The Man in Blak

I remember that Dennis Cook was mentioned for a streak like that in the 2000 "Subway Series", but I don't think he pitched that many innings, did he? EDIT: Just looked at Baseball-Reference.com. Oh...my...GOD.

The man's thirty-eight years old and, while he's still productive, he's beginning to decline. He's at the stage of his career where he's going to contribute more to a team as a bat off the bench and an occasional starter in the field. Unless some team like the Marlins ridiculously overrates him and gives him a starter's contract, I think that's a pretty realistic evaluation of his prospects, which is why I picked him. In terms of the Giambi/Bernie debate, consider Conine an insurance policy. The health of both guys is in question, so Conine gives the Yankees a guy that can play the field competently and hit above replacement level. Plus, if you decide to DH Giambi exclusively, that means putting Bernie at the corner and call me crazy, but Bernie Williams isn't going to emerge as a gold glover at the corner after playing in the outfield for most (if not all) of his career. If Giambi or Bernie are healthy, you put Conine on the bench and you don't worry about it because, out of those three, he's probably the lesser offensive threat. And, as far as Lofton's concerned, he should have known what he was getting into when he signed on board. Yeah, and he was fantastic last year in a hitter's park. He wasn't horrible for the D-Rays - his third year was awful, but he pitched at the league average his first two years, with ERA+ scores of 101 and 99. Plus, he's only 25 years old right now, which means the Yankees would be getting him in his prime. Perhaps $4-6 million was a little expensive, but I still feel he's a great gamble (more so than Brown was this year).

Given how Rolen's been performing, I cringe to think of what my batting average is through the playoffs so far. What's our current standings?

In that case, they could sign John Flaherty or Brent Mayne for the league minimum. Or, if they were feeling adventurous, go grab Josh Bard off the free agent market. Given Bard's "stunted development" and tap out to Victor Martinez, he should come cheap.

Except that's not really the case, as I explained with my final list of free agents above. If I were Brian Cashman and I wanted to fill out those remaining nine slots, I'd go after: Expensive options: Carlos Beltran - His potential contributions to the team should require no explanation. Ben Sheets - Back problems, schmack problems. This kid is 25 and he's blowing people away. Sign him. Jeff Kent - He's talking retirement, but he actually posted better numbers than last year and he doesn't seem to be falling off the map just yet. Not only is he a right-handed batter with pop at a premier position, Kent's also a veteran with plenty of playoff experience. Potential Bargains: Placido Polanco - Polanco's a former .300 hitter who ended very strongly (.326, 12 homers after the all-star break). Most importantly, Polanco gives the Yankees some positional flexibility, by being able to play solid defense all over the infield. Even if Kent doesn't sign on, you could do far worse than Polanco at 2B. Jeff Conine - Bring him on simply as a bench player who can play a couple of different positions (can spell Matsui in LF, give Bernie/Giambi a rest at 1B). He's decent with the glove and, like Kent, he's a veteran with plenty of playoff experience. Ray King - King's likely to be the best available LOOGY on the market and, given that the Run Fairy is their primary left-hander out of the pen, the Yankees could definitely use him. Joe Kennedy - In case you didn't notice, Joe Kennedy posted a 3.66 ERA in 27 starts for the Colorado Rockies. He's a young lefty who's getting ready to enter his "physical prime" (25 years old) - he'd certainly be worth a $4-6 million flier. Jeremy Affeldt - And now the gamble. You win with Affeldt, a 25 year-old lefty with considerable upside, you win big. The Royals would like to keep him, but I doubt they're going to outbid the Yankees, especially considering Affeldt's injury concerns (and George's limitless pockets). At best, he becomes the left-handed heir to Rivera's closer throne or even a nasty fifth starter (and second lefty in the rotation). At worst, he eats up innings as a long reliever (something the Yankees don't have) when he's not fighting off blister problems. After that, promote Dioner Navarro to be the backup catcher and you get the following team: SS - Jeter CF - Beltran 3B - Rodriguez RF - Sheffield 1B - Giambi LF - Matsui 2B - Kent C - Posada DH - Williams Bench: C - Navarro IF - Polanco 1B/OF - Conine CF - Lofton Starters: RHP: Sheets, Mussina, Brown, Vasquez LHP: Kennedy CL - Rivera LHP: King, Heredia, Affeldt RHP: Quantrill, Gordon, Karsay

