EVIL~! alkeiper

I should do a separate essay on statistics one of these days. I think the big danger is that there are no end all, be all statistics to judge a player. You can translate WHIP, yes. But you still have the problems that it's limited sample sizes, it's only marginally useful when evaluating future performance, it includes hits which are subject to wide variation, and such. A statistic is only a piece of evidence towards the larger goal of judging a player. I am at the point where I will cite a statistic when necessary. But the audience generally doesn't understand or particularly care about the statistic. They can do the legwork themselves if they need. What's important is the opinion or evaluation provided after the statistics.

Enough with the translated statistics. They are really only marginally useful.

The problem with those Yankee Stadium stats is that all but four appearances come from 2003 or earlier. You can't honestly bring up Hawkins' failed stint as a starter in the late '90s as proof that he's an ill-suited pitcher for the Yankees. I'd be worried about his strikeout rate myself, but at least he doesn't walk many batters.

I don't see why they should have taken it. Helms is much, much better than he showed in 2007. Nestor lacks control and I seriously doubt he'll have an MLB career. Looking over news, I see Rotoworld.com criticized the non-move, citing Pat Gillick's "unwillingness to admit mistakes" and Helms' 2007 batting line. And what, a new third baseman is going to materialize out of thin air?

Note that I'm not going to argue on whether or not Bonds took steroids. Obviously he probably did. Looking over the career record though, that 73 stands out. Nothing else really does though on the home run front. 49, 73, 46, 45 and 45. Take out that 73 and nothing really looks all that suspicious. I've always wondered why no one seems to note that the home run spike also coincided with moving into a park with a 309 foot right field foul pole distance. I find it hard to interpret Bonds' numbers after 2001. The batting averages are much higher. The problem is that pitchers were obviously not throwing to him in anything resembling a clutch situation, and would only pitch to him when they did not have to bear down. There has never been another batter pitched to in such a manner, so it's hard to say what any players numbers would be under the circumstances. Maybe he really wasn't THAT much better, it's just that pitchers had the fear of 73 put into them. As for the late power surges, best I can find is Darrell Evans. Maybe Brian Downing.

Look at the Brewers' bullpen the last few years. They pulled a great year out of Dan Kolb, pulled a great year out of Derrick Turnbow and snagged Francisco Cordero for cheap after the Rangers let a few bad outings influence their thinking. They are Exhibit A on why acquiring proven closers are overrated.

That's a fair criticism. There are hundreds of qualified sportscasters and such who are excluded from the voting process. While some sportscasters get to vote for the veterans' committee, that's a small honor reserved for a small number of observers. There are far more good baseball viewers than just the BBWAA.

Maris went 16 to 61 in two years. Ruth went 11 to 54 in two years. Hank Greenberg went 1 to 58 in two years. Honestly, I don't see what good it does to target individual athletes for something so obviously part of the sports culture of the last 15-20 years. The system is broken, not the athletes.

Interesting turn of events in Philadelphia. The third baseman for 2008 may be Tad Iguchi after all. There have been some rumors circulating on the subject, most recently Todd Zoleki's column with Iguchi's agent stating a deal is 80% done. There are some roadblocks due to the issue of arbitration, the Phillies could not offer it due to the terms of Iguchi's contract. I am really surprised Iguchi hasn't gotten a solid offer to play second somewhere. I welcome him back with the Phils. He's an upgrade on our third base situation and performed well last season.

I'm not certain. He has the stuff, but his control hasn't followed since he hit AA.

I would appreciate if you stated it was news from elsewhere up front, rather than at the end of the post.

