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Phillies Pharm Report III

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EVIL~! alkeiper

Entry posted by EVIL~! alkeiper ·

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Last night I drove down to Reading for the Phillies/BaySox game, and I had an opportunity to watch Gio Gonzalez pitch. Sometimes the statistics don't tell you everything about the player. Other times they're dead on. Gonzalez is one of those pitchers who appear exactly as the stats would have you believe. Gonzalez has absolutely fantastic stuff. His control wavers however, as he's walked about 4.5 batters per nine innings. Even though he walked just one batter in his start, he started the game by working all three batters in the first inning to full counts. The control problems are probably the root cause of his home run rate as well. He'll work a batter to a 2-0 or 3-0 count, has to groove a fastball, and with Reading being a good hitters' park, the results are devistating.

 

Gonzalez is just 20 though, and there are few pitchers his age that are better. He's got plenty of time to progress, and if his control comes around he's going to be a good one.

 

Jeremy Slayden vs. Josh Kroeger

 

The Phillies' farm system is so devoid of hitting that any hitter with a pulse garners attention. Jeremy Slayden is such a case. Slayden was drafted out of college last season and is currently enjoying a fine season at Low A Lakewood, hitting .301/.370/.511. (This is the standard Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Pct. line.) Meanwhile, Josh Kroeger is having an awful season at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, hitting just .223/.262/.348. Kroeger is entirely off the radar at this point. Both are corner outfielders. Slayden has better raw stats, but it is MUCH easier to hit Low A pitching than to hit AAA pitching.

 

The catch is that both players are almost the same age. Slayden was born in July of 1982, and Kroeger in August of the same year. Slayden is actually older despite playing in a league three levels lower. We have a little tool handy called MLEs (Major League Equivalencies). MLEs take a player's current statistics and adjust them to a Major League context. Most minor leaguers look awful but that's ok. If they were good enough to be in the majors they would be in the majors (for the most part). This allows us to directly compare Kroeger and Slayden. They're the same age and they play the same position. Who's better?

 

MLES

Slayden: .206/.249/.350

Kroeger: .199/.232/.310

 

Slayden comes out ahead, even with the difference in levels. The point is however that we need to keep things in perspective. Slayden's having a nice year but he's 23 and a LONG way from the majors.

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the pinjockey

Given the lack of hitting prospects, would Cardenas already crack the top 3? I am struggling to see one outside of Bourn or Ruiz that I would put higher. If Golson keeps raking in Clearwater (.306/.368/.581), maybe, but there is enough bad there that one month of good isn't really making me excited.

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EVIL~! alkeiper

Given the lack of hitting prospects, would Cardenas already crack the top 3? I am struggling to see one outside of Bourn or Ruiz that I would put higher. If Golson keeps raking in Clearwater (.306/.368/.581), maybe, but there is enough bad there that one month of good isn't really making me excited.

I've been doing a lot of preparation for the Phillies' prospect list, but I'm holding off the final project until the end of the season on the basis that with a month left in the minors, why rush it out?

 

Cardenas is off to a great start, no doubt. But we're talking about 132 at bats in the Gulf Coast League, about as far away from the majors as you can get. So it's tricky. There's a few other draftees that might be worth a look, such as Jason Donald and D'Arby Myers. It is very difficult to evaluate any of them with never having seen them play and not having a scout's eye to begin with. Based on some numbers and my intuition, this is where I would rank the Phillies' HITTING prospects.

 

1. Michael Bourn, CF

2. Carlos Ruiz, C

3. Greg Golson, CF

4. CJ Henry, SS

5. Brad Harman, SS

6. Jason Jaramillo, C

7. Adrian Cardenas, SS

8. Brennan King, 3B

9. Jason Donald, SS

10. Hector Made, 2B

 

The short season guys like Michael Durant, Tim Kennelly, Lou Marson, etc. get the short end of the stick on this one. Carlos Ruiz has no more development room. He'll provide league average production and plus defense. But he's also a sure thing. Golson's recent hitting streak gives him some leeway. While Henry's struggled he at least hasn't flatlined. He's got a reasonably good batting eye. Harman's outhitting both Golson and Henry at the same age and is a good glove man. Jaramillo's good enough to reach the majors as a backup at least. Brennan King's probably a surprise. His MLE shows a slugging percentage of .427, and I figure he's got a tiny bit of room left to develop into a passable option. That's not much, but this is a weak crop.

 

On the pitching front, Gio Gonzalez will likely remain no. 1 assuming Scott Mathieson makes the decision easy by exceeding the rookie requirement for innings pitched. The big question is where to rank Kyle Drabek.

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