Bet here for War's End

[Guest Vyce]

What I'm worried about is a preemptive VX nerve gas strike on our forces in Kuwait before the 48 hours are up.

 

How do we respond to that, nuke?

Honestly, if that happens, I would have to say it depends upon our body count.

 

If it's high enough, yes, I can totally see a nuke being dropped. The gloves will be fucking OFF.

[Guest Brian]

Pre-emptive strike would be very stupid. Right now he has a lot of sympathy and he's going to utilize it. He's going to fall back and create a large casualty count inside the city, while terrorist strike back to make it look like the US has created a holy war.

[Guest phoenixrising]

Bush has said before that if chemical/biological weapons are used against the U.S. there would be nuclear retaliation.

 

However I don't see it happening for a couple reasons: 1) Using chemical/biological weapons would completely validate the charges the U.S. has placed on Saddam and completely swing world opinion against him and 2) even if the attack happened dropping a nuke would go completely counter to the liberation Bush is promising.

 

My bet: After the big airstrikes the U.S. forces move swiftly toward Baghdad. Around Baghdad resistance will get stronger and then once they enter Baghdad I'm hoping it won't be as bad as I think it will be. Urban combat is vicious stuff. Should be over in a month or two with a newly liberated Iraq.

 

Saddam's bunker takes a 4,000 pound "Deep Throat" penetrator bomb which blows him to pieces. Or so I hope.

[Guest DrTom]

What I'm worried about is a preemptive VX nerve gas strike on our forces in Kuwait before the 48 hours are up.

 

How do we respond to that, nuke?

I would. And I wouldn't stop until Iraq was a sea of atomized glass. But that's just me.

 

I think this campaign will take 3-5 weeks. Once the Iraqi Republican Guard realizes that being the elite of Iraw's army doesn't mean shit against Marines and Army Rangers, the surrenders will come en masse. I think we'll probably only have to kill a few hundred of their troops. The interesting thing is that Iraq has spread their regiments out, thus making it harder for us to get them in one or two concentrated strikes.

[Guest Crazy Dan]

I see this going on about a month, with the siege of Baghdad taking the most time. Most of the soldiers I could see just surrendering like that.

 

But what I could also see prolonging the counter is the oil well fires and Saddam launching his chemical/biological weopans on the troops. But hind sight is 20/20, Iraq is not as strong as it was 12 years ago, but nothing is a given in love and war.

[Guest Jobber of the Week]

Hey guys, let's come up with a semi-official form for our entries, okay?

 

Here's mine:

 

How long will it take to capture Baghdad? 4 weeks

Will Saddam be killed? Yes

Total Iraqi civillian casualties: 150,000 dead

Total military casualties Iraq: 50,000 dead

Total military casualties U.S.: 3,500 dead

Will the Iraqi army regulars hold the lines? No

Will the Republican Guard fight to the end? Yes

Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes

Will Saddam launch attacks on the Kurds? No

Will Saddam launch attacks on Israel? Yes

-If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes

Will Saddam sacrifice Baghdad (gas/nuke it)? No

Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes

Will Iran do anything silly like try for land? No

Will Saddam burn the oil fields? No

How long will the US be occupying Iraq? ~5 years

Will the Iraq war catalyze increased terrorism in America?Yes

In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Bad

 

Comments/Thoughts: It ain't gonna be pretty...

[Guest goodhelmet]

eh, i'm still pissed i lost a dollar when i took the under on when the war would start. a month ago, i thought war was coming in two weeks tops. two weeks late and a dollar short.

 

as for how long the war will last... the optimistic side says that the thing will be a blip on the history line that will make the bay of pigs seem like the french-indian war. the pesimist in me believes this thing will be a long drawn out multi-front war when some desperate middle eastern country backs saddam and the dominoes fall when the real war begins... muslim vs. christian nations. if saddam wasn't despised by the most fundamentalist islamic nations then this conflict could easily deteriorate into something so tragic.

[Guest Powerplay]

How long will it take to capture Baghdad? 1 1/2 weeks of real fighting, maybe a month of clean up and scattered resistance from the Republican Guard.

Will Saddam be killed? Mostly likely at his own hand.

Total Iraqi civillian casualties: 30,000 dead

Total military casualties Iraq: 40,000 dead

Total military casualties U.S.: A max of 1,000, though most likely it'll be far lower than that.

Will the Iraqi army regulars hold the lines? No chance.

Will the Republican Guard fight to the end?Yes.

Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: I doubt it, though one can't always be sure. After Bush made it clear that they would be tried as War Criminals if they did, I really doubt that many of the troops will go through with that.

Will Saddam launch attacks on the Kurds? No

Will Saddam launch attacks on Israel? Most likely some last ditch effort.

-If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? No. They'll keep their cool this time around.

