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Now we get to the our first holdover and someone who has received some decent support. Lee Smith - Closer Chicago Cubs 1980-1987 Boston Red Sox 1988-1990 St. Louis Cardinals 1990-1993 New York Yankees 1993 Baltimore Orioles 1994 California Angels 1995-1996 Cincinnati Reds 1996 Montreal Expos 1997 5th year on the ballot Past HOF Voting Results 2003: 42.34% 2004: 36.56% 2005: 38.8% 2006: 45.0% Awards 1991 NL Rolaids Relief Award 1992 NL Rolaids Relief Award 1994 AL Rolaids Relief Award All-Star Selections: 7 (1983, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995) League Leader 1983: Saves 1991: Saves 1992: Saves 1994: Saves Career Ranks Saves: 2nd Games: 8th H/9: 97th K/9: 11th K/BB: 61st ERA+: 30th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 12 (178) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 48 (512) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 13.0 (578) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 135.0 (50) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: 2 (Rollie Fingers, Bruce Sutter) Other Similar Pitchers: Jeff Reardon, John Franco, Roberto Hernandez, Trevor Hoffman, Rick Aguilera, Kent Tekulve, Jose Mesa Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1980: 2/0.7 1981: 4/2.5 1982: 13/4.5 1983: 19/8.3 1984: 15/4.9 1985: 17/5.9 1986: 17/7.2 1987: 15/7.4 1988: 12/4.7 1989: 11/3.9 1990: 17/6.2 1991: 15/6.5 1992: 12/4.2 1993: 9/3.4 1994: 8/4.9 1995: 8/5.0 1996: 4/2.1 1997: 0/0.1 Career Win Shares: 198 Career WARP3: 82.2 Would he get my vote? No. I personally just have a hard time thinking someone who spent their career almost exclusively as a short reliever as being a HOF. As I've mentioned before a closer can rarely ever be considered the most valuable player on a team. Even though he retired as the all-time saves leader Smith was definately a notch below the elite closers in baseball history (Fingers, Eckersley, Rivera, Gossage, Sutter, Quisenberry, Wilhelm, Hoffman) and by the time he reached his mid-30s he was just padding his career save totals.

Bret Saberhagen - Starting Pitcher Kansas City Royals 1984-1991 New York Mets 1992-1995 Colorado Rockies 1995 Boston Red Sox 1997-1999, 2001 Awards 1985 AL Cy Young 1985 Sporting News AL Pitcher of the Year 1985 World Series MVP 1989 AL Cy Young 1989 Sporting News AL Pitcher of the Year 1989 AL Gold Glove - P All-Star Selections: 3 (1987, 1990, 1994) League Leader 1985: WHIP, BB/9, K/BB Ratio 1989: Wins, ERA, Win %, WHIP, Innings, Complete Games, K/BB Ratio, ERA+ 1994: BB/9, K/BB Ratio Career Ranks WHIP: 47th BB/9: 35th K: 97th K/BB: 10th ERA+: 56th Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 20 (88) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 124 (139) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 32.0 (123) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 70.5 (158) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in the HOF: None Top 10 Similar Pitchers: John Candelaria, Ron Guidry, Ed Lopat, Jimmy Key, Ed Morris, Scott Sanderson, Doug Drabek, Bill Gullickson, Dave McNally, Rick Rhoden Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacment Level (WARP3) 1984: 10/4.1 1985: 24/10.2 1986: 8/4.4 1987: 23/10.1 1988: 15/6.6 1989: 28/11.7 1990: 7/5.0 1991: 16/7.6 1992: 5/2.5 1993: 9/4.5 1994: 16/8.7 1995: 8/3.3 1997: 0/0.1 1998: 12/5.5 1999: 12/6.3 2001: 0/0.2 Career Win Shares: 193 Career WARP3: 90.7 Would he get my vote? No. At age 25 he had already had two Cy Young's and a World Series MVP but three straight years where he through over 250 innings took it's toll on his arm as he would only throw enough innings three more times in his career to qualify for the ERA title. Certainly a great "What If?" case if he could have stayed healthy. When he was healthy he pitched like a HOF but didn't pitch enough to warrant consideration.

Jay Buhner - Rightfielder New York Yankees 1987-1988 Seattle Mariners 1988-2001 Awards 1996 AL Gold Glove - OF All-Star Selections: 1 (1996) League Leader None of note Career Ranks AB per HR: 31st Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 31 (733) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 25.8 (436) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 34.5 (502) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Hank Sauer, Jeromy Burnitz, Roger Maris, Cecil Fielder, Darryl Strawberry, Bob Allison, Danny Tartabull, Eric Davis, Dean Palmer, Jesse Barfield Year-by-Year Win Shars & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1987: 0/0.0 1988: 7/3.4 1989: 8/2.0 1990: 6/1.7 1991: 13/7.0 1992: 16/6.8 1993: 22/7.7 1994: 13/7.7 1995: 16/5.0 1996: 22/6.3 1997: 19/8.0 1998: 8/2.4 1999: 8/1.8 2000: 16/4.3 2001: 0/0.3 Career Win Shares: 174 Career WARP3: 64.6 Would he get my vote? No. Buhner's trade for Ken Phelps is a part of pop culture thanks to Seinfeld but he certainly won't be part of the HOF. Very consistent peformer when he was a line-up but he had several injuries at various parts of his career and only played more than 100 games once during the final four years of his career. Even if he had been healthy it's unlikely he would have kept up a level of performance high enough to warrant HOF consideration. His Gold Glove in 1996 was a complete joke even by the very low standards of the Gold Glove awards.

