bobobrazil1984

Its debabtable if it makes them better. What's not debeatable for me is that I'm actually excited about their playoff run. I cant explain how dull the first two rounds of this pistons team had gotten. its like you spend the whole playoffs just praying they don't choke in the ECF this year

from what i understand, Denver offered it (as they did months ago), its not really in the works (yet?). I'm not sure why the Pistons would suddenly bite now when they didn't in the past, the team is looking fine so far. edit: err. looks i'm completely wrong. Apparently its already been submitted to the office? Wow. interesting. Well they'll have a lot of capspace in a few years.

This is true. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com has a pretty good chart showing which polls take cell phones into account and which ones use just landlines. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cel...-continued.html The orange polls take cell phones into account. In regards to the comment bout Gallup's two models, the "traditional" model i believe only takes into account people who've voted before, while expanded takes into account high turnout by new voters. All i got to say is if Obama loses somehow, the polling industry is going to lose all credibility. They were generally accurate in 2004 (traditional polling, not exit polls). Most polls showed Bush with roughly a 2 pt lead (he won pop. vote by something like 2.4 or 2.6 percent)

Why doesn't it surprise me at all that you would parrot this crap from Drudge without even checking if it's true or not? McCain had a 1 point lead in a single day of polling for a 3 day tracking poll, which Obama still leads by 5. Since a single day of said poll has a sample size of only 400 people, the margin of error for that 1-day result is huge (which is precisely why they do these 3 or 5 day tracking polls, to minimize the overall margin of error). Not only that, the poll in question uses party ID weightings that are extremely generous to the Republicans (it assumes that they are the same as in the 2004 election, which is clearly false). Really, the fact that McCain's best result is a 1 point lead on a single day of a tracking poll with a Republican lean just goes to show how far behind he is right now. Not to mention it was friday night HALLOWEEN. Meanwhile, Gallup's polls show a 10 point Obama lead.

Is anyone else amused how Drudge only uses the "traditional" Gallup poll (which only counts people who voted in previous elections) and just ignores the "expanded" model, which counts "new" voters? He even cut out the DESCRIPTION of the traditional poll on that little screenshot he put up. Having followed sites like pollster, realclear, and politico heavily in this campaign, i've found drudge less and less relevant to me, I mean i knew he was selective but it never really hit me exactly how ideologically selective he is.

The clip of McCain at the end there is fantastic. on Morris, ever notice the guy makes every prediction possible, almost to the point of changing weekly... then at the end, points and says "see I was right!"

factcheck.org staffers have actually been to Obama HQ and physically handled the certificate that was scanned online on obama website. They confirm it has the embossed logo and refuted all the other "its a fake because... the text is photoshopped, etc etc" comments from the scan. http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html Unless the State of Hawaii is complicit in this massive conspiracy and issued a false cert. of live birth, this is all a bunch of BS by nutcases. Not to mention the fact that states have to verify all this before they put a candidate on the actual ballot. Not to mention there is a scan of a birth announcement on that very day in a HAWAII NEWSPAPER. So now the conspiracy includes: The entire Hawaii state government Honalulu Advertiser newspaper from back in 1961, JUST IN CASE THIS KID WHO'S BIRTH WE'RE FAKING GROWS UP TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT Every state in the US when time came to put him on the ballot

pollster.com and 538 are both very good, I go to them regularly. realclearpolitics is pretty decent too though their poll display choices are sometimes odd, i like how easy it is to see the dynamics of the polls (RV vs LV, how many, etc etc). All 3 of those sites have pretty much made Drudge obsolete for me, as visiting them regularly really made it clear exactly how, shall we say, ideologically selective Drudge is when he tries to push a certain angle.

There's some rumblings out there that both campaign's internal poll numbers show a closer race in PA than the national polls we're seeing on realclearpolitics, which I think explains the decision. It's basically either win PA or have to win like 4 other smaller states that are trending Obama's way. He's campaigning heavily in "Hillary" districts (from the campaign). Its doubtful it works either way but its probably his last chance.

By the way, someone has been arrested for voter fraud. http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-fr...0,3842357.story Man arrested in voter fraud Mark Jacoby, who owns a firm hired by the California Republican Party, violated state registration laws, authorities say. By Evan Halper, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer October 20, 2008 SACRAMENTO -- The owner of a firm that the California Republican Party hired to register tens of thousands of voters this year was arrested in Ontario over the weekend on suspicion of voter registration fraud.

That was pretty much the only part of it that I thought was good. Thoughhh, if Palin herself had done the rap, that would have been the awesomest thing ever.

While it would never happen and I dont care one iota what Condi thinks about this election... this would be awesome just to hear the "SHE'S A RACIST!" apoplexy that the right would go into

I saw two segments, the opening and the Poehler rap. Was there any other segs with her that I missed? I thought her doing the raise the roof dance was actually pretty funny, the rest i could leave.

Wow. This actually hurt my feelings. It confims all too much of what I have always suspected about "Conservatives". I'm almost sorry to be right in my opinion about them. Maybe I'm over reacting but that sucked to watch. stuff like that is fairly common at various McCain/Palin rallies:

Uhura is just ridiculously hot

Badass.

if you recall, neither W nor Dick Cheney ever mentioned the Swiftboat stuff in the form of the attack. Their strategy was to make themselves seem above the fray, presidential, and let the 527s do the damage. This particular campaign doesn't seem to get how a whisper campaign works. McCain's constant angry expressions, scowling, and barely restrained anger didn't help either. Obama campaign picked the perfect catchphrase for McCain with "erratic". I mean, geez, the man just plays right into it. Remember, that much bally-hoo'd George Will column where he questioned McCain's temperment... happened BEFORE the economic meltdown and McCain's last two stunts.

Hey what does Joe the Plumber think about education???

What does Joe the Plumber think about abortion?

AGAIN with the goddamn plumber. WTF, this is like the 3rd time.

mccain is doing a little better here, being aggressive on economic issues without seeming too 'mean', but obama had a strong answer on ayers/acorn

The answer where he listed off all the names on that board was a great answer

Obama's negative attacks shouldn't be over the top and he doesn't need to out-do McCain in quanitity but he needs to have a few out there. Case in point, on Monday morning i saw someone read the paper and it said on the headline "Both candidates dredge up each other's past". If Obama had not made the media push for the Keating thing, I'll bet that headline would have been Ayers-specific, like "McCain campaign accuses Obama of terrorist connections" or something like that. By the by, if Obama runs ads, they should not be about Palin or his husband it should be about McCain.

Image from Wash. Post based on new analysis by the Tax Policy Center. Obama's clearly benefits the lower and middle class more. However, the righties do approach a valid point when they go on about income redistribution. It's unclear how much of the tax hike on the millionaires is just rolling back Bush's cuts and which is new. I could research that more, but I dont feel like it right now.