My NFL Outlook (AFC)
KKK isn't the only one that can make wild stabs in the dark when it comes to the upcoming NFL season.
AFC East
Order of Finish:
New England
Miami (WC)
Buffalo
New York Jets
Thoughts: Miami's improved under Nick Sabin, I'll give you that...but I'm not quite ready to pull the plug on New England's division title hopes like a lot of pundits are. Miami's going to win 8+ games this year, but lest we forget, Dante Culpepper SUCKED last year before his knee injury (4 TDs to 8 INTs). Now, that may have been because the Vikings had absolutely nobody to replace Randy Moss, but it's something to think about. Plus, if Culpepper goes down again, Miami's hopes fall to Joey Harrington.....I don't think many Dolphins fans want to think about that right now.
As far as New England, the only concerns I have are defensive; that offense is going to be murderous this year if the preseason is any indication. A healthy Corey Dillon being spelled by rookie Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk coming in for 3rd down situations and as another receiver? Yikes. Plus, this is the year Ben Watson puts up Tony Gonzalez-type numbers. As we saw in the Denver playoff game last year, this kid can FLY. The Patriots will be employing a lot of 2 TE sets using Watson and Daniel Graham where Graham stays in to block (his strength) while Watson gives Brady a nice fat target to throw to. Like I said, the only concerns I have is with the D, more specifically, the linebackers and secondary. Their success depends on the health of both Tedy Bruschi (wrist injury) and Rodney Harrison (knee torn to shreds). If they perform in their leadership roles, the D will be successful. As far as the "devastating" loss of Adam Vinatieri: he's a kicker, folks. Gostkowski looks like he can get the job done. Let's worry about him in "clutch" situations when we get there.
I put the Bills above the Jets solely because the Bills D is better and they have Willis McGahee. Neither team is cracking the 5 win mark.
AFC North
Order of Finish:
Pittsburgh
Cincinatti
Baltimore
Cleveland
Thoughts: This may be the weakest division in the AFC this year. Too many question marks for every team to really say that any of these teams are going to win more than 10-11 games. Cleveland will remain in the dregs of the league, Baltimore's defense is aging quickly and McNair may be on the downside of his career (he's better than Boller though). Who knows if Carson Palmer is fully recovered from his knee injury (Culpepper had a three month or so head start on him) and their defense I don't think is going to cause nearly as many turnovers as they did last year. Pittsburgh wins the division, but let's face it, they had all the breaks fall their way in the playoffs. Cincy losing their QB and falling apart, Indy's stupidity, Denver not really deserving to be in the title game (but I'm not bitter. Oh no.) and Seattle putting on one of the worst Super Bowl performances in recent memory. That's not happening this year, I'm afraid.
AFC South
Order of Finish:
Indianapolis
Jacksonville (WC)
Houston
Tennessee
Thoughts: The Colts are going to win the division again....but it's not going to be as easy as it has been. As kkk said, their window of opportunity is closing fast. Jacksonville AND Houston are going to steal divisional wins from them, I think. No Edge is going to impact the offense more than people would like to believe as it remains to be seen if their rookie RB can handle Peyton's tendency to audible out of every single play. Marvin Harrison is aging, so expect Manning to look at guys like Reggie Wayne more often. Jacksonville is going to be the same "Sexy pick that doesn't quite meet expectations" team they've been for the last few years while the Texans will improve to the 5-7 win range. Vince Young will experience growing pains in Tennessee, as his style is going to be tough to translate into an NFL offense.
AFC West
Order of Finish:
Denver
Kansas City
San Diego
Oakland
Thoughts: The Raiders will be lucky to win one game in this division. Aaron Brooks will be pining for the simple insults like fans wearing paper bags with "'Aints" written on them by the third or fourth home game. That being said, I believe this division falls the same way kkk says: San Diego will struggle with an unproven QB at the helm, I'm not completely sold on KC's defense being THAT improved as well as Larry Johnson completely carrying the offense when guys like Trent Green and Tony Gonzalez start to decline. Denver's pretty much the only really solid team of the division with a running game (featuring the fantasy stud du jour), Plummer not making nearly as many mistakes as he used to (and Jay Cutler waiting in the wings, who looks like the most NFL ready QB of the guys drafted this year) and a decent defense.
I'll look at the NFC whenever I post next.
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