Lei Tong

Fedor defeated two top 5 fighters of, once again, a very weak division. Noguiera has long made a habit of making bad fighters look decent, and mediocre fighters look like contenders. Mirko, meanwhile, had feasted on some Top 15-20 fare in between losing to his best opposition and Kevin Randleman. While incredibly skilled, Fedor's domination of the division has as much to do with the utter shittiness of it as his skill level, and wins over TK, Mirko & another hopeless challenger at year's end doesn't say "Fighter of the Year" to me.

Fedor has 2 wins this year in MMA's weakest division, one over an un-ranked fighter who was just defeated by Mike Kyle. Quick list: Fighter of the Year: Muaricio "Shogun" Rua Fight of the Year: Caol Uno vs. Joachim Hansen KO of the Year: James Irvin's flying knee vs. Terry Martin Submission of the Year: Genki Sudo's armbar to triangle choke vs. Hiroyuki Takaya Upset of the Year: Hideo Tokoro def. Alxandre Franca "Pequneo" Noguiera via TKO

Lightweights (Reserve Match) Charles Bennet vs. Dokojonosuke Mishima Unless Bennet can somehow get Mishima hooked on whatever he's on himself, he's going to get taken down early and most likely submitted in short order. Then again, Mishima is something of a goof-off with a questionable chin, but Bennet is simply too easy a target on the mat to resist. -Mishima via submission, Rd.1 Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Takanori Gomi A really bad match-up for Gomi. Kawajiri throws powerful, straight counters that will hurt even Gomi's iron jaw, and has good enough wrestling to put Gomi on his back while relying on his superb takedown defense to keep Gomi from doing the same. Also, Kawajiri is a good guard passer and has good G&P from every position. Gomi's jaw & KO power will keep him competitive, but I think Kawajiri takes it. -Kawajiri via unaninmous decision Naoyuki Kotani vs. Luiz Azaredo See Naoyuki. See Naoyuki get pummled by anyone resembling a competitive lightweight. See Luiz advance easily. -Azeredo via TKO, Rd.1 Joachim Hansen vs. Yves Edwards Yves has been loonsig better and better on the ground over the years, and though Hansen still has the decided edge if this turns into a ground battle, Yves has the tools to survive Joachim's submission attmepts. Hansen isn't afraid to throw leather on his feet, and though Yves has been overly tentative in the past, I think Hansen will get caught in a prolonged striknig exhance late. -Edwards via TKO, Rd.2 Jens Pulver vs. Hayato Sakurai I have worlds of respect for Jens, but 155lbs+ is not the place for him. He still carries enough power to KO most people at this weight, but the size disadvantage he's likely to face here and in the future will cause him lots of trouble. Sakurai isn't the same epitome of awesomeness he once was, but he's still got well-rounded skills, and now no worries of being completely overpowered like at 167-185lbs. -Sakurai via submission, Rd.2 (LW Semifinal) Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Luiz Azeredo Kawajiri doesn't have Gomi's stubborn pride to try and beat Luiz standing, and after a tough fight with Takanori I expect him to do what he needs to do: take Azaredo down, pass, mount, pummel. -Kawajiri via TKO, Rd.2 (LW Semifinal) Yves Edwards vs. Hayato Sakurai Woe is the day I can't favor Sakurai to make the finals of a LW tournament, but that's what we have here. Yves height and reach advantage could give Sakurai problems in the striking department, and though not entirely unrealistic, I have a hard time seeing Sakurai G&P'ing Yves. Instead, I think Yves sprawls and brawls, battering Sakurai for the duration of the match. -Edwards via unanimous decision Welterweights (Middleweights) (Reserve Match) Paulo Filho vs. Ryuta Sakurai Gono called this exactly right when he asked 'What the hell is (Filho) doing in a reserve match?" Granted, I have no real love for Filho or his style, but he's a skilled ground fighter who could take out a good majority of the field if given the chance. Instead, he's relegated to beating the piss out of Ryuta in the reserve match. Sakurai has for far too long relied on his physical abilities to garner him wins (and even then none-too-often did that happen), and now he's fighting someone not just more skilled but equally as strong as well. Should be a relative squash. -Filho via submission, Rd.1 Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Phil Baroni Though "smart gameplan" has never been a phrase I've equated with Minowa's unorthodox style, I don't see him being dumb enough to waste his energy (and risking another KO) via prolonged striking excanges. While Baroni's a good wrestler and has toughed out a few bad positions and submissions in the past, Minowa is very good at catching guys with their pants down on the ground, especially with leglocks. -Minowa via submission, Rd.1 Murilo Bustamante vs. Masanori Suda Though viewed by many as a favorite to make it to the finals, I think Bustamante's MMA career is nearly over. Frankly, the Bustamante of old would've schooled Ryuta horribly, but instead, we saw an old, shopworn Busta struggle with a neverwas. Suda himself is most likely in the twilight of his career, but he's still a competitive MW with some good ground skills and some pop in his punch. I don't expect him to especially punish Busta, but I think Suda will give him grief throughout. -Suda via majority decision Dan Henderson vs. Ryo Chonan It would seem Chonan went from being one of MMA's most protected fighters to a marked man in short order, but in reality, I think this match-up isn't going to be nearly the devastating win for Henderson many are expecting. Much like Busta, I think Dan's career is catching up with him, and while some would expect a Couture-esque career rejuvination from going down in weight, I think Randy was more of the exception than the rule. Chonan, is if nothing else, extremely scrappy, and should keep on bringing it to Dan, even as Dan continouly looks to unload with that big right. I see Dan struggling to finish, but winning convincingly nonetheless. -Henderson via unanimous decision Akihiro Gono vs. Daniel Acacio - GONO! GONO!! GONO!!!.... ahem. Anyways, Gono is good counter striker who's no stranger to Chute Boxe fighters. Though Shogun caught him cold a while back, Shogun has gone on to be quite the player at 205, and even then Gono gave Mauricio some problems. Acacio fits the stereotypical CBA mold of "wild, aggressive striker," though he's also shown a knack for getting out of bad grappling situations. In the end, I think Gono has the tools to give Daniel problems both standing and on the ground, countering when he can and wrestling when he needs to. -Gono via unanimous decision (Welterweight semifinal) Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Masanori Suda Pancrase vs. Shooto, pt.57. Few expect to see this semifinal, but I'm smelling upsets in this tournament. Anyways, I question Minowa's gas tank is still a question, and though Suda is no stranger to humiliating defeats, I suspect he'll go tit-for-tat with Minowa standing or on the ground, and control the pace of the bout. -Suda via unanimous decision (Welterweight semifinal) Dan Henderson vs. Akihiro Gono Assuming the opening round bouts go as I've predicted, I think Dan will be a parody of his old self by the semis, looking simply to unload a big right hand, which Gono will see coming a mile away. Gono doesn't have the tools to put Dan away, but I could see him giving Dan enough problems to squeek a decision out. - Gono via split decision Other predictions?

