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Also, just FTR, here's a list of contending teams who have a worse SOS than USC this year: Texas Tech Alabama Oklahoma Penn State Oklahoma State Everyone always hammers the Washington/Washington State thing, but they ignore that it evens out for the fact that USC's non-conference schedule is: Virginia, Ohio State, Notre Dame. Cal and Arizona are both really solid Pac-Ten teams that USC has beaten and the Ohio State win shouldn't be swept under the rug either. That's just as good of a top win as beating TCU (Oklahoma's best win) or beating Georgia (the best win for the SEC contenders).

FWIW, these would be the matchups under my proposed playoff system if the season ended today assuming that Utah passes Penn State in the BCS and TTU doesn't pass Bama: Boise State at 1) Alabama Texas at 4) Utah Penn State at 2) Texas Tech Florida at 3) USC Seems pretty fair to me. And considering that Oklahoma would still be able to win their way in, it makes sure that everyone who deserves a shot gets one.

It's head-to-head, but Oregon State's got a pretty brutal finishing kick. If I were to guess lines for the rest of their games, I'd say something like: vs. California -3.5 at Arizona +2.5 vs. Oregon -5.5 The odds they make it through the whole thing without another loss are probably only around 15%.

I think it's pretty safe to say that Ole Miss game was a huge fluke. Here are Florida's results since then: @ Arkansas W 38-7 LSU W 51-21 Kentucky W 63-5 Georgia W 49-10 @ Vanderbilt W 42-14 In 5 SEC games including two against Top 20 teams, the closest game was a 28 point win. That's insane.

Yeah, the eventual SEC champ picking up another loss is probably the only chance USC has at this point. I don't see any way that Texas Tech, OU, and Texas all pick up losses at this point. Here's my Top 25 BTW. Finally moved the Gators ahead of USC with the Trojans letting Cal stay alive into the 4th quarter at home and the Gators destroying yet another decent team. It's not as bad as Texas's secondary, but I think USC's offense is definitely a weakness. 1. Texas Tech 10-0 (2) 2. Alabama 10-0 (3) 3. Florida 8-1 (5) 4. USC 8-1 (4) 5. Texas 9-1 (6) 6. Oklahoma 9-1 (7) 7. Penn State 9-1 (1) 8. Boise State 9-0 (10) 9. Ohio State 8-2 (11) 10. Utah 10-0 (12) 11. Oklahoma State 8-2 (8) 12. Missouri 8-2 (13) 13. TCU 9-2 (9) 14. Georgia 8-2 (15) 15. North Carolina 7-2 (17) 16. Ball State 9-0 (18) 17. California 6-3 (14) 18. Michigan State 9-2 (19) 19. Arizona 6-3 (20) 20. Florida State 7-2 (21) 21. Oregon State 6-3 (25) 22. LSU 6-3 (23) 23. BYU 9-1 (22) 24. Iowa 6-4 (NR) 25. Pittsburgh 7-2 (NR)

Really bad week for me. Neither one of my upset picks were even close. Now, I'm not only going to have to win out to have a shot at the Bored Bowl, I'll probably have to be within a point of the top point total both weeks too. (My chances of making the conference title game look pretty slim.)

I hate my local channels so much. First off, they play the local FCS game on CBS instead of LSU/Alabama, and then when it's over, they decide they're far enough in that there's no point showing overtime and go straight to Wheel of Fortune instead. Give me a fucking break.

FWIW, not allowing computers to consider margin of victory is probably the single dumbest thing that the BCS has done in their existence. You only have 12 to 13 data points to compare the teams anyway, and now you're asking the computers to throw most of that data out the window and only look at it in the simplest manner possible? Saying the voters shouldn't consider it is even dumber. I mean if that was the case, people should probably have voted Virginia Tech over LSU last year. After all, they had better losses than the Tigers did. The computers voted them #1 after the regular season without looking at margin of victory. Just think, then we would have had a thrilling LSU/Hawaii Sugar Bowl, and Ohio State could have been the national champions after they beat the Hokies. And yes, Utah's got a tougher schedule than Hawaii did last year, but the number of fluky wins where they just barely snuck by against mediocre teams is so similar that it's downright eerie.

FYP. Is no one getting my point here? The point is that regardless of their resume, the Utes aren't very good. Put them up against Florida in the MNC, and they'll be a 21-point underdog. Is that what we really want to see? 2004 Utah, 2006 Boise State, even 2008 Boise State to an extent. Those are all teams that are capable of playing with the big boys. Utah's a team that got their tougher games at home and managed to luckbox through, much like Hawaii last year. Also, if Utah does get their shot and get destroyed, it's going to make it that much harder for another mid-major to get recognition any time soon.

