Recently I stumbled upon Baseball America's archive of its Top 100 prospect lists from their inception in 1990 until today. John Sickels has a regular feature on his blog chronicaling the paths of some of the top players in baseball. I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at some of the players once considered top prospects in the Phillies systems. There are some hits (Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, Scott Rolen), and some duds (Ryan Brannan). More interestingly, there are guys who went on to big careers who were not top prospects, like Mike Lieberthal. I figured I would start this with a player viewed as a top prospect who crashed. Tyler Green made Baseball America's Top Prospect List three times, yet failed miserably as an MLB player.

The Phils drafted Green tenth overall out of the 1991 Amateur Draft. Perhaps they were mesmerized by visions of Dallas Green. In any case, Green must have had good raw stuff. His initial numbers back his ability. Green debuted with three starts in Short-Season A Batavia, and followed with two in High A Clearwater. His numbers in those starts included a 3-0 record, 28 IP, 10 Hits, 0 HRs, 14 BBs and 39 Ks. The walks were high, but the strikeout numbers were outstanding. Based on his scouting report and that showing, Baseball America rated Green the 26th best prospect in baseball.

1992 saw Green fast-tracked to AA Reading. In 12 starts he dominated again, pitching 62.3 innings, 46 hits, 2 HRs, 20 BBs and 67 Ks, 1.88 ERA. Green was promoted to AAA Scranton but only made two starts, pitching 10.3 innings and walking twelve, posting a 6.10 ERA. After the season Baseball America rated Green the number 31 prospect in baseball.

Missed time combined with an abysmal record (particularly with a high walk rate) usually indicates an injury. Unfortunately I can not find direct information confirming it. One thing for certain though is that Green never pitched as well again. In 1993 Tyler spent most of the season at AAA Scranton. His K rate fell to 6.62 per nine. His 3.95 ERA netted him a trip to Philly however where he was shelled in three appearances.

After that season Baseball America demoted Green all the way to 36. Without the knowledge of DIPS, Green's performance looked decent enough on the surface. He fell to earth in 1994. Spending the entire year in AAA Scranton, Green struck out just 95 batters in 162 innings, walked 77, gave up 25 home runs, and posted a 5.56 ERA. (The minors stayed in business during the MLB strike.) Green fell off the Baseball America Prospect list. Undaunted, the Phillies called Green to their rotation to start the 1995 season. Green compiled an 8-9 record with a 5.31 ERA, again with poor peripherals. Injuries would again strike, costing Tyler the 1996 campaign.

Green returned to Scranton in 1997, delivering a 6.10 ERA in 12 starts. Looking over those numbers, the Phillies realized they had no choice but to promote him. Green finished the year in Philadelphia, posting a 4.93 ERA in 14 starts. Green then pitched all of 1998 with the Phillies, delivering a 5.03 ERA. Green never again pitched in the majors. He had one more awful year in Scranton (4-6, 7.69 ERA), and drew his release. AAA Buffalo picked him up the next year and received an 8.38 ERA in 29 innings for their troubles.

Looking over Green, we have a pitcher who ha obvious talent, but was derailed by injuries. Even the surest of pitching prospects walks this minefield, which is why some sabermetrically inclined prospect mavens are increasingly hesitant to name a pitcher as the top prospect in baseball. See Ryan Anderson for an example. Thanks to the Stats Inc. 2001 Minor League Handbook for the numbers. The Baseball Cube page is in error regarding some of Green's 1992/93 stats with Scranton.