Al's New Baseball Column

[Guest alkeiper]

I'm looking for feedback for my column. Let me know what you guys think.

[Guest phoenixrising]

Liked the column, especially the analysis of the trades made so far. Also liked the part about sabermetrics and the breakdown for each stat. Where's OPS though? OPS (on-base% + slugging%) is considered one of the best ways to judge a hitter. But that's a minor nitpick. Again, liked the column, and I would read the next one.

[Guest alkeiper]

Don't know why I didn't include OPS. I probably felt that the other stuff needed to get included. If I do a second version, I'll include it, along with park effects.

[Guest DrTom]

To me, OPS really doesn't fall into the sabermetric categories. As a roto guy, I look at some of the sabermetrics, and a lot of the indicators are more... geeky... than something like OPS, which has garnered "mainstream" acceptance as a stat. I hate to sum them up in terms like that, but real sabermetrics are like "underground" stats, IMO.

[Guest phoenixrising]

To me, OPS really doesn't fall into the sabermetric categories. As a roto guy, I look at some of the sabermetrics, and a lot of the indicators are more... geeky... than something like OPS, which has garnered "mainstream" acceptance as a stat. I hate to sum them up in terms like that, but real sabermetrics are like "underground" stats, IMO.

Actually I think you're right about OPS. I remember not too long ago all that was ever held up as the measure of a great hitter was his batting average. In the past few years, OBP and OPS have gone from underground stats to mainstream stats. I think OPS is still kind of on the line...it's beginning to be brought up more and is eventually going to be mainstream.

[Guest Vern Gagne]

OPS while a good indicator, just seems like some know it all Baseball guy might use to impress his friends.

[Guest alkeiper]

Mainstream or underground doesn't define sabermetric stats, IMO. It's about how well you measure ability by the stat.

[Guest DrTom]

I like the sabermetrics Ron Shandler uses in his annual Baseball Forecaster. They're invaluable for player evaluation, and I think reading that book made me worlds better as a Roto player. It was like a light bulb went on above my head.

[Guest alkeiper]

I've never read Shandler's book. What stats does he use?

[Guest DrTom]

For hitters: the everyday categories (BA, HR, etc), plus OBP, SLG, OPS, BB% (walks/Plate appearances), Contact % ((AB-K)/AB), Eye (BB/K ratio), xBA (Expected batting average, formula in the book), PX (power skill), SX (speed skill), G/F (groundball/flyball ratio), RC/G (runs created per game) and RAR (runs above replacement). For the more obscure stats, they're fully explained in the book.

 

For pitchers: The usual, plus BF/G (Batters faced per game, used to track arm abuse patterns in starters), OBP, BA vs. L and R, Hit %, xERA (expected ERA), RAR, Control (walk rate), Dominance (K rate), Command (K/BB rate), HR/9, G/F ratio, Strand %, and Base Performance Value.

 

Shandler devotes a chapter of the book to sabermetrics and explains where all the numbers and skill-tracking categories come from. I like his book because it gives me key insights as to what's going on behind the numbers, and is actually pretty useful to predict seasons and trends.