under the assumption that switching right fielders will improve the defense.
Does that make up for the lack of offense? Most fans assume that adding/deleting a star makes a greater difference than it really does. David Dellucci has actually posted a better OPS the last two years than Bobby Abreu. Abreu has a higher OBP, by perhaps 70 points. Over the last two months of the season, that works out to reaching base about 14 times more.
Now, Dellucci's offense is largely based against right handed pitching. By a happy coincidence, Shane Victorino is crushing LEFT handed pitching this season. If you get a right-handed hitting platoon partner for Dellucci, you've replaced 80% of Abreu's production at about a third of the cost. The Phils play only a fourth of their games against lefties, so Dellucci's lack of production against lefties isn't a serious problem.
You know, I actually like this deal a bit. I don't think the Phillies are much worse without Abreu, and they should be able to pick up some help over the offseason. The Phils have some young pitching coming up the system, and I think they'll contend next season.
Other Phillies Notes:
The last Phillies notes on MLB.com reported the outstanding batting line of Branden Florence in Class A Clearwater. What the article didn't mention is that Florence is a designated hitter and sometime left fielder, and that he's 28 years old. In his prime, he's posted an MLE (Major League Equivelency) of .252/.283/.323. In context, Peter Bergeron's a better prospect.....SS Adrian Cardenas is ripping up the Gulf Coast League. He has an excellent chance of showing up on my postseason top 30 prospect list....The Red Barons are six games up on the playoffs with 32 games left.
The World Series is over, the Cardinals defeating the Tigers in five games. And in a way, I am glad the Series is over. Yes, it means no more Major League Baseball until March. But this Series was one of the more excruciating baseball experiences of my life. There were times I did not want to even watch the games, but felt obligated.
Neither the Cardinals or Tigers really set the world afire. This is one of the problems with parity. Yes, you have a greater number of teams competing for the postseason. The problem is that the more parity you add, the closer the league as a whole finishes to .500. It isn't necessarily a lack of overall quality, it could be balance. And when you get to the postseason, you no longer have those strong teams that everyone wants to watch. When you combine that with a eight team postseason, you get a system where the World Series combatants are two seemingly random teams instead of the two best teams in the league.
Of course, that shouldn't be an issue to a hardcore fanatic like myself. The problem, and it pains me to say this, was that the games were boring. With a capital B. Game One saw the Cards score the game-winning run in the third inning. The Tigers got the game-winning run in the first inning of game two. The Cards scored the game winning run in the fourth innings of game three and five. Only the fourth game was of any quality whatsoever. Compare that with last year's sweep, in which three of four were decided in the eighth inning or later.
I don't know what you do about that quite honestly. Sometimes you get classics and sometimes you get stinkers. I guess the big issue is when you combine it with all of Fox's crap. God Bless America during the stretch, endless crowd shots, quick camera work, and those awful, awful commercials. All I know is that for the next four months, all I have are my dvds. Commercial free, classic baseball. Beats the hell out of watching Fox.
Who would you take to start a franchise? This is a popular question for baseball arguments. The idea is to choose not only the best player, but the player who will continue to produce in the future. Barry Bonds was a dominant hitter in 2004, but would you take him to start a team knowing he was 40 and a few years (we presume) from retirement? With that premise in mind, I sought to devise a list of the players who would answer that question throughout history. For example, if you were starting a team in 1965, who would be the first player you would want?
A few parameters. First, if I asked software what player produced the most post-1950, it would be Barry Bonds. This is unrealistic as Bonds would not debut until decades later. So I looked at statistics for ten years following the year in question. For 1950, I would look at statistics from 1950 to 1959. This provides a good result, limiting players who produced by hanging on. I drew up the leaders in Runs Created Above Position (RCAP). This is similar to Runs Created Above Average, except it looks at average production at the position instead of the league as a whole. This prevents the list from being dominated by simply the best hitters. Playing a premium defensive position helps. Keep in mind however that the system does not take defense into account. A player such as Ozzie Smith or Willie Mays might not get their just due. The Mantle vs. Mays arguments we could hear all day. You'll also note that this lacks pitchers. They might comprise a second list in the future. It is the best of what we have so far.
