Stephen Joseph

I can list historical example after historical example to back up my side of the story. Where's the families that are mired in poverty with sons and daughters with no access to education, supposedly masses because layoffs and outsourcing have occured for this whole century? Nope...Not there. Sure Tyler, we should help those who need it. But really, we cannot have our cake and eat it too. We cannot sustain growth thats off its natural rate for our country for a prolonged period of time. Eventually we must adjust.

As the election heats up, we're going to hear a lot about labor and environmental standards and how we need to level the playing field in trade. China remains a very poor country. It cannot afford the luxury of our standards of today any more than America could have afforded them 100 years ago when the average work week was 67 hours (down to 34 today) and the work place was a much more dangerous place. 67 to 34 hours a week? We make more money in real terms? Yeah, this economy sucks! We're sooo worried about outsourcing. Other countries have it too. Think China, with a per capita income of 960 dollars a year in real terms for this fiscal year, (US=36000), they're not as productive, not as efficient...THEY should be more afraid of outsourcing than we are. Oh wait...that's right. They come here to get educated, immigrate, and we get the "best and brighest" Sheesh people...

WTF. No, I'm not. I'm saying that we're responding to the market's inefficiencies (i.e. unused labor resources) by repeating "Outsourcing is good!" ten times fast instead of investing in job training and reallocating those stagnant resources. No. I'm saying that outsourcing IS a response and we shouldn't be getting our panties in a wad that its happening. Laissez Faire people! 99% of the time it works for the best outcome! And this isn't a crisis of the 1% of those time we need to institutionally intervene!

You're assuming that you know something the market doesn't know at the time. Markets clear given the rules, institutions, and other variables. Therefore, you're treating this as an abberation, a problem, like the Great Depression was. I'm merely stating that evidence exists to show that this isn't a problem at all, and that its just a minor correction before our next productivity boom. The Soviet Union tried to plan an economy. Failed China tried to plan an economy. They figured out it fails and adapted Let the market take care of itself. In cases of extreme distress, oh which this is not, intervention has a place. KKK-Im totally confused by your statement...Doesnt it support me? Rip-Companies are making sensible decisions. If you want to have a different system, look at what Japan's been through for 10 years with a system that has much more solidarity between workers and owners...Their economy is stagnant. As per education being unavailable to the poor masses... Using the Statistical Abstract for the United States (God Bless the Census) http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/02statab/educ.pdf More whites, black, and hispanics are enrolled in education since 1980 -black in particular up 5% -Education attained (college) has doubled since 1980. The rate of growth in black college edu attained is growing much faster than white Everything on real terms is up I can quote PCI figures as well...those are up in real terms too, for all groups, but in particular the poorer groups are growing at rates faster than the richer...they're catching up! Read the Stat Ab. This outsourcing is not haphazard. Companies are actively trying to stay competition in a growing globalized world, and they're still being profit maximizing. Outsourcing is perfectly rational given what these companies are going through. And there will always be entry-level positions in the US. But they CHANGE. They'd didnt use to be 9-5 desk jobs! The quality and pay of "low-paying: entry level jobs has increased dramatically since the 1950s Please, go look at the stat ab.

I'm beginning to think you have a crush on me Marney, giving me another compliment. =) *wink* And yes, after 200 years of people saying we're going to run out of something, and we haven't I can comfortably say that his ideas are dead. Just because something isn't here...today, doesn't mean it isn't on the cusp. No one in 1990 saw the Internet becoming what it is today. Back then, it was bunch of geeks on BBS's. I applaud your intelligence, fellow Govvie.

