Oscar picks from the Deacon

[Guest WrestlingDeacon]

Since the other thread was kind of for the pre-Oscar predictions, I thought I would do a new thread for my own across the board picks. Feel free to comment or post your own picks here. My winners are in bold. My runner-ups are in italics

 

Best Picture

'Chicago'

'The Hours'

'Gangs of New York'

'The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers'

'The Pianist'

 

-A great pocket of the Academy really hated Moulin Rogue last year and thought that it pissed on the corpse of the movie musical. Chicago is the perfect film to not only placate these people, but those who are always looking for films that have that classic Hollywood aire. Gangs of New York has that too, but it fell way short of being the cultural event it was supposed to have been and it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't win any major awards, although I think it will for being a labor of love for Scorsese alone. The Hours is a too small chick flick. The Pianist is your art house flick and the Twin Towers is your mainstream blockbuster. I'd almost call this a lock for Chicago right now.

 

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, 'The Pianist'

Michael Caine, 'The Quiet American'

Nicolas Cage, 'Adaptation'

Daniel Day-Lewis, 'Gangs of New York'

Jack Nicholson, 'About Schmidt'

 

-There's nobody here the Academy owes, so look for them to go with the person they like most. Jack was a very gracious winner last time and always is good for press. This win would also break all kinds of records and give the awards some extra post show juice. Lewis got phenomenal reviews for Gangs of New York and his last win predates those of Cage and Caine. Brody is very interesting, but unless The Pianist goes on some sort of weird sweep, he doesn't have a hope in hell.

 

Best Actress

Salma Hayek, 'Frida'

Nicole Kidman, 'The Hours'

Diane Lane, 'Unfaithful'

Julianne Moore, 'Far From Heaven'

Renée Zellweger, 'Chicago'

 

-Chicago needs a win in another big category to solidify its win for best picture and this is the best place to take it. Julianne Moore is going to cancel herself out. Diane Lane and Salma Hayek were nominated pretty much because everyone said they should be, but they don't have a ground swell of support going on. The Academy wants to award the Hours somewhere and this is good to show there is no hard feelings against Nicole when the "Chicago good, Moulin Rouge bad" message starts leaking out. However, I think The Hours will get the traditional runner up award in the screenplay category. The Academy also really likes Zellwegger.

 

Best Supporting Actor

Chris Cooper, 'Adaptation'

Ed Harris, 'The Hours'

Paul Newman, 'Road to Perdition'

John C. Reilly, 'Chicago'

Christopher Walken, 'Catch Me If You Can'

 

-Best supporting actor traditionally goes to the old fart they owe. They owe Harris big time and it would be just like the Academy to give it to him for a picture he doesn't have a lot to do with as a bigger nod to his past work. Giving the award to Newman would be a bit of an insult to him and they feel they've already payed their due to him. Walken is too unpredictable, but he's a nice name to toss out for press. Reilly is a hardworking character like Jim Broadbent who won last year and Chicago could get on a roll.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, 'About Schmidt'

Julianne Moore, 'The Hours'

Queen Latifah, 'Chicago'

Meryl Streep, 'Adaptation'

Catherine Zeta-Jones, 'Chicago'

 

-More of a default win for Jones that anything else. Moore, as I said, cancels herself out. Giving a supporting award to Streep would seem like a slap in the face, much like with Newman. However, Bates is reinventing herself as a supporting actress, but Schmidt being seen as Jack’s movie will hurt her. Giving it to Queen Latifah could further quiet down those who cry racism at the Oscars, but the Academy feels that they’ve shut people up for the time being with Berry and Washington last year. Awarding both female leads for Chicago looks good too in the long run for the film.

 

Best Director

Pedro Almodóvar, 'Talk to Her'

Stephen Daldry, 'The Hours'

Rob Marshall, 'Chicago'

Roman Polanski, 'The Pianist'

Martin Scorsese, 'Gangs of New York'

 

-I’d say this is Scorsese’s. This film was a labor of love for him and the Academy’s chances to finally reward him is growing thinner as he grows older and works less. It also doesn’t damage a musical like Chicago to be best picture without winning best director. Nominating Polanski is a nice gesture, but giving him the award opens up a whole kettle of fish. Giving best director to Daldry would be a way to split the focus of how I look for the awards to fall. Being that Hollywood should be getting back to doing smaller more dramatic pictures like The Hours and glitzy old school crowd pleasers like Chicago.

 

Best Original Screenplay

Pedro Almodóvar, 'Talk to Her'

Jay Cocks, Steven Zaillian, Kenneth Lonergan, 'Gangs of New York'

Alfonso and Carlos Cuarón, 'Y tu Mamá Tambien'

Todd Haynes, 'Far From Heaven'

Nia Vardalos, 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding'

 

-The two foreign films here are very intriguing, but they’re not going to win a screenplay award from the American academy. Rewarding a little comedy that could like My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and honoring a woman, is great for the screenplay category. However, the screenplay awards usually play into rewarding the films that got passed over for the other big awards that the Academy still wants to make sure get noticed.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bill Condon, 'Chicago'

David Hare, 'The Hours'

Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz and Paul Weitz, 'About a Boy'

Charlie and Donald Kaufman, 'Adaptation'

Ronald Harwood, 'The Pianist'

 

-Pretty much what I said above about rewarding the also-rans. Nominating an imaginary brother looks cute, but you’re not going to look foolish and possibly fall flat on your face by giving them the win.