Will Saddam sacrifice Baghdad (gas/nuke it)? No

Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes

Will Iran do anything silly like try for land? No way. They are already listed on the Axis of Evil and they've been trying hard to get off. I don't think ANYONE would be that stupid.

Will Saddam burn the oil fields? No

How long will the US be occupying Iraq? 1-2 Years.

Will the Iraq war catalyze increased terrorism in America? No. The same people will still be attacking us, they'll just try to twist this into another of their 'justifications'.

In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good. Lowered Gas Prices, another democracy in the Middle East, and one less threat to the civilized world. That's what I see coming from this...

 

Comments/Thoughts: The real stuff will be over quick. The only problem afterwards is making sure the seeds of democracy will root strong enough in the minds of the people.

[Guest The Hamburglar]

If the initial strikes are as big as they say, mass Iraqi surrenders could lead to the thing effectively being over in a week. If not that, then a month. As soon as US troops start moving they'll be too mobile for chemical weapons to be effective. I don't buy this whole Baghdad last stand defense thing, either. The only worry for the US is if the separate racial factions in Iraq rise up independently of each other and nick various parts of Iraqi land. The Kurds are apparently very hungry for revenge on Iraq, so the US would do well to keep an eye on them.

[Guest Plushy Al Logan]

How long will it take to capture Baghdad? 4 weeks

Will Saddam be killed? Yes

Total Iraqi civillian casualties: 150,000 dead

Total military casualties Iraq: 50,000 dead

Total military casualties U.S.: 3,500 dead

Will the Iraqi army regulars hold the lines? No

Will the Republican Guard fight to the end? No

Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes

Will Saddam launch attacks on the Kurds? Yes

Will Saddam launch attacks on Israel? Yes

-If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes

Will Saddam sacrifice Baghdad (gas/nuke it)? Yes/gas

Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes

Will Iran do anything silly like try for land? No

Will Saddam burn the oil fields? No

How long will the US be occupying Iraq? ~5 years

Will the Iraq war catalyze increased terrorism in America?Yes

In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Bad

 

Comments/Thoughts: It ain't gonna be pretty...

[Guest Kahran Ramsus]

How long will it take to capture Baghdad? 3 weeks

Will Saddam be killed? Yes

Total Iraqi civillian casualties: 100,000 dead (the vast majority by Saddam)

Total military casualties Iraq: 50,000 dead

Total military casualties U.S.: 2,000 dead

Will the Iraqi army regulars hold the lines? No

Will the Republican Guard fight to the end? Yes

Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: He'll try

Will Saddam launch attacks on the Kurds? Yes

Will Saddam launch attacks on Israel? No

-If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes

Will Saddam sacrifice Baghdad (gas/nuke it)? No

Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes

Will Iran do anything silly like try for land? No

Will Saddam burn the oil fields? No

How long will the US be occupying Iraq? 18 months

Will the Iraq war catalyze increased terrorism in America? No

In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good

 

Comments/Thoughts: There is no question that long-term this war will be a good thing. The bigger problem is short-term.

[Guest Vern Gagne]

Guessing when the War ends and what happens is Hussein is fine. But guessing the number of civilians and soldiers killed is just wrong.

[Guest Vyce]

How long will it take to capture Baghdad? Roughly about 4 weeks (that'll essentially be the end).

Will Saddam be killed? No. He'll be a true coward and run.

Total Iraqi civillian casualties: 50,000 dead. Most by SADDAM's hand.

Total military casualties Iraq: 50,000 dead.

Total military casualties U.S.: 600. Yeah, you read that right. If he uses chemical weapons, perhaps more.

Will the Iraqi army regulars hold the lines? No.

Will the Republican Guard fight to the end? No.

Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: It's possible. I'll be optimistic and say no.

Will Saddam launch attacks on the Kurds? No, if anything they'll launch attacks on HIM.

Will Saddam launch attacks on Israel? Possible, but I think unlikely. If he does, I don't see it being anything but a weak attack.

-If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? No. They'll let us handle the rough stuff. Light retaliation form them.

Will Saddam sacrifice Baghdad (gas/nuke it)? Yes and no. I don't think he'll destroy the city, but I can see him killing civilians (and then perhaps blaming it on the U.S.).

Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes, likely.

Will Iran do anything silly like try for land? No. Even they know better. This stuff will come post-war.

Will Saddam burn the oil fields? No, but he WILL attempt to. He won't have a great deal of success.

How long will the US be occupying Iraq? In at least some capacity, at least 10 years. Heavily the first year, with occupation decreasing each year afterwards.

Will the Iraq war catalyze increased terrorism in America? In the short term, yes. Well, let me qualify that - it will increase the THREAT of terrorism. It may increase terrorism on our interests abroad (I can see another embassy bombing).

In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good. But we won't get any credit for it.

