2007 NFL Power Rankings #1 (Training Camp)
Just checked out ESPN's power rankings (written on 17 May 2007). Every team, except for the 49ers and Cardinals, is within 5 spots of where they finished last year. They had 8 people get together to make these rankings. And they agreed that the NFL will play out almost exactly as it did last year. Steelers: 13th last year, 13th this year. Rams: 18th last year, 18th this year. Raiders: 32nd last year, 32nd this year. Atrocious. I will attempt a radical approach: I will look at what the teams have done during the offseason, what players have developed or dropped off, and against whom the teams will play this season. (Yes, the records will add up to 256-256.)
32. Kansas City Chiefs. Projected record: 3-13. I think Brodie Croyle will be decent. The problems are that the Chiefs' o-line will be among the worst (it was 17th last year when they had Will Shields) and their defense should be weak against both the run and pass (despite having some well-known players). Fantasy sleeper: Priest Holmes.
31. Buffalo Bills. Projected record: 3-13. They play against a lot of tough defenses this year, and the Bills' defense lost its best players (Nate Clements and London Fletcher). Fantasy sleeper: Paul Posluszny.
30. Houston Texans. Projected record: 4-12. The team didn't improve anywhere except at DT (with Amobi Okoye) and QB (Matt Schaub, who is not an elite QB). Ahman Green is an ok pickup as well. (He's about as good as Ron Dayne but much better than Wali Lundy.) Fantasy sleeper: Owen Daniels.
29. Atlanta Falcons. Projected record: 4-12. Joey Harrington to Joe Horn, baby. But Jerious Norwood is like Reggie Bush with better rushing skills. Fantasy sleeper: Joe Horn.
28. Tennessee Titans. Projected record: 5-11. The team is full of replacement-level players. But they have good coaches, and Vince Young and Keith Bulluck are studs. Fantasy sleeper: Brandon Jones.
27. Minnesota Vikings. Projected record: 5-11. There's almost no way for the rush defense to be as good as it was last year. Stephen Jackson proved in week 17 what a fraud it was. Near the end of the season, look for fans to throw Brad Childress off of the cliff where the I-35W bridge used to be. Fantasy sleeper: Sidney Rice.
26. Washington Redskins. Projected record: 6-10. They added LaRon Landry and London Fletcher. The 'Skins play a few easy teams, and so they should be a little better than last year. Fantasy sleeper: Jason Campbell.
25. Cleveland Browns. Projected record: 6-10. I would like to put them higher, but it's difficult to find teams that are worse, and they play in the toughest division in the NFL. Cleveland has a great CB combo in Leigh Bodden and Eric Wright. They added Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and (maybe) LeCharles Bentley to the o-line, which was among the very worst last year. They're going to pound Jamal Lewis and throw it to Kellen Winslow II. Fantasy sleeper: Jerome Harrison.
24. Miami Dolphins. Projected record: 6-10. Ted Ginn Jr.?? Ronnie Brown, Lorenzo Booker, and David Martin will catch a lot of balls. They got suckered on the Trent Green trade. They already had a better QB—Cleo F. Lemon. Fantasy sleeper: David Martin.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Projected record: 6-10. Easy schedule. Adding Jeff Garcia is a big deal (this year), because Chris Simms and Bruce Gradkowski played far below replacement-level last year. They added some much-needed o-linemen. Their defense added Cato June (who can't tackle well) and Gaines Adams (possible bust). But they have Sabby Piscitelli. Fantasy sleeper: Maurice Stovall.
22. New York Giants. Projected record: 6-10. Yes, Tiki Barber was good last year. Because his o-line was good. Brandon Jacobs is a BEHEMOTH!! Why 6-10 then? Because their defense will be awful. Fantasy sleeper: Steve Smith the Younger.
21. Dallas Cowboys. Projected record: 6-10. They play against some good defenses, and so the offense (Tony Romo, especially) should decline. Their pass defense will probably remain terrible. Fantasy sleeper: Patrick Crayton.
