EVIL~! alkeiper

I recall them offering a deal to Miguel Tejada, but he turned them down. Assuming the Tigers sign I-Rod, they're on my short list of most improved candidates for 2004, along with the Orioles, Padres, Mets, and Angels.

Here's how it works. A player is eligible for free agency after 6-7 seasons. Before that time, he is essentially owned by the team that holds the rights to him, even if he doesn't have a contract with that team. The Cubs have the rights to Lee, because of the trade. Now here's where it might get tricky. For the first three years, a player either accepts what the team wants to give him, or holds out (this rarely happens). Much like the old days of the reserve clause. After three years, a player may have his salary determined by an arbitration panel if he and his team cannot agree on a contract. Derrek Lee is not under contract, but not eligible for free agency. He's played over three years, so he is eligible for salary arbitration. Basically, all this move means is that a hearing will determine his contract for the upcoming season. He and the Cubs may still agree to a deal on their own before that time. Hope that was clear enough.

Well, strikeouts are unproductive, but like I said, the leaders in sac hits only have around 10-20 a year (and alot of those are because they can't hit in the first place). Paul Konerko, meanwhile, led the majors with 28 double plays. He didn't strike out. Were his outs productive? No, because he created two outs, instead of one. There's just as much bad that can happen on a ball in play as there is good.

Here's what you're missing. What separates a strikeout from any other kind of out? Sometimes a runner advances. That's called a sacrifice. The league leader in sac flies had 12 last season, so that's really a negligible difference. Cameron had a .344 OBP last season, meaning he made outs about 65% of the time. That they were strikeouts makes him no different than other players who make outs at that rate.

1. Strikeouts. Balls in play often lead to bad things, such as double plays. There's really no big difference between an out via strikeout, and an out via another method. 2. The O's rotation. Riley struck out 150 batters in 142 2/3 innings last season in the minors, while walking just 51. Anyone with those kind of numbers projects well for the majors. Also keep an eye on John Stephens. 3. While Karim Garcia might be a minor signing, do the Mets really have a better RFer at the moment? He hits well against righties.

The 777 OPS is compared to a league average of 757. Besides, the last few center fielders the Mets have played were Jeff Duncan, Timo Perez, Jay Payton, and Brian McRae. Not exactly all stars. As for the strikeouts, they're overrated. Another thing about Cameron. Check out his home/road splits. In four years at SafeCo, Cameron hit 30 home runs at home, and 57 on the road.

The Pinstriped Bible Another good article from Steven Goldman. Goldman discusses Clemens, the Yankees' roster, and best of all, the most inept Yankees' World Series games ever played.

The Phillies already have Ricky Ledee on the roster. Most teams (if not all) don't carry six outfielders, so Michaels is likely the odd man out.

Up the middle Defense? That's all I got.. 1. Mike Piazza will likely play 120-130 games, instead of the 68 he played last season. 2. A full season of Jose Reyes, replacing a half season of Rey Sanchez/Joe McEwing. 3. Kaz Matsui replaces Roberto Alomar/Joe McEwing. 4. Mike Cameron in center, replacing the centerfielder by committee. Of the top three CFers last season in terms of playing time, Timo Perez topped the list with a .301 OBP. Cameron will vastly improve the defense as well, improving the hits allowed stats of the pitching staff. 5. Cliff Floyd should miss less time this season.

Unlike the rest of you, I'm all for this move from Clemens. I don't give a flying fuck what kind of guy he is (and off the field, I haven't heard a damn thing bad about him). I appreciate him for what he is and has always been: one of the best damn pitchers I have ever seen.

Phillies sign Doug Glanville to a one year contract. One one hand, he can't hit at all. But on the other hand, he's terrific defensively, can pinch run, and he's an absolutely terrific personality.

Even if they don't stay, how many teams have three good pitchers like that for 5+ seasons? As for this season, experience.

