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Bowwwlllsss, Part 2

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MAC

 

Conference bids: Motor City, GMAC or MPC Computers, International

 

Locked up a bid: None

 

Near locks: Ohio

 

On the bubble: Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan

 

The MAC is very hard to figure out when it comes to bowl bids because outside of the MAC title game winner, no one is guarenteed a bowl. In the past the loser of the MAC title game has often been passed up for the MAC's other bowl bid. This year they now have three bids so I would figure that both division winners will go to bowl games but I don't know that for sure. Now the reason why I picked Ohio as the one near lock is they are a good bet to run the table through the rest of the regular season with Miami U. and Eastern Michigan (2-15 combined) still on the schedule and Akron at home as being the only potential stumbling block. Considering they haven't been to a bowl game since 1968 I figure even if they lose the title game, at 9 wins they'll get one of the other two bids. If Kent State hadn't lost to Ohio at home last week they would all but locked up the East division but they probably are the next best bet to get a bowl bid. The winner of the CMU/WMU game on November 10th will likely decide the West division champ. The Garrett Wolfe factor makes NIU an attractive team but at 5-4 and still with CMU on the schedule I don't think a 7-5 record will get the job done although they could get an at large bid. Akron, Ball State, and Bowling Green are all likely done but are still mathematically alive in their division.

 

Mountain West

 

Conference bids: Las Vegas, Armed Forces, Poinsettia, New Mexico

 

Locked up a bid: BYU

 

Near locks: TCU

 

On the bubble: Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

 

Now with non-BCS conference teams getting in with a 6-6 record will be a dicey proposition but the odds that BYU will collapse and lose four in a row is just about zilch. TCU still has five games left to get to seven wins and they very likely will get to 9 or 10 wins. Utah should get to that all important seven wins although an upset at Air Force could be possible and they'd be in trouble trying to get win #7 against BYU. For a very obvious reason New Mexico has the best shot at getting in at 6-6 if no more than three teams in the conference finish with a winning record, which is very possible. Wyoming has San Diego State and UNLV left but a trip to BYU will doom their bowl chances. Air Force has a must win this week against Army to have any hope at a bowl as they still have Notre Dame, Utah, and TCU still on the schedule. Colorado State has BYU, Utah, and TCU the next three weeks so they're toast.

 

Pac-10

 

Conference bids: Rose/BCS, Holiday, Sun, Las Vegas, Emerald, Hawaii

 

Locked up a bid: California, Oregon, USC, Washington State

 

Near locks: None

 

On the bubble: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington

 

Now how could I list Oregon State on the bubble after beating USC? It's pretty easy. For one before this past weekend they were probably considered the 8th best team in the confernece. Second because of a trip to Hawaii they have a 13 game schedule so that means still need two more wins to go bowling. They have one guarenteed win against Stanford but none besides that. Beat ASU this week and then they are a lock but have a letdown and it could get interesting but I'd say they are very good bet to pick up the two wins. If ASU wins Saturday then they lock up a bid but then they get Wazzu and UCLA at home before their rivalry game against U of A. UCLA has a very tough schedule left with road dates to Berkely and Tempe left, then of course USC. They have to beat the Beavers at home on November 11th to have a prayer. Washington has Stanford still left but appears done without Isaiah Stanback and they'll need to upset Oregon or Wazzu on the road to get in. U of A is listed simply because they are technically still alive.

 

SEC

 

Conference bids: Sugar/BCS, Capital One, Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A (double ugh), Music City, Liberty, Independence

 

Locked up a bid: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee

 

Near locks: South Carolina

 

On the bubble: Kentucky, Vanderbilt

 

You know I admit the SEC in terms of overall consistency of putting a large number of teams in the Top 25 every year, they are the best conference and I admit their fans travel better than any conference. But god damn it's almost unfair how they get so many of top non-BCS bowls. Anyways the Gamecocks have Middle Tennessee left on their scheduled so they will get win #6 but that might be it for them especially if they don't beat Arkansas this week. Kentucky has a better shot than one would think but they still have UL Monroe and they get Vandy at home. Beat Vandy and they'll be bowling although might have to get an at large bid. Vanderbilt on the other hand has to beat Kentucky and then pull off an upset of Florida or Tennessee. Just a hunch the Vols will be looking to put a beating on them for last year's upset that cost them a bowl game.

 

Sun Belt

 

Conference bids: New Orleans

 

Locked up a bid: None

 

Near locks: None

 

On the bubble: Arkanas State, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee, Troy, UL Lafayette

 

Awww my favorite conference. It's simple win the conference, you go to New Orleans. By pure luck a couple of years ago they got two teams into bowls but don't expect that to happen even with a record 62 bids now. Everyone listed is still alive in the title race but it likely will come down to the MTSU/Troy game on November 25th as to who gets the bid.

 

WAC

 

Conference bids: BCS?, MPC Computers or GMAC, Hawaii, New Mexico

 

Locked up a bid: Boise State

 

Near locks: Hawaii, Nevada

 

On the bubble: Idaho, San Jose State

 

Obviously a lot is riding on Boise State getting into the BCS as it will give the conference four bids if they do. Hawaii should lock up a bid this week against Utah State and we know what bowl they are going to. There is a scenerio where Nevada could get left out if they get upset by Idaho and somehow San Jose State upsets Boise thus killing the chance of four bids but it's a longshot. Now who would have thought San Jose State would be in a good position to get a bowl bid while Fresno State would already be dead at the end of October? It's a shame for the Spartans that the Silicon Valley Bowl doesn't still exsist. Their most important game left is a trip to Idaho on November 25th which could decide the final bid. If BSU gets upset by Nevada though then they are both screwed.

 

Independents

 

Conditional bids: BCS/Cotton/Gator/Sun/Houston/All Other Big East bids (Notre Dame), Car Care (Navy), Poinsettia (Army)

 

Locked up a bid: Notre Dame

 

Near locks: Navy

 

On the bubble: Army

 

Navy and Army are pretty much like BCS conference teams in that if they get to 6-6 they are going bowling. Navy has Duke, Eastern Michigan, and Temple before the Army game so just a hunch they'll pick up at least one more win. Now what will be interesting is their conditional bid with the Car Care Bowl because that could be where Rutgers would go and it might cause some CONTROVERSY~ if the they would pass on a 9-2 Scarlet Knights team to take Navy but that is likely what will happen. Army has to run the table which includes winning at Notre Dame so the Poinsettia Bowl will be looking elsewhere for an at large team.

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