Given what they're working with, that's virtually impossible. Here's the approximate cap numbers on the Yankee contracts for 2005 (from Dugout Dollars): Kevin Brown: $15 million Jason Giambi: $17.14 million Mike Mussina: $14.75 million Jorge Posada: $10.2 million Mariano Rivera: $10.5 million Alex Rodriguez: $14.48 million Gary Sheffield: $13 million Javier Vasquez: $11.25 million Bernie Williams: $12.58 million Derek Jeter: $18.9 million Just those contracts right there eclipse $125 million, and I'm not even counting the lesser contracts for 2005: Hideki Matsui: $7 million Kenny Lofton: $3.1 million Tom Gordon: $3.63 million Paul Quantrill: $3.2 million Steve Karsay: $5.63 million Felix Heredia: $1.9 million Three starters, eight position starters (if they put Lofton in CF and DH Bernie), and five relievers. The Yankees have 16 out of 25 roster spots already set in stone and the only contracts up there that are really trade-worthy might be Hideki Matsui (who isn't going anywhere) and Javier Vasquez, whose performance in 2004 will assure that the Yankees would probably have to eat up around half of his salary just to pique interest from other clubs. Brown and Giambi are huge injury risks. Sheffield, Williams, Rivera, Mussina, and Posada look to be entering (or are already in) the decline phase of their career. Jeter and A-Rod's respective contracts are absolute abominations that nobody in their right mind would touch. Lofton's 37 and due for arthroscopic knee surgery. All of the relievers are hideously overpaid. Unless George arranges lobotomies for owners around the league, they really have no tradeable commodities. There's no real way to gut this team or even cut the payroll to $125 million. As always, the Yankees will dip into the free agent market and have their choice picks of the pool. There's plenty of options out there: Carlos Beltran, Carl Pavano, Matt Clement, Ben Sheets, Jeff Kent (assuming Houston declines the $9 million option for 2005), Guillermo Mota, Octavio Dotel, Roberto Alomar, Billy Wagner (if Philly declines the $9 million option for 2005), Troy Percival, Ray King, Jason Marquis, Bret Boone, Craig Counsell, Placido Polanco or even Jeff Conine (if the Marlins decline his $4.75 million option) are out there to fill up the holes in the 'pen, at CF, at 2B, or on the bench.

More Brian Gunn hilarity from The Hardball Times:

Very true. Edmonds has been a little anxious this series, though. Rolen hasn't been swinging the bat well at all this postseason, save for a homer or two, so his 0-fer doesn't surprise me. What surprises me is pinch-running Marquis for our catcher and pinch-hitting Roger Cedeno...using nearly every reliever in the cupboard (Matt Morris is pitching tomorrow, Tony)...starting So Taguchi in a World Series game...and leaving Roger Cedeno in the game for the final at-bat. John Mabry hit .296 and 13 HR in 240 ABs. You've got an open lineup slot at DH. START HIM.

That '98 team may have had a lot of "merely solid" players like Scott Brosius and Chuck Knoblauch, but there wasn't a single hole on that team. That roster was solid from 1 to 25.

Okay, I'll retract that. *smacks himself on the head*

The Cardinals acquired most of their key players (Rolen, Walker, Edmonds) through trades. Sure, some of these deals were incredibly lopsided affairs (where art thou, Bud Smith and Kent Bottenfield), but it takes two to tango and the Cardinals had to give up players in the deal. The Yankees, meanwhile, went out and signed the top slugger (Sheffield) on the market. Last year, they were the first people in line for the Matsui/Contreras sweepstakes. The year before that, they brought in Giambi and David Wells (again). All directly out of pocket. And, finally: Payroll for the 2004 St. Louis Cardinals: $82 million Payroll for the 2004 New York Yankees: $182 million You don't really want to make that comparison, do you? EDITED...because, well, I fucked up.

My point exactly.

Then WHAT THE HELL IS? Gutting the team, embarssing everyone with a shitfactory of a group for the next five years, so that in ten years, we'll be exactly where we are now? With a shot to win it all, if breaks go our way? Yeah, you're right. Why should the Yankees have to go through the same development process as teams with less than $60 million for payroll?

At least this isn't like the 1987 series, where the Twins got home field advantage, despite barely being about .500. Fenway isn't the Metrodome and the Red Sox aren't the '87 Twins, so the lack of home field doesn't irritate me.

BPro is a great read - you'll definitely want to grab the 2005 version whenever you start scouting around for fantasy baseball information. Speaking of which, when do the new editions normally come out?