I'm kinda torn about seeing Utah still in the national title hunt. On the one hand, I think it's great for a mid-major team to be able to get their shot, and in principle, I think 12-0 Utah deserves to get in over say 11-1 Penn State, but the Utes really just aren't that good. They almost lost to Michigan, and then they need verifiable miracles against both Oregon State and TCU at home. They're not even as good as Boise State this year, let alone the Boise team that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

If you're looking at real quality wins, Oklahoma, USC, and Florida, all have the same number: one. USC blew out a Top 15 team in Ohio State, Florida blew out a Top 15 team in Georgia, and Oklahoma blew out a Top 15 team in TCU. The next best win actually belongs to USC as they beat a very good Arizona team on the road that should be ranked #12 according to Sagarin predictor. Florida's still getting credit for beating LSU at home, but the Tigers are absolute garbage this year. They're 1-2 vs. teams with a pulse and are still getting credit for their national title win last year with completely different players. I'd take Cal or Arizona over LSU in a heartbeat on a neutral field. Also, the fact that the bottom of the Pac-Ten is really weak this year is completely cancelled out by the fact that USC doesn't play any cupcakes at all in non-conference. Their non conference schedule this year was: at Virginia, Ohio State, Notre Dame. Just think of that WSU game as their cupcake for the season like Florida playing the Citadel or Oklahoma playing Chattanooga. Oklahoma at least has the good loss argument, but Florida doesn't even have that as losing to Mississippi at home is way, way worse than losing to Oregon State on the road.

After you made that list, I went and looked through USC's box scores quick. They haven't given up 180 passing yards in a game once all season. While it's true that Texas has faced a lot of good passing teams, I think the fact that USC gave up less passing yards in their worst game than Texas did in their best game speaks volumes.

I can definitely see your point about Texas deserving it more, but USC and Florida have just been so sick lately. Florida's last 4 SEC games (including two against nationally ranked teams), they've won by 31, 30, 58, and 39. In USC's wins this year, they've won every game except the Arizona game by at least 28 points including 2 blowouts over Top 30 teams and 3 shutouts. Texas meanwhile, has some pretty big holes in the secondary as they rank 80th in pass efficiency defense and 116th in raw passing yards allowed. They've given up more points this season than USC and Florida have combined.

BTW, even though I didn't post my rankings here last week, I still did them, so here is this week's Top 25 with previous week's ranking included. (I didn't do the close spots this week, because there's a huge dropoff after #25 and I feel really shaky trying to rank teams like South Carolina and Maryland.) 1. Penn State 9-0 (3) 2. Texas Tech 9-0 (6) 3. Alabama 9-0 (2) 4. USC 7-1 (4) 5. Florida 7-1 (5) 6. Texas 8-1 (1) 7. Oklahoma 8-1 (7) 8. Oklahoma State 8-1 (8) 9. TCU 9-1 (10) 10. Boise State 8-0 (11) 11. Ohio State 7-2 (13) 12. Utah 8-0 (12) 13. Missouri 7-2 (14) 14. California 6-2 (22) 15. Georgia 7-2 (9) 16. Georgia Tech 7-2 (NR) 17. North Carolina 6-2 (17) 18. Ball State 8-0 (18) 19. Michigan State 8-2 (19) 20. Arizona 5-3 (21) 21. Florida State 6-2 (16) 22. BYU 8-1 (20) 23. LSU 6-2 (23) 24. Northwestern 7-2 (NR) 25. Oregon State 5-3 (24)

I think Oklahoma definitely gets it under tiebreak scenario #1. They'll be really close in votes with Texas tomorrow and if Texas Tech holds on to a Top 2 ranking for a month before facing OU and is #1 when they play them, a win by the Sooners should be enough for them to jump one spot over the Horns.

I don't see how you can possibly dog the Texas Tech fans for storming the field after that game. It was the biggest win in the history of their program and they secured it with 1 second on the clock. This idea that storming the field is only for huge dogs is pretty ridiculous in my book. And that was a tremendous, tremendous game. It was the most enjoyable football game I've watched since the 2007 Fiesta Bowl when Boise State beat Oklahoma. As far as the rankings go, I'd put Texas Tech #2 (behind Penn State, ahead of Alabama), and Texas at #6. While I'll admit the Longhorns have a slightly better resume in terms of wins and losses than USC or Florida, the Trojans and Gators are so talented, and have been so dominant in their wins that I can't justify putting any other one loss teams ahead of them.

