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Wrapping up the 2007 Hall of Fame Ballot with the two slam dunks on the ballot and barring a major upset the only two who will be elected on Tuesday. Since there is no real suspense in whether or not these two will be elected I figured I'd just group them together. Sure one could argue than one or the other was overrated in their own right and there will of course be those who will leave them off their ballot just to make sure no one ever gets 100% of the vote. But no one can make a legitimate argument that either is not deserving of being a member of the Hall of Fame. Obviously they are easy "yes" votes from me. Tony Gwynn - Rightfielder San Diego Padres 1982-2001 Awards 1984 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1986 NL Gold Glove - OF 1986 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1987 NL Gold Glove - OF 1987 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1989 NL Gold Glove - OF 1989 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1990 NL Gold Glove - OF 1991 NL Gold Glove - OF 1994 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1995 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1997 NL Silver Slugger - OF All-Star Selections: 15 (1984-1987, 1989-1999) League Leader 1984: Batting Average, Hits 1986: Hits, Runs 1987: Batting Average, Hits 1988: Batting Average 1989: Batting Average, Hits 1994: Batting Average, Hits, OBP 1995: Batting Average, Hits 1996: Batting Average 1997: Batting Average, Hits Career Ranks AVG: 20th Games: 61st Hits: 18th Runs: 84th 2B: 22nd TB: 50th RC: 41st Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 57 (18) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 155 (78) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 53.9 (57) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 277.5 (13) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 9 (Zack Wheat, Rod Carew, Paul Waner, Wade Boggs, Sam Rice, Roberto Clemente, Heinie Manush, George Silser, Sam Crawford) Other Similar Batters: Vada Pinson Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1982: 7/1.8 1983: 10/3.0 1984: 35/10.2 1985: 20/7.3 1986: 29/10.8 1987: 29/12.1 1988: 23/6.6 1989: 30/9.3 1990: 17/6.4 1991: 22/6.7 1992: 18/5.3 1993: 18/6.1 1994: 17/10.0 1995: 23/8.1 1996: 17/4.6 1997: 39/7.9 1998: 19/3.8 1999: 18/3.0 2000: 3/0.6 2001: 4/0.8 Career Win Shares: 398 Career WARP3: 124.3 Cal Ripken - Shortstop Baltimore Orioles 1981-2001 Awards 1982 AL Rookie of the Year 1983 AL MVP 1983 AL Silver Slugger - SS 1984 AL Silver Slugger - SS 1985 AL Silver Slugger - SS 1986 AL Silver Slugger - SS 1989 AL Silver Slugger - SS 1991 AL MVP 1991 ML Sporting News Player of the Year 1991 AL Gold Glove - SS 1991 AL Silver Slugger - SS 1992 AL Gold Glove - SS 1993 AL Silver Slugger - SS 1994 AL Silver Slugger - SS All-Star Selections: 19 (1983-2001) League Leader 1983: Hits, Runs, Doubles, Runs Created 1991: Total Bases Career Ranks Games: 8th Hits: 14th Runs: 31st 2B: 13th HR: 37th RBI: 20th BB: 61st TB: 13th RC: 30th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 19 (112) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 116 (171) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 58.3 (33) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 236.0 (25) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 7 (Dave Winfield, Robin Yount, Al Kaline, Eddie Murray, Carl Yastrzemski, George Brett, Tony Perez) Other Similar Batters: Craig Biggio, Harold Baines, Andre Dawson Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1981: 0/-0.6 1982: 23/8.2 1983: 35/13.9 1984: 37/15.0 1985: 25/10.9 1986: 28/12.5 1987: 20/7.2 1988: 25/9.7 1989: 26/10.1 1990: 20/9.4 1991: 34/17.0 1992: 21/6.8 1993: 17/5.9 1994: 18/7.7 1995: 16/7.5 1996: 22/7.0 1997: 18/5.0 1998: 13/4.6 1999: 12/4.2 2000: 8/3.8 2001: 9/3.4 Career Win Shares: 427 Career WARP3: 169.1

Mark McGwire - First Baseman Oakland Athletics 1986-1997 St. Louis Cardinals 1997-2001 Awards 1987 AL Rookie of the Year 1990 AL Gold Glove - 1B 1992 AL Silver Slugger - 1B 1996 AL Silver Slugger - 1B 1998 NL Silver Slugger - 1B All-Star Selections: 12 (1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000) League Leader 1987: Homeruns, Slugging %, HR/AB 1989: HR/AB 1990: Walks 1992: Slugging %, HR/AB, OPS+ 1995: HR/AB 1996: Homeruns, OBP, Slugging %, HR/AB, OPS, OPS+ 1998: Homeruns, Walks, OBP, Slugging %, HR/AB, Runs Created, OPS, OPS+ 1999: Homeruns, RBI, HR/AB, OPS+ Career Ranks HR: 7th RBI: 60th BB: 34th OBP: 78th SLG: 10th HR/AB: 1st RC: 82nd OPS: 13th OPS+: 11th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 36 (41) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 110 (189) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 42.0 (126) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 169.5 (60) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 2 (Harmon Killewbrew, Willie McCovey) Other Similar Batters: Jim Thome, Jose Canseco, Carlos Delgado, Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, Norm Cash, Jason Giambi, Dave Kingman Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1986: 1/-0.1 1987: 30/8.9 1988: 28/7.6 1989: 21/7.0 1990: 27/10.0 1991: 18/6.1 1992: 29/10.1 1993: 6/2.5 1994: 6/2.5 1995: 23/7.8 1996: 29/9.8 1997: 25/9.4 1998: 41/11.6 1999: 30/8.6 2000: 20/6.0 2001: 8/1.5 Career Win Shares: 342 Career WARP3: 109.5 Would he get my vote? Yes. I thought about doing a very long rant about the entire issue regarding if McGwire should go into the HOF or not but we all know that when the results are announced Tuesday he will not have been elected so this issue is going to last for at least one more year so I'm not going to waste my time for now. What I will say when it comes to considering a player for the HOF who has either been proven to have used steroids or have likely used steroids I feel that if a player is a true borderline candidate that use of steroids can tip the scales against a player as being a deserving HOF. Mark McGwire is not a borderline candidate. 7th all-time in homeruns, 10th all-time in Slugging, 11th all-time OPS+, a .394 career OBP, and he averaged 50 homeruns for every 162 games played. Whether or not he will ever get in, it is too early to tell. The projection seems to be he'll get only 25-30% of the vote on this first ballot and this percentage should increase substantially next year as several voters are using an arbitrary one-year boycott for likely steroid users. What is revealed or not revealed in the following years about his use of steroids and the use of others during his playing days will determine if he ever gets in. No one should feel sorry for McGwire if he never gets in but I think it'd be a real shame if he didn't.

Andre Dawson - Outfielder Montreal Expos 1976-1986 Chicago Cubs 1987-1992 Boston Red Sox 1993-1994 Florida Marlins 1995-1996 6th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 2002: 45.34% 2003: 50.00% 2004: 50.00% 2005: 52.32% 2006: 60.96% Awards 1977 NL Rookie of the Year 1980 NL Gold Glove - OF 1980 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1981 NL Gold Glove - OF 1981 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1982 NL Gold Glove - OF 1983 NL Gold Glove - OF 1983 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1984 NL Gold Glove - OF 1985 NL Gold Glove - OF 1987 NL MVP 1987 NL Gold Glove - OF 1987 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1988 NL Gold Glove - OF All-Star Selections: 8 (1981, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991) League Leader 1983: Hits, Total Bases 1987: Homeruns, RBI, Total Bases Career Ranks Games: 32nd Hits: 45th Runs: 85th HR: 35th RBI: 29th 2B: 42nd TB: 24th RC: 64th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 11 (204) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 164 (68) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 43.7 (115) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 118.0 (118) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 5 (Billy Williams, Tony Perez, Al Kaline, Ernie Banks, Dave Winfield) Other Similar Batters: Dave Parker, Harold Baines, Dwight Evans, Vada Pinson, Fred McGriff Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1976: 1/0.4 1977: 18/5.8 1978: 21/6.0 1979: 24/5.6 1980: 29/9.1 1981: 25/10.7 1982: 26/9.1 1983: 28/8.0 1984: 12/4.9 1985: 16/4.0 1986: 16/4.8 1987: 20/7.2 1988: 19/7.9 1989: 13/4.8 1990: 22/6.4 1991: 20/5.4 1992: 16/6.4 1993: 7/2.1 1994: 1/0.7 1995: 4/0.2 1996: 2/0.0 Career Win Shares: 340 Career WARP3: 109.5 Would he get my vote? No. Maybe I'm just too tough on outfielders as I've gone through about five of them on this ballot that I was just underwhelmed enough by them that I can't give them a vote. Dawson is the one I did the most waffling on due to defensive brilliance early in his career although his last three or four Gold Gloves were purely reputation awards. Part of the argument for him seems to be that if he hadn't his knees destroyed by the awful Olympic Stadium turf he would have reached several major career milestones which I wouldn't necessarily disagree with. But injuries and the enviroment you play in are part of the game so I can't really justify giving Dawson a bonus for what he might have done had he played on grass his whole career. I'm just not completely blown away by his peak and unimpressed by his career after age 28. Has received solid support though and if he ever does get in hopefully the HOF does the right thing and has him wear an Expos cap.

Bert Blyleven - Starting Pitcher Minnesota Twins 1970-1976, 1985-1988 Texas Rangers 1976-1977 Pittsburgh Pirates 1978-1980 Cleveland Indians 1981-1985 California Angels 1989-1992 10th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 1998: 17.55% 1999: 14.08% 2000: 17.43% 2001: 23.50% 2002: 26.27% 2003: 29.23% 2004: 35.38% 2005: 40.89% 2006: 53.30% Awards None All-Star Selections: 2 (1973, 1985) League Leader 1971: K/BB 1973: Shutouts, K/BB, ERA+ 1977: WHIP 1985: Innings, Strikeouts, Complete Games, Shutouts 1986: Innings, K/BB 1989: Shutouts Career Ranks Wins: 26th IP: 13th K: 5th CG: 91st SHO: 9th K/BB: 44th K/9: 99th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 16 (129) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 239 (24) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 50.0 (36) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 120.5 (68) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: 8 (Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Robin Roberts, Tom Seaver, Early Wynn, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton) Other Similar Pitchers: Tommy John, Jim Kaat Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1970: 10/3.7 1971: 20/8.4 1972: 19/7.4 1973: 29/12.3 1974: 23/10.0 1975: 21/8.7 1976: 20/9.3 1977: 21/8.2 1978: 16/6.2 1979: 13/3.8 1980: 9/2.9 1981: 14/8.2 1982: 1/0.2 1983: 10/4.3 1984: 20/9.2 1985: 23/9.9 1986: 18/7.9 1987: 18/7.5 1988: 4/2.2 1989: 22/7.9 1990: 3/1.3 1992: 5/2.5 Career Win Shares: 339 Career WARP3: 142.0 Would he get my vote? Yes. Blyleven's plight to get into the HOF has been well documented by now. Many voters in the past have immediately written him off because he never won a Cy Young and because he had only two All-Star selections. Of course a player's total number of All-Star selections can be taken with a grain of salt since they are based mostly on what a player did the first three months of the season and with pitcher selections they are heavily influenced by their win/loss record. Blyleven for his career was 150-140 with a 3.47 ERA in the first half of the season but 137-110 with a 3.12 ERA in the second half, so he did his best pitching after the ASB. Another reason why Blyleven has been ignored in the past as well is as you see didn't lead his league in many categories. But for his career he was in the Top 10 ERA ten times, Wins six times, WHIP 11 times, Strikeouts 15 times, Complete Games 12 times, and Shutouts ten times. Nevermind of course he's in the Top 10 all-time in both strikeouts and shutouts. In addition of the eight HOF comps he has only Tom Seaver had a better career ERA+. Many writers are slowly coming around and long time holdouts are now voting for him. He certainly won't get in this year as no backloggers have a chance but within the next five years it appears he will get in.

Dave Parker - Rightfielder Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-1983 Cincinnati Reds 1984-1987 Oakland Athletics 1988-1989 Milwaukee Brewers 1990 California Angels 1991 Toronto Blue Jays 1991 11th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 1997: 17.55% 1998: 24.52% 1999: 16.10% 2000: 20.84% 2001: 16.31% 2002: 13.98% 2003: 10.28% 2004: 10.47% 2005: 12.60% 2006: 14.42% Awards 1977 NL Gold Glove - OF 1978 NL MVP 1978 NL Gold Glove - OF 1979 NL Gold Glove - OF 1985 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1986 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1990 AL Silver Slugger - DH All-Star Selections: 7 (1977, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1985, 1986, 1990) League Leader 1975: Slugging % 1977: Batting Average, Hits, Doubles 1978: Batting Average, Total Bases, Runs Created, Slugging %, OPS, OPS+ 1985: Doubles, RBI, Total Bases 1986: Total Bases Career Ranks Games: 55th Hits: 55th 2B: 31st HR: 80th RBI: 47th TB: 42nd RC: 68th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 26 (68) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 145 (97) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 41.1 (138) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 125.5 (107) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 2 (Tony Perez, Billy Williams) Other Similar Batters: Luis Gonzalez, Harold Baines, Andre Dawson, Al Oliver, Jim Rice, Rusty Staub, Chili Davis, Dwight Evans Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1973: 4/1.4 1974: 6/1.5 1975: 26/8.6 1976: 23/5.8 1977: 33/10.3 1978: 37/8.8 1979: 31/8.5 1980: 17/3.7 1981: 6/1.1 1982: 7/1.8 1983: 12/4.1 1984: 17/3.4 1985: 29/7.9 1986: 20/4.4 1987: 13/3.2 1988: 10/2.2 1989: 15/3.6 1990: 15/4.9 1991: 6/0.9 Career Win Shares: 327 Career WARP3: 86.3 Would he get my vote? No. I'll always have a soft spot for the Cobra for the 1989 postseason where he pissed off all around douche bag Kelly Gruber for his flaps down homerun trot in the ALCS and also hit the first of many homeruns for the A's in the World Series. Also I'll say that for anyone who argues Jim Rice for the HOF they better also argue for Parker as well as I don't see how Rice is so close to being elected yet Parker has no chance at all. That being said I couldn't give him the imaginary vote mainly because when you get past his great peak of the late 70's he had a really ordinary career once the 80's started. Outside of 1985 in that decade he was an average and sometimes below average corner outfielder. Had a rifle for an arm and it appears he did deserve his 1977 Gold Glove (26 assists) but overall he was not a good defensive outfielder.

Alan Trammell - Shortstop Detroit Tigers 1977-1996 6th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 2002: 15.68% 2003: 14.11% 2004: 13.83% 2005: 16.86% 2006: 17.69% Awards 1980 AL Gold Glove - SS 1981 AL Gold Glove - SS 1983 AL Gold Glove - SS 1984 AL Gold Glove - SS 1984 World Series MVP All-Star Selections: 6 (1980, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1990) League Leader None of note Career Ranks None of note Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 48 (505) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 40.4 (146) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 118.5 (116) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 2 (Ryne Sandberg, Pee Wee Reese) Other Similar Batters: Barry Larkin, B.J. Surhoff, Jay Bell, Lou Whitaker, Tony Fernandez, Julio Franco, Buddy Bell, Dave Concepcion Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1977: 0/-0.3 1978: 14/5.5 1979: 13/3.0 1980: 21/7.0 1981: 14/8.7 1982: 16/8.0 1983: 26/10.3 1984: 29/10.5 1985: 16/7.0 1986: 26/10.2 1987: 35/13.1 1988: 23/8.3 1989: 13/6.3 1990: 29/9.7 1991: 12/4.3 1992: 4/1.7 1993: 17/6.3 1994: 3/2.5 1995: 6/1.5 1996: 1/-0.2 Career Win Shares: 318 Career WARP3: 123.3 Would he get my vote? Yes. An excellent peak gives him the nod from me, the first player I've voted "yes" for. Five times he had an OPS+ of 130 or better in a full season, six if you include his 1993 season although that came in 112 games. As you see Trammell is getting little support, not even at the level of Dave Concepcion. What has hurt Trammell the most is probably the era he played in. You could make a legitimate argument that in the last 25 years we've seen seven of the top 10 to 12 greatest shortstops of all-time as we are truly in a golden age for the position. Trammell's peers included Cal Ripken, Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith, and Barry Larkin and since he retired Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter (maybe needs one more good year) have joined that list. When he retired Trammell was without question one of the Top 10 shortstops of all-time. He shouldn't be punished because his career numbers were dwarfed by all-time greats like Ripken and Yount nor should he be punished for the feats of players who came after him like A-Rod and Jeter.

Harold Baines - Designated Hitter/Rightfielder Chicago White Sox 1980-1989, 1996-1997, 2000-2001 Texas Rangers 1989-1990 Oakland Athletics 1990-1992 Baltimore Orioles 1993-1995, 1997-1999, 2000 Cleveland Indians 1999 Awards 1989 AL Silver Slugger - DH All-Star Selections: 6 (1985, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1999) League Leader 1984: Slugging % Career Ranks Games: 17th Hits: 39th TB: 30th 2B: 52nd HR: 50th RBI: 23rd BB: 82nd RC: 44th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 3 (499) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 40 (595) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 43.5 (116) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 66.5 (267) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 3 (Tony Perez, Al Kaline, Billy Williams) Other Similar Batters: Dave Parker, Rusty Staub, Andre Dawson, Dwight Evans, Chili Davis, Fred McGriff, Andres Galarraga Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1980: 8/1.2 1981: 10/5.3 1982: 19/6.9 1983: 20/6.2 1984: 24/9.1 1985: 25/7.8 1986: 20/7.0 1987: 13/3.7 1988: 18/4.4 1989: 18/6.3 1990: 11/4.6 1991: 22/6.5 1992: 15/3.3 1993: 15/4.9 1994: 6/3.0 1995: 11/5.3 1996: 13/5.5 1997: 12/4.1 1998: 8/2.5 1999: 15/4.6 2000: 4/1.2 2001: 0/-1.0 Career Win Shares: 307 Career WARP3: 102.4 Would he get my vote? No. When it comes to players who spent the majority of their career not playing the field I feel they have to hit at the level an excellent first baseman to get in the HOF and Baines is no where close. Sort of like a hitting version of Tommy John in that his career counting numbers are impressive but only because he played a very long time and his peak is just not that impressive. Baines actually was a fairly decent defensive outfielder but knee problems were what forced him to become an everyday DH when he was only 28.

Dale Murphy - Outfielder Atlanta Braves 1976-1990 Philadelphia Phillies 1990-1992 Colorado Rockies 1993 9th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 1999: 19.32% 2000: 23.25% 2001: 18.46% 2002: 14.83% 2003: 11.69% 2004: 8.50% 2005: 10.46% 2006: 10.77% Awards 1982 NL MVP 1982 NL Gold Glove - OF 1982 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1983 NL MVP 1983 NL Gold Glove - OF 1983 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1984 NL Gold Glove - OF 1984 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1985 NL Gold Glove - OF 1985 NL Silver Sluger - OF 1986 NL Gold Glove - OF All-Star Selections: 7 (1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987) League Leader 1982: RBI 1983: RBI, Slugging %, Runs Created, OPS 1984: Homeruns, Slugging %, Total Bases, Runs Created 1985: Homeruns, Runs, Walks, Runs Created 1987: Runs Created Career Ranks Homeruns: 45th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 31 (54) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 147 (90) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 34.3 (209) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 115.5 (121) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 1 (Duke Snider) Other Similar Batters: Joe Carter, Don Baylor, Ron Santo, Gil Hodges, George Foster, Ruben Sierra, Jack Clark, Ellis Burks, Lee May Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1976: 2/0.3 1977: 2/-0.1 1978: 7/1.4 1979: 11/1.5 1980: 28/9.2 1981: 11/4.3 1982: 32/10.2 1983: 32/10.3 1984: 33/9.8 1985: 31/9.3 1986: 22/6.0 1987: 29/11.5 1988: 12/6.8 1989: 14/2.6 1990: 15/5.0 1991: 13/4.7 1992: 0/-0.8 1993: 0/-0.4 Career Win Shares: 294 Career WARP3: 91.6 Would he get my vote? No. If I had a real vote I'd be very tempted to give Murphy a sympathy vote as it would be nice to see him get more support and he's actually lost support over the years, nearly falling off the ballot in 2004. With Jim Rice I said he needed two more good seasons but with Murphy I think he needed just one more. He had a very good peak, better than Rice's, as he was just incredible from 1982-1985 but he was washed up by age 32. Although he did win six Gold Gloves at a premium defensive position in centerfield, he was not nearly as good as those six Gold Gloves indicate. He was decent but not great defensively.

Tommy John - Starting Pitcher Cleveland Indians 1963-1964 Chicago White Sox 1965-1971 Los Angeles Dodgers 1972-1978 New York Yankees 1979-1982, 1986-1989 California Angels 1982-1985 Oakland Athletics 1985 13th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 1995: 21.30% 1996: 21.70% 1997: 20.51% 1998: 27.27% 1999: 18.71% 2000: 27.05% 2001: 28.35% 2002: 26.91% 2003: 23.39% 2004: 21.94% 2005: 23.84% 2006: 29.61% Awards None All-Star Selections: 4 (1968, 1978, 1979, 1980) League Leader 1966: Shutouts 1967: Shutouts 1974: Win/Loss % 1980: Shutouts 1982: BB/9 Career Ranks Wins: 25th Games: 45th Innings: 19th Strikeouts: 47th Shutouts: 26th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 8 (281) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 137 (116) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 44.0 (53) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 111.0 (76) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: 6 (Robin Roberts, Fergie Jenkins, Early Wynn, Burleigh Grimes, Don Sutton, Eppa Rixey) Other Similar Pitchers: Jim Kaat, Bert Byleven, Tom Glavine, Tony Mullane Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1963: 1/0.1 1964: 2/1.3 1965: 12/4.5 1966: 15/5.7 1967: 11/4.9 1968: 15/6.6 1969: 17/6.4 1970: 17/7.3 1971: 10/4.0 1972: 11/3.9 1973: 15/4.5 1974: 11/4.1 1976: 13/3.7 1977: 19/6.5 1978: 12/3.4 1979: 23/8.4 1980: 19/6.3 1981: 10/5.3 1982: 12/5.7 1983: 10/3.8 1984: 7/2.7 1985: 1/0.1 1986: 6/2.2 1987: 13/4.0 1988: 7/3.0 1989: 0/0.0 Career Win Shares: 289 Career WARP3: 108.7 Would he get my vote? No. John's entire case is based on his career counting numbers as he pitched for a very, very long time and usually at an above average to good performance level. But as I've mentioned before I favor peak over career and John's peak is seriously lacking. One knock against Win Shares is that it can underrate pitchers but it is hard to view someone who had only one season in 26 years where he had 20+ Win Shares as a HOF. Besides he already has his place in history by having a surgery named after him so he should be content with that.

Jim Rice - Leftfielder Boston Red Sox 1974-1989 13th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 1995: 29.78% 1996: 35.32% 1997: 37.63% 1998: 42.92% 1999: 29.38% 2000: 51.50% 2001: 57.86% 2002: 55.08% 2003: 52.22% 2004: 54.55% 2005: 59.50% 2006: 64.80% Awards 1978 AL MVP 1983 AL Silver Slugger - OF 1984 AL Silver Slugger - OF All-Star Selections: 8 (1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986) League Leader 1977: Homeruns, Total Bases, Slugging % 1978: Hits, Homeruns, RBI, Triples, Total Bases, Runs Created, Slugging %, OPS, OPS+ 1979: Total Bases 1983: Homeruns, RBI, Total Bases Career Ranks Hits: 93rd HR: 52nd RBI: 52nd TB: 63rd SLG: 89th RC: 79th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 33 (49) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 176 (56) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 42.9 (122) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 146.5 (82) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 4 (Orlando Cepeda, Duke Snider, Billy Williams, Willie Stargell) Other Similar Batters: Andres Galarraga, Ellis Burks, Joe Carter, Dave Parker, Luis Gonzalez, Chili Davis Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1974: 1/0.1 1975: 20/4.8 1976: 17/4.2 1977: 26/7.4 1978: 36/10.4 1979: 28/8.2 1980: 16/4.9 1981: 15/6.3 1982: 21/6.4 1983: 24/9.1 1984: 17/7.3 1985: 14/5.4 1986: 28/9.4 1987: 8/2.7 1988: 9/2.6 1989: 2/0.1 Career Win Shares: 282 Career WARP3: 89.2 Would he get my vote? No. A few years ago I was on the Rice bandwagon but I have since jumped off. He was fabulous from 1977-1979 but when you look at the rest of the career there's only two other great seasons and the offensive standards for a being HOF corner outfielder are almost as high as first basemen. He also benefitted from playing his entire career in Fenway Park and he had a large home/road split posting an OPS 131 points higher (.920 to .789) at Fenway than on the road. I think he needed two more good years to push him over the top but his skills eroded rapidly in his mid-30s so much so that he's become the poster boy for a player who has a sudden decline in production in their mid-30s. If he had been a great defensive outfielder or a great base stealer that could have also pushed him over the top but he was neither. I will say that he seems a tad underrated by WARP3. He is gaining support from the writers and I could see him getting a big bump in one his final two years on the ballot although he obviously no chance this year. There's a case to be made for him and I won't have a problem if he ever gets in but he doesn't get my imaginary vote.

Tony Fernandez - Shortstop Toronto Blue Jays 1983-1990, 1993, 1998-1999, 2001 San Diego Padres 1991-1992 New York Mets 1993 Cincinnati Reds 1994 New York Yankees 1995 Cleveland Indians 1997 Milwaukee Brewers 2001 Awards 1986 AL Gold Glove - SS 1987 AL Gold Glove - SS 1988 AL Gold Glove - SS 1989 AL Gold Glove - SS All-Star Selections: 5 (1986, 1987, 1989, 1992, 1999) League Leader 1990: Triples Career Ranks None of note Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 3 (499) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 51 (477) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 31.5 (254) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 74.0 (225) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 3 (Red Schoendienst, Billy Herman, Pee Wee Reese) Other Similar Batters: Dick Bartell, Alvin Dark, Dave Concepcion, Jimmie Dykes, Alan Trammell, Garry Templeton, Omar Vizquel Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1983: 1/0.3 1984: 6/2.7 1985: 21/8.9 1986: 24/9.1 1987: 24/10.1 1988: 25/8.6 1989: 20/8.2 1990: 25/10.6 1991: 21/7.5 1992: 15/6.1 1993: 20/8.1 1994: 14/6.0 1995: 9/2.9 1997: 11/3.6 1998: 19/6.6 1999: 20/5.6 2001: 1/0.5 Career Win Shares: 280 Career WARP3: 105.4 Would he get my vote? No. Not a HOF but I think a much better player than most people remember, including myself, and I think I'd rate him slightly better than Dave Concepcion. An excellent fielder during his prime and almost always a good hitter for a shortstop, only once finishing with an OPS+ of under 90 in a full season, and finished with a career OPS+ of 101. Overlooked I think for several factors as he brokeout when Cal Ripken and Alan Trammell were already established with his power numbers paling in comparison to those two. Then in his 30's he bounced around from a different team almost every year including missing one season due to injury and spending another in Japan. A knock against him is that even though he had 246 career steals he was a poor base stealer being thrown out 36% of the time.

Steve Garvey - First Baseman Los Angeles Dodgers 1969-1982 San Diego Padres 1983-1987 Final year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 1993: 41.61% 1994: 36.48% 1995: 42.61% 1996: 37.23% 1997: 35.31% 1998: 41.23% 1999: 30.18% 2000: 32.06% 2001: 34.17% 2002: 28.39% 2003: 27.82% 2004: 24.31% 2005: 20.54% 2006: 25.96% Awards 1974 NL MVP 1974 NL Gold Glove - 1B 1975 NL Gold Glove - 1B 1976 NL Gold Glove - 1B 1977 NL Gold Glove - 1B 1978 NLCS MVP 1984 NLCS MVP All-Star Selections: 10 (1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1984, 1985) League Leader 1978: Hits 1980: Hits Career Ranks Games: 86th Hits: 70th Doubles: 91st RBI: 89th Total Bases: 78th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 12 (189) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 142 (107) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 31.5 (254) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 130.5 (101) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in the HOF: 1 (Orlando Cepeda) Other Similar Batters: Al Oliver, Ruben Sierra, John Olerud, Bill Buckner, Mickey Vernon, Cecil Cooper, Chili Davis, Will Clark, Mark Grace Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1969: 0/0.0 1970: 2/1.0 1971: 6/1.9 1972: 8/2.4 1973: 11/2.4 1974: 27/7.1 1975: 25/9.1 1976: 26/9.2 1977: 21/6.1 1978: 25/7.6 1979: 22/8.0 1980: 22/6.9 1981: 13/3.9 1982: 15/3.4 1983: 14/3.9 1984: 15/4.4 1985: 17/5.7 1986: 10/1.3 1987: 0/-0.3 Career Win Shares: 279 Career WARP3: 84.1 Would he get my vote? No. Was a good player for a long time but he's purely a career case as his peak was unimpressive especially for a first baseman. Had he been a slick fielding, middle infielder then he'd probably be a HOF. One could argue in his favor that his numbers were hurt playing the majority of his career in Dodger Stadium but he had only a 116 OPS+ for his career and never finished in the league's Top 10 in that category which simply isn't going to cut it for a first baseman.

Jose Canseco - Rightfielder/Designated Hitter Oakland Athletics 1985-1992, 1997 Texas Rangers 1992-1994 Boston Red Sox 1995-1996 Toronto Blue Jays 1998 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1999-2000 New York Yankees 2000 Chicago White Sox 2001 Awards 1986 AL Rookie of the Year 1988 AL MVP 1988 AL Silver Slugger - OF 1990 AL Silver Slugger - OF 1991 AL Silver Slugger - OF 1998 AL Silver Slugger - DH All-Star Selections: 6 (1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1999) League Leader 1988: Homeruns, RBI, Slugging %, OPS+ 1991: Homeruns Career Ranks Homeruns: 30th RBI: 61st SLG: 66th AB/HR: 21st Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 15 (149) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 93 (245) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 38.1 (166) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 103.0 (138) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 3 (Willie Stargell, Duke Snider, Willie McCovey) Other Similar Batters: Jim Thome, Gil Hodges, Dale Murphy, Juan Gonzalez, Jack Clark, Carlos Delgado, Tino Martinez Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1985: 4/1.0 1986: 21/5.1 1987: 17/6.6 1988: 39/12.5 1989: 14/3.7 1990: 26/8.6 1991: 31/9.4 1992: 16/6.1 1993: 8/1.5 1994: 16/6.9 1995: 15/4.9 1996: 13/4.7 1997: 8/2.5 1998: 15/4.8 1999: 13/4.8 2000: 8/2.5 2001: 8/2.1 Career Win Shares: 272 Career WARP3: 87.8 Would he get my vote? No. Fuck him.

Dave Concepcion - Shortstop Cincinnati Reds 1970-1988 14th year on the ballot Past HOF Vote Results 1994: 6.81% 1995: 9.35% 1996: 13.40% 1997: 12.68% 1998: 16.91% 1999: 11.87% 2000: 13.43% 2001: 14.37% 2002: 11.86% 2003: 11.09% 2004: 11.26% 2005: 10.66% 2006: 12.50% Awards 1974 NL Gold Glove - SS 1975 NL Gold Glove - SS 1976 NL Gold Glove - SS 1977 NL Gold Glove - SS 1979 NL Gold Glove - SS 1981 NL Silver Slugger - SS 1982 NL Silver Slugger - SS All-Star Selections: 9 (1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982) League Leader None of note Career Ranks Games: 48th Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 25 (863) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 29.1 (311) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 106.5 (136) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 3 (Bobby Wallace, Pee Wee Reese, Luis Aparicio) Other Similar Batters: Omar Vizquel, Tony Fernandez, Bert Campaneris, Alan Trammell, Royce Clayton, Garry Templeton, Frank White Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1970: 5/1.9 1971: 4/0.9 1972: 6/3.5 1973: 16/5.9 1974: 25/10.7 1975: 19/8.0 1976: 23/10.2 1977: 19/8.7 1978: 25/8.8 1979: 24/10.2 1980: 17/6.1 1981: 20/9.7 1982: 17/8.3 1983: 8/4.2 1984: 11/3.1 1985: 12/2.8 1986: 8/2.4 1987: 8/3.6 1988: 2/0.8 Career Win Shares: 269 Career WARP3: 109.7 Would he get my vote? No. I did give him more thought than I originally anticipated mainly due to his strong WARP3 number but he seems overrated by that measure. He was the best shortstop of his era which is definately worthy of some extra credit but he played in a dreadful era for shortstops. His career OPS+ is actually one point higher than Ozzie Smith's but Smith had 56 more Win Shares and 39.6 more WARP3 despite only playing a half season longer. He had some very good years in his prime but the level of performance just wasn't high enough to warrant a spot in the HOF.

