teke184

He picked up some tiny state. Kerry is very much not looking good. -=Mike He had 195 by my earlier count... I was wondering how they could get 193 instead of 195 (with Montana) or 192 (without Montana).

193 Electoral Votes?!? Did Bush pick up one of Maine's Congressional Districts?

New Haaaaampshah is back to 50-50 between Bush and Kerry. AFAIK, Kerry's lead there all night.

Republicans don't answer meaningless exit polls. Apparently, "Fuck off, you scum sucking asshole" isn't an answer on their pre-done lists...

Montana called for Bush. Totals are now 195-112. Bush needs to pick up roughly 75 more Electoral Votes to win and may be able to do that without the Big Four.

Missouri and Arkansas called for Bush by Fox News.

I live just outside of D.C. and work in the city. Did you know that in the city council elections today, former mayor Marion Barry - you know, the one who got caught smoking crack in a hotel room with a whore - won big? D.C. is ridiculously wacky. I totally understand why Congress is hesitant to ever give them representation - they're probably terrified that Barry will run for Congress..... My favorite Chris Rock quote ever has to be "Did you hear Marion Barry got re-elected in DC? The man smoked crack and got his job back. You smoke crack at *MCDONALDS* and you ain't getting your job back..."

With 99% of precincts reporting in Kentucky, Jim Bunning is almost assuredly re-elected. He holds a 19,000 vote lead that his opponent will NOT make up between absentee ballots and those last few precincts.

Since when do the Republicans have 9% in DC? I thought it would be closer to 5%...

Bush is up to 181 Electoral Votes now that Utah and Arkansas have been called. If he picks up 89 more Electoral Votes, he wins decisively. If he picks up 88, he'll win when it gets thrown to Congress.

Not really... Missouri is ALWAYS close, partially because St. Louis has stolen the title of "Voting fraud capital of the Midwest" away from Chicago.

Jim Demint was declared the winner in the SC Senate race over Inez Tennenbaum. That's another pickup for the Republicans, as that seat belonged to Fritz Holling (D, SC) before he retired this year.

It depends how things fall... If Bush picks up Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico and another state such as New Hampshire, Hawaii, Oregon, or Washington, he wins before all the votes are counted in the Big Four. There's also the chance of a big bump for Bush in a close Kerry state like New Jersey or New York that will see the projected Kerry win overturned.

I'm wondering what precincts are reporting in there... What I *DO* know is that if Thune has a slim lead when the Native American vote comes in, Thune will come out behind and we'll have lawsuits flying everywhere. That's what happened to Thune two years ago and he held off on suing then because he set his sights on Daschle.

Badnarik is likely to perform better than Nader for a few reasons: 1. Nader has been removed from the ballot in several states 2. Nader has a Democratic backlash from people blaming him for Gore's loss in 2000 3. Badnarik is likely to pick up votes in Republican states that are safely going for Bush. Don't be surprised if Badnarik gets twice as many votes as Nader.

Bunning is now up by 12,000 with 9% remaining. Barring a late break by Mongiardo, Bunning will retain his Senate seat.

I know, but right now he is holding steady at 55%. It depends which parishes those votes are coming from... East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Jefferson, Livingston, Ascenscion, Assumption, etc. are all pretty Republican, as those are where the white people from Baton Rouge and New Orleans live. Vitter's Congressional district was in Jefferson Parish, so he'd do well there no matter what. John's Congressional district is in the Acadiana area (Cameron, St. Landry, Acadia, etc.) so he'll do well there. Kennedy doesn't have a true base, so his support will be patched together from all over the state.

Tradition... Red = Republican Blue = Democrat.

With 1% reporting?!?!? God damn, calling early aren't they? Mississippi is up to 10%... As for Louisiana, Kerry gave up there a LONG time ago and the initial numbers (and, apparently, exit polling) show Bush up 60-40 or higher.

I still don't fully understand this. People keep mentioning exit polls, and how they could be inaccurate. Can someone explain that to me? Exit polling's accuracy is questionable for a few reasons: 1. Location of precincts chosen- Urban precincts are more likely to break for Dems than suburban or rural precincts 2. Cherry-picking of precincts- Are they picking heavily Dem or Republican precincts or are they picking middle-of-the-road ones? 3. Absentee balloting- The polling only counts walk-up voters, NOT absentee voters. 4. Early voting- Exit polling tends to cover only ELECTION DAY voting and not early voting.

Depends if Vitter hits 50%... which I think is likely. Most polls had Vitter at 43-46%, Kennedy and John at 15% each, and about 20% undecided. If enough of those Undecided voters either break for Vitter or don't vote at all, he wins. If not, Vitter will be in a runoff next month against, most likely, Chris John. (John Kennedy doesn't have a hope in hell, as he was clueless as the head of the LA Department Of Revenue and only won as Treasurer because the incumbent, Ken Duncan, got caught with his hand in the till)

I'd say that Bush's percentage will stay fairly constant until they hit California. Cali will probably tilt the popular vote 1-2% back in Kerry's favor barring something unexpected.

Bunning has now opened up a 2000 vote lead with 13% of the precincts remaining.

As of the latest numbers, Jim Bunning is down 4000 votes out of 1.4 million cast with 85% of precincts reporting. He had been down several percent earlier tonight.

After 2000, NO ONE will call one of these huge states like Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania until all votes are counted because of the impact it has if they're wrong. We'll probably get results from Hawaii before they call any of those three.