Stephen Joseph

If likely voters was a stupid poll, then why do the news agencies use them? Seriously JOTW, I'll break it down like this, using my graduate degree superpowers. There's this thing called the CLT (Central Limit Theorem) which says that as long as our sample size reaches a critical mass and is relatively unbiased, adding observations will not change statistical outcomes. A survey of likely voters is both large enough and unbiased enough to qualify. That's why they use it. You will always have people entering the voting market. There will also be people exiting (umm, death?) I'm willing to bet that the influx of new voters is partially offset by the deaths in America in the last four years (and I'll also assumed that those who died are more likely Democrat). 1994 and 1996 were divisive elections, yet no one in the public realm seemed to accused the polls of inordinate sampling bias. Hell, with our confidence intervals surrounding the estimates, we really make ourselves certain. The general trend for participation in US Presidential elections has tended downward over time. As an economist, I would say people are more valuing that they spend their time doing something else besides voting. I really don't expect this trend to reverse. You can cry "But the Bush hatred!" all day, but its nothing other elections in our past haven't had. In short, a survey of likely voters is a damn good measure. If you care to challenge that, I suggest reading a book on statistics first. This has been your not-so-friendly-today-because-he's-pissed-off economist.

As Zack's world is being shattered and he no longer is paying other's attention, SJ walks by and give Zack a Main Event Noogie. You were expecting more?

Catches Zack in a FINALITY~! as he flies back from TPR's kick. Now that's INTEN5E teamwork baby!

SJ 'accidentally' hits Cappa with a steel chair Oops

i think bush is the first number?

thanks for the input hoff. ill see what i can do.

ditto And btw, ::cough:: economically speaking, a national sales tax discourages consumption and is likely to not help the economy as much as a simplified income or flat tax would. Course you all will disagree with me, but whatever.

Yeah welcome peoples if you new guys want a title shot, holler.

This thread has to be classics. Really, we should just post a Zell vs. Dean thing

I think people (guys) find Bonnie funny because she's hot. Honestly, she wasn't funny in LCS2

Every election people say "no negative politics" Every election the negatives keep coming...while people may say they don't like em, they're effective. EDIT: BTW, one reason Zell said all that is because after this term he's done in the Senate. His wife wants him home.

::dances::

There's a reason why us Georgia peeps love Zell Miller He speaks his mind. I wouldnt be ashamed of being a Southern Democrat

There's strategy Find the people who draw their popularity from the same crowd...put them up at the same time...votes split, one goes away

JOTW, we're on top of the world because we lead in INNOVATION. That's why large things get started here, we're the best at innovating...so why not be proud of that? You act like that's a bad thing... i.e. its our comparative advantage. EDIT: What Powerplay said. Our institutional arrangements have fostered the growth that has propelled America to the 'world leader' Whatever those American values are.

Ok John Kerry... He's an economist, so he's allowed to make vague pluralist statements exactly

I'd volunteer myself or cappa

Ok John Kerry... Don't insult me by calling me Kerry. I mean... DAMN KKK!

Exactly. Affairs mean nothing now. And well, we all wont be here prolly in 2008, but I'm willing to say Rudy's at least got the idea in his head. If he can pull NY for the repubs, he wins the election. Remember, NY is 31 E.V.'s that always go Democrat. If a Repub pulls them, thats a 62 EV diff. Considering the close elections...

The words liberal and conservative have been twisted with respect to the parties. They're BOTH liberal and BOTH conservative (i.e. they both want change in certain areas and want to keep things the same in others). It takes balls to be publicly ANYTHING. The easy way out is to be "Independent". Newsflash people. The democrats USED to be conservative and the Repubs were liberal...ever heard of the 16th amendment? And it was the democrats in both WW1 and WW2 who wanted increased military, not the republicans. The Republicans were reformists (prohibition anyone?) The parties are both and then are none. Saying one is better than the other reeks of very limited intelligence. You need BOTH sides of the spectrum to effectively create beneficial policy. You need to be both restrained and changing. And if you're going to judge the American political system against Europe's keep this in mind. Their economies are NOTHING compared to ours, our freedoms are much greater, and our political systems are more independent and more stable. While our governing system is imperfect, I fail to see anyone else who's doing it better. Because if they were we'd see evidence of people moving there, of jobs there, of an insanely good economy etc... And sadly, if you base your decision on the above, the fast rising nation of the last 15 years has been China.

::Sells the beltshot from CC, since she does in fact possess a belt:: owwww...

Actually Mike is kinda right there. While you can dismiss Rudy's influence outside of New York, as a candidate he'd stand a very likely shot to take New York's 31 electoral votes. That's a 62 vote switch from Democrat to Republican. Just the fact that Rudy COULD take New York ruins the Democratic power base of New York and California, and I suspect that no Democratic candidate would win the election if they did not win New York. Remember, the way population and electoral votes stack up, a Democratic candidate has to win the popular vote to win the Presidency. A Republican candidate does not have too

When I was in college at Georgia Tech... I worked for a power company doing contract admin (aka data entry) and worked at nights for the local pool hall. I graduated summa cum laude. It's all about picking a job that gives you time to study while you're there.

Run. For 9 bucks an hour? You don't have a degree, but it shouldn't be beyond you with your college experience to find something at least 10 bucks and near a desk of sorts ... unless you plan on making a career out of counseling girls. What you do now sets up your resume for the future, so plan accordingly.

Its not like Rudy's not got his eye on a certain house painted white in 2008.