20. Oakland Raiders. Projected record: 6-10. I hope this ranking is higher than what all the other power rankings have. First, their pass defense is possibly the scariest in the league. It could be better than even Baltimore's, Jacksonville's, and Chicago's. Do you think coaching makes a difference? Gosh, I do. Last year they went into games with literally 3 running plays. Literally. Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter got murdered behind a line that wasn't coached to block properly. Josh McCown (the likely starter for now) is a fine replacement-level QB. They have a lot of good players on offense. Fantasy sleeper: Zach Miller and Michael Bush.
19. New York Jets. Projected record: 7-9. Last year was a fluke. They had a ridiculously easy schedule. This year it's pretty difficult. Both the offense and defense are slightly below average. Fantasy sleeper: David Harris.
18. San Francisco 49ers. Projected record: 7-9. I am projecting them to have the same record as last year, even though they are better this year. I know everyone loves (i.e., overrates) them. Nate Clements is one of the best CBs in the league, and Patrick Willis is a stud LB. But, the offensive side lost Norv Turner. I still expect Gore to be great, though. And Vernon Davis will be a freak. Darrell Jackson won't contribute much. Fantasy sleeper: Arnaz Battle.
17. Arizona Cardinals. Projected record: 8-8. They have a great young QB and two superstar WRs, and so they're going to run the ball 450 times. Brilliant! I have them going 8-8 because (a) they have the easiest schedule in the NFL and (b) I like their defense (Alan Branch, Karlos Dansby, Antrel Rolle, and Adrian Wilson). Fantasy sleeper: Leonard Pope.
16. Detroit Lions. Projected record: 8-8. Juggernaut offense. It was very good last year, and now defenses have to double cover Calvin Johnson. Who cares about RBs? They're there to catch passes too, until they get to the goal line, where big T.J. Duckett can pound it in. On defense, their front 7 is ok, but the secondary looks pretty bad without Dre' Bly. Fantasy sleeper: T.J. Duckett.
15. Seattle Seahawks. Projected record: 8-8. They were not good last year, even though they won a playoff game. Their o-line isn't that good aside from Walter Jones. But, the offense should be pretty good anyway. (I'm not drafting Shaun Alexander, though.) Their defense is still weak, particularly the secondary. Fantasy sleeper: D.J. Hackett.
14. St. Louis Rams. Projected record: 9-7. I love you, Rams. As usual, Marc Bulger (the 2nd best QB in the NFL) and Steven Jackson will be crazy, and the defense will be one of the worst in the league. (Adam Carriker should be pretty good, though.) Fantasy sleeper: Brian Leonard.
13. Green Bay Packers. Projected record: 9-7. Their pass defense is, secretly, really good. Either Vernand Morency or Brandon Jackson will be able to run behind that good o-line. Good team. Fantasy sleeper: Donald Lee.
12. Cincinnati Bengals. Projected record: 9-7. They finally have a little easier schedule. But their defense is really bad. Like, near the bottom against both rush and pass. Fantasy sleeper: Kenny Irons.
11. Philadelphia Eagles. Projected record: 10-6. I never have much to say about them, because they're pretty predictable. McNabb throws. Westbrook runs and catches. Top 10 pass defense, top 15 rush defense. Fantasy sleeper: Tony Hunt.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers. Projected record: 10-6. This switch to a wide-open passing system is going to be great. Their defense should be very good; although Mike Tomlin is making them switch to Tampa-2, he's a defensive genius. My man Lawrence Timmons is 'out with a groin.' It's a shame that they play against Jacksonville in week 15 (fantasy playoffs). Fantasy sleeper: Santonio Holmes.
9. Carolina Panthers. Projected record: 10-6. They had a bad o-coordinator last season. They will run DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams often, and Steve Smith will have a HUGE year. Their defense will be pretty good—probably top 10 in both categories. Fantasy sleeper: Jeff King.