We're starting Morris on the road AGAIN?!

I know it sounds McCarver-esque, but the key for Boston is mistake-free baseball - Boston's got the better starting staff, but that won't mean a thing if the defense boots one and gives the bloodthirsty Cardinals a chance to capitalize. I can't find any statistical grounding to back this up but I would wager that the Cardinals lead the league in unearned runs scored this year - in the games that I've watched, it seems like St. Louis has almost always cashed in on their opponent's mistakes. The league difference provides minor disadvantages for both teams: in the NL games, we'll get to bear witness to the Comedy of Errors with Ortiz at first base...but in the AL games, the Cardinals won't really have anybody to throw in the DH spot other than John Mabry. Both lineups are very comparable - the Cardinals strummed to the tune of an .804 team OPS (with a pitcher), while the Red Sox raked with an .832 team OPS (with a DH). The Boston bench is deeper (we do have Hector Luna, after all), but the St. Louis bullpen is arguably better. One very distinct difference lies in the home/away splits; the Cardinals fared very well on the road this season, having only a -1 win differential in their home/road records. Boston has a -12 win differential, as well as a 100 point drop in OPS when they're on the road, but their pitching remained about the same (opposing home OPS was only 8 points higher). However, while the Cardinals are almost limping into the World Series (injuries to Carpenter, Tavarez, Kline, Rolen, Womack), Boston is coming into the series with nearly 100 years worth of momentum...and it's the playoffs, so you can probably throw home/road splits for the regular season out of the window. Both teams are very evenly matched. Like I said in the chat, the realist in me says that Boston will probably take it in six, but the fan in me thinks that the Cardinals will grit their teeth and bring it home in seven.

Awesome moment after the game, as some of the Cardinal players (Ankiel, Reggie Sanders, Edgar Renteria, Mike Lincoln) came out to high-five and spray champagne all over the fans near the dugout who had stayed to celebrate. Just a great moment. Carpenter threw a little 26-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday, so I think there's a pretty good chance that he could come in as a long reliever or maybe even a late series starter. Kline, on the other hand, I'm not sure about - he was available in Sunday's game "for an emergency", but I haven't heard anything new about his fingers yet. They may have to have *cringe* Ankiel on the roster just to have another LOOGY on board.

Actually, I think it works against the Seamhead school of thought because the deals at the deadline (acquiring Cabrera and Mientkiewicz) were rooted in getting guys with better defense and "better fundamentals." And, even though that's a misinterpretation of the meaning behind Moneyball, that doesn't mean that it can't keep writers from giving credit where credit's due.

I think Larry Walker deserves a little more consideration, personally: 3 Batting Titles 7 Gold Gloves .314 Career BA 228 SB, to match 368 HR 1997 MVP (the year he almost hit the triple crown) 55th all time in On-Base Percentage 76th all time in Adjusted OPS+ (which considers park factors) He passes the HOF Monitor by a wide margin (147 to 100), he meets the HOF Standards Test (52.8 to ~50), and four out of his top five comps are current Hall of Famers. He's not a first ballot guy, but I say he gets in.

I can't really vouch for him, since I didn't catch many regular season Astros games. But I will say that he probably cost the Astros the opportunity to clinch at home by his inexplicable refusal to pitch Dan Miceli in Game 2...and that's bad enough.

You know, people forget that Jimy Williams probably single-handedly cost the Astros five or six games with his love for Orlando Palmeiro, the sacrifice bunt, and other various managerial fuckups. The Astros are very deserving to be in the postseason - considering that they won the NLDS and had the lead in this series, I don't think it really requires much explanation past that.

I think San Francisco and Cleveland are their best shots at avoiding 0-16 - both teams have mediocre offenses that the Miami D can shut down and both the 49ers and the Browns have fairly lousy defenses that even Miami could exploit.

Both backs are splitting time - one plays for a super-high powered nightmare of an offense, the other plays for Cleveland. Consider and decide accordingly.

I really thought Porter had more talent than this, but he's starting to look like the second coming of Alvin Harper. He's just not doing the job without the spectres of Tim Brown and Jerry Rice keeping defenses busy. As for Collins' performance and Norv Turner's system...well, color me disappointed. I can't help but think that there's some left over unrest in the locker room from last year (or, more accurately, since the day they lost the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay), because the Raiders seem flatter than ever. Largent approved, but I'm not sure I do, especially considering the circumstances behind the trade.