The Not-Quite-Official Early Oscar Thread!

[Guest Lord of The Curry]

I just noticed in the Best/Worst of 2002 thread that somebody noted that the Oscars should have their own thread.......well, here it is. Keep in mind, this all could change in an instant, but judging by hype and whatnot, here we goes........

 

My Picks

 

Best Picture

 

Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers

Moonlight Mile

Far From Heaven

Punch Drunk Love

Gangs of New York

 

Best Director

 

Curtis Hanson- 8 Mile

PTA- Punch Drunk Love

Peter Jackson- The Two Towers

Martin Scorsese- Gangs of New York

Steven Sodobergh- Solaris

 

Best Actor

 

Tom Hanks- Road to Perdition

Adam Sandler- Punch Drunk Love (laugh all you want, either him or Eminem will get one stictly to fill the "oddball underdog" category)

Daniel Day Lewis- Gangs of New York

Dustin Hoffman- Moonlight Mile

Dennis Quaid- Far From Heaven

 

Best Actress

 

Nia Vardalos- My Big Fat Greek Wedding

Julianne Moore- Far From Heaven

Susan Sarandon- Moonlight Mile

Meryl Streep- Adaptation

Salma Hayek- Frida

 

I'll post my supporting etc. picks later......

[Guest MDH257]

Who's gettng nominated and who has the positive buzz will be made clear once the Golden Globe nods are announced in a few weeks. Right now there are only a few Oscar nods I'm certain of:

 

Best Picture: Road to Perdition

Best Actor:Tom Hanks

Best Adapted Screenplay: My Big Fat Greek Wedding

 

If Gangs of New York is even half way decent, then the Miramax Oscar machine will get it nominated for Best Picture, Director, Actor (Dicaprio), and Supporting Actor (Daniel Day Lewis),plus the technical catigories.

 

I doubt it will happen but Far From Heaven deserves the Oscar for Best Art Direction (Set design).

[Guest Ravenbomb]

I'm sure 2 Towers will be nominated, and The Ring maybe for adapted screenplay. I haven't seen any other movies that have a prayer, so I dunno.

Scorsese's making another movie this year? SWEET!

[Guest El Satanico]

And I'm guaranteeing a bunch of idiots will bitch about Gangs Of New York because somehow in spite of the previews they will go into it expecting Goodfellas part three. Then because of the 1800's setting throwing them off they will say how much it sucked.

[Guest El Satanico]

I don't even watch the Oscars, but i like it when they are close so I can see what movies that i need to see if i haven't already.

[Guest WrestlingDeacon]

Oscar nominations usually follow certain patterns, you just have to figure them out.

 

Best Picture:

My Big Fat Greek Wedding-scrappy little picture that could, think Full Monty

Gangs of New York-if it's half decent it's getting a nod on hype and press alone

The Hours-art house picture you've never heard of

I'm not sold on Road to Perdition or The Two Towers yet, but they could certainly round out the field. Others to consider include Chicago, Confessions of a Dangerous Mind and Far from Heaven

 

Best Actor:

Jack Nicholson for What About Schmidt

George Clooney for Solaris

Robin Williams for One Hour Photo

Tom Hanks for Road to Perdition

Greg Kinnear for Auto Focus

Oscar loves to blow it's load over all these guys. Sandler and Eminem could sneak in just to provide buzz and hype. Other possibilities include Michael Caine for the Quiet American and Kevin Kline for the Emperor's Club.

 

Best Actress

Nicole Kidman for the Hours

Julianne Moore for Far From Heaven

Nia Vardolos for My Big Fat Greek Wedding

Selma Hyak for Frida

Emily Watson for Punch Drunk Love

Oscar has been wanting to blow it's load on all these women for a while. Other possibilities are Meryl Streep for the Hours and Jennifer Aniston for the Good Girl.

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Dennis Quaid for Far from Heaven

Paul Newman for Road to Perdition

Dustin Hoffman for Moonlight Mile

Ian McKellen for the Two Towers

Willem Dafoe for Auto Focus

Oscar owes all these guys but Hoffman. They would also love to give Newman a second trophy for snubbing him for so many years. Other possibilities are Dennis Haysbert for Far from Heaven and guys who might get cheated out of a best Oscar nod like Tom Hanks for Catch me If You Can and Robin Williams for Insomnia

 

Best Supporting Actress

No real picks here, it usually goes to a young ingenue or a crafty vet proving she has acting chops.