Dante Bichette - Outfielder California Angels 1988-1990 Milwaukee Brewers 1991-1992 Colorado Rockies 1993-1999 Cincinnati Reds 2000 Boston Red Sox 2000-2001 Awards 1995 NL Silver Slugger - OF All-Star Selections: 4 (1994, 1995, 1996, 1998) League Leader 1994: Games, At Bats 1995: SLG%, Homeruns, Hits, Total Bases, RBI, Runs Created 1998: Hits Career Ranks None of note Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 19 (112) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 81 (284) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 30.5 (275) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 82.0 (203) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in the HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Garret Anderson, Moises Alou, Shawn Green, Ted Kluszewski, Tony Oliva, Fred Lynn, George Hendrick, Tim Salmon, George Bell, Greg Luzinksi Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacment Level (WARP3) 1988: 1/0.3 1989: 2/1.2 1990: 7/3.1 1991: 7/3.8 1992: 8/3.8 1993: 19/6.3 1994: 13/5.8 1995: 23/5.8 1996: 20/4.1 1997: 15/4.0 1998: 17/6.2 1999: 15/3.0 2000: 14/3.9 2001: 7/2.3 Career Win Shares: 168 Career WARP3: 53.7 Would he get my vote? No. Bichette's numbers were heavily inflated by playing in Colorado and even if you took his counting stats at face value he still is no where close to a HOF. He's a good example of similarity scores not always being very reliable because they don't adjust to the era a player played in. Of his Top 10 similar batters only Garret Anderson has a lower career OPS+, who just happens to be his most similar batter, and Bichette was no where near is good as the likes of Tony Oliva and Fred Lynn.

Scott Brosius - Third Baseman Oakland Athletics 1991-1997 New York Yankees 1998-2001 Awards 1998 World Series MVP 1999 AL Gold Glove - 3B All-Star Selections: 1 (1998) League Leader None Career Ranks None of note Hall of Fame Stats HOF Standards: Batting - 12.6 (1349) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 19.0 (780) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Ed Sprague, Bill Melton, Mike Pagliarulo, Scott Spiezio, Tom Tresh, Jim Presley, Steve Buechele, Dave Hollins, Aaron Boone, Jim Tabor Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Leve (WARP3) 1991: 1/0.8 1992: 2/0.3 1993: 5/1.5 1994: 6/4.1 1995: 10/3.2 1996: 19/7.9 1997: 5/2.1 1998: 27/9.3 1999: 13/5.5 2000: 8/4.1 2001: 15/5.6 Career Win Shares: 111 Career WARP3: 44.3 Would he get my vote? No. Like Witt there is really no point in having Brosius on the ballot. Unlike Witt though you can figure out why he got through the nomination process, likely due to his World Series MVP in 1998. He was an excellent defensive third baseman but even if you had a Hall of Fame based soley on fielding he'd have no shot due to only being an everyday player for six years of his career, playing in more than 150 games just once.

2007 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot is out so as planned I'm going to do individual profiles on each player on the ballot. I'll go in the order of career Win Shares starting at the bottom. No player on this year's ballot is nearly bad as Gary DiSarcina being on last year's ballot and there are quite a few Hall of Very Good players making their first appearance on the ballot. But we start off with a very dubious addition to this year's ballot. Bobby Witt - Starting Pitcher Texas Rangers 1986-1992, 1995-1998 Oakland Athletics 1992-1994 Florida Marlins 1995 St. Louis Cardinals 1998 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1999 Cleveland Indians 2000 Arizona Diamondbacks 2001 Awards None League Leader None Career Ranks K: 69th K/9: 64th Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Pitching - 33 (696) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 11.0 (696) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 7.0 (1050) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Pitchers: Kevin Gross, Mike Moore, Jim Clancy, Steve Renko, Scott Erickson, Steve Trachsel, Bump Hadley, Tim Belcher, Floyd Bannister, Tom Candiotti Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacment Level (WARP3) 1986: 3/2.0 1987: 6/3.9 1988: 10/3.8 1989: 5/2.0 1990: 17/6.4 1991: 0/0.2 1992: 8/4.5 1993: 11/5.8 1994: 4/2.8 1995: 9/4.4 1996: 10/4.7 1997: 11/5.4 1998: 1/0.3 1999: 8/2.8 2000: 0/0.0 2001: 2/1.1 Career Win Shares: 102 Career WARP3: 49.9 Would He Get My Vote? No, shockingly as that might seem. Only had one good year in 1990 when he went 17-10 with a 3.36 ERA which was one of only four seasons that he had an ERA+ of 100 or better. Now any player who played at least 10 years can appear on the ballot but there is still a nomination process where a handful of players don't get on the ballot but there is always a few that make no sense as to why anyone would nominate them and Witt is definately one this year. If you're going to include Bobby Witt on the ballot why even bother with a nomination process? Not that it really matters in the end.