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Bowl Bubble Update

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Here's a quick revision to the Bowl Bubble entry after yesterday's results.

 

ACC

 

Bowls: BCS/Orange, Chick-Fil-A, Gator, Champs Sports, Music City, Meineke Car Care, Emerald, Humanitarian

 

Locks: Boston College, Clemson, Virginia, Virginia Tech

 

Near Locks: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest

 

On the Bubble: Maryland, Miami, N.C. State

 

Maryland's upset of Boston College has increased the chances of possibly ten bowl eligible teams in the conference which means getting win #7 is even more important now. I still don't see FSU getting passed over at 6-6 as at worst they'll get grabbed by the Humanitarian Bowl. Miami looks finished after last night's debacle against UVA as they show no signs that they can pull off a road upset of Virginia Tech or Boston College.

 

Big XII

 

Bowls: BCS/Fiesta, Cotton, Holiday, Gator or Sun, Alamo, Insight, Independence, Texas

 

Locks: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

 

Near Locks: None

 

On the Bubble: Colorado, Kansas State, Nebraska

 

Colorado gets bumped down to the bubble after their loss to Iowa State, who's suddenly become a bit of a pest in the conference. Their game against Nebraska in two weeks will now be for a bowl bid for the winner. Because of the Colorado and Kansas State losses, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M have locked up bids. The conference will definitely get two teams in BCS bowls which gives them nine potential bids and that will be the maximum number of bowl eligible teams the conference can get at this point. The Texas Bowl can become an open bid of K-State fails to become bowl eligible.

 

Big East

 

Bowls: BCS, Gator or Sun, Meineke Car Care, International, PapaJohns.com

 

Locks: Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, West Virginia

 

Near Locks: Rutgers

 

On the Bubble: Louisville, Pittsburgh

 

Only change here is USF locking up a bid as expected. Rutgers locks up a bid if they take care of Pitt at home next week.

 

Big Ten

 

Bowls: BCS/Rose, Capital One, Outback, Alamo, Champs Sports, Insight, Motor City

 

Locks: Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Ohio State

 

Near Locks: Iowa, Purdue

 

On the Bubble: Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern

 

Big Ten is the one conference that wraps up it's season next week so we will probably have a pretty good idea of who is going where after Saturday. The losses of Ohio State and Michigan have crippled the odds that the conference gets two BCS bids although there is still a slim chance if Michigan wins their game as OSU still could end up in the Top 14 if enough things go their way the final two weeks. Michigan winning would also be great news for the WAC, which I'll get to. If they don't get two in the BCS that means as many as three teams from the conference could be eligible but end up staying home so win #7 is an absolute must. Iowa has the easiest game with Western Michigan at home while Northwestern has the longest odds with a trip to Illinois.

 

Edit: I bumped Purdue down to near lock as if they lose to Indiana they drop to 7-5 and there might not be a bid available if enough of the six win teams get that seventh win.

 

Conference USA

 

Bowls: Liberty, GMAC, Texas, PapaJohns.com, Hawaii, New Orleans

 

Locks: Houston, Tulsa, UCF

 

Near Locks: East Carolina, Memphis, Southern Miss

 

On the Bubble: UTEP

 

Memphis' surprising win over Southern Miss almost assures the conference will get a very undeserving 6th bid as the Tigers finish with UAB and SMU at home. I dropped ECU to near lock after their shocking loss to pitiful Marshall but they should beat Tulane at home to get win #7.

 

MAC

 

Bowls: Motor City, GMAC, International

 

Locks: None

 

Near Locks: Bowling Green, Central Michigan

 

On the Bubble: Ball State, Buffalo, Miami of Ohio, Toledo

 

Only change is Ohio's bubble bursting. Buffalo is 4-6 but I think they are still mathematically alive to win the East division and I'm too lazy to look up the MAC tiebreaks so I'll just leave them there.

 

Mountain West

 

Bowls: Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, New Mexico

 

Locks: Air Force, BYU

 

Near Locks: New Mexico, Utah

 

On the Bubble: San Diego State, TCU, Wyoming

 

Somebody should force Conference USA to give up one of their bids to the Mountain West. There's a potentially odd situation setting up in this conference which is why I'm not locking up Utah and New Mexico just yet. TCU still has a realistic chance at seven wins which means Utah or New Mexico need to get to eight wins to breathe easy. They play each other next week and for Utah it is much more important that they win because they finish at BYU. New Mexico on the other hand finishes with UNLV at home.

 

Pac-10

 

Bowls: BCS/Rose, Holiday, Sun, Las Vegas, Emerald, Armed Forces

 

Locks: Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, USC

 

Near Locks: None

 

On the Bubble: Arizona, UCLA, Washington State

 

Oregon State locked up a bid while Stanford and Washington's slim hopes ended. Already went over UCLA's plight last week and they almost beat ASU but that might have been their last hope. If Wazzu upsets the Beavers at home next week then they still would have a shot in the Apple Cup and UW might have lost Jake Locker for the season last night to a neck injury.

 

SEC

 

Bowls: BCS/Sugar, Capital One, Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A, Music City, Liberty, Independence

 

Locks: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee

 

Near Locks: Mississippi State

 

On the Bubble: Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

 

Kentucky locked up a bid while South Carolina might find itself in some serious trouble now due to Mississippi State's win over Alabama. Even with the loss the Tide will pick up win #7 against UL Monroe next week so they are still a lock. I've moved the Bulldogs up to a near lock as win #7 should be a given in two weeks against Ole Miss. Arkansas is now on the bubble as if they don't beat the Bulldogs at home next week they will have to upset LSU to lock up a bid. South Carolina's bowl hopes may now rest on beating red hot Clemson at home in two weeks. Vanderbilt will have to beat Tennessee and Wake Forest to have any hope as there is no chance they grab a bid at 6-6 over any of the other teams.

 

Sun Belt

 

Bowls: New Orleans

 

Locks: None

 

Near Locks: Troy

 

On the Bubble: Florida Atlantic

 

MTSU and Arkansas State were eliminated this week so the conference title will come down to the Troy/FAU game on December 1st. Troy is at seven wins now so they would have a shot at an open bid now if they were upset.

 

WAC

 

Bowls: BCS?, Humanitarian, Hawaii, New Mexico

 

Locks: Boise State, Hawaii

 

Near Locks: Fresno State

 

On the Bubble: Louisiana Tech, Nevada, San Jose State

 

Only change is New Mexico State's bubble bursting. As I alluded to in the Big Ten entry, everyone in the conference should be rooting for Michigan to beat Ohio State. If that happens it will all but guarantee a BCS bid for the winner of the Boise State/Hawaii game as there is a rule in the BCS that if a non-BCS conference champ finishes in the Top 16 and is ranked higher than any other BCS conference champ they get an automatic bid. Now of course either still has a shot at finishing in the Top 14 if they win out which also give them a BCS bid. All that being said the status of Colt Brennan could throw a lot of things in flux as he has to be doubtful for their game at Nevada on Friday. If he's out and they lose that game, then say Brennan comes back for the Boise State game and the Warriors win, then the WAC will screw itself out a BCS bid.

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