2001- 102 wins. Offseason: Lost Jason Giambi, Jason Isringhausen, and Johnny Damon. 2002- 103 wins. You really can't underestimate the effect of replacing bad players with average ones. Its like adding a superstar to your team. Bobby Crosby should match Tejada's OBP of .332. I'm not saying they'll win 100 games, but they're the favorite to win the division in my view.

Baseball's such a random game that anything can happen, really. If all the breaks go the Mets way, I could see them finishing second. But that's if everything goes right. They could easily finish last.

I would add that if Dye doesn't, the A's will surely replace him with someone who will produce.

Tejada hit 278/336/472 last season. Is he really worth 10 wins all by himself? Lets do some quick Win Shares Comparisons. For those of you not familiar with win shares, they take a teams actual win total, multiply it by three, and divide them among the team's players..... 2003 ------ Long 11 Singleton 6 17 Kotsay 14 Kielty 12 26 9 Win Shares. That works out to three extra wins, just by fixing the outfield defense.

I'd buy that. They VASTLY improved their outfield dense with Cameron, signed Braden Looper, and signed Kaz Matsui.

Jeez and I thought I had an irrational reaction to the Angels signing Vlad. Perhaps you should ask them to kindly explain what the A's have done to become WORSE this offseason? They lost Tejada, but they have a big league-ready shortstop in AAA. They lost Foulke. That's all I can think of. They'll lose 21 more games because of THAT? Meanwhile, they've got three pitchers with a combined career record of 185-96. That's a .658 winning percentage. .658!!! All three of those guys are better than Bartolo Colon. And they've got two minor league guys to cover in case of injury. Besides, under Billy Beane, the A's have won 90+ for four years in a row. At some point, you have to believe your GM is a competant individual, and knows what he's doing.

Damn. I didn't notice the M's at 7. How the FUCK do you justify that ranking?

Where'd you hear that? Your "sources" again? There is no indication that that is actually the case. Regardless, I still don't think this gets the Astros over the top. They've still done nothing to address the holes in their line-up, or their below-average defense. Their offense was pretty inconsistent last year (i.e. score 15 runs one game and then 2 runs in each of the next three), and I don't see that changing, really. Bagwell and Biggio are a year older now, too, and Bagwell's shoulder is only getting worse. Starting pitching was a problem for the 'Stros last year, and it is definitely upgraded now, but I don't know...I just don't see this being a championship club. And the Astros are screwing themselves long-term, financially. Deferring $3.5 mil of Clemens' contract, along with all the deferred money they owe just to Kent, Bagwell, and Pettitte and their hands will be tied in 2005-06 and beyond. Makes me wonder if Drayton McLane isn't planning on selling the team soon. He's made several comments here with the Pettitte/Clemens signings that he hopes to get fans in the seats, yet nothing about actually winning a title. Sounds like a hell of a business plan to me...sign all these guys, get attendance up, and sell the team before you actually have to pay any of that money out. I think the Astros are the best team in the National League right now, and I thought that before the Clemens signing (take a look at the power rankings I did a couple weeks ago). Last season the Astros had a Pythagorean W-L record of 94-68. They've added Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. As for finances, remember the Astros will get Hidalgo's $12 million off the books after this season. They also clear Biggio ($3 Million) next season.

Roger Clemens put up the 4th best K rate in the American League last year. He also had a 3:1 K/BB ratio. He's still got it.

Funny how the Yankees jumped from 25th to 5th without making a move. Guess the staff finally came to their senses.

Saw it coming. Dropped him last week in favor of Doug Christie.

The Mets once had a game where, due to ejections, they were forced to employ Jesse Orosco and Roger McDowell as outfielders. Davey Johnson would bring one into pitch and send the other to the opposite field, depending on the platoon advantage.

Expos were ineligible to sign Vlad after December 7th anyway, so they saw this coming. Still, the Expos don't look overly bad. Ron Calloway isn't a regular, as they signed Tony Batista. They also signed Carl Everett, and traded for Nick Johnson. