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Bowl Bubble III

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ACC

 

Bowls: BCS/Orange, Chick-Fil-A, Gator, Champs Sports, Music City, Meineke Car Care, Emerald, Humanitarian

 

Locks: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

 

Near Locks: None

 

On the Bubble: Maryland, Miami, N.C. State

 

Maryland/N.C. State is a loser goes home game this Saturday and the winner likely goes to a bowl. I only say likely because if Miami some how gets it's shit together and upsets Boston College that will give the conference nine eligible teams with eight bids. Even if Miami upsets BC they are a longshot as they played in the Humanitarian Bowl last year so they'd have to hope the Emerald Bowl grabs them over a 7-5 team and then the Humanitarian would have to pick that team over the Maryland/N.C. State winner. You can't officially rule out any conference yet at getting two BCS bids but the only scenario the ACC has is if Virginia Tech beats Virginia this week and then loses to Boston College in the conference title game. The Hokies conceivably could still be in the Top 14 at the end of the year, and definitely Top 18 if the BCS is forced to expand the at large pool. Now assuming Miami loses and the Virginia Tech scenario plays out where they get a BCS at large bid then that would leave the Humantarian Bowl as an open bid.

 

Big XII

 

Bowls: BCS/Fiesta, Cotton, Holiday, Gator or Sun, Alamo, Insight, Independence, Texas

 

Locks: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

 

Near Locks: None

 

On the Bubble: Colorado, Kansas State, Nebraska

 

I mistakenly said last week Oklahoma State had locked up a bid as for some reason I thought they already had six wins but they do. No changes from last week, Colorado/Nebraska will play for a bid on Friday, and Kansas State needs to beat Fresno State to become eligible. If they lose the Texas Bowl will be an open bid as there's no scenario where the Big XII doesn't get two BCS bids.

 

Big East

 

Bowls: BCS, Gator or Sun, Meineke Car Care, International, PapaJohns.com

 

Locks: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia

 

Near Locks: None

 

On the Bubble: Louisville

 

Rutgers locked up a bid with their win over Pitt. Louisville needs UConn to beat West Virginia to win the Big East as that would likely give the conference two BCS bids as the Mountaineers would probably still be around the bottom of the Top 10. Then the Cardinals need to beat Rutgers a week from Thursday to become eligible. If West Virginia wraps up the Big East this Saturday, Louisville is done.

 

Big Ten

 

Bowls: BCS/Rose, Capital One, Outback, Alamo, Champs Sports, Insight, Motor City

 

Locks: Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Ohio State

 

Near Locks: Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue

 

On the Bubble: None

 

I have the three 7-5 teams as near locks because the Big Ten as things stand at the moment won't have enough bids for all three. Now it is still possible that Illinois, if enough things go there way, can slip into a BCS bowl which then would give the conference enough bids. If that doesn't happen Purdue is probably the odd team out but they'd be a good bet to grab the likely Armed Forces Bowl open bid. What they have to worry about is if the SEC ends up with a 7-5 team without a conference bid and if the Armed Forces ends up being the only open bid which then the Boilermakers could be sitting at home.

 

Conference USA

 

Bowls: Liberty, GMAC, Texas, PapaJohns.com, Hawaii, New Orleans

 

Locks: East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UCF

 

Near Locks: None

 

On the Bubble: None

 

Everything is set here beyond where everyone is going. Southern Miss and Memphis are ranked 86th and 90th respectively in the BCS yet they are locked up for bowls.

 

MAC

 

Bowls: Motor City, GMAC, International

 

Locks: Bowling Green

 

Near Locks: None

 

On the Bubble: Ball State, Central Michigan, Miami of Ohio

 

So in the MAC not everyone plays the some number of conference games, some play seven and some play eight. Now because of that the divisions are decided by divisional record only, not conference record. Follow me so far? Central Michigan and Ball State, the 1st and 2nd place teams in the West division, don't play each other this year. Who the fuck came up with this? As for the bids, Bowling Green is going, um, bowling and the rest is a mess.