The majority are "chokes" according to the Fight Finder, with an arm triangle, RNC & achilles lock specified. It sounds like he knows something about submission, but don't read too much into how many submissions a guy has unless it's against some pretty good comeptition. After all, Kerry Schall showed little technique the few times I've seen him fight, yet he's hailed as a "submission expert" on the national level.

Example # 176 of an American fighter being overrated based on conjecture and lack of competition:

My quick thoughts:

It many fighting sports, people of Samoan descent often seem to have pretty good chins (IE- hard as hell to knock out or even rock), David Tua being a good example.

Currently, I have the top 5 of the HW divsion ranked thusly: 1) Fedor Emelianenko 2) Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera 3) Andrei Arlovski 4) Mirko Filipovic 5) Sergei Kharitonov

In reality, UT wouldn't really be that much of a challenge for even a marginally skilled HW MMA fighter, unless he has a fair amount of training I'm completely unaware of, for a number of reasons: - It isn't rare for smaller yet more skilled HW's (especially wrestlers) to completely ragdoll larger, yet less skilled opponents through technique. - Taker is up there in age, and though no doubt probably in better shape than your average schmo, probably doesn't have the cardio to strike and/or grapple with a fully resisting opponent for an extended period of time. - Though I'm admittedly unaware of what experience UT has in real fights and how much MMA-related training he has, I don't think he's proficient enough in all of MMA's 3 ranges of fighting to not be seriously outclassed in at least one area. Average MMA HW def. Undertaker via TKO, Rd.1

Most of best Dutch grapplers at the time didn't really do all that well in MMA events, often being outclassed by Brazilian, Russian & Japanese counterparts in the submission department.

Yeah, Tuli was down, but not really from anything thrown by Gordeau. He tried a stereotypical "sumo rush," and beating Tank Abott by about 3 years, more or less tripped to the ground/against the cage. Gordeau finished him off shortly thereafter.

