The Man in Blak

You know, the fact that a reliever can pitch himself into a save situation by stinking up the joint is pretty worthless as well. If Jorge Julio comes in with a four run lead to mop stuff up, gives up a two-run homer, and then finishes the game, I really don't think he deserves a save, since the "save situation" was self-manufactured.

I think the idea behind saves is a very good one - you want to reward pitchers that succeed in high-leverage situations. The problem with the save is in the defined context of a "save situation", where too much weight is placed upon finishing the game. Here's an example: Danny Graves can come into the ninth inning with a 6-5 lead and get three outs for the save, but Ryan Wagner wouldn't get a save from coming into a seventh inning situation with the same score and retiring three batters while runners are in scoring position. Wagner's situation is considerably more dangerous: we can quantify this by using Tangotiger's Win Expectancy metric (I tried to find a better link for this concept, but this will have to do): Wagner's Situation: - Bottom of 8th, 6-5 lead, runners on 2nd and 3rd, no outs - Opponent's Initial Win Expectancy: 68.2% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 1 out: 54.6% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 2 outs: 33.4% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 3 outs: 19.4% - Net Change in Win Expectancy: 48.8% Graves' Situation: - Bottom of 9th, 6-5 lead, no outs - Opponent's Initial Win Expectancy: 19.4% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 1 out: 10.8% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 2 outs: 4.2% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 3 outs: 0 ('cause the game's over) - Net Change in Win Expectancy: 19.4% Win Expectancy is a fairly intuitive concept - a team's Win Expectancy percentage at a given point in the game is the percentage chance that the team will win that game. By getting out of that jam, Ryan Wagner gave the Reds increased their chances of winning that game by 48.8%. Despite closing out the game and ensuring the win (100% Win Expectancy), Danny Graves only increased their chances of winning the game by 19.4%. However, in this scenario, Graves would get the save, despite the fact that both pitchers retired the same number of batters - three - and that Wagner had much more of an impact on the game by retiring his three batters in a much more dangerous situation. Wagner gets the consolation "hold" statistic. The save does well to have some context, but it doesn't have enough to really legitimize it as a measure of a good pitcher and, by adding an additional statistic for holds, baseball only increases the confusion. What makes it even worse is that the entire philosophy of "save situations" has subconsciously influenced managers into holding their best relievers out of high-leverage situations.

Crumbles under pressure? He had thrown 44 pitches - 2.1 innings pitched one night after he had been used to close the game out. It's not Nathan's fault that his arm turned into jello. I thought that the Red Sox were somewhat insane in their calls for Grady Little's head, but at least Little's hunch wasn't a blatant disregard for simple baseball logic. This is something that you fire a manager over, in my opinion.

*bump* If no one else will do it, I'll update with some statistics through the first two games.

I'm not watching the game, but for those who are: is Tim McClelland just putting a huge squeeze on Roger Clemens, or is Clemens just really off today? Clemens has six walks today.

Andruw Jones batting behind Adam LaRoche? How the mighty have fallen. (Even with LaRoche being hot down the stretch.)

"Hurt" is pretty weighty, but the video absolutely pushes it to the top of the heap. The old footage, the sight of Cash at the piano...there's just a lot of powerful imagery. But don't forget - it lost at the VMAs to Missy Elliott. Outside of Johnny Cash, I think I'd pick Tom Waits' "Soldier's Things."

Then I'd wager that the Yankees would be fucked.

Yeah, 6.02 ERA on the road? I'll pass, thanks. I think that this gets down to an issue of player loyalty; Morris was probably expected to be the No. 1 starter in the playoffs but, since he obviously doesn't have the stuff for it, LaRussa put him into Game 3 so that he could potentially clinch the series and get a confidence boost. Matt's problems are primarily based on inconsistent mechanics and the fact that his head hasn't been in the game fully ever since Darryl Kile died. When he's on, he's one of the best pitchers out there, but when he's not on (or he falls behind), he's about as bad as you can get. If the Dodgers hang one or two on him early in Game 3, we're doomed. As a Cardinal fan, I'd love to see him stick around and straighten things out, but I think there's better opportunities for him out there (like, say, the Mets and Rick Peterson).