 

Mountain West

 

Bowls: Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, New Mexico

 

Locks: Air Force, BYU, Utah

 

Near Locks: None

 

On the Bubble: New Mexico, TCU

 

While Conference USA steals bids, someone in the Mountain West is probably going to have it's heart broken and it will likely be an 8-4 New Mexico team (assuming they beat 2-9 UNLV). Now you'd think New Mexico would get to go to the New Mexico Bowl but the bowl put a rule in for itself that it couldn't pick the Lobos more than onece in three years. So because of that if TCU gets win #7 as expected over San Diego State, there will likely be no bowl game for New Mexico unless there ends up being three open bids or enough of the 6-5 teams lose their last game then they'd need two as obviously Purdue would get one before them. Again Memphis is ranked 90th in the country and is going to a bowl game, while an eight win team (or maybe an 7-5 SEC or Big Ten team) probably isn't.

 

Pac-10

 

Bowls: BCS/Rose, Holiday, Sun, Las Vegas, Emerald, Armed Forces

 

Locks: Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, USC

 

Near Locks: None

 

On the Bubble: Arizona, UCLA

 

Before Dennis Dixon went all Boobie Miles on Thursday, the conference seemed assured two BCS bids. Now it's still a good bet but we have to wait and see how Oregon recovers this week against UCLA. If the conference doesn't get two bids that would be bad news for the open bids hopefuls as it seemed for a while now not only the Armed Forces Bowl would be open but also the Emerald Bowl. I'm reading conflicting reports where some indicate the Emerald picks before the Las Vegas Bowl this year which would leave Vegas open but I'm not so sure about that. In any event if Oregon is a shell of it's former self now without Dixon, then UCLA can get win #6. U of A is suddenly hot but they'll need to pull off another big upset against rival ASU in order to get eligible for the first time since 1998.

 

SEC

 

Bowls: BCS/Sugar, Capital One, Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A, Music City, Liberty, Independence

 

Locks: Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee

 

Near Locks: Arkansas, Kentucky

 

On the Bubble: Alabama, Mississippi State, South Carolina

 

I had Alabama as a lock the last couple of weeks as I though there was no way in hell they'd lose to ULM. Well so much for that. Now the conference is all but guaranteed two BCS bids so they'll have nine total but we could end up with nightmare scenario where we have six 7-5 teams with five available bids between them. Now any 7-5 SEC team will get picked over all others trying to get an open bid but there are scenarios where there could end up being no open bids so because of that I'm going conservative here. Auburn I have as a lock as I feel they'd be safe at 7-5 in that scenario while I could see Kentucky or Arkansas getting snubbed in this nightmare scenario. Hopefully either Auburn beats Alabama and/or Clemson beats South Carolina to send one of those schools to a very long offseason. The biggest shame would be if Mississippi State got snubbed in the nightmare scenario.

 

Sun Belt

 

Bowls: New Orleans

 

Locks: None

 

Near Locks: Troy

 

On the Bubble: Florida Atlantic

 

No changes, Troy/FAU play each other December 1st for the conference unless FAU is stunned by winless FIU this week. Hopefully Troy avoids the upset in that game as they deserve to go to a bowl game and a better one than the New Orleans Bowl against one of the awful 6-6 C-USA teams but that's not gonna happen.

 

WAC

 

Bowls: BCS?, Humanitarian, Hawaii, New Mexico

 

Locks: Boise State, Hawaii

 

Near Locks: Fresno State

 

On the Bubble: Louisiana Tech, Nevada

 

Of course the big game is this Friday. If your Louisiana Tech and Nevada your probably rooting for Hawaii as their chances are better than Boise's at getting into the Top 12 to get the BCS bid and a 4th bid for the conference. Neither has any business going to a bowl game mind you.

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