2008 NFL Mock Draft #1B
I proved last year that I'm the best mock drafter in the world. Here's my post-Combine, pre-Free Agency mock. It will be wrong of course. There's not enough info out there yet. But it's a fun exercise.
This mock is what I think will actually happen, not what I think should happen.
Last updated on 27 Feb.
1. Miami Dolphins: DE Chris Long — Realistically, it's between Long and Sedrick Ellis. I think they'll go with the more talented and versatile player rather than try to force the need at DT.
2. St. Louis Rams: DT Sedrick Ellis — Evidently, the thinking within the Rams is that the o-line will return from injuries and be good again this year. They will likely take a DT and move Carriker back to DE. They like Dorsey, but I think they'll be concerned enough about injuries that they'll want to play it safe with Ellis, who may be a better DT than Dorsey anyway.
3. Atlanta Falcons: QB Matt Ryan — It's either him or McFadden. McFadden ran a 4.33. So what? We all knew he was fast. He's not the number one running back on every team's board. After the Michael Vick ordeal, how could they take a guy who might be the next Vick or Pacman? He's already the next Travis Henry.
4. Oakland Raiders: DT Glenn Dorsey — They are going to be rebuilding their o- and d-lines through the draft, and so I doubt they take McFadden. They were the worst run defense last season, and so they'd love Dorsey, despite the long-term tibia concerns. The only question is whether they want to let Jake Long fall to a division opponent.
5. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Jake Long — Perfect scenario for the Chiefs: they dropped to the lowest possible spot, but they still get the guy they'd pick with the overall #1 selection. Nothing to debate here. The only guy who made him look silly in college was...
6. New York Jets: DE Vernon Gholston — I've been noticing a few signs here and there that this guy is the one they're really targeting. They could certainly use a ferocious pass rusher. I think they'll do the Vilma-for-Rogers trade to fix their DT spot. Gholston had a great Combine. Also, they most certainly want to prevent the Patriots from taking him.
7. New England Patriots (via SF): OT Ryan Clady — I think the Patriots will take the best player on the board who's not named McFadden. Clady isn't far behind Jake Long. They could use a better OT than Nick Kaczur. They can find another CB to fit into their system later. If they did pick a CB here, I think it would be Leodis McKelvin.
8. Baltimore Ravens: OT Chris Williams — The Ravens will be extremely irritated by the Patriots' selection, because the Ravens are dedicated to rebuilding their offensive line now that Jonathan Ogden is all but done. They will not take Brian Brohm.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: RB Rashard Mendenhall — Remember when the Colts picked Edge over Ricky? It'll be like that moment. The Bengals cannot take another 'character issues' guy, but, with the top guys at DE and OT gone, they'll want a RB. Mendenhall is fast and powerful, but Kenny Watson can retain his 3rd down role for now.
10. New Orleans Saints: RB Darren McFadden — I think the Saints will sign Asante Samuel. Although they need a LB, they'll decide that the possibility of McFadden and Bush together is impossible to pass up. McAllister is heading out the door.
11. Buffalo Leelees: DT Kentwan Balmer — I'm guessing they'll get a big WR in free agency. Again, LB would be an upgrade over DiGiorgio (and Ellison), but I think they'd rather have a DT, and Balmer is good enough to take here.
12. Denver Broncos: LB Keith Rivers — First, I think they'll trade Javon Walker and sign a free agent WR. With Balmer gone (or a DT acquired in FA). they target LB, because they want DJ Williams outside. Rivers is more athletic than Dan Connor and has the ability to play inside.
13. Carolina Panthers: RB Jonathan Stewart — QB isn't an urgent need as long as Delhomme's rehab is on schedule. I think they are really disappointed that their running game wasn't better last season. They dumped Foster, but it doesn't mean that DeAngelo is going to get to be the workhorse. Stewart can start and knock some bodies around so that Williams can come in and hit some home runs.
14. Chicago Bears: OT Jeff Otah — Well, shit, all the OTs and RBs are gone already! Otah is a slight reach, especially now that he ran slowly at the Combine, but they need to rebuild the o-line immediately. And they know it.
15. Detroit Lions: CB Leodis McKelvin — All of the CBs are still on the board! And so they take McKelvin, who is the best CB overall and fills a big need. They'd like an OT, though. They'd rather have Chris Williams.
16. Arizona Cardinals: CB Mike Jenkins — Since the big three RBs are gone, they go with CB. It fills a need and is also the best player available.
17. Minnesota Vikings: DE Derrick Harvey — I've already written this one. This team's greatest need is a pass rusher. On defense, they ranked 2nd against the run, but 23rd against the pass.[1] Even worse, they were 28th in adjusted sack rate.[2] (Although, it was an improvement from being 31st in 2006.)[3] The Vikings' sack leaders (Kenechi Udezi, Ray Edwards, and SLB Ben Leber) each had only 5 sacks—good for a tie for 54th place in the NFL.[4] Udezi, who is the most talented DE on the team, has leukemia,[5] and so he is unlikely to play this season, if ever again. Harvey "should make an immediate impact rushing the passer."[6]
18. Houston Texans: CB Aqib Talib — They are looking at CB, OT, and RB. They have no CBs since Dunta is still injured. Talib is a very good CB and showed that he's good enough as a pure athlete. Again, with the CBs sliding because OTs and RBs went, this pick is easy.
19. Philadelphia Eagles: WR Malcolm Kelly — Here's a big #1 WR. Reggie Brown is a #2, and Kevin Curtis is a slot receiver. I don't know why I never have much to say about the Eagles.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Brian Brohm — Well, if he falls into their lap, they'd probably take him. They have Luke McCown backing up a 38-year-old QB.
21. Washington Redskins: DE Phillip Merling — They need a guy who can get pressure and sacks. He's a good pass rusher.
22. Dallas Cowboys (via CLE): RB Felix Jones — The other Arkansas RB replaces Julius Jones, even though he had a disappointing 40 time at the Combine.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: OG Branden Albert — They have to replace Alan Faneca, and Albert has been moving up the boards. They'll take whoever they can get to fix their o-line.
24. Tennessee Titans: WR Limas Sweed — WR is clearly the biggest need, and so they might as well pick someone who will work well with Young. The other WRs are fading, also.
25. Seattle Seahawks: RB Chris Johnson — The fastest guy at the Combine. They're happy that they didn't have to trade up to get him.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars: DT Pat Sims — Their run defense wasn't particularly good last season. I won't forget that season opener against the Titans. 282 rushing yards?!?! Sims is a big boy like the Jags want.
27. San Diego Chargers: CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie — I know I'm dreaming here, but can you imagine the awesomeness of DOUBLE CROMARTIES? I mean, why wouldn't they want to put Antonio on the #1 guy, and DRC on the slot receiver while readying him to be their #2 CB? Jammer and Florence are nothing special.
28. Dallas Cowboys: DE/OLB Quentin Groves — Very athletic guy who fits with the 3-4.
29. San Francisco 49ers (via IND): WR DeSean Jackson — Shaun Hill is good. He needs more than Gore and V. Davis around him. Since Davis is a big target, they can afford to have a tiny guy out there.
30. Green Bay Packers: CB Antoine Cason — Woodson and Harris are in their 30s. They could maybe take a LB or TE.
31. New England Patriots: You fucked up! You fucked up!
32. New York Giants: LB Dan Connor — I doubt he really lasts this long. The Giants would love to take him, even though they'd have to move him to OLB until Pierce moves on.
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