Yet the flashback summary of events made me seem like such a dumbass for not seeing it coming.
To recap the goat scenario, Ted Saget said in season 1 it happened on his 30th birthday. Once he turned 30 in season 3, at the very end of the episode he realized the goat was his 31st birthday (so later this season... except everything he told about the goat was supposed to be correct, just not coherent with it being his 30th birthday.).