A note on war service. Several players, notably Ted Williams, missed time in the Majors due to military service. When evaluating them as players, it is proper to give them credit for time missed. In this project however, it counts against them. Baseball itself did not stop for war, and teams who lost players missed their services, creating a real impact on their overall success. Would you start a team with a player you knew would miss four years? Probably not.
Barry Bonds (1986-1997)
Wade Boggs (1980-83, 1985)
Rickey Henderson (1984)
George Brett (1979)
Mike Schmidt (1975-78)
Joe Morgan (1965-74)
Dick Allen (1964)
Hank Aaron (1962-63)
Frank Robinson (1960-61)
Willie Mays (1958-59)
Mickey Mantle (1950-57)
Stan Musial (1942-45, 1948-49)
Ted Williams (1937-41, 1946-47)
Mel Ott (1934-36)
Arky Vaughan (1933)
Jimmie Foxx (1932)
Lou Gehrig (1927-31)
Babe Ruth (1914-15, 1917-26)
Rogers Hornsby (1916)
Ty Cobb (1906-13)
Honus Wagner (1896-05)
Ed Delahanty (1892-95)
Billy Hamilton (1887-91)
Dan Brouthers (1880-86)
King Kelly (1877-79)
Fred Dunlap (1876)
Twenty-six players are on the list. Of those, 22 are enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Two are ineligible. That leaves out Dick Allen and Fred Dunlap. Allen missed half a career and was considered a clubhouse cancer. Fred Dunlap's presence surprised me. Looking at his career, his placement is explained by an excellent 1884 season. .412 batting average, 250 OPS+, 13 home runs, .621 slugging percentage. This is in a league where the total slugging percentage was .316! Therein lies the problem. The league in question is the Union Association. The UA lasted one season. Dunlap's OPS in the UA in 1884 was 1.069. He sandwiched that season between seasons in the National League, where he collected OPS's of .813 and .667 in the seasons before and after. When a player has a performance spike like that, you have to question its legitimacy.
1876-1885
RCAP RCAP
1 Fred Dunlap 272
2 King Kelly 234
3 Charley Jones 233
4 Pete Browning 232
5 Cap Anson 222
6 Dan Brouthers 205
7 Jim O'Rourke 203
8 George Gore 187
9 Roger Connor 186
10 Paul Hines 183
Of Dunlap's figure, 135 came from the 1884 season alone. I can not accept that. Given King Kelly's appeal as a gate attraction, he is probably the rightful holder of the title in 1876 as well, thr birth of the National League.
One other fun variation to note immediately. Babe Ruth holds the title from 1914-26 except for one year, 1916. You might note that 1916 is the one that would run until 1925. That was the season where Ruth missed serious time due to a mysterious stomach ailment and a suspension. Rogers Hornsby in 1925 hit .403 with 39 home runs and a .736 slugging percentage. Perfect conditions for a one year takeover.
Any player who held the honor for five or more years is probably in the discussion as one of the greatest players of all time. I will likely follow up on some of the other names on the list. Feel free to leave questions and/or feedback.
Since I recently subscribed to WWE 24/7, I thought this would be good to write up. For those of you who have accessibility, I highly recommend it. A full compliment of wrestling programming, some changing over from week to week. Old house shows, Pay-per-views, television programs, etc. I honestly do not have enough time to watch it all.
A short forward. I do not pay much attention to psychology, workrate, etc. I tend to take a historian's viewpoint of wrestling. I will note bad wrestling, but I do not intend this to be match reviews. Just some thoughts that cross my mind at specific instances.