8. New Orleans Saints. Projected record: 11-5. I don't see why the offense would regress. You can't 'figure out' Reggie Bush and Marques Colston. They are superior talents. Comparisons of Colston to Michael Clayton are absurd. Look for another big year from Drew Brees and Colston. I can't put them higher, though, because their defense is still pretty pathetic. (I still love Roman Harper, but he's still recovering from the ACL injury.) Fantasy sleeper: Eric Johnson.
7. Baltimore Ravens. Projected record: 11-5. They look pretty good. They lost Adalius Thomas and didn't replace Samari Rolle, but Willis McGahee should have a good season. Ben Grubbs was a good draft pick, and they still have Jonathan Ogden. They actually told Ed Reed they will bench him if he doesn't play within the scheme. Awesome! (I loved Reed until he started sucking.) Fantasy sleeper: Demetrius Williams.
6. Chicago Bears. Projected record: 12-4. They didn't lose Lance Briggs, and so they should still be the top defense in the NFC. The offense gains Devin Hester, Garrett Wolfe, and Greg Olsen. Fantasy sleeper: Adrian Peterson the Elder.
5. San Diego Chargers. Projected record: 11-5. First, let me say the following: if Michael Turner were in the 2008 NFL Draft, I would take him ahead of Darren McFadden. If LaDainian Tomlinson were put on I.R. in the preseason, I would select Michael Turner #1 overall in my draft. Now, are you ready for more of Tomlinson and Antonio Gates? They are way ahead of everyone else at their positions. Vincent Jackson is rather overrated this year in fantasy. 7th round is way too early. He's a good WR4 in round 10 if you stocked up on other positions. Anyway, the Chargers' defense is on the way down (although, along with Shawne Merriman and Jamal Williams, Antonio Cromartie is a stud). Last year was their chance at the Super Bowl. They would have OBLITERATED the Colts. But it was Peyton Manning's destiny to win. Fantasy sleeper: Michael Turner.
4. Denver Broncos. Projected record: 12-4. Their CBs are Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly!!! Travis Henry is a very good RB, too. Jay Cutler is a good QB. They keep loading up on d-linemen. They should be really good. Fantasy sleeper: D.J. Williams.
3. Indianapolis Colts. Projected record: 12-4. They made the offense better and the defense worse. Nice. Peyton Manning was the real MVP last season. (And I think Tomlinson is great.) Well, look for more fun, high-scoring games this year. Fantasy sleeper: DeDe Dorsey and Freddie Keiaho.
2. New England Patriots. Projected record: 13-3. Yes, they acquired WRs. They aren't unbeatable, they're just strong (top 10 or 15) in every area. Is their o-line good enough to win the championship? I'm not sure. They like to take away a team's #1 WR, and so a good #2 WR (like Reggie Wayne) gives them trouble. We've seen the Broncos and Dolphins own them. Fantasy sleeper: Sammy Morris.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars. Projected record: 13-3. Am I a crazy person? I don't think so. Rush defense: top 5. Pass defense: top 5. O-line: top 5. They have a new offensive coordinator, and he's a great choice for them. They realized that their WRs pretty much suck (at receiving, not blocking), and so they're going to focus on the RBs and TEs. Lord Byron Leftwich will have a better year, since he's not injured. They also drafted a punter in round 4 in order to fix that problem. If they don't make the playoffs again, fire Jack Del Rio immediately. Fantasy sleeper: Marcedes Lewis.
Playoffs?!
AFC
6. Chargers def. 3. Broncos
5. Colts def. 4. Ravens
1. Jaguars def. 6. Chargers
5. Colts def. 2. Patriots
1. Jaguars def. 5. Colts
NFC
3. Eagles def. 6. Packers
5. Panthers def. 4. Rams
5. Panthers def. 1. Bears
2. Saints def. 3. Eagles
5. Panthers def. 2. Saints
Super Bowl XLII
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - 13
CAROLINA PANTHERS - 7
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