Chances of an Iraq attack on Israel low

[Guest JangoFett4Hire]

JERUSALEM (AP) The probability of an Iraqi attack on Israel is ''very, very, very low,'' Israel's army chief said in an interview published Friday, noting that he has seen no evidence that Saddam Hussein has moved Scud missiles into striking range of Israel.

 

Israel's military chief, Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon, told the Maariv daily that an Israeli spy satellite had not picked up any sign of Scuds in the area and that the probability of a missile strike appeared slim.

 

''The probability is very, very, very low,'' Yaalon told the paper. ''The director of military intelligence has said that he does not see missiles there.''

 

Fox News on Friday quoted unidentified U.S. defense officials as saying they had detected movement of Scuds along Iraq's western edge, a sign that Saddam could be considering a pre-emptive missile attack on Israel. In the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq launched 39 Scuds from there at Israel.

 

The interview with Yaalon was conducted Monday, raising the possibility of Scud movement since then. However, Y Net, the Web site of the Yediot Ahronot newspaper, also quoted Israeli defense officials Friday as saying they had no evidence of Scuds in western Iraq.

 

Yaalon played down the possibility that Iraq would launch an initial missile barrage on Israel. Such a strike would work against the Iraqi leader's interest because it would unite the international community now starkly divided over whether to attack Iraq, Yaalon said.

 

''We presume that (attacking Israel) will begin to interest him (Saddam) when he is with his back to the wall,'' Yaalon said. ''We need to identify this moment and hope that by then he will no longer have the capabilities to attack us.''

 

Yaalon also said that Israeli intelligence shows Iraqi forces are not built up on the country's western edge but concentrated around Baghdad, meaning Saddam probably wants to draw U.S. forces into a tedious urban war that might prolong the fighting.

 

Israel expects to have warning from the United States of an attack on Iraq, but it also has enough of its own intelligence to spot any movement of U.S. forces that would indicate the start of the offensive, Yaalon said.

 

In the 1991 Gulf War, all Scuds fired at Israel carried conventional warheads, but panicked Israelis scrambled for gas masks and shelters. The missiles mostly landed in the crowded Tel Aviv area, causing few casualties but some damage.

 

Hoping to shoot down any incoming rockets, Israel has set up U.S. Patriot missile batteries along with the Arrow missile system, which was developed jointly by the United States and Israel and is the world's only fully deployed anti-missile system.

[Guest Kotzenjunge]

So much for that worry, and Israel's intelligence gathering abilities are tremendous, so I'm confident they aren't missing anything hidden.

 

So who in their neigborhood (as Bush put it in his press conference last wee) are they a threat to now if we don't invade?

[Guest Ozymandias]

So who in their neigborhood (as Bush put it in his press conference last wee) are they a threat to now if we don't invade?

Typical anti-American bullshit. Go back to Iran, Habib!

[Guest Kotzenjunge]

So who in their neigborhood (as Bush put it in his press conference last wee) are they a threat to now if we don't invade?

Typical anti-American bullshit. Go back to Iran, Habib!

What'd I say that was anti-American?

[Guest JangoFett4Hire]

the face makes he think he was joking Kotz

[Guest Kotzenjunge]

Ah, didn't notice that. Whew, I was afraid I'd have to do my blood and guts super-patriotic speech I give anyone who tells me to move somewhere else or something.

[Guest nikowwf]

Saddam is not supposed to have Scuds, so he will not move them in to launching position until a war actually starts. Hard to scream I DONT HAVE WEAPONS as they are driving across the desert for all to see.

 

niko

[Guest evenflowDDT]

Saddam is not supposed to have Scuds, so he will not move them in to launching position until a war actually starts. Hard to scream I DONT HAVE WEAPONS as they are driving across the desert for all to see.

or... it's hard to set up scuds when you don't have any.

 

I never understood where all this fear of Iraq attacking Israel came from in the first place.

[Guest DrTom]

I never understood where all this fear of Iraq attacking Israel came from in the first place. 

Um... maybe because he did it in 1991, and he's enough of a crackpot to do it again? He still has Scuds, don't you worry about that. And if he launches on Israel again, then I think his removal from power will be swifter than it would be already.

[Guest evenflowDDT]

I never understood where all this fear of Iraq attacking Israel came from in the first place. 

Um... maybe because he did it in 1991, and he's enough of a crackpot to do it again? He still has Scuds, don't you worry about that. And if he launches on Israel again, then I think his removal from power will be swifter than it would be already.

He did attack them in 1991, but he's not "enough of a crackpot to do it again". He knows that if he does that, he'll have absolutely no international supporters, as I doubt those that are against the current U.S. military actions would oppose if Saddam proved them wrong. If ANYTHING from ANYONE happened to Israel, Saddam would be scared to death because it'd be blamed on him, and he'd lose that same support. Besides, the last thing he'd want is another military power against him.

 

And if he had Scuds, wouldn't he be more apt to use them in defense against the upcoming U.S. onslaught? The man's a brutal dictator, but he's not an idiot.

[Guest DrTom]

We don't need to worry about Scuds, anyway. They're not good missiles, and the Iraqi guidance systems are too shitty to make them very accurate.

 

Joke from 1991: what do you do if a scud missile is coming at you?

 

Stand still. It'll miss.