Sherri Martel vs. Fabulous Moolah
This match is where Sherri won the WWF women's title. This was pretty bad. Ric Flair is 57 and still wrestling part-time, but few view him as a legitimate contender to anything. Moolah here is 63 and the reigning champion! I guess the company lacked a name after they dumped Wendi Richter, but damn. Looking back on this, I think some people miss the boat on womens' wrestling. At some point, you would like to see a long term, valid womens' division. But what is the point? You are not going to draw MORE money when you have the women wrestling. When you have a hot act, like Sable or Trish Stratus, you cobble together a division and come up with some worthy challengers. If not, you set it on the back burner.
Bruiser Brody vs. Abdullah the Butcher
Brody and Abdullah were two wrestlers who would never job. After watching this match, the genius of it all is that neither one has to. You can avoid having a big blow off match because you know they would murder each other, and the promoter could not afford the damage costs. So you let them go out, wreck the place for 10-12 minutes and send them off to the next town. The other brilliant side of this is when you have two psycho monster heels. When you pair them off of each other, you turn one of them de facto face, and get a great reaction for it. Just look at Blassie/Tolos.
Hercules vs. Junkyard Dog
This is from the Spectrum in November of '87. A poster whose name I can not recall posted some Wrestling Observer notes from '87. In those, Meltzer referred to JYD as the worst worker in wrestling. Now, obviously there are green guys wrestling in front of 20 people who are always worse. But JYD was certainly the worst worker in a major promotion. His offense just looks absolutely putrid. It is almost embarrassing for a wrestler to sell his headbutts.
ECW Wrestling
It is hard to believe these are over a decade old already. The original music is long gone, so the original feel is somewhat gone. You know what made ECW great? It wasn't the quality wrestling or anything that stood far beyond the big two. It was that the big matches aired on free tv, on their television program. I think ECW lost much of its fun once Pay Per View started. And for all the complaining about the current product, it wasn't that good on TNN either. The big problem now, as with the TNN product, is that the show seems stuck in a holding pattern. They desperately need storyline progression.
Normally I stick to writing about baseball, but sometimes topics come around that are too good to pass up. Logging onto ESPN.com, I was greated with a request to take a short survey. Ok, these are short and relatively painless. I'm paraphrasing the first two questions.
Year of birth, how many hours do you spend on the internet?
21-30 hours, 1981. My town doesn't have nightlife and I prefer the internet over television.
Are you familiar with a term called Erectile Disfunction?
And I thought I was forward. Yes, it's kind of hard to miss.
On a 1-5 scale, how would you describe your level of awareness of the symptoms of erectile dysfunction (ED)?
Depends on what you mean by awareness. And really, how unaware can you be of the symptoms? There's just one. It's when you look down and notice your erectile is disfunctioning.
Please indicate how strongly you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.
There are effective treatments for erectile dysfunction
Drugs? No. Women? Yes. Somehow I doubt ESPN.com intends to try and sell me the former.
Erectile dysfunction is a common problem among men your age
If by that you mean the damned urge won't go away, then yes.
You would like to learn more about erectile dysfunction
It just occurs to me that the survey didn't ask about my gender. Why yes, I find erectile dysfunction fascinating. When I sit down with my buddies to watch baseball, we regularly mute the game so we can sit in a circle and learn more about how our dicks are working (and not working). I take notes and pay visits to girlfriends later. I'm smart like that.
Millions of men are being safely and successfully treated for erectile dysfunction
Is this a survey or a quiz?
Half of all men over 30 have some form of ED
Strongly disagree. It should be noted that functional umm, operations can lead to successful sex and then childbirth, which I oppose.
If you thought you or your male partner might suffer from the symptoms of erectile dysfunction (ED), how comfortable would you feel talking to your doctor about it?
I don't even like talking to my doctor about my diabetes.
How interested are you in learning more information about erectile dysfunction (ED)?
Ha.
How likely are you to talk to your doctor about erectile dysfunction (ED)?
I'm shocked I'm even talking to YOU.
How likely are you to look for information online about erectile dysfunction (ED)?
This blog is as far as it gets.
Do you recall seeing an online advertisement about erectile dysfunction (ED)?
