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iggymcfly

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Posts posted by iggymcfly

  1. Posted · Report reply

    Actually, I bet Tennessee wins next week. That's going to be a huge letdown for LSU blowing their chance to play for a national title in the Superdome by losing to Arkansas. Watch LSU slip to the Cotton Bowl now when Georgia gets the BCS at-large bid and the Capital One Bowl takes Florida to play Illinois. That would actually be a pretty good game as we'd probably get the Mizzou/Kansas loser on the Big XII side.

  6. Posted · Report reply

    I can't believe I heard Kirk Herbstreit actually say "We are a Mizzou/Kansas loss and a WVU loss away from USC being in the title picture." How the hell could USC possibly be in any sort of title scene when they currently wouldn't even win the Pac 10 AND have a loss to #108 Stanford? Not to mention a bleh SOS of 53. Hell I would take a 2 loss LSU over them, or 2 loss UGA.

     

    If West Virginia lost today, I'd put USC #3. They're probably playing the best football in America now that they're healthy. The only thing that would keep them out in that scenario would be a hot Georgia if they were impressive vs. LSU or Oklahoma if they pound the Kansas/Mizzou winner with Bradford back. USC would easily get in over a 1-loss Kansas or a 2-loss LSU.

     

    P.S. This will all be moot in 3.5 hours because UConn's chances of beating West Virginia are about nil. They're a 21-point underdog at the moment.

  7. Posted · Report reply

    BTW, here's my Heisman Top Ten at the moment:

     

    1. Tim Tebow

    2. Pat White

    3. Chris Long

    4. Michael Crabtree

    5. Kevin Smith

    6. Chase Daniel

    7. Dennis Dixon

    8. Glenn Dorsey

    9. Dan Connor

    10. Darren McFadden

     

    Explain to me why Ray Rice isn't even in the top 10. You're not the only one dismissing him, so there must be some reason that I'm missing.

     

    Yards per carry of some of the top backs:

    Jamaal Charles: 6.4

    Rashard Mendenhall: 6.2

    Jonathan Stewart: 6.2

    Matt Forte: 6.0

    Kevin Smith: 5.9

    Chris Wells: 5.8

    Darren McFadden: 5.6

    Mike Hart: 5.3

    Ray Rice: 5.1

     

    Add in that he's playing for a 7-4 team and that his only games over 150 yards were vs. Buffalo, Navy, Syracuse, South Florida, and Army and a better question becomes "why would anyone vote for him for the Heisman?"

  10. Posted · Report reply

    USC >>> UConn. The Sagarin predictor has USC 9 points better on a neutral field and that doesn't take into account how much healthier USC is than they were a few weeks ago. There's a reason that West Virginia's favored by 17 over UConn this week while ASU's a 3 point dog to USC. It should be a moot point by Thursday though as I really think the Trojans win this one.

  13. Posted · Report reply

    I think part of me was kind of hoping that he'd shoot on the current product a little bit too. Since when he made his first debut it was about "saving us from how boring the WWF was in general" and they'd been using the "save us" thing for all the promos. Just something like "yes, we acknowledge that it's been bad and we're planning to make it better". This seemed like another simple by-the-numbers WWE segment where not much really happens as they try to stretch every basic little feud out over 4 months.

  14. Posted · Report reply

    Decided to wait for the new CFB thread to do the tier system this week as I was kinda busy on Sunday. Anyway, here are the chances that the remaining contenders have if they win the remainder of their games.

     

     

    Tier I: The Frontrunners

    These are the teams that just need to win the rest of their games to go to the championship. For the first time since the first week I did the system, we again have 3 teams that control their own destinies if they win out.

     

    Kansas (11-0): With Oregon's loss, Kansas has gone from 99% to make the title game if they win out to 100%. All they have to worry about now is beating Missouri and either Oklahoma or Texas.

     

    LSU (10-1): LSU's also just has to focus on their remaining games to make the championship. They should get by Arkansas without too much trouble, but Tennessee or Georgia (the latter with a pretty solid home advantage) could be trouble in the SEC Championship.

     

    Missouri (10-1): Missouri took a huge leap this week, jumping two groups as the Oregon loss almost guarantees them a trip to New Orleans if they win out. West Virginia is slightly ahead of them at the moment in the BCS Standings, but that really doesn't mean much. They're almost dead even in the polls and WVU's whole edge comes from the computer rankings. However, WVU didn't even lead Mizzou in the computer rankings until last week when they got a boost from beating Cincy. With Missouri getting a much bigger computer boost if they beat Kansas and likely taking a lead in the polls as well, they're almost guaranteed to go to the championship if they win out. The only way West Virginia could pass them is if the Missouri/Kansas game is so ugly that Mizzou actually loses ground in the polls after beating the #2 team. It would have to be something along the lines of a 12-10 game with 13 turnovers.

     

     

    Tier II: The Contenders

    This is the group of teams (OK, only one team this week) that is still in the thick of the race. If they win out, they're favored to reach the title game.

