Toronto Blue Jays

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

As promised, a week late due to ice storms...

 

In 2003, the Toronto Blue Jays finished 86-76. Carlos Delgado was the best hitter in the American League, while Roy Halladay won the Cy Young Award. The team finished second in the league in runs scored. Surely with some improvements to the pitching staff, the Blue Jays could even make a run at the big clubs. However, 2004 turned into a disaster. The team finished 67-94, forcing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays out of the cellar for the first time in club history. So what happened?

 

Quite simply, nearly all of the Toronto regulars took a step backwards. Here are the Top Ten Blue Jays of 2003, as rated by Win Shares...

 

Carlos Delgado (32)

Vernon Wells (26)

Roy Halladay (23)

Orlando Hudson (18)

Frank Catalanotto (15)

Kelvim Escobar (12)

Eric Hinske (12)

Reed Johnson (11)

Mike Bordick (11)

Aquilino Lopez (10)

Josh Phelps (10)

 

Three all stars, and seven other reasonably talented players. This group of 10 earned a total of 180 win shares. Two of those players, Escobar and Bordick, left over the offseason. The other eight? Take a look at this list of the same players, with their 2004 Win Shares in parenthesis...

 

Carlos Delgado (17)

Vernon Wells (14)

Roy Halladay (10)

Orlando Hudson (16)

Kelvim Escobar

Frank Catalanotto (5)

Eric Hinske (7)

Reed Johnson (10)

Mike Bordick

Aquilino Lopez (0)

Josh Phelps (5)

 

The eight players who remained on the Blue Jays declined a total of 73 win shares. That is a significant figure. There are few teams who could survive that kind of dropoff from their best players. With Delgado and Halladay missing significant time, it is easy to see how everything went wrong for the Blue Jays.

 

So what does the future hold? I have several reasons to believe the Blue Jays will improve next season. For one, the regulars should regain form. Roy Halladay pitched well in September, and he should regain his status as an elite starting pitcher. Vernon Wells will certainly perform better, and Eric Hinske can not possibly perform worse.

 

The Blue Jays patched the third base hole with Corey Koskie, and Shea Hillenbrand will help ease shore up the lineup. Between Hillenbrand, Hinske, Frank Catalanotto, and Eric Crozier, the Blue Jays should be able to develop a patchwork at DH/1B.

 

The Blue Jays also have several fine young prospects on the rise. Three of them have already reached the Jays' starting lineup. Alexis Rios, Russ Adams, and Guillermo Quiroz form a trio that will not see free agency until after the 2010 season. All three players appeared on Baseball Prospectus' top 50 prospect list last season, and all three have all-star potential. In addition, Gabe Gross, another prospect, should form a platoon this season with Reed Johnson, strengthening the Blue Jays at left field.

 

David Bush breezed through the minors and earned himself a place in the Blue Jays' rotation. Bush features excellent control, and he struck out nearly a battar an inning in the minor leagues. Along with Halladay and Ted Lilly, the Blue Jays can count on a solid 1-2-3 punch in their rotation.

 

Brandon League is another intriguing prospect in the Blue Jays' organization. League was converted to a reliever last season. His specialty pitch is a hard sinker. League is an extreme ground ball pitcher, as evidenced by his incredibly low home run rates. League has only surrendered nine bombs in 364 minor league innings. League features a solid strikeout rate, good control, and he'll hit AAA this season. If he performs well, he could land in the Blue Jays bullpen by the All-Star break.

 

Steve Andrade is another interesting prospect. He is usually not considered a high prospect, but his minor league numbers are eye popping. 286 strikeouts in 200 innings, alongside only 66 walks, and eight home runs. The Toronto Blue Jays claimed Andrade off waivers from the Anaheim Angels. If Andrade can keep up his numbers, he could land in the Blue Jays bullpen as well this season.

 

Keep an eye on Dustin McGowan. He missed most of the season with Tommy John surgery, but he still remains an interesting prospect, and has dominating stuff at times.

 

The Blue Jays also flipped Kevin Cash to the Devil Rays for Chad Gaudin. At first glance, Gaudin looks like a decent middle reliever. 82 2/3 IP, 53 Ks, and 32 BBs. Remember however, he is doing this at the age of 21, when most pitchers are plying their trade at Single A. I think Gaudin has the potential to be a very good reliever down the line.

 

Whether the Blue Jays can overcome the Red Sox and Yankees remains to be seen. But I think within a year or two, they can compete with any other team in the American League. As long as they win as many games as they can, they can compete, and with a little luck (or a Yankees collapse), they can sneak in one of these days.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Are you doing this with every team, or just the Blue Jays?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Just the Blue Jays, because a loyal reader requested it.

[Guest Failed Mascot]

Josh Phelps was traded to Cleveland in like June or July. So to be fair he didn't have a whole season to make an impact or rebound with them from his early slump.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Josh Phelps was traded to Cleveland in like June or July. So to be fair he didn't have a whole season to make an impact or rebound with them from his early slump.

Yes, but that they traded him for virtually nothing has to count against his overall contribution.

[Guest Failed Mascot]

I think he's a good platoon DH and power right handed hitter off the bench. He absolutely mashes LHP

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I think he's a good platoon DH and power right handed hitter off the bench. He absolutely mashes LHP

He should, but he didn't last year. And that was the very problem with the Blue Jays. A bunch of talented players, who just took a step back for some reason.

[Guest Failed Mascot]

I think a deadly DH combo would have been Travis Hafner and Josh Phelps. Makes me wonder why Cleveland let him go.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Hafner makes a deadly DH combo on his own.

[Precious Roy 0]

I stated my opinion on the Jays in the off-season thread, but basically I think 2005 is a development year for them, and I don't see any way they can reach .500. Eric Hinske returning to form would be nice, but that's a crapshoot, and the team is pretty average overall. If Halladay, Wells, Cat and Lilly have great seasons it's still up to the role players to carry them past Baltimore, who has a better offense and bullpen at first glance, and I think Ponson will rebound this year. Plus Tampa has some legit talent and a good manager, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Toronto finish last in the AL East.

[treble 0]

I think Quiroz is probably going to start the year in AAA, unless Zaun or Myers gets hurt in Spring Training. And, I think unless Reed Johnson is dumped somewhere, Gross may start in AAA, too. Wells and Rios have their 2 spots in the OF filled, and Catalonotto and Johnson will probably platoon in LF. Probably better for him to get more playing time in the minors than being a 4th or 5th outfielder in the bigs.

 

Really, though, I don't think there's anyway they can be as bad as they were last year. At least, I hope not, it was quite depressing to watch.

 

Oh, and Phelps SUCKED last year except for a stretch of about a week where he killed the ball.

[Guest Failed Mascot]

Hafner makes a deadly DH combo on his own.

Not against LHP. His numbers dive big time.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

I hope you are right, but I am not exactly optimistic.

[CanadianChris 0]

Thanks Al.

 

One thing that strikes me from this analysis is that this year is pretty much the polar opposite of last year. Last year, the Blue Jays could be pencilled in for at least 85 wins unless many, many things went wrong. They did, and the Blue Jays finished dead last for the first time in over two decades.

 

This year, the Jays can be pencilled in for 85 wins...if everything goes right. This team has virtually no margin for error here. With the way this division is, I honestly can't see how this team can contend for anything higher than fourth place.

 

I really hope you're right and I'm wrong, but this doesn't look like a year the Jays can realistically hope to contend. If they can bring the prospects along and they develop as quickly as I'm hoping, they could make some noise in 2006.

[Guest Failed Mascot]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays trade off Miguel Batista and Frank Catillinato at the deadline for prospects that could help in 06.