We've got nothing on the cutting edge? My friend, that is a malthusian vice. I can defend what's going on. Yes, we've "lost" jobs. Firstly, the economy was chugging along way above what we commonly thought was optimal performance. The 1990s was the first abberation of having less than 6% unemployment without significant inflation. If this is correct, that we were at a bubble, and that the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is actually somewhere between 5 and 6%, then what do we have to be worried about? If we're at NAIRU, we're doing good! Now then, about losing these jobs. Of course manufacturing workers won't become biomed technicians overnight. By outsourcing these jobs, we free up Capital, Labor, and other Investment for other purposes, purposes which have a higher return than investing in those jobs. Is this effect instanteous? Hell No. Keynes was right...in the sense that the economy comes off equilibrium in the short run. I've agreed with you Tyler, that it sucks to be those people and we should have some retraining or fall-back to give them an initial lift, but the long-term benefits? When we started NAFTA, what was on the cusp of new and emerging technology for manufacturing? Nada. And NAFTA was a good thing. When we started losing the auto industry, what did the newspapers say? They said there was nothing that these laid off people could do. In the 1970s during the oil crisis, America went into a panic over layoffs and what these assembly line workers would be doing now that their jobs went elsewhere. At every stage...America has emerged more economically healthy. Now, to succintly answer your point. Losing jobs is not necessarily a bad thing. If the economy is out of equilibruim, either running ahead of itself (inflationary pressure) or behind itself (employment pressure), it must adjust. Outsourcing some jobs, is just an adjustment mechanism...the economy as a whole is fine...we were simply pushing the envelope of our production possibilities. We couldn't maintain a 3% unemployment rate forever, and the economy has backed off. mpL went down and Capital became more attractive as the labor force grew. Firms have been adjusting to the relatively higher returns to capital investment rather than highering more workers...remember wage rate/Marginal Product of Labor = rental rate of capital/MP Capital in long run equilibrium We're adjusting to that... I think I'm answering your charge Tyler, by saying that having our economy adjust like this is not a bad thing, a crisis, or an economic problem.

Eh, Today I read in the news that theyre back to saying outsourcing is good over the long haul. See...Here's why I hate politics In the long run, outsourcing benefits everyone to an extent. In the short run, a small group (relative to total population) gets hurt alot. Who's got more incentive to lobby...the guy who lost his 50K job or me, who stands to gain 300 in salary in 2 years because the US gets stronger... Yeah, and that's why protectionists always get support...I shudder to think of how much potential income and output we've lost through individually rational, but economically irrational protectionist measures in our history. Someone actually did a study once...a counterfactual model. US Per Capita Income would be 10K higher across the board. 10K. That's like a car a year for each household...

All my statements are based on people in general, not specific types...economic research counts all costs and benefits theyre much wiser than me

You'd think with all their weapons that there'd be less zombies to deal with there too and they could handle it

Umm...guys? I love the debate but chill on the rectangular quotes from hell

Look out, M.C. Poppick is in the house See? That's funny, because I didnt even realized they rhymed And CWM...I updated the site but didnt change the projects page yet...I was just happy to get my resume finally updated and out Doesn't look too crappy does it? Besides, would you believe listing my involvement in this site has gotten me two web development projects in the last month? Decent money on the side yo.

Unemployment is great thing for helping people in transition...the system's still flawed though. Rip, sorry if I was too combative. I'm fiercely loyal to economic thought, which is why I hate both parties as they warp it. If you concentrate on anything , focus in on the wage disparity issue...An Indian worker doesn't replace an American worker on a 1 to 1 ratio because of productivity issues. And if I come across as insensitive, I'm not. It sucks for those displaced, I'm just looking at the whole forest and over the long-run. By promoting free trade the government does make everyone better off, but it can (and this should be done locally, not nationally) help those who become displaced...and unemployment for transitional/displacement along with job retraining programs are good. The Education argument you mention affects the US economy by helping people participate in it...and at the margin some groups could be locked out in the long run. However, the government is not the end-solution to this problem. I'm not really concerned about education given the recent uptick in the reported figures coming out. Its solving itself laissez-faire style, and even with the educational problems of the last 30 years things have sorted themselves out nicely. If you took US Per Capita Income in 1900 and applied that with the purchasing power it hadm, the US would be a middle of the road country like several European countries in terms of economic significance. Hows that for an interesting figure? America 100 years ago had workers better off than half the world today does

EDIT: Just wanted to reiterate that if you account for Labor Productivity along with the nominal wage, you get a fairly even wage across all counties. For instance, a programmer in the US makes 32000 (figure I pulled from corp data) while a programmer in India makes between 6000-8000. However, estimates have been taken which say a US worker is around 4-5% more productive than an Indian worker. so if I say 100 as a base and set that as Indian productivity,then US worker is 400-500 3200/400=8000 3200/500=6400 No wage disparity *Figures from US Census Bureau and National Bureau of Economic Research

AoO says: Neat. The only part I take much issue with is the removal of the low-end jobs. It wouldn't seem prudent to me to ship the vast majority of the warehouses, factories, etc overseas. America is still a monster of production, and although my economics education spanned a wild nine weeks about 4 years ago, it still seems right to me that making and selling our own goods to the market abroad is what keeps us ticking at the core. Resources have to play a huge role here, too, don't they? -Okay. Let me try and dissect this. We don’t want low-end jobs, unless they’re necessary. We’ll always have a need for some. But over time we’ve seen America move up from factory workers to middle managers. In this modern economy, what we ship is mainly service, which has been said before I think. Resources are abundant and plenty, and I don’t think you’ll see America outsource its whole manufacturing economy…its cheaper to produce some things here (think transportation costs) Cement is locally produced and sold, there’s one example. But America’s future doesn’t like in producing stuff, its comparative and absolute advantage lies in the ability to create stuff. It takes a country with a lot of investment, capital, and high mpL to innovate, because products that are innovated cost more to build initially until “learning” occurs and the costs of production are lowered due to new techniques, materials, and general trial and error. Generally speaking, the US thinks up these products, starts producing them, then as the costs of production are lower, other countries begin to produce them, the production is outsourced, and we begin again with something else. Ripper, Sup my Atlanta friend. Let’s do this. Stephen, in Atlanta alone in the next 3 months 1000 jobs are going to be lost all in one field, call centers and customer service. Hewlett Packard, Bellsouth, AT&T...they are all sending their service centers overseas. Not because it will give the customers better service(and anyone that has tried to call a Helpdesk lately knows that) but simply because they can pay people criminally low wages in other countries. -Okay, firstly you’re making a fallacious argument that the wages are criminally low. Wages reflect the Marginal Productivity of Labor. If you correct the wage an Indian worker receives by his mpL and the Wage an America worker receives, you’ll see the ratio (American Wage/American MPL) will be very close to the ration (Indian Wage/Indian MPL). Wage disparity exists ONLY in nominal terms. Both the Indian worker and American worker are equally paid if you consider their MPL -My fiancée used to work HelpDesk before she began a systems analyst. I know what’s happening in Atlanta. I understand how outsourcing is suppose to work. I understand how it works in the manufacturing field, and while this HAS been the hardest hit field, jobs such as the ones above are fast becoming the hardest hit. -It’s a transition. In the past, the outsourcing has been the gradual change to the next step. Of course horse carrige makers took a hit when the car was evented. We moved on to the next technological advancement. WHAT advancement is being made that justifies the lost of these customer service jobs? -Wrong. There was no gradual change from the carriage to the car. That sector was hit hard. What advancement justifies the loss? The internet has made costs of producing call centers cheaply. What it will do is free up labor for things that American labor is more Marginally Productive for, raising wages in the future. Most economists would tell you this argument doesn’t hold much water In the past few months, telemarketing and now call center/customer service jobs are taking a huge loss, and I could give a shit about how it impacts the overall economy. We are talking about tens of thousands of people with NO income and no new jobs on the horizon. What are these people suppose to do? Where are their expertise supposed to be used. -Should we have kept American farmers on traditional farming? Kept the carriage makers? Kept manufacturing? I’d assume you’d say it was a good thing we advanced from those. Same with these. Outsourcing has always happened, and thats all fine and good, but it is happening at greater numbers now and the government is pushing it harder at the expence of the American people. -It’s not happening in greater numbers. Outsourcing is a fancy word for relocation, and that’s been going on since the 50s. Overall, trend in US employment, total jobs, and PCI is WAY UP. -Did you know that before the 1990s boom, everyone thought 6% unemployment was the natural rate of unemployment and that was considered very low? You must consider that if you fight unemployment with aggressive policies you raise inflation (Phillips cure). Technological innovation allowed for this relationship to change, pulling the US down to 3% unemployment without inflation. Maybe the natural rate changed, maybe it hasn’t and that’s why the economy isn’t recovering….we were performing well above average, and well, we’ve got to average being average. That is all fine and well in theory. Of course this theory is dependant upon every American getting the opportunity to get the EXACT same education, and the EXACT same chances. This theory is just another that greatly benifits the priviedged and screws over the lower class. This theory is dependant on alot of things such as education reform and the like that are simply not happening. And are we suggesting that call center workers are out innovating new jobs now? -Wrong. The theory isn’t dependent on educational opportunity. Besides, what lack of educational opportunity are we referring to? No nation in the world is as open to educational opportunities pre and post and continuing than America is, that’s why our human capital stock has risen so damn much and why we garner wages wayyy higher than most every other country. So unless we all moved to happy bullshit land where Mike aparently lives where people can just work 80+ hours a week for half of their normal pay and still have a chance to find better work, because unemployment is evil, this is doing more harm than the eventual good believed it will do, IMO. -Unemployment is not evil. There will always be a part of the economy being retrained. There will always be people switching between jobs. Specify the type of unemployment you’re talking about. Let’s talk about France. There’s evil unemployment? Why is it evil? Because their system gives incentives for workers to remain out of the work force, and by staying out of the workforce and NOT having the churn we have reduces their labor force’s human capital and a hysterisis effect sets in, they lose skills and become permanently unemployed. Read up on the NAIRU, Samuel Becker’s human capital model, and a history of unemployment from the census bureau. Things are not bad.