I loathe playing devil's advocate here, but let's put this all into perspective. Not to discredit Santana's effort in Game 1, but there are far too many factors that indicate that this was a fluke. Santana is a fly-ball pitcher, with an 0.93 GB/FB ratio. He "induced" (if you can even use such a term) fifteen double plays through the entire regular season; his stuff (fastball, hard slider, A+ changeup) does not predominantly create ground ball outs. On top of that, Santana didn't even have his best stuff, as he only struck out five in seven innings (compare against his obscene 10.46 K/9 numbers from the regular season). It's not like the Yankees are a bunch of panty-waists with the sticks: New York was 17th in the major leagues with an offensive GB/FB ratio of 1.21. They were second in the league in runs scored (897), and it's hard to believe that those runs weren't generated by hits with runners on base. If I were Joe Torre, would I be terribly worried? Not really. The odds of the Yankees grounding into five double plays in this postseason, let alone this series, again are very slim. Sure, funny things happen in October. Funny things happen in May, too. Don't confuse the issue and say that "this isn't the regular season" and proclaim that we're now into "clutch playoff situations" - the only difference between a fluke in the playoffs and a fluke in the regular season is the sample size. The Yankees have a legitimate shot with Lieber, who's pitched very well at home (11-3 with a 3.68 ERA at home), going up against another flyball pitcher in Brad Radke (1.13 GB/FB ratio). Radke's probably not going to strike out five in nine innings, let alone seven, so expect a lot of contact...and not as many double plays.

Why would any other team want to trade for somebody like that? Ricky's contract numbers and his "passion for the game" either kill his value to such a level that the Dolphins won't get any real return out of trading him...or rule him out as a tradeable commodity entirely. His bizarre off-the-field quirks create too much risk for the reward of his talents. The only team that I could see trading for him, if any team at all, would be the Cowboys, who have a huge need at running back and, as an organization, have never been afraid to take "bad boys" under their wing.

I get three points total between Chad Johnson, Rod Smith, and Reggie Wayne. Right. *sigh* Ah, well. Moving on to next week...

And a home run for Larry Walker makes it 2-0!

Not that it matters, since you have to pay to access the Gameday Audio from MLB.com. And, of course, there's some bizarre electro-magnetic field around my building that allows the Smooth Jazz and religious stations to come in clearly, but blocks out all possible Cardinals Radio affiliates.

Sounds to me like a shitty college newspaper article. In the meantime, since I couldn't catch the game, I walked down to the area around the stadium and picked up a bratwurst. Once I find an online radio station that carries the game, my playoff experience will begin. You may now return to your shallow, uneventful lives.

Heh. This is going to be a fun day at work.

And he's dealing with back spasms that forced them to push back his playoff start, so I'm not sure I'd consider him to be at 100%.

Well, a lot of that has to do with the fact that Favre got clobbered and knocked out of the game. Doug Pederson can't exactly conduct the symphony of destruction, even with Green, Walker, Driver, and Ferguson. If there's any problems with the offense, it's the turnovers - they have got to teach Ahman Green to protect the ball.

It gets better. ----------------------------- 10/04/2004 10:41 AM ET Sosa vents his frustration By Carrie Muskat / MLB.com CHICAGO -- Sammy Sosa says that he is tired of taking the blame when things don't go well for the Chicago Cubs. Sosa reported to Wrigley Field at 12:10 p.m. for Sunday's 1:20 p.m. game, was not in the starting lineup and apparently left early -- without approval -- in the seventh inning. He never changed into his uniform, and was never on the bench. "I felt that even if he wasn't playing that he obviously should have been here," Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said after the game. "He also should have dressed in uniform, the same as all the other players." Manager Dusty Baker was upset that Sosa left early. "I didn't know he was going to leave," he said. "I didn't give him permission. I saw him about 12:50 when I was going to the field, and he was packing his stuff up, like a lot of guys were. Jim's got to take some action." Sosa had told reporters after Saturday's game that he would talk on Sunday. But when he was approached before the season finale, he refused interview requests. "I'm always the guy they are going to blame," he told the Chicago Sun-Times. "They blame me for not going to the World Series last year. They blame me for not going to the playoffs this year. I'm tired of it." Sosa has one year left on his contract with the Cubs, which will pay him $17 million. There is a club option for 2006 of $18 million. This season, Sosa finished with a .253 average -- his lowest since 1997 -- 35 home runs and 80 RBIs. He has hit at least 35 home runs in each of the last 10 seasons. Sosa, who turns 36 on Nov. 12, told the Sun-Times that he was upset at Baker's comments before Sunday's game; the manager said that he wanted the slugger to come back next year in "tip-top shape, mentally and physically." Sosa missed a month this season because of sneeze-induced back spasms, and also was bothered by bursitis in his hip and a sore shoulder. "No one has ever questioned my mental or physical preparation at any level," Sosa told the Sun-Times. "They always find something to blame me for." Earlier this season, Sosa was not happy when Baker made suggestions regarding his batting stance. On Aug. 18, Sosa called the manager and told him that he was willing to be dropped lower in the batting order, and was moved to fifth for the first time in 10 years. Sosa eventually dropped another notch, to sixth. He also left Wrigley during another game in early September. He missed the Sept. 6 game because of bursitis in his right hip, and exited the next day during the Cubs' 7-6, 12-inning loss to Montreal. He was supposed to be available to pinch-hit.