No, and that's legit. I've trained myself not to notice online advertising.
Do you recall seeing an online advertisement featuring Dr. Drew in a stadium?
I've seen Kimberly Franklin in a stadium (Gang bang Girl 32).
When thinking of products for improving men’s erections, what ONE brand comes to mind first?
Hustler.
And so on. Luckily I have an ESPN Insider pass from a friend, so ESPN.com now knows how interested a certain TSM Moderator is about erectile dysfunction. Personally, I never knew focus marketing could be so blatant and yet so vauge. They should just come out and say, "should we advertise viagra on our website?" That would save everyone a lot of trouble. Because frankly, when ESPN.com starts asking me about my medical history, survey over.
I'd just like to know what type of person answers "why yes, I'd love to know more about erectile dysfunction." No jokes about current TSM posters please.
Recently I stumbled upon Baseball America's archive of its Top 100 prospect lists from their inception in 1990 until today. John Sickels has a regular feature on his blog chronicaling the paths of some of the top players in baseball. I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at some of the players once considered top prospects in the Phillies systems. There are some hits (Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, Scott Rolen), and some duds (Ryan Brannan). More interestingly, there are guys who went on to big careers who were not top prospects, like Mike Lieberthal. I figured I would start this with a player viewed as a top prospect who crashed. Tyler Green made Baseball America's Top Prospect List three times, yet failed miserably as an MLB player.
The Phils drafted Green tenth overall out of the 1991 Amateur Draft. Perhaps they were mesmerized by visions of Dallas Green. In any case, Green must have had good raw stuff. His initial numbers back his ability. Green debuted with three starts in Short-Season A Batavia, and followed with two in High A Clearwater. His numbers in those starts included a 3-0 record, 28 IP, 10 Hits, 0 HRs, 14 BBs and 39 Ks. The walks were high, but the strikeout numbers were outstanding. Based on his scouting report and that showing, Baseball America rated Green the 26th best prospect in baseball.
1992 saw Green fast-tracked to AA Reading. In 12 starts he dominated again, pitching 62.3 innings, 46 hits, 2 HRs, 20 BBs and 67 Ks, 1.88 ERA. Green was promoted to AAA Scranton but only made two starts, pitching 10.3 innings and walking twelve, posting a 6.10 ERA. After the season Baseball America rated Green the number 31 prospect in baseball.
Missed time combined with an abysmal record (particularly with a high walk rate) usually indicates an injury. Unfortunately I can not find direct information confirming it. One thing for certain though is that Green never pitched as well again. In 1993 Tyler spent most of the season at AAA Scranton. His K rate fell to 6.62 per nine. His 3.95 ERA netted him a trip to Philly however where he was shelled in three appearances.
After that season Baseball America demoted Green all the way to 36. Without the knowledge of DIPS, Green's performance looked decent enough on the surface. He fell to earth in 1994. Spending the entire year in AAA Scranton, Green struck out just 95 batters in 162 innings, walked 77, gave up 25 home runs, and posted a 5.56 ERA. (The minors stayed in business during the MLB strike.) Green fell off the Baseball America Prospect list. Undaunted, the Phillies called Green to their rotation to start the 1995 season. Green compiled an 8-9 record with a 5.31 ERA, again with poor peripherals. Injuries would again strike, costing Tyler the 1996 campaign.
Green returned to Scranton in 1997, delivering a 6.10 ERA in 12 starts. Looking over those numbers, the Phillies realized they had no choice but to promote him. Green finished the year in Philadelphia, posting a 4.93 ERA in 14 starts. Green then pitched all of 1998 with the Phillies, delivering a 5.03 ERA. Green never again pitched in the majors. He had one more awful year in Scranton (4-6, 7.69 ERA), and drew his release. AAA Buffalo picked him up the next year and received an 8.38 ERA in 29 innings for their troubles.