Wow, WSU's truly pathetic. They're down 44-0 to Stanford right now in the 3rd quarter. And obviously, huge win for Georgia Tech. They got a little lucky on the late fumble, but they were dominating before Nesbitt got hurt, so I think it balances out.

Edit: Wrong thread. As long as I'm here though, it might be interesting to point out that if Texas Tech wins tonight, every single person in the Top 7 will win their matchup.

If Oklahoma doesn't win their division and is still in the 2 to 3 range in the BCS at the end of the season, I think the backlash in the polls could allow even USC to catch them. For some reason, the media just decided that teams that don't win their conference don't belong in the title game no matter how arbitrary a factor it is. A one-loss Georgia or Florida would definitely catch OU in that scenario as well. If they do somehow go 12-1 after winning a 3-way tiebreak with Texas and Texas Tech for the division, I think the only way they could still get caught is if a one-loss Georgia or Florida beats a 12-0 Alabama team in the SECCG.

Iowa's defense is as good as anyone's in the country. They currently rank #5 in scoring defense and #20 in total defense, having not given up more than 20 in a game all year. And that's against a pretty tough schedule. There have been some close losses that hurt their record, but the talent's there and the offense seems to be coming together the last couple weeks, putting up 45 points on Indiana and 38 on Wisconsin. I'm expecting that when the lines come out next week, Iowa will be about a 3 point underdog at home and I'd be happy to bet the Hawkeyes at that price.

FYP. They have the bye week, so that should help them, but Iowa's no pushover. They're currently ranked #10 in the country by Sagarin predictor.

Almost forgot to make my picks this week. Made it with a little over an hour to go. THURSDAY Auburn at West Virginia SATURDAY Texas Tech at Kansas Illinois at Wisconsin Wake Forest at Miami Boston College at North Carolina Cincinnati at Connecticut Georgia at LSU Michigan State at Michigan Virginia Tech at Florida State Oklahoma State at Texas Texas A&M at Iowa State Penn State at Ohio State Oregon at Arizona State USC at Arizona Tiebreak #1: How many total points will be scored in the Oklahoma State/Texas game? 57 Tiebreak #2: How many passing yards will Texas Tech's Graham Harrell have against Kansas? 396

Well, it's not the same since LSU's 7 spots behind USC in the polls and they have a 30-point loss this year, but you're probably right in that if LSU avenged their loss to Florida in the SEC championship, there's a great chance they'd get the benefit of the doubt. Honestly though, I think it's a lot more likely that LSU finishes 9-3 than that they finish 12-1 with a win over Florida so I haven't put too much effort into calculating their chances. A one-loss Alabama would have no shot of getting in vs. USC though, and even if LSU beat Georgia for the SEC title at 12-1, I don't think they'd make it over the Trojans. Would start to depend on screwy factors like how Ohio State and Oregon State do the rest of the way.

Here's a complete list of teams that can get in over USC with one loss: Florida Georgia Texas* Oklahoma** *= only if said loss comes in the next 2 weeks and they still win the Big XII title **= only if they win the Big XII title That's about it. A one loss Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Alabama, LSU, or Penn State would have no shot against the Trojans. Also, this talk about the computers punishing USC for their bad schedule is just that, talk. The fact is that USC doesn't play one non-BCS opponent and still has the big win over Ohio State to hang their hat on. That should more than make up for the fact that the Pac-Ten's a little down this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish the season with a better SOS of than most of the SEC contenders. Also, if you look at the actual betting markets, the only team that has a better chance of winning the title than USC is Texas. Saying they're "out of the race" is ludicrous. The fact is that it's almost better to lose to an upper mid-level team like Oregon State than a top-tier team like Texas since the voters love to use this ridiculously simplistic head-to-head logic where "team A beat team B, therefore team B can't be ranked ahead of team A, even if team A's loss was much worse".

Here's my Top 25 BTW (not really in the mood to include previous rankings this week): 1. Texas 7-0 2. Alabama 7-0 3. Penn State 8-0 4. USC 5-1 5. Oklahoma 6-1 6. Florida 5-1 7. Oklahoma State 7-0 8. Ohio State 7-1 9. TCU 6-1 10. Texas Tech 7-0 11. Georgia 6-1 12. LSU 5-1 13. Utah 7-0 14. Boise State 6-0 15. Georgia Tech 6-1 16. South Florida 6-1 17. Pittsburgh 5-1 18. Boston College 5-1 19. Tulsa 7-0 20. Ball State 7-0 21. Missouri 5-2 22. Kansas 5-2 23. BYU 6-1 24. Virginia Tech 5-2 25. Arizona 5-2 Close: Florida State, California, Oregon State, North Carolina, Iowa