 

Comments/Thoughts: It ain't gonna be pretty...

[Guest Jobber of the Week]

Guessing when the War ends and what happens is Hussein is fine. But guessing the number of civilians and soldiers killed is just wrong.

Why not?

 

I used to think those predicting 300,000+ were going a little high, but it appears that 270,000 is a REALLY small number.

 

The UN projections were in upwards of Half a million.

 

http://abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s759359.htm

 

In planning for the numbers that will require medical treatment, "as many as 500,000 could require treatment to a greater or lesser degree as a result of direct or indirect injuries" (para.23). A footnote bases this claim on World Health Organisation estimates of 100,000 direct casualties, and 400,000 indirect casualties. The high number of indirect casualties may be partially because "the outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic proportions is very likely." (para.25).

 

 

"It is estimated that the nutritional status of some 3.03 million persons countrywide will be dire and they will require therapeutic feeding. This consists of 2.03 million severely and moderately malnourished children under five and one million pregnant and lactating women." (para.27). A footnote identifies this as a United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) estimate.

 

 

"It is estimated that there will eventually be some 900,000 Iraqi refugees requiring assistance, of which 100,000 will be in need of immediate assistance." (para.35). A footnote identifies this as an estimate of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

[Guest Vern Gagne]

Guessing when the War ends and what happens is Hussein is fine. But guessing the number of civilians and soldiers killed is just wrong.

Why not?

 

Why is it Ok. I'm kinda suprised Jobber, you don't mind. Being against the war it would seem like you would be against guessing civilian and military casualities.

[Guest Brian]

I don't buy this whole Baghdad last stand defense thing, either.

The siege of Baghdad, if smartly laid out by Iraq could take out a huge number of casualties. Military dressed as civilians, suicide bombers, Saddam and his look-a-likes all hiding in seperate places. It could be very nasty, and a lot of civilian casualties, perpetrated to make the US look like bad guys.

[Guest Jobber of the Week]

I'm kinda suprised Jobber, you don't mind. Being against the war it would seem like you would be against guessing civilian and military casualities.

I was against the war, but since the war is going to happen anyway, there's not a lot left to protest about.

 

Basically, do you seriously believe that, after targeting and destroying the country's infrastructure, that there will not be widespread famine and disease? A casualty isn't necessarily a death caused by an American cruise missle lodging in someone's ass and exploding. A casualty is a death or serious injury. If you think that the US government has some magical means of preventing such civilian deaths and injuries, then please share, and I'm sure that the Red Cross and UNICEF would like to know, too.

[Guest Vern Gagne]

I never said there won't be civilian casualties. I'm just don't think it's right to guess how many civilians are killed.

[Guest Jobber of the Week]

Well, I think many of them will be caused by Saddam in an attempt to make the US look bad, but... *shrug*

 

What can I say? I guess I'm not that Politically Correct. I think ignoring the chances of a good number of civilian casualties is discounting the war as relatively painless.

[Guest Kahran Ramsus]

I never said there won't be civilian casualties. I'm just don't think it's right to guess how many civilians are killed.

It's not like we want them to be killed. I would be much happier if it was 0.

[Guest The Hamburglar]

I don't buy this whole Baghdad last stand defense thing, either.

The siege of Baghdad, if smartly laid out by Iraq could take out a huge number of casualties. Military dressed as civilians, suicide bombers, Saddam and his look-a-likes all hiding in seperate places. It could be very nasty, and a lot of civilian casualties, perpetrated to make the US look like bad guys.

The Iraqis, and Middle Eastern Nations as a whole, have shown nothing in the last century to indicate that they could pull off that type of combat effectively. Besides, it would require fanaticism, of which there is little in the Iraqi people.

[Guest Brian]

It doesn't have to be the Iraqi people. Only a few hundred loyalist guards, some suicide bombers, members of Al Quida, and a couple of fanaticals. Other than actually getting the other Saddams and spreading out, it won't take much and the idea is to create a high casualty count rather than worry about who you're hitting.

[Guest KanadianKrusty]

A couple of weeks and they're ready to enter Baghdad, and then it's going to be a HUGE mess.

[Guest teke184]

I'll go with April 9, just over three weeks. The majority of the war will be over quickly but we'll be mopping up for the better part of those weeks.

Hey, remember this? While I didn't correctly predict the end of the war, I did seem to pull the day that Baghdad fell straight out of my ass.

[Guest SP-1]

Indeed. That wasn't really a bad call at all.

[Guest Kotzenjunge]

I didn't give a date, but I said three weeks. Watch the victory speech be delayed JUST TO PISS ME OFF!!!

[Guest HartFan86]

I said April 20...I MAY be right...

[Guest cartman]

This battle may be over, but the WAR sure as hell isnt even close.