     

    West Virginia (9-1): Even though West Virginia can't beat out a 12-1 Missouri or LSU, they're still in a very good spot to reach the title game. If LSU has to face a red-hot Georgia team in Atlanta, they're not going to be much better than a coinflip to win and there's a great shot that Oklahoma or Missouri falls in the Big XII title game too. All things considered, West Virginia was probably the biggest beneficiary of the OU and UO losses last week.

     

     

    Tier III: Still in the race

    A teams that in this group will be less than 50/50 to make the championship if they win out, but will still have a pretty reasonable chance to qualify.

     

    Arizona State (9-1): Could the Sun Devils pass West Virginia? Yes, but it won't be easy. They're currently 6th in the polls and would have to leap two teams to get there. In order to do that, they'll have to really get a "buzz" going in the national media and eking out a close win at home over USC won't cut it. I think the line is probably somewhere around 2 TDs in terms of how much they'd have to beat USC by to get past the Mountaineers. Obviously, UConn playing WVU close couldn't hurt their cause.

     

    Ohio State (11-1): Ohio State's certainly not out of the race, but with no games left, they really can't pass anyone. If Arizona State beat USC and Arizona, they'll almost certainly pass the Buckeyes, so OSU needs 3 teams out of LSU, the KU/Mizz winner, WVU, and ASU to lose. That's not quite as hard it seems as all except West Virginia have tough games left, but the Buckeyes are still only about 10-15% to go to New Orleans.

     

     

    Tier IV: The Longshots

    These teams while still technically in the race are going to need every single break to go their way. There will have to be some crazy upsets for one of these teams to actually make it to New Orleans.

     

    None: Ohio State's "leader in the clubhouse" status really hurts the 2-loss teams at this point as there's no reasonable justification to put such a team ahead of the Buckeyes. The only way such a team can get in is if LSU, Kansas, Missouri, West Virginia, and Arizona State all lose, and that's really difficult, especially with West Virginia passing their last real test against Cincinnati last week. Georgia has a very outside shot as do USC and Oklahoma, but none are really worth listing at this point as none are more than 1% even if they win out.

     

     

    Eliminated last week

    It's pretty much two strikes and you're out this season. The following teams eliminated themselves from the race last week.

     

    Oklahoma (9-2) So just how hard would it be for Oklahoma? They'd need Tennessee to beat Kentucky on the road then beat LSU in the SEC Championship or else Georgia to lose to Georgia Tech before beating LSU. They'd need Arizona State to lose to USC or Arizona. They'd need West Virginia to lose to UConn or Pitt as a 2 TD favorite. And even then, it would be a close race between them, Kansas, and USC. For all intents and purposes, the Sooners are done.

     

    Oregon (8-2): The Ducks are absolutely 100% done with the loss at Arizona. Even in an apocalyptic scenario where Tennessee and Texas win the SEC and Big XII, the voters would do everything in their power to keep a Dixon-less UO team out of the title game.

  17. Posted · Report reply

    Since this thread's all about the FCS talk, I just wanted to say that they narrowly avoided a potential split championship when North Dakota State (who's ineligible for the playoffs) lost their finale against South Dakota State 29-24 to finish 10-1. McNeese State, Montana, and Northern Iowa are all undefeated going into the playoffs so there should be some good matchups. Well, actually maybe not including Montana. I've watched bits and pieces of their games this year when they're on TV and they're really not good at all. I'd expect them to get upset in the 2nd round or something.

  18. Posted · Report reply

    Iggy's Top 25:

     

    (Previous week's rank in parenthesis)

    1. LSU 10-1 (1)

    2. Kansas 11-0 (4)

    3. Missouri 10-1 (5)

    4. West Virginia 9-1 (6)

    5. Ohio State 11-1 (8)

    6. Arizona State 9-1 (7)

    7. Georgia 9-2 (10)

    8. USC 8-2 (9)

    9. Florida 8-3 (11)

    10. Virginia Tech 9-2 (12)

    11. Oklahoma 9-2 (3)

    12. Oregon 8-2 (2)

    13. Boston College 9-2 (18)

    14. South Florida 8-3 (16)

    15. Tennessee 8-3 (17)

    16. Illinois 9-3 (20)

    17. Texas 9-2 (21)

    18. Cincinnati 8-3 (13)

    19. Auburn 7-4 (22)

    20. Connecticut 9-2 (24)

    21. Kentucky 7-4 (14)

    22. Virginia 9-2 (25)

    23. Boise State 10-1 (26)

    24. Hawaii 10-0 (28)

    25. Texas Tech 8-4 (NR)

     

    Close: Wisconsin, Clemson, Michigan, BYU, Oregon State, Florida State, Utah

  19. Posted · Report reply

    2. With Dixon done, Heisman begins and ends with Tim Tebow. His stats are unbeatable--significantly better than Dixon's were, even--and he's both the best player on his team and probably the most valuable component of any team. I'd also like to see Darren McFadden, Dixon, Glenn Dorsey, and Chris Long get invites to New York. I know defensive players never win it, but those two guys have gotten insane production out of their respective positions, have affected entire offensive lines every game, and have been absolute game-changers.