Bobby Bonilla - Third Baseman/Rightfielder Chicago White Sox 1986 Pittsburgh Pirates 1986-1991 New York Mets 1992-1995, 1999 Baltimore Orioles 1995-1996 Florida Marlins 1997-1998 Los Angeles Dodgers 1998 Atlanta Braves 2000 St. Louis Cardinals 2001 Awards 1988 NL Silver Slugger - 3B 1990 NL Silver Slugger - OF 1991 NL Silver Slugger - OF All-Star Selections: 6 (1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1995) League Leader 1991: Doubles, Runs Created Career Ranks None of note Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 3 (499) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 96 (229) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 32.0 (239) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 64.5 (278) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Fred Lynn, Paul O'Neill, Dal Ennis, Reggie Smith, Ken Boyer, Robin Ventura, George Hendrick, Todd Zeile, Gary Matthews, Bob Johnson Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1986: 10/3.5 1987: 16/4.4 1988: 31/8.5 1989: 29/11.7 1990: 23/7.4 1991: 31/10.5 1992: 18/5.8 1993: 16/5.7 1994: 19/7.0 1995: 22/9.3 1996: 19/5.2 1997: 21/5.4 1998: 5/0.7 1999: 0/-0.1 2000: 6/-0.1 2001: 1/0.1 Career Win Shares: 267 Career WARP3: 85.1 Would he get my vote? No. Solid four year peak from 1988-1991 but for me personally I consider his 1991 season to be the only year where he was among the elite players in the game. Of course cashed in on that season but could never live up to the hype coming into New York and fell far below it. Good hitter but not the cornerstone of a lineup that he was paid to be. Poor defensively regardless of the position he played.

Don Mattingly - First Baseman New York Yankees 1982-1995 7th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 2001: 28.16% 2002: 20.34% 2003: 13.71% 2004: 12.85% 2005: 11.43% 2006: 12.30% Awards 1985 AL MVP 1985 AL Gold Glove - 1B 1985 AL Silver Slugger - 1B 1985 ML Sporting News Player of the Year 1986 AL Gold Glove - 1B 1986 AL Silver Slugger - 1B 1987 AL Gold Glove - 1B 1987 AL Silver Slugger - 1B 1988 AL Gold Glove - 1B 1989 AL Gold Glove - 1B 1991 AL Gold Glove - 1B 1992 AL Gold Glove - 1B 1993 AL Gold Glove - 1B 1994 AL Gold Glove - 1B All-Star Selections: 6 (1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989) League Leader 1984: Batting Average, Hits, Doubles, OPS+ 1985: Doubles, RBI, Total Bases 1986: Hits, Doubles, Total Bases, Runs Created, Slugging %, OPS, OPS+ Career Ranks Doubles: 86th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 23 (84) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 111 (185) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 34.1 (211) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 133.5 (95) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 2 (Kirby Puckett, Jim Bottomley) Other Similar Batters: Cecil Cooper, Garret Anderson, Wally Joyner, Hal McRae, Will Clark, Tony Oliva, Jeff Conine, Keith Hernandez Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1982: 0/0.1 1983: 7/1.3 1984: 29/11.7 1985: 32/11.7 1986: 34/12.7 1987: 27/9.1 1988: 24/6.4 1989: 26/7.4 1990: 7/2.1 1991: 14/4.0 1992: 20/7.3 1993: 20/6.0 1994: 15/6.0 1995: 8/4.7 Career Win Shares: 263 Career WARP3: 89.1 Would he get my vote? No. He was unbelievable from 1984-1986, very good from 1987-1989, and then just very ordinary from 1990-1995. His peak was just too short and back problems took away his power as he hit over 20 homeruns only once in the final eight years of his career. He was an excellent defensive first baseman but there's only so much of a bonus you can give for first base defense.

Paul O'Neill - Rightfielder Cincinnati Reds 1985-1992 New York Yankees 1993-2001 Awards None All-Star Selections: 5 (1991, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998) League Leader 1994: Batting Average Career Ranks Doubles: 75th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 4 (401) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 45 (538) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 36.9 (184) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 70.5 (246) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in the HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Bobby Bonilla, Del Ennis, Fred Lynn, Bernie Williams, Reggie Smith, Ruben Sierra, George Hendrick, Ken Boyer, Bob Johnson, Will Clark Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1985: 1/0.1 1986: 0/0.0 1987: 5/1.1 1988: 13/5.2 1989: 18/5.6 1990: 16/5.0 1991: 19/8.6 1992: 13/6.4 1993: 15/7.1 1994: 23/11.5 1995: 18/6.8 1996: 22/8.7 1997: 28/9.2 1998: 26/9.8 1999: 16/5.9 2000: 13/4.4 2001: 13/3.1 Career Win Shares: 259 Career WARP3: 98.6 Would he get my vote? No. If he could have hit as well as he did in his 30's while he was in his 20's he might have had a case. Went from being a unspectacular corner outfielder with the Reds into a damn good hitter with the Yankees but is no where close to being a HOF. What am I'm trying to figure out is how at age 38 did he steal 22 bases and only be caught three times?

Wally Joyner - First Baseman California/Anaheim Angels 1986-1991, 2001 Kansas City Royals 1992-1995 San Diego Padres 1996-1999 Atlanta Braves 2000 Awards None All-Star Selections: 1 (1986) League Leader None of note Career Ranks None of note Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 16 (1106) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 24.9 (482) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 27.5 (603) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Hal McRae, Jeff Conine, Chris Chambliss, Keith Hernandez, Cecil Cooper, Don Mattingly, Felipe Alou, Ken Singleton, Dusty Baker, George Hendrick Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Leven (WARP3) 1986: 21/7.5 1987: 22/8.4 1988: 22/7.7 1989: 19/6.9 1990: 9/2.6 1991: 25/8.2 1992: 14/4.7 1993: 17/7.3 1994: 11/5.0 1995: 18/6.9 1996: 16/4.1 1997: 21/5.2 1998: 22/3.9 1999: 7/2.4 2000: 7/1.0 2001: 2/0.6 Career Win Shares: 253 Career WARP3: 82.3 Would he get my vote? No. I'm exercising my one year, steroid user boycott when it comes to Joyner...okay maybe not. Nice little hitter but "nice little hitter" isn't a ringing endorsement for a first baseman let alone one who played in the era Joyner did. Great start to his career and I have faint memories after Mark McGwire's horrific 1991 season of A's fans hoping they would sign Joyner as a free agent and release McGwire. Good thing team's typically don't listen to their fans.