Looking over Green, we have a pitcher who ha obvious talent, but was derailed by injuries. Even the surest of pitching prospects walks this minefield, which is why some sabermetrically inclined prospect mavens are increasingly hesitant to name a pitcher as the top prospect in baseball. See Ryan Anderson for an example. Thanks to the Stats Inc. 2001 Minor League Handbook for the numbers. The Baseball Cube page is in error regarding some of Green's 1992/93 stats with Scranton.
Before I begin, another word on Joe Gordon. Despite a short career, Gordon is one of only four second baseman to hit 25+ home runs in five seasons. The others are Rogers Hornsby, Ryne Sandberg and Jeff Kent.
Mickey Lolich: Lolich's inclusion on the ballot is frankly puzzling. Lolich compiled a 217-191 record, not a great percentage for a candidate with that few wins. His sole qualification seems that for a two year stretch he compiled a 47-28 record with a 2.73 ERA. Using Lee Sinins' Runs Saved Above Average, his 52 RSAA over that stretch placed him eighth among pitchers. Only one of his ten comps are in the Hall, and that pitcher (Jim Bunning) had far superior ERAs.
Sparky Lyle: With four closers in the Hall and more coming, perhaps we missed one or two? Looking over relievers with 200+ games finished in the 1970s, Lyle ranks 5th in WHIP, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in saves, 2nd in RSAA, and 7th in strikeout/walk ratio. He won a Cy Young award in 1977. I can't endorse Lyle however. He was not the best reliever of the 1970s, instead competing for second among John Hiller, Mike Marshall, and others not considered candidates at all. None of his ten comparable pitchers are even candidates. The numbers just don't support this one.
Marty Marion: It is difficult to gauge Marion because his value rests on his defensive abilities. Contemporaries felt highly of Marion. He won an MVP award and finished in the top ten three times. He gained selection to eight consecutive All-Star games. Two caveats apply however. One, Marion only played thirteen seasons. Second, his best years occured during World War II when much of his competition was overseas. When there was no war, his OPS+ fell below 80. He simply was not a great player.
Roger Maris: Maris carries most of the loudest arguments towards his induction, and they may become louder yet with the steroid controversy looming over the new record holder(s). My position is that if that 61 did not appear on Maris's record, he would not be within a mile of the Hall of Fame. He won two MVP awards. He only appeared on four All-Star teams and only received any MVP support at all in one other season. None of his ten comparable players are in the Hall. Maris was a great player for two seasons. If two seasons of greatness are the standard of the Hall, then there are MANY other players who would deserve the honor.
Carl Mays: Carl Mays threw the pitch that killed Ray Chapman. He also compiled a 207-126 record, not many wins but an impressive winning percentage. Mays is another player in the "lost it early" group. Mays never dominated the league however, only finishing first in a handful of categories. He pitched for the Red Sox dynasty of the teens and the Yankees' dynasty of the early '20s. I suspect his win/loss record is due in part to pitching for great teams, and his other stats give him little extra support.
Minnie Minoso: Bill James' favorite candidate. The Minnie Minoso argument states that he didn't stick in the Majors until he was 26, and had a Hall of Fame career afterwards. If we take that statement for face value, how does Minoso rate with other left fielders, age 26 and older? I'm unimpressed. Minoso rates among the leaders, but those above him include illuminaries such as Bob Johnson and Luis Gonzalez, who are not serious candidates. Some like to support Minoso's candidacy by isolating his statistics in his 30s. Unless he collected 200 hits a year from ages 21-25, he would not have gotten 3,000 hits. Minoso finished in the top ten of MVP voting five times and made seven All-Star teams. Looking for a similar player, I spotted Ken Singleton. Minoso received more acclaim due to his speed, but they were roughly equal in value. Singleton is not a viable candidate. I can not support Minoso either.
Thurman Munson: Do you make an allowance for Munson passing away early? I don't believe you should, that Munson's case should be treated like any other injured player. But let's set that aside for the second. Using the same trick we used for Minoso, how does Munson compare with catchers up to the age of his death? Munson fails to impress in this regard. He rates 19th in OBP, 7th in hits, 11th in RBIs, 16th in RCAA, and 11th in Runs scored. Many non-Hall of Famers rank above him. Munson's slugging percentage fell off the table in 1978, so it's doubtful he had much left to contribute in his career. He wasn't good enough in his peak to merit induction.