 

Best Animated Feature Film

'Ice Age'

'Lilo and Stitch'

'Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron'

'Spirited Away'

'Treasure Planet'

 

-This is about traditional animation vs. computer wizardy. With cgi winning last year and Lilo and Stitch having a sly off kilter sense of humor, I favor them here.

 

Best Foreign Language Film

'The Crime of Father Amaro' ('El Crimen del Padre Amaro'), Mexico

'Hero', People's Republic of China

'Nowhere in Africa', Germany

'The Man Without a Past', Finland

'Zus & Zo', the Netherlands

 

-This is usually a toss up. Go with what is most accessible to American fans.

 

Art Direction

'Chicago'

'Frida'

'Gangs of New York'

'The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers'

'Road to Perdition'

 

-This would be a good place to give the Two Towers its token win, but I think something more minor in the sound category will get it. I look for Gangs to do a nice showing in the top technical categories as it is a visually stunning film and it beefs up the chances of a Scorsese director win.

 

Cinematography

'Chicago'

'Far From Heaven'

'Gangs of New York'

'The Pianist'

'Road to Perdition'

 

-That classical Hollywood feel could really help Far From Heaven here, but cinematography traditionally goes to sweeping epics with a lot of majestic and grand shots. Again, a win here bodes well for Scorsese later.

 

Costume Design

'Chicago'

'Frida'

'Gangs of New York'

'The Hours'

'The Pianist'

 

-Not only is it a musical, but Chicago is also a historical musical. Although, Gangs falls more into the costume drama and historical drama categories. I see this being very neck in neck.

 

Documentary Feature

'Bowling For Columbine'

'Daughter From Danang'

'Prisoner of Paradise'

'Spellbound'

'Winged Migration'

 

-Don’t know much about the picks here. I think it would be funny to give Moore the win just to spite him and then watch him get all humbled and weepy at winning.

 

Documentary Short Subject

'The Collector of Bedford Street'

'Mighty Times: The Legacy of Rosa Parks'

'Twin Towers'

'Why Can't We Be a Family Again?'

 

-Rosa Parks could be your token African American offering this year, but again I’m not too up on these picks.

 

Film Editing

'Chicago'

'Gangs of New York'

'The Hours'

'The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers'

'The Pianist'

 

-Again, Gangs sweeps the awards linked most closely to directing.

 

Makeup

'Frida'

'The Time Machine'

 

-This usually goes to the showy sci-fi/horror film, but I think honoring Frida here over a late winter flop makes sense here.

 

Music (Score)

'Catch Me If You Can'

'Far From Heaven'

'Frida'

'The Hours'

'Road to Perdition'

 

-Getting that mood of an old Douglas Sirk film is all about the look and the music. The Hours also has a nice golden age Hollywood sounding score.

 

Music (Song)

'I Move On' from Chicago'

'Lose Yourself' from '8 Mile'

'Burn It Blue' from 'Frida'

'The Hands That Built America' from 'Gangs of New York'

'Father and Daughter' from 'The Wild Thornberrys Movie'

 

-You think it goes to a musical, but Chicago has been around for years. Traditionally this goes to the biggest musical name and going U2 over Paul Simon is a little more hip. Bono will also most likely use the win to give nods to all the causes he supports and one bleeding heart is always good for sympathy. For Eminem, it’s much like with South Park’s nod a few years ago, it shows that the Academy can be hip and with it, but you don’t want reward that.

 

 

Short Film (Animated)

'The Cathedral'

'The Chubbchubbs!'

'Das Rad'

'Mike's New Car'

'Mt. Head'

 

Short Film (Live Action)

'Fair D'Hiver'

'I'll Wait for the Next One ...' ('J'attendrai le Suivant...')

'Inja' ('Dog')

'Johnny Flynton

'This Charming Man' ('Der er en Yndig Mand')

 

-Don’t know much of these nominees. I usually research a bit more closer to the Oscar date or just pick whatever has the coolest sounding name.

 

Sound

'Chicago'

'Gangs of New York'

'The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers'

'Road to Perdition'

'Spider-Man'

 

-Here’s where the Two Towers can pick up some token wins to keep the ball rolling to what might be a big show for them next year. If Chicago gets on a sweep an early and minor award like this would be a good indication of it.

 

Sound Editing

'The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers'

'Minority Report'

'Road to Perdition'

 

-See above. Throwing Road to Perdition one single bone could happen though.

 

Visual Effects

'The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers'

'Spider-Man'

'Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones'

 

-Here’s where you Gollum lovers can be vindicated. If the Two Towers wins nothing else it will win this. Usually the biggest blockbuster of the year picks up some technical award to give it a little credit, but Spider-Man pales in comparison to the Lord of the Rings.