Albert Belle - Leftfielder Cleveland Indians 1989-1996 Chicago White Sox 1997-1998 Baltimore Orioles 1999-2000 2nd year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 2006: 7.7% Awards 1993 AL Silver Slugger - OF 1994 AL Silver Slugger - OF 1995 ML Sporting News Player of the Year 1995 AL Silver Slugger - OF 1996 AL Silver Slugger - OF 1998 AL Silver Slugger - OF All-Star Selections: 5 (1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997) League Leader 1993: RBI 1994: Total Bases 1995: Runs, Doubles, Homeruns, Total Bases, Slugging Pct. 1996: RBI 1998: Total Bases, Slugging Pct., OPS, OPS+, Runs Created Career Ranks HR: 54th SLG%: 19th OPS: 35th OPS+: 58th AB/HR: 22nd Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 28 (62) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 137 (117) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 36.1 (187) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 134.5 (94) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 1 (Hank Greenberg) Other Similar Batters: Juan Gonzalez, Carlos Delgado, Jim Edmonds, Jason Giambi, Moises Alou, Vladimir Guerrero, Dick Allen, Rocky Colavito, Tim Salmon Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacmenet Level (WARP3) 1989: 6/0.9 1990: 0/-0.1 1991: 15/4.9 1992: 16/5.3 1993: 27/10.5 1994: 24/11.4 1995: 30/13.7 1996: 31/11.3 1997: 18/5.6 1998: 37/12.3 1999: 24/9.9 2000: 15/4.2 Career Win Shares: 243 Career WARP3: 90.0 Would he get my vote? No. From a peak standpoint, Belle has a serious case. He was one the most feared and best hitters of the 90's. Four times he posted an OPS+ of better than 150, six times in the Top 10 in the league in slugging, eight times in total bases, nine times in RBI, and nine times in homeruns. Although he isn't listed as one of Belle's comps you can bring up Ralph Kiner who is in the HOF, who like Belle had a very short career and was a dominating power hitter while he was active. But I personally don't view Kiner as a HOF and even though I weigh peak a little more than a player's career I just don't think Belle lasted quite long enough to be a HOF. If his hip had held up just for a couple of more good years I think it would have pushed him over the top. I may also had given him my imaginary vote if he had been a good defensive outfielder but he was below average at best. It was actually a mild surprise he got enough votes last year to stay on the ballot given his on the field and off the field persona but with a much deeper ballot this year I doubt he makes it to 2008.

Ken Caminiti - Third Baseman Houston Astros 1987-1994, 1999-2000 San Diego Padres 1995-1998 Texas Rangers 2001 Atlanta Braves 2001 Awards 1995 NL Gold Glove - 3B 1996 NL MVP 1996 NL Gold Glove - 3B 1997 NL Gold Glove - 3B All-Star Selections: 3 (1994, 1996, 1997) League Leader None of note Career Ranks None of note Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 28 (802) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 24.8 (488) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 38.0 (462) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Travis Fryman, Doug DeCinces, Larry Parrish, Bret Boone, Richie Hebner, Bobby Thompson, Ben Ogilvie, Johnny Callison, Bobby Murcer, Gus Bell Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1987: 3/1.1 1988: 1/-0.2 1989: 25/7.9 1990: 11/3.8 1991: 17/7.1 1992: 21/7.4 1993: 14/4.9 1994: 16/7.6 1995: 24/9.8 1996: 38/12.9 1997: 26/9.5 1998: 20/4.1 1999: 10/3.5 2000: 9/2.7 2001: 4/1.1 Career Win Shares: 242 Career WARP3: 83.1 Would he get my vote? No. Even if Caminiti had never used steroids and hadn't become a cocaine addict and died, he still is no where close to being a HOF where bringing up those issues would be relevant to his candidacy. Had a good peak although his 1996 season where he won the MVP stands out as a fluke and his career counting numbers are underwhelming.

Jack Morris - Starting Pitcher Detroit Tigers 1977-1990 Minnesota Twins 1991 Toronto Blue Jays 1992-1993 Cleveland Indians 1994 8th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 2000: 22.24% 2001: 19.61% 2002: 20.55% 2003: 22.78% 2004: 26.28% 2005: 33.33% 2006: 41.15% Awards 1981 AL Sporting News Pitcher of the Year 1991 World Series MVP All-Star Selections: 5 (1981, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1991) League Leader 1981: Wins 1983: Innings Pitched, Strikeouts 1986: Shutouts 1990: Complete Games 1992: Wins Career Ranks Wins: 40th IP: 48th K: 31st GS: 34th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 20 (88) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 193 (46) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 39.0 (73) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 122.5 (64) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: 6 (Bob Gibson, Red Ruffing, Amos Rusie, Burleigh Grimes, Bob Feller, Jim Bunning) Other Similar Pitchers: Dennis Martinez, Tom Glavine, Luis Tiant, Chuck Finley Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacmenet Level (WARP3) 1977: 3/1.0 1978: 4/1.1 1979: 17/6.7 1980: 14/5.3 1981: 16/6.5 1982: 14/4.8 1983: 20/7.6 1984: 14/5.4 1985: 19/8.1 1986: 20/8.3 1987: 21/8.8 1988: 12/4.7 1989: 4/2.4 1990: 8/3.0 1991: 18/7.1 1992: 15/5.7 1993: 1/0.6 1994: 5/2.8 Career Win Shares: 225 Career WARP3: 89.8 Would he get my vote? No. Morris was incredibly durable, throwing 240+ innings in 11 seasons, and very consistent but was rarely dominant. He never posted an ERA under 3 in his career which is fairness to him was in part to pitching in Tiger Stadium but his career ERA+ of 105 is very unimpressive. He does get a bonus for two excellent World Series but he also had an awful postseason all around in 1992. Now his comp pitchers paint him as a Hall of Famer as he has six current HOFs and one futuer HOF in Tom Glavine but Morris' ERA+ is worse than all of them with only Burleigh Grimes being close at 107 and he's a questionable HOF. His #1 comp is Dennis Martinez who is a very good comp for him but like El Presidente, Morris is not a HOF.

Eric Davis - Outfielder Cincinnati Reds 1984-1991, 1996 Los Angeles Dodgers 1992-1993 Detroit Tigers 1993-1994 Baltimore Orioles 1997-1998 St. Louis Cardinals 1999-2000 San Francisco Giants 2001 Awards 1987 NL Gold Glove - OF 1988 NL Gold Glove - OF 1989 NL Gold Glove - OF All-Star Selections: 2 (1987, 1989) League Leader None of note Career Ranks AB/HR: 83rd Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 61 (398) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 26.8 (395) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 27.5 (603) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 1 (Larry Doby) Other Similar Batters: Kirk Gibson, Jeromy Burnitz, Darryl Strawberry, Raul Mondesi, Roger Maris, Bill Nicholson, Reggie Sanders, Danny Tartabull, Ray Lankford Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1984: 7/2.2 1985: 5/1.6 1986: 25/7.1 1987: 30/11.2 1988: 27/7.7 1989: 26/7.5 1990: 17/5.8 1991: 8/3.2 1992: 6/1.2 1993: 12/5.8 1994: 1/0.4 1996: 22/6.8 1997: 6/1.4 1998: 18/6.9 1999: 5/1.0 2000: 8/2.1 2001: 0/0.1 Career Win Shares: 224 Career WARP3: 72.0 Would he get my vote? No. Yet another player on this year's ballot who's career was wrecked by injuries. From 1986 to 1989 he posted OPS+ of 143, 155, 139, and 154 respecitvely while playing Gold Glove defense in center and being a force on the base paths. Even during these years when he was at the top of his game he had nagging injuries and he never played more than 135 games in a season at any point in his career.