Don Newcombe: Another pitcher with a brilliant peak, Newcombe compiled a 149-90 record. He debuted at the age of 23, so I doubt you can give him much of an adjustment for the color line. Newcombe had a few good years, even winning the MVP in 1956. He doesn't rate among the top five pitchers of his era however, and his record received a huge boost from the offense that played for him (four Hall of Famers, plus Gil Hodges). 149 wins is way too few for a serious candidate unless he dominates like Sandy Koufax or Dizzy Dean.
Lefty O'Doul: O'Doul hit .373 over a four year period from 1929 until 1932. That is superficially impressive, but the average hitter in the Baker Bowl in that era hit nearly .320. Phillies hitters in the 1930s received a greater boost from their environment than hitters enjoy at Coors Field today. O'Doul only reached 10 seasons thanks to four fruitless years as a pitcher early in his career. As a player, he is undeserving. HOWEVER, many argue that O'Doul deserves a boost because of his role as an ambassador to baseball in Japan. If you believe Buck O'Neil deserves the Hall, than O'Doul could merit induction under the same criteria.
The Rundown. None this round. Jim Kaat and Joe Gordon last round.
SECOND ROUND
Boston 10
Nashville 2
Minnesota 3
LA Dodgers 2
The Twins scored two in the seventh to take the lead for good. Johan Santana allowed two runs and struck out eight in 7 1/3 innings pitched.
San Diego 9
Florida 2
Scott Olsen allowed seven runs (five earned) and walked five and threw two wild pitches in less than four innings of work.
Chi. Sox 3
NY Mets 2
Eight innings and two earned runs allowed for Mark Buehrle, while Bobby Jenks picked up the save. Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye hit home runs in the victory.
Kansas City 3
Arizona 2
Brian Bannister drove in his own go-ahead run with an RBI double in the 7th, and the Royals held on to win against Brandon Webb.
Chi. Cubs 6
Omaha 5
Atlanta 17
Texas 5
NY Yankees 6
Pittsburgh 2
Alex Rodriguez hit two home runs for the Yankees in the win. Melky Cabrera drove in three.
LA Angels 4
Tampa Bay 0
John Lackey pitched eight shutout innings, striking out nine.
Oakland 7
Milwaukee 4
Travis Buck broke a 4-4 tie in the ninth with a two-run home run.
Colorado 10
Baltimore 6
The O's bullpen imploded, allowing seven runs in the final two innings.
Washington 7
Detroit 3
San Francisco 12
Portland 2
Buffalo 5
Seattle 4
Ryan Mulhern's home run in the first inning gave the Bison a 3-0 lead. The Mariners fought back, bringing the tying run to third in the ninth, but Ichiro struck out to end the game. Ichiro did drive in three of the Mariners' four runs.
St. Louis 7
Toronto 1
Cleveland 2
Sacramento 0
Tony Oliva: Impressive career OPS+ of 131 over a 15 year career. Oliva made eight All-Star teams, finished sixth or higher in MVP votes four times, and won three batting titles. Oliva played his prime in an extremely tough offensive era. His peak is fairly impressive. However, Oliva does not rank in the top 100 of any offensive category except intentional walks. Only one of Oliva's ten most comparable players is in the Hall. That player, George Kelly, is considered one of the worst players in the Hall. As a right fielder, Oliva's totals just don't stack up.
Al Oliver: Oliver is an interesting Hall of Fame candidate. Oliver hit .303 over his career, made seven All-Star teams and enjoyed three top ten MVP finishes. He wasn't a great player at any point however. Looking over center fielders in the 1970s, Oliver ranks behind Fred Lynn, Bobby Murcer, Cesar Cedeno, Amos Otis and maybe Rick Monday. Oliver is indistinguishable from several of his era, not the mark of a Hall of Famer.