 

Best Director

Sam Mendes for Road to Perdition

PT Anderson for Punch Drunk Love

Martin Scorsese for Gangs of New York

Stephen Daldry for the Hours

Stephen Spielberg for Minority Report or Catch Me if You can, cause Oscar would love a Spielberg vs. Scorsese showdown

Oscar also loves actors turned director so look out for George Clooney for Confessions of a Dangerous Mind and Denzel Washington for Antwone Fisher.

[Guest Vern Gagne]

I could see the late Richard Harris getting nominated for best supporting actor.

[Guest MDH257]

The Hours-art house picture you've never heard of

1.) Look at the cast (not just Streep, Kidman, and Moore). The Hours is not going to be be considered the art house movie you've never heard of.

 

2.) I don't think there's enough buzz on a lot of the movies mentioned in this thread (Auto Focus, Insomnia, The Ring). Punch Drunk Love is really good, but the mixed reaction it got will hurt it's chances.

 

Seriously, we'll have a ten times better idea of what's getting nominated in a couple of weeks. At this time a year ago I would have said there was no way Denzel was getting nominated for Training Day.

[Guest MDH257]

Double Post

 

Sorry

[Guest El Satanico]

Just because a movie has a good cast doesn't mean it's not a "Art house movie that no one has heard of".

 

I've never heard of it until reading this thread.

[Guest Lord of The Curry]

Best Supporting Actor

 

Viggo Mortenson- The Two Towers

Sir Ian McKellan- The Two Towers

Paul Newman- Road to Perdition

Willem Dafoe- Auto Focus

Jake Gyllenhall (sp?)- Moonlight Mile

 

can't think of actresses right now, will post later......

[Guest RavishingRickRudo]

Jake G. will get a nomination. Just a wink from the academy to acknowledge his body of work (Bubbleboy was a great movie... for me to...) - he won't win or anything, it's just I can see him being the new golden boy the academy would like to see groomed and then say 'hey, we noticed this kid back in the day'.

 

I wonder if the Two Towers will win, or will the academy just wait for the 3rd one to come out so they can do a 'package deal' and just reward the series overall value. Fellowship got robbed because Gladiator won the year before and that left a lot of peoples heads spinning so last year they wouldn't dare pick another 'epic'.

[Guest MDH257]

Just because a movie has a good cast doesn't mean it's not a "Art house movie that no one has heard of".

 

I've never heard of it until reading this thread.

Nobody's heard of it now but, they will in six weeks. This is a studio film that will probably be playing at the mall (at least in major cities), not an idependent that is only playing at the arthouse that you have to drive 45 minutes to get to. When the three women are doing a special show with Oprah, I think somebody's heard of the movie.

 

Jim Broadbent won Best Supporting Actor last year for Iris. Marcia Gay Harden won for Pollack. Now those were arthouse films nobody had heard of (even though I had seen them, but I see everything and I woudn't have seen Iris if all the actors hadn't been nominated).

 

My point was that in a couple of weeks people will know about The Hours, which means that in the spring it's not going to be considered a movie nobody's heard of.

[Guest NoCalMike]

Look out for this Darkhorse. NARC Directed by Joe Carnahan. He is from my city, Sacramento, CA. His first movie was Blood Guts Bullets and Octane and his 2nd movie NARC, was picked up by Paramount. I went to the film festival here and he was there to show his first movie and have a Q & A session. He said, Tom Cruise saw a rough cut of Narc and convinced his production company in Paramount to fund it and pick it up. Paramount called Joe and said they are going to give it an Oscar push. You probobaly won't hear much about this movie since it is only Joe's 2nd movie and his 1st movie is scarcely shown on IFC or Sundance channel. Narc stars Ray Liotta and Robert Patrick. The closet thing I can compare it too is maybe Rush, however I am not sure the exact plot yet. I got a trailer for it about a month ago, I just forgot what movie it was before. Like I said, Joe Carnahan and NARC are both DARK HORSES, and still probobaly not even likely to get nominated, due to the extreme and excessive violence(which Joe told us Paramount intends to cut out for the theatrical version). However, most film festivals and art houses have said so far that the film industry has something really special in Carnahan. So we'll see......Damn I just pimped him badly.