UFC 1: Gerard Gordeau (savate & karate practitioner) knocked marginal Samoan sumo wrestler Teila Tuli's tooth into Kathy Long's lap (while embedding another two into his foot) with a roundhouse kick, and followed it up with a right hand to the head. I don't remember which blow opened Tuli up.

It was elbows on Scott Morris, and rolling guillotines aside, calling a Ninjutsu stylist a "grappler" makes me cry.

IIRC, you can't use the point coming down from the air. Think of a trucker's horn-tooting motion. Frank Trigg threw some similar blows on Charuto, and got away with it. SInce Joe was coming in from the side with them, I think it was within the rules.

Expect Crushing.

Might as well get this thread started up again... Cage Rage tidbt: Vitor Ribeiro choked out Jean Silva in the 2nd round, further cementing his #2 LW ranking and also showing that he's not going to get much competition outside of Shooto or Bushido.

*drops vacation suitcases due to sudden anuerysm*

*cough*pisstests*cough* Sorry, nearly choked on my breakfast.

"And I won't even get into Luke Cummo, because he scares me and if I insult him he may track me down and eat my pets. " -Forrest Griffin Anyways, I'm going to make a wild guess and say the replacement HW is Dan Christison (teammate of Diego & Jardine). He's had a few decent wins over the past year and definitely fits the "giant" mold at 6'8. He's not exactly in great shape, but I don't think he should have much problem getting down to 265.

As said elsewhere: 7-1, with only the horseshoe/jetpack combination Irvin had hidden up his ass preventing me from a perfect night. - I was one of the few people who seemed to think GSP would push Trigg's shit in without much problem. It also makes me look like a genius for ranking GSP ahead of Trigg and putting him on P4P list. YOU KNOW!!! - Diego sucks, Gassaway just happens to suck even moreso. Look for Koscheck to leave Diego in dust in terms of skill by next year. - As I hoped (and echoing Blue here), MVA/COuture made for one of the most entertaining wrestler vs. wrestler style match-ups you're ever likely to see. MVA looked good early, but once his explosiveness left, it quickly became the Randy Show once again. - Sylvia looked more mobile and a bit quicker this time around, but the way he pulled straight back whenever Tra would come at him makes me think he's begging to get dropped by Andrei again. Like seemingly everyone else, it was a bit disconcerting to see a competitor have to leave on a stretcher, but hey, "this ain't hopscotch!"[/stupidfuckingrogancomment] - Hah, Horn lost. Now I don't have to see him on any LHW OR MW rankings. - Blue is right: I have a thing for overachieving wrestlers with weak G&P. Lindland is giving Henderson a run for his money for the spot of "Olympic Wrestler Who Gets Taken Down the Most," and may be getting a bit too high on his own submission prowess (repeated viewings of his ADCC matches should be required viewing at his next training camp). - Martin looked decent for a negro Oompa-Loompa, and I can see how he could've beaten Moore & Sonnen. Irvin still doesn't impress me much, though him flying trhough Martin on the flying knee and simply walking away immediately afterwards gave the finish a certain something. - I like Prangley, but though he thoroughly dominated Lutter, it's a bit dissapointing he couldn't put him away. I'll simply convince myself that his former Lion's Den ties made him give a little less than 100%.

Chuck's ground skills consist of getting back to his feet very quickly, or flopping around like a fish if it doesn't happen.

The odds of Liddell getting choke out again are slim compared to the odds of Horn choking on the big stage once again. It should also be noted that when Horn self-destructs, it's usually in impressively embarassing fashion. Groin tear shooting in for a takedown? Check. Submitted via standing guillotine? Check. Getting caught in a triangle double armbar that ONLY your's and your opponent's specific body types could make happen? Motherfuckin' check.

Courtesy of Bug Eyed Earl at UFC:

Schall, an early favorite? Forrest offers his thoughts on that statement:

Though the WW's are obviously going to be more talanted overall than the HW's, I'd actually think the WW winner is going to have a much harder time of it once in the UFC. The UFC HW division is relatively thin, so it's not hard to imagine a breakout HW doing well for himself quickly. On the other hand, the UFC has about 5 of the best WW's in the world currently in their ranks (Hughes, Trigg, St. Pierre, Parisyan, Diaz ). Unless the UFC either releases some of these guys or works around them very well, the TUF WW's will be walking onto Murderer's Row.