     

    On this, just wanted to say that while you're mostly right, I think the one player who can still pass Tebow is Chase Daniel. His stats are almost good, and if Mizzou wins their last 3 games, they go to the national championship. If that happens, I think he takes the trophy, but otherwise it's Tebow's to lose.

  20. Posted · Report reply

    Best-case scenario, saving both timeouts makes it 1% more likely that Hawaii misses the kick. Honestly, I think it's more likely to help the kicker to get a practice kick. Meanwhile, if Nevada gets the ball with :50 left and 3 timeouts, they're at least 25% to drive for a field goal, probably higher.

     

    RETARDED decision. He has the IQ of an orangutang, I tell you.

  23. Posted · Report reply

    I'm usually all over the idea of a playoff, but this year, I'm actually glad we don't have one. Every team's already gotten a fair shot and now it's just about who wins the games they're supposed to. FWIW, with an 8-team playoff w/the Top 6 conference champs getting auto-bids, all these teams would still have a realistic chance:

     

    Boston College

    Clemson

    Virginia

    Virginia Tech

    Connecticut

    Cincinnati

    West Virginia

    Ohio State

    Michigan

    Kansas

    Missouri

    Oklahoma

    Arizona State

    Oregon

    UCLA

    USC

    Florida

    Tennessee

    Georgia

    LSU

    Boise State

    Hawaii

     

    That just seems like overkill to me. It's the better system long-term for years like 2004 when USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, Cal, and Boise State were all worthy to get a shot at the title, but this year I'm glad for the BCS.

  24. Posted · Report reply

    BTW, I see this "Top 14" thing being mis-applied everywhere as if it's relevant for Boise State and Hawaii. It's not. The Top 14 qualifier is the minimum you need to be eligible for a BCS at-large slot. For example, if a team the bowls want like Notre Dame is #14, they can take them over the #8 or #9 team while they can't take them if they're #15.

     

    The key numbers for mid-major conference champs are #12 and #16. #12 gives them an automatic berth no matter what happens with the rest of the field or the other champions. If they're in the Top 12 and no one's selected them when 9 spots are filled, the Sugar Bowl's required to take them no matter what. Being in the Top 16 is the qualifier if there's a BCS conference champion ranked below them. This could happen if a 10-3 Clemson wins the ACC (with a loss to South Carolina), if a 10-3 Georgia wins the SEC (with a loss to Georgia Tech), or if a 7-5 UCLA wins the Pac-Ten (with ASU losses to USC and Zona). A 9-3 Michigan's a strong possibility here as well, but it's tough to say exactly what would happen to their ranking if they beat OSU with a healthy Hart and Henne. They'd probably pass Boise this week, but would only be about 50/50 to stay above them when Boise beat Hawaii. If Boise State has to try to stay ahead of a 9-3 Michigan to get a slot, they may need Hawaii to be 10-0 when they play them.

  25. Posted · Report reply

    This stuff with figuring out who is going where in the BCS is mind numbing. I hadn't thought of Boise finishing higher in the BCS standings than some jabroni ACC winner (though that's a moot point if VT wins the conf.). Boise might also finish higher than a Big East team if WVU doesn't win the league, though I think a 10-2 Cincy team would likely move up.

     

    USC is currently #11 in the BCS. There's no way in hell they can move ahead of about 8 other teams with only 2 games left. Why assume they are going to simply waltz in and beat Arizona St.?

     

    I don't think they'll "waltz in and beat Arizona State", but they'll probably be a slight favorite. I think there are even early lines on this game that have USC favored by 3. The point is just that they have a chance. Also, of the ten teams above them:

     

    -3 are in the Big XII. If the voters wouldn't let OSU/Michigan happen for the championship, they won't let something like an Oklahoma/Kansas rematch happen no matter what. The Big XII champion's getting in, but there's no way the Big XII gets both sides of the title game.

     

    -Arizona State is on USC's schedule. The Trojans can pass them just by winning.

     

    -Virginia Tech's got no respect at all and will easily be passed if USC just beats ASU. A 2-loss ACC team with a 41 point loss can't make the title game over a 2-loss Pac-Ten team with USC's name value.

     

    -Oregon just lost to a 4-6 Arizona and has an injured QB. They'll be falling very fast in the polls.

     

    -Georgia has a difficult game left with Kentucky and could end up losing their division even if they win out. If it comes down to a 2-loss USC that's on a 4-game winning streak including a huge road win over Arizona State and a 2-loss Georgia that couldn't even win their own division, USC's going to get the nod.

     

    That leaves 3 teams that have to lose: LSU, West Virginia, and Ohio State. Both West Virginia and Ohio State will be playing their toughest game of the season this week (at Cincy and at Michigan) and I picked against both of them in the Pick 'em contest. LSU will be favored in the remainder of their games, but with Arkansas a week from Saturday and a possible date with Tennessee or Florida in the SEC championship, there are no guarantees. An LSU loss is basically the only unlikely thing that has to happen to put USC in.

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