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Who Would You Take?

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EVIL~! alkeiper

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Who would you take to start a franchise? This is a popular question for baseball arguments. The idea is to choose not only the best player, but the player who will continue to produce in the future. Barry Bonds was a dominant hitter in 2004, but would you take him to start a team knowing he was 40 and a few years (we presume) from retirement? With that premise in mind, I sought to devise a list of the players who would answer that question throughout history. For example, if you were starting a team in 1965, who would be the first player you would want?

 

A few parameters. First, if I asked software what player produced the most post-1950, it would be Barry Bonds. This is unrealistic as Bonds would not debut until decades later. So I looked at statistics for ten years following the year in question. For 1950, I would look at statistics from 1950 to 1959. This provides a good result, limiting players who produced by hanging on. I drew up the leaders in Runs Created Above Position (RCAP). This is similar to Runs Created Above Average, except it looks at average production at the position instead of the league as a whole. This prevents the list from being dominated by simply the best hitters. Playing a premium defensive position helps. Keep in mind however that the system does not take defense into account. A player such as Ozzie Smith or Willie Mays might not get their just due. The Mantle vs. Mays arguments we could hear all day. You'll also note that this lacks pitchers. They might comprise a second list in the future. It is the best of what we have so far.

 

A note on war service. Several players, notably Ted Williams, missed time in the Majors due to military service. When evaluating them as players, it is proper to give them credit for time missed. In this project however, it counts against them. Baseball itself did not stop for war, and teams who lost players missed their services, creating a real impact on their overall success. Would you start a team with a player you knew would miss four years? Probably not.

 

Barry Bonds (1986-1997)

Wade Boggs (1980-83, 1985)

Rickey Henderson (1984)

George Brett (1979)

Mike Schmidt (1975-78)

Joe Morgan (1965-74)

Dick Allen (1964)

Hank Aaron (1962-63)

Frank Robinson (1960-61)

Willie Mays (1958-59)

Mickey Mantle (1950-57)

Stan Musial (1942-45, 1948-49)

Ted Williams (1937-41, 1946-47)

Mel Ott (1934-36)

Arky Vaughan (1933)

Jimmie Foxx (1932)

Lou Gehrig (1927-31)

Babe Ruth (1914-15, 1917-26)

Rogers Hornsby (1916)

Ty Cobb (1906-13)

Honus Wagner (1896-05)

Ed Delahanty (1892-95)

Billy Hamilton (1887-91)

Dan Brouthers (1880-86)

King Kelly (1877-79)

Fred Dunlap (1876)

 

Twenty-six players are on the list. Of those, 22 are enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Two are ineligible. That leaves out Dick Allen and Fred Dunlap. Allen missed half a career and was considered a clubhouse cancer. Fred Dunlap's presence surprised me. Looking at his career, his placement is explained by an excellent 1884 season. .412 batting average, 250 OPS+, 13 home runs, .621 slugging percentage. This is in a league where the total slugging percentage was .316! Therein lies the problem. The league in question is the Union Association. The UA lasted one season. Dunlap's OPS in the UA in 1884 was 1.069. He sandwiched that season between seasons in the National League, where he collected OPS's of .813 and .667 in the seasons before and after. When a player has a performance spike like that, you have to question its legitimacy.

 

1876-1885

 

RCAP RCAP

1 Fred Dunlap 272

2 King Kelly 234

3 Charley Jones 233

4 Pete Browning 232

5 Cap Anson 222

6 Dan Brouthers 205

7 Jim O'Rourke 203

8 George Gore 187

9 Roger Connor 186

10 Paul Hines 183

 

Of Dunlap's figure, 135 came from the 1884 season alone. I can not accept that. Given King Kelly's appeal as a gate attraction, he is probably the rightful holder of the title in 1876 as well, thr birth of the National League.

 

One other fun variation to note immediately. Babe Ruth holds the title from 1914-26 except for one year, 1916. You might note that 1916 is the one that would run until 1925. That was the season where Ruth missed serious time due to a mysterious stomach ailment and a suspension. Rogers Hornsby in 1925 hit .403 with 39 home runs and a .736 slugging percentage. Perfect conditions for a one year takeover.

 

Any player who held the honor for five or more years is probably in the discussion as one of the greatest players of all time. I will likely follow up on some of the other names on the list. Feel free to leave questions and/or feedback.

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