you like yams?

AngelSlayer- Your reply had wit. AoO - Same old shit.

True. And I stopped doing that what? two years ago, to the point of joking at myself over it? It still hasn't been let go...

To Rip, You're acting like this lack of job growth is a permanent phenomenon. It isn't There exists an idea "technological lag". It deals with network costs and how big a network needs to be before certain externality benefits are realized. With every new tech leap, there's been a boom, bust, and then steady and prolonged boom. Happened with agri, manu, high industry, tech, and right now we just went through the bust phase of the internet. Because we've been learning how to use this new capital, productivity has been rising without the inputs of new labor. Economics dictates that this trend will change and labor inputs will be added once the mpL/mpK ratio with respect to w/v equalizes and we return to a long run steady growth state. We're so prosperous, we in this country view this bump as something terrible. Business cycles happen, and there's very little a government can do to keep a business cycle on the uptick forever. Our recessions are mild, like a pinprick, compared to the recessions and depressions when the US was primarily manufacting and agri. The cycle's been smoothed a bit. We're better off without these call centers and other low-skill, low-pay, highly automatiable jobs. If the US focuses on what it does best (innovate), then a long run perspective will see it always developing the best jobs and sending the worst (pay, work environment) to someone else who's running behind. I find it VERY laughable that in this day an age, people blame the President for economic woes. Fiscal policy stimulus has been dead for a long time people, since Keynes rolled over about 3 times in his grave. There's too much lag and diffusion for these spending policies to work, because in the end we all KNOW we're going to have to pay it back through higher taxes. Since the market became global, we have very little control over how our economy acts...when Asia fell, we fell...Europe falls, we falls. It's so interconnected right now the people we hold accountable aren't I also echo Marney's sentiments on the drugs issue. EDITS: The Jungle. Great book. Filled with lies. A National Enquirer look at the meat processing plants. At least, thats what the last 50 years of research into it by historians and sociologists say. Is protectionism good? There's only been one argument for protectionism that held water at some point, infant industry. As of today, no economist worth his salt will buy that argument. Governments can mandate certain sectors be subsidized due to other concerns (im mainly thinking defense here) but on economic grounds, there's no case. Free trade hurts some as it displaces, but no country that made itself more open to free trade has been economically hurt. We had an argument that the wages amongst these countries is wrong. It isn't. I refer to the Solow Growth model here. Check it out...conditional convergence...evidence exists that countries converge based around their savings rates...over time a poor country with low savings will catch up to rich country with low savings...if theyre in an open economy. Head over to MarginalRevolution.com Learn something