Orel Hershiser - Starting Pitcher Los Angeles Dodgers 1983-1994, 2000 Cleveland Indians 1995-1997 San Francisco Giants 1998 New York Mets 1999 2nd year on the ballot Past HOF Ballot Results 2006: 11.2% Awards 1988 NL Cy Young 1988 NL Sporting News Pitcher of the Year 1988 NL Gold Glove - P 1988 NLCS MVP 1988 World Series MVP 1995 ALCS MVP All-Star Selections: 3 (1987, 1988, 1989) League Leader 1984: Shutouts 1985: Winning % 1987: Innings Pitched 1988: Wins, Winning %, Innings Pitched, Complete Games, Shutouts 1989: Innings Pitched Career Ranks Wins: 100th Strikeouts: 58th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 20 (88) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 129 (130) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 34.0 (101) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 90.5 (115) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: 2 (Catfish Hunter, Dazzy Vance) Other Similar Pitchers: Bob Welch, Milt Pappas, Kevin Brown, Vida Blue, Jim Perry, Dave Stieb, Silver King, Bob Shawkey Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1983: 0/0 1984: 18/6.8 1985: 23/7.7 1986: 12/5.1 1987: 21/9.1 1988: 25/10.3 1989: 21/9.7 1990: 1/0.2 1991: 8/3.1 1992: 8/4.5 1993: 13/5.6 1994: 7/3.2 1995: 13/6.4 1996: 14/5.9 1997: 11/4.5 1998: 7/2.9 1999: 8/3.0 2000: 0/-1.7 Career Win Shares: 210 Career WARP3: 86.2 Would he get my vote? No. Looked like he was on his way to a Hall of Fame career at the conclusion of the 80's but a torn rotator cuff in April of 1990 cost him over a year and he was never the same pitcher after that. Like with Bret Saberhagen throwing over 250 innings three straight years did not end being a good idea. Hershiser was arguably a better pitcher than his HOF comp Catfish Hunter but Hunter was vastly overrated and a very dubious HOF inductee, while Hershiser was not at the level of Dazzy Vance.

Could it finally be, someone who I'd actually vote for on my imaginary ballot? Rich "Goose" Gossage - Closer Chicago White Sox 1972-1976 Pittsburgh Pirates 1977 New York Yankees 1978-1983, 1989 San Diego Padres 1984-1987 Chicago Cubs 1988 San Francisco Giants 1989 Texas Rangers 1991 Oakland Athletics 1992-1993 Seattle Mariners 1994 8th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 2000: 33.27% 2001: 44.27% 2002: 43.01% 2003: 42.14% 2004: 40.74% 2005: 55.23% 2006: 64.61% Awards 1978 AL Rolaids Relief Award All-Star Selections: 9 (1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985) League Leader 1975: Saves 1978: Saves 1980: Saves Career Ranks Saves: 17th Games: 10th K/9: 40th ERA+: 55th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 9 (248) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 41 (580) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 19.0 (312) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 126.0 (61) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: 2 (Rollie Fingers, Hoyt Wilhelm) Other Similar Pitchers: Lindy McDaniel, Stu Miller, Gene Garber, Kent Tekulve, Tug McGraw, Sparky Lyle, Roy Face, Mike Marshall Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1972: 3/0.2 1973: 0/-0.5 1974: 4/1.9 1975: 23/10.5 1976: 10/4.7 1977: 26/10.5 1978: 20/7.8 1979: 11/4.0 1980: 18/6.2 1981: 12/5.9 1982: 17/7.4 1983: 16/7.1 1984: 15/5.1 1985: 15/4.4 1986: 5/1.5 1987: 7/3.3 1988: 4/1.3 1989: 5/1.4 1991: 3/1.8 1992: 2/1.1 1993: 3/1.8 1994: 4/2.0 Career Win Shares: 223 Career WARP3: 89.5 Would he get my vote? ...No. Like I said in the Lee Smith entry I just have a hard time viewing someone who spent their career primarily as a reliever as being a true Hall of Famer. I absolutely agree that Gossage is much more deserving of enshrinement than that of Bruce Sutter. What's funny is that if Gossage had retired at 35 like Sutter did he probably would already be in the HOF as his greatness as a closer would have been remembered better by the short attention span of the writers. Gossage retired nine years after his last good season as a closer after bouncing around several teams as a moderately effective, situational reliever and he gets unfairly penalized for it. I will not argue with anyone who says Gossage deserves to get in and I will have no problem if he ever gets in, which I think will happen eventually after the big jump in support he's received the last couple of years. But on my imaginary ballot I just can't put him down.

Devon White - Centerfielder California Angels 1985-1990 Toronto Blue Jays 1991-1995 Florida Marlins 1996-1997 Arizona Diamondbacks 1998 Los Angeles Dodgers 1999-2000 Milwaukee Brewers 2001 Awards 1988 AL Gold Glove - OF 1989 AL Gold Glove - OF 1991 AL Gold Glove - OF 1992 AL Gold Glove - OF 1993 AL Gold Glove - OF 1994 AL Gold Glove - OF 1995 AL Gold Glove - OF All-Star Selections: 3 (1989, 1993, 1998) League Leader None of note Career Ranks None of note Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 41 (581) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 21.3 (651) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 34.5 (502) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Amos Otis, Claudell Washington, Brady Anderson, Chet Lemon, Marquis Grissom, Johnny Callison, Felipe Alou, Cesar Cedeno, Johnny Damon, Gary Matthews Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1985: 0/0.1 1986: 2/0.6 1987: 17/7.1 1988: 11/5.0 1989: 14/6.2 1990: 7/3.5 1991: 24/10.3 1992: 19/7.5 1993: 20/8.8 1994: 11/5.4 1995: 12/4.3 1996: 18/5.7 1997: 9/2.6 1998: 18/5.1 1999: 12/3.4 2000: 2/0.4 2001: 11/3.1 Career Win Shares: 207 Career WARP3: 79.2 Would he get my vote? No. During his prime he was an outstanding defensive centerfielder, very deserving for most of the Gold Gloves he won, and a good base stealer but outside of 1991 was never that much of hitter. Only had a career OBP of .319, never hit higher than .283, and struck out a lot which is not a good combination. His similar batters make him look better than he was as only Marquis Grissom had a lower career OPS+.