Ok, Rule V draft. I like that the Mariners grabbed R.A. Dickey from the Twins. The Twins made a comment a week or two ago after signing Dickey to a minor league deal, saying his knuckler would play well in the Metrodome. So much for that idea. Brian Barton to the Cardinals is an excellent move, they could use the outfield depth. Phillies pick up Lincoln Holdzkom and Travis Blackley. Holdzkom I am almost certain I saw pitch this season. He has some very intriguing numbers. 291 Ks in 269 career innings, but 155 walks as well. Only five home runs allowed, all coming last year in AA Portland. And according to last year's Prospect Handbook, he appeared on the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson and played the piano when he was six. Blackley was once a top prospect. He had a decent year at AAA Tacoma last year at the age of 24. If made a reliever, he might well be the best lefty bullpen option on the team right now. It'll be interesting to see if these guys make the team in Spring Training.

Umm, ESPN's website employs Rob Neyer and for a time utilized John Sickels and Baseball Prospectus. They had the best sabermetric statistics on their website before the Hardball Times website kicked it into high gear a year or two ago.

You guys missed the truly dumb thing about that Andruw Jones/strikeouts comment. He didn't even finish in the top ten in the league that year!

Heenan wrestled often throughout the 70s, and if you watch his matches he really was one of the best bump men in the business.

Since this is obviously false, let's stop this now.

God damnit. Did they look through my dvd collection before picking matches?

As far as the cancer thing, I don't know the re-occurrence rate. I do know that young pitchers are ticking time bombs for injuries. If Lester can develop cancer, Hughes can injure his elbow in April. For baseball teams, the results are roughly the same.

I think there's a bit of a cause and effect link. It is not a stretch to say that a pitcher who gives up hits because of his defense will start nibbling the corners and walking more batters. His Cy Young season is probably unrealistic, but he certainly is better than he showed last year. I do think it is a stretch to call Andrew Miller a better pitcher than Willis. Miller hasn't really achieved anything yet above AA.

Since I have a bit of time. For the Tigers: Miguel Cabrera makes that club an absolutely devastating offensive force. They've already replaced Sean Casey with Edgar Renteria and Craig Monroe with well, anything else. To think they already finished second in runs last year, in a pitchers' park. Dontrelle Willis struggled last year of course. I think a lot of that may have to do with Marlins' awful defense. Scott Olsen also tanked last year. Put Edgar Renteria at short and Jacque Jones in left instead, and quite a few more hits turn into outs. Indians vs. Tigers, I think that one is too close to call just yet. For the Marlins: They finally have a center field prospect who should earn the starting job by 2009. He was rushed to the Majors as a September callup when he clearly was not ready. Andrew Miller is a top pitching prospect, nearly as good right now as Dontrelle Willis. Mike Rabelo is a serviceable backup, no more. Eulogio de la Cruz has a great arm but has control issues, your classic high 90s thrower. Dallas Trahern might be a groundballer but I don't see much of a future there. Ditto Burke Badenhop, who wasn't overpowering even as a 24 year old in a high A pitchers' league. I can't see the Marlins not losing less than 90 games again.

Meadowlands show from my third birthday. Finally something I haven't seen before.

Agreed but fortunately I haven't seen it happen much. But oddly enough the last two times were Patch Adams and My Favorite Martian. The latter is somewhat excusable cause the audience was made up mostly of easily entertained annoying kids but Patch fucking Adams? I don't get why anybody would give that piece of shit an ovation. Patch Adams was an excusable movie until they kill the girl he's trying to nail. I know it's based on real life and all but talk about something that KILLS the film. It goes from mildly enjoyable Robin Williams comedy to depressing horrible film about a loon. Agreed 100%.

The Miguel Cabrera trade is another good one. Andrew Miller/Dontrelle Willis is a point in the Marlins' favor, good chance for the fish to come out ahead. Maybin could be a superstar and the Marlins need a center fielder. And there are four extra prospects in the deal. Again I say, I love this offseason.

Where is this 49% figure of OBP for Placido Polanco coming from?

The price is nuts, but at least the deal legitimately improves the Royals. Emil Brown hit .247/.300/.347 in left field last year. No Royal had a better season than Guillen produced four of his last five seasons.