So, basically, it gets down to: SMELL THE RATINGS! 2B - Marcus Giles 3B - Scott Rolen OF - Gary Sheffield OF - Manny Ramirez SP - Pedro Martinez SP - Javier Vasquez CL - Mariano Rivera Alkeiper 2B - Marcus Giles 3B - Adrian Beltre OF - Lance Berkman OF - J.D. Drew SP - Pedro Martinez SP - Roy Ozwalt CL - John Smoltz the pinjockey 2B - Jeff Kent 3B - Alex Rodriguez OF - Vladimir Guerrero OF - Gary Sheffield SP - Pedro Martinez SP - Roger Clemens CL - Brad Lidge The Man in Blak 2B - Tony Womack 3B - Scott Rolen OF - Larry Walker OF - Hideki Matsui SP - Roy Ozwalt SP - Roger Clemens CL - Mariano Rivera

Actually, it's funny you mentioned that. Favre hopped over there to the sideline - Sherman asked him if he was okay, Favre said yes, and then he walked onto the field, while the medical team behind him was screaming at the top of their lungs. I don't think Sherman had a single clue as to what was going on. Then Favre takes the snap, concussed, and throws a bomb to Walker for the touchdown. That was one of those moments that you'd laugh at in a movie because it's so contrived and scripted - things like that never happen in real football, do they?

That's actually kind of back-asswards. If anything, sitting on the sidelines and watching film all year should have given him ample amount of time to see those blitz packages and prepare for them when he started taking snaps this year. Maybe his alarm clock was busted yesterday. *snickers*

It's a real shocker if you didn't notice that the Skins didn't have a QB...or an offensive line...or if you were clairvoyant enough to know that Arrington would be forced into knee surgery. And I said it earlier, and I'll say it again - the Packers defensive coach needs to be slapped around with a fresh trout until he realizes that Green Bay doesn't have the personnel to blitz. Barber had around 120 yards on blown blitz packages alone this week, which is all the more upsetting because Thomas Jones rolled up a bunch of yards on the blitz last week. The Packers are better than this (Favre's injury really handcuffed their offense), and the Giants are worse than this too. In case you didn't notice, Warner ate four sacks yesterday because he sat in the pocket and did that pussy half-assed pump fake on almost every pass play. A win's a win, but the Giants got bailed out by poor Packer coaching and Favre's concussion. I've also got to say that if I coached a team that laid down as bad as the Saints did this week (a touchdown pass from EMMITT SMITH), I think I'd just resign, erase my name, and walked the earth until I died. That is, if I wasn't publically executed first.

C - Jorge Posada 1B - Albert Pujols 2B - Tony Womack SS - Derek Jeter 3B - Scott Rolen OF - Jim Edmonds OF - Hideki Matsui OF - Larry Walker SP - Roy Ozwalt SP - Roger Clemens SP - Curt Schilling SP - Johan Santana RP - Mariano Rivera

NLDS: Cardinals over Dodgers in five I don't really like the Morris/Lima start, and Marquis hasn't been sharp.Astros over Braves in fourNot only Clemens and Ozwalt, but potential injury concerns with Thomson and Chipper. ALDS: Yankees over Twins in five Santana takes Game one, but can't pitch ten innings in game five, where the Yankee mystique strikes again.Angels over Red Sox in fiveBold Prediction: Pedro's going to cough up at least one game in this series. NLCS: Cardinals over Astros in seven Much closer than expected, as both teams will be emotionally charged for the series. ALCS: Yankees over Angels in six Sweet, sweet revenge for the Yankees, who will probably be down one or even two games at some point in this series. World Series: Cardinals over Yankees in six Both of these teams can come from behind, both of these teams have plenty of bats, and both of these teams have mediocre pitchers that could turn in a dominating a performance. The Cards have slightly better defense and, with El Duque's health concerns, I feel I'm pretty justified in being a big homer with my predictions. Still, this should be a hell of a series.