Vada Pinson: Like Oliver, Pinson accumulated great counting totals from being a good player for a long time. Pinson collected 2,757 career hits. Again however, there is little to support that Pinson was a great player. Pinson made just two All-Star games, and won just one Gold Glove, meaning his defensive capabilities can't carry him in. Pinson only finished in the Top ten of MVP balloting twice. His numbers do not merit induction.
Ron Santo: Off all players on the ballot, Santo is the one player who absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt deserves induction. At the time of his retirement, Santo ranked 5th among third basemen in hits, second in home runs, 3rd in OPS, and 2nd in RBIs. He also won five Gold Gloves. He was a dominant offensive/defensive player for five years.
Luis Tiant: Best known for his role on the 1975 Red Sox, Tiant compiled a 229-172 record over his career. His career record is similar to Catfish Hunter's. The difference is that Catfish won 20 games five years in a row and had a better peak. The problem with Tiant is that he only appeared in three All-Star games and never came close to the Cy Young award. Over the span of Tiant's career (1964-82), he ranks 31st in ERA and 10th in wins. There were many better pitchers in that era.
Joe Torre: Torre's a tough player to categorize. He played the most games at catcher, but only 40% of them. He split time at first and third base as well. He won a gold glove behind the plate, but was considered a poor defensive catcher. Torre played for nine All-Star teams and his 129 OPS+ would be excellent if you classified him as a catcher. Torre's a similar player in value to Gene Tenace, except that Torre played over 500 more games and won an MVP award. I'd vote for Torre. He's borderline, but he managed four championship clubs.
Cecil Travis: I wrote a piece on Cecil Travis a couple weeks ago. I don't remember if I published it, but the essential point is that Travis was a budding superstar whose career was cut short after he suffered frostbite fighting in the 2nd World War. Travis might have enjoyed a Hall of Fame career. When he left for war, he had a .331 career batting average. I'm not certain though. I don't feel comfortable voting for him, given that dozens of players were great early in their careers but lost Hall of Fame careers due to attrition.
Mickey Vernon: I don't see it. Unimpressive career totals, even accounting for a tough hitters' environment in Washington. Vernon won two batting titles and led the league in doubles three times, but he was not a dominant offensive force. He was the Mark Grace of his era.
Maury Wills: Lou Brock got the record, but Maury Wills revolutionized stealing bases in the 1960s. Wills stole 104 bases in 117 tries in 1962. Wills was an average hitter (for a shortstop) and a decent glove man. I don't think it's enough to get him into the Hall however. Wills wasn't any better than Jim Fregosi, a great player in his 20s but a non candidate. Wills was also considered a negative in regards to character.
Rundown: Santo and Torre alongside Joe Gordon and Jim Kaat from earlier rundowns. Four candidates from a group of 27.
Portland Sea Dogs @ Reading Phillies
When it comes to minor league baseball, no park can beat FirstEnergy Park in Reading for pure ambiance. There's talk of replacing the park with a new downtown stadia, which would be a huge mistake in my opinion. The corporate name belies the park really. The park is over 50 years old now. Recent renovations make the park comfortable but it retains an old-time feel unlike modern parks. The concessions have a carnival-like atmosphere. There are seemingly dozens of options from standard fare to Rita's Italian Ice (no gelatis though).
Everything about the game is enthusiastic. The staff know better than to jam every single sound effect into spare space like in other minor league parks. There are plenty of in-game promotions to keep the crowd entertained. The park contains a pool beyond right field and there is the standard party deck beyond left field.
Pricing is right. Parking is free but can be a hassle. Paved spots were gone an hour before gametime, leaving the grass beyond the brick wall in left field. It is easy to get to at least, straight down Route 61 off Route 222.
If you have the chance, this is a park you should take a trip to see at some point.
Roger Clemens is apparently coming to Scranton on Monday. I'm going to Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday's games instead. I don't need to deal with the traffic.
