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2008 Bowl Bubble #2

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Aww the Congressional Bowl sold it's naming rights and is now the EagleBank Bowl. I'm shocked the St. Petersburg Bowl still hasn't sold theirs as that always seemed like a generic placeholder bowl name.

 

ACC

 

Bowl Tie-ins: BCS/Orange, Chick-Fil-A, Gator, Champs Sports, Music City, Meineke Car Care, Emerald, Humanitarian, EagleBank

 

Locks: Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, North Carolina

 

Bowl Eligible: Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

 

Bubble Teams: Clemson, Duke, N.C. State, Virginia

 

Everyone is technically still alive but highly unlikely Duke or N.C. State win their last two games. The winner of the Clemson/Virginia game this week will become bowl eligible while the loser will have to pull of an upset in a rivalry game the following week.

 

Notre Dame

 

Bowl Tie-ins: Cotton, Gator, Sun

 

Irish barely avoid disaster at the end of the Navy game to become bowl eligible. Should lock up a bid with an easy win against Syracuse this week which will have them on their way to the Gator or Sun Bowl. Upset USC the following week and they will end up in the Cotton Bowl.

 

Big East

 

Bowl Tie-ins: BCS, Gator/Sun, Meineke Car Care, International, Papajohns.com, St. Petersburg

 

Locks: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh

 

Bowl Eligible: South Florida, West Virginia

 

Bubble Teams: Louisville, Rutgers

 

As covered last week the Big East will lose a bid to Notre Dame if they finish 7-5 leaving the conference with five bids. Rutgers crushed a reeling USF team and can become bowl eligible with a win over Army this week which is quite the surprise considering how bad they played the first half of the year. With that in mind, there will be at least one team in this conference needing to find an open bid if they want to go bowling so it is very important to get seven wins.

 

Big Ten

 

Bowl Tie-ins: BCS/Rose (two bids?), Capital One, Outback, Alamo, Champs Sports, Insight, Motor City

 

Locks: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State

 

Bowl Eligible: Wisconsin

 

Bubble Teams: Illinois

 

The Big Ten's season is over after this week and if Penn State and Ohio State win, they are both on their way to BCS bowls. Illinois needs to win at Northwestern this week or otherwise the Motor City Bowl will become an open bid.

 

Big XII

 

Bowl Tie-ins: BCS/Fiesta (two bids), Cotton, Holiday, Gator/Sun, Alamo, Insight, Independence, Texas

 

Locks: Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech

 

Bubble Teams: Colorado

 

There is no scenario where this conference doesn't put two teams in the BCS so you can put them down for nine bids which also locks Kansas up for a bid even they still sit on six wins. With Kansas State and Texas A&M being eliminated from bowl consideration, the Texas Bowl is now an open bid and if Colorado doesn't win at Nebraska in two weeks then the Independence Bowl will also be an open bid.

 

Conference USA

 

Bowl Tie-ins: Liberty, GMAC, Texas, Armed Forces, New Orleans, St. Petersburg

 

Locks: Rice, Tulsa

 

Bowl Eligible: East Carolina, Houston

 

Bubble Teams: Marshall, Memphis, Southern Miss, UTEP

 

Only change was Houston became bowl eligible with a drubbing of Tulsa. Southern Miss scored a big win over East Carolina and now only has to beat an awful SMU team to become bowl eligible.

 

MAC

 

Bowl Tie-ins: Motor City, GMAC, International

 

Locks: None

 

Bowl Eligible: Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan

 

Bubble Teams: Akron, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois

 

The odds of Ball State getting into the BCS are now zilch as they were passed by BYU in the BCS standings. See last week's entry as to why there is a really small chance Ball State could not go bowling but it gets slimmer and slimmer with the the growing number of open bids there will be.

 

Mountain West

 

Bowl Tie-ins: BCS?, Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, New Mexico

 

Locks: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Utah

 

Bubble Teams: Colorado State, UNLV

 

There's a story out there that I don't think has received any attention yet and that is if BYU beats Utah this week, they and not Boise State could end up with the Fiesta Bowl invite. There's nothing in the BCS rules that requires the highest ranked non-BCS conference team to be taken, if there is another eligible non-BCS team who can be chosen. Boise getting passed over for a one loss non-BCS team could be a nice shitstorm. UNLV should become bowl eligible with a win over San Diego State this week while Colorado State will play at Wyoming with a chance to become bowl eligible as well. Popular belief is that the New Mexico Bowl would invite the Rebels over CSU.

 

Pac-10

 

Bowl Tie-ins: BCS/Rose (two bids?), Holiday, Sun, Emerald, Las Vegas, Hawaii, Poinsettia

 

Locks: Arizona, California, Oregon, Oregon State, USC

 

Bubble Teams: Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA

 

No changes this week as every favorite won. Stanford's season is on the line in the Big Game on Saturday and they will win. They just have to. ASU and UCLA are both idle before their elimination game in two weeks. Still seems likely that at least the Poinsettia Bowl will be an open bid which would go to a WAC team.

 

SEC

 

Bowl Tie-ins: BCS/Sugar (two bids), Capital One, Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A, Music City, Liberty, Independence, Papajohns.com

 

Locks: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

 

Bubble Teams: Arkansas, Auburn

 

Since the conference is pretty much assured to BCS bids at this point which pushes the conference to ten bids, every eligible team is now a lock including Vanderbilt will be going to their first bowl in 26 years. Both Arkansas and Auburn are longshots to become bowl eligible which would leave the Independence and the Papajohns.com Bowl as open bids. I'm sure the Independence Bowl is just giddy over the possibility of instead of having an SEC/Big XII match-up they may end up with a MAC/Sun Belt showdown.

 

Sun Belt

 

Bowl Tie-in: New Orleans

 

Locks: None

 

Bowl Eligible: Troy

 

Bubble Teams: Arkansas State, FIU, Florida Atlantic, UL Lafayette, Middle Tennessee

 

The winner of the ULL/Troy game this week all but clinches the conference title and the New Orleans Bowl bid. Because of contingency bids and other open bids this sad sack of conference could conceivably end up sending four teams to bowls when all is said and done.

 

WAC

 

Bowl Tie-ins: BCS?, Humanitarian, Hawaii, New Mexico

 

Locks: Boise State

 

Bowl Eligible: Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, San Jose State

 

Bubble Teams: Hawaii

 

As I already covered, Boise State's odds of landing a BCS bid could even longer than you think. Fresno, LA Tech, and Nevada all became bowl eligible this week but there is still way too many things that can happen to figure out who is going where and who is staying home. Again the Poinsettia Bowl will likely be added as a 4th bid for the conference, assuming the Pac-10 doesn't fill.

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Good job with these entries. BTW, I've always wondered how Notre Dame got away playing without a conference in football. Do you have any idea why this is so?

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The main reason Notre Dame can do just fine without being part of a conference is because of their television deal with NBC. As long as they have that in place it makes no sense for them financially to join a conference. If NBC ever decides to not renew the deal you'd see the Irish join the Big Ten in a hurry. Also as an independent when they make a bowl they don't have to share the payout with the rest of the conference and that become a huge boon for them when they make a BCS bowl with a payout of $14 million+ going to the school.

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Beyond the myriad of typos in this post, I have to make a correction regarding Clemson. I had forgotten that they played two I-AA teams this year and you can only count one of those games towards bowl eligibility thus they still need to beat South Carolina next week to become bowl eligible.

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