You know, hearing the same jokes repeated for about the 50th time, by the same rotating cast of 5 people...its pretty sad man. Time to move on holmes... And yes TT, you should be glad even though I didn't dump a whole lot of cash. Good intentions lead to bad results sometimes

Tech has also had some REAL questionable losses in the regular season (Georgia) that shows a possible lack of consistency. -=Mike It's called a young team. I believe there's... one senior? The season's performance doesn't matter once you're in the tourney. You win, and play on. Was Tech under-rated? No. They deserved a three seed and got it. They also were picked as the dark horse. Has Tech picked off the best teams? Yes Have they had an easy road to the FF? No, I'd hardly call Boston College and Kansas as pushover. Have they shown something? They lost best player (Elder, 19 points per game) for the entire weekend, and showed the depth their bench had. If anything, they're more dangerous because of the stepped up game Jack and Schren showed. I really don't like the billing of this weekend as Duke/UConn as the national championship. As far as I see it, Tech's beaten them both away, and Okla had a legitimate claim to a number 1 seed, and was just edged out by St. Joe's. It seems like every march there's a UConn or Duke bandwagon. Bets are hedged because people expect for them to win, so everyone rooting for them cheers They're going to beat themselves up, and UConn is the stronger of the two. But the real challenge will be the winner of the GT/Ok game. Both have got something big to prove. I wouldn't underestimate hunger in the face of cockiness.

Free Trade = good Protectionism = bad Haven't we learned anything in 200 years of studying economics? We stopped being an agri nation... workers were displaced we made cars stopped being a manu nation workers were displaced we made computers shipped that to japan we invented the internet used that to ship stuff out workers were displaced... and yet at EVERY step this country has gotten wealthier and much better off. We're all so freaking spoiled and now we whine about high prices and the plight of the american farmer (who doesn't exist!) 200 years of economics says free trade is a good thing. Unless you feel like arguing about 15 guys who got a Nobel and pissing on the grave of David Ricardo...there is no way this is a bad thing. Trump the economic argument with anything. It can't be done. No matter how much you put into the hardships and emotional trauma placed on those displaced, the entire society is getting better off at every single level. Our poor are rich compared to other nation's rich. I hate the election year with catchphrases and mindless rhetoric

Well, sorry if it didn't make sense, but that was the idea. Besides, if you truly want to take it somewhere, a trilogy ends things and now oaoast starts again. Anglemania has always been a jumping off point and its where the oaoast year ends and begins... eh, some guys liked it,

AP, I meant it more in the Star Wars Trilogy...it came in three parts. Things come in three etc... I hope there's another trilogy for you all to come, but it seemed a nice way to bundle this one with the other two.

Hmmmph, it seems no one is willing to give GaTech some credit here... Winning without their best player? Stepping up? Already holding wins against U-Conn (neutral court) and Duke (Duke Court) My friends, as a Techie alum I never expected for them to go this far, but at the onset they were picked as the dark horse. You cannot count tech out the way they're coming alive as this tourney progresses It would be SWEET poetic just if Tech and UConn meet in the finale, just so Ed Nelson can SIT on that UConn bench and watch his former team beat his new team...

Okay! I hope everyone reads this. I just noticed the SJ/Dan match wasn't posted EITHER, and I remember writing that match yesterday and submitting it...I was on a cruddy computer in the GMU-Arlington Library, and the other matches that aren't in I added on that same day. So... FUCK! Your matches were put in, and I thought the problems I was having with the internet still allowed the matches to go through. It didn't and I am sooo sorry for it. Way to fuck up the greatest show we have due to a fucked up computer. Crap...Sorry Dan...We'll have to redo the Glass House match on replay because I do not have a copy of the match, it was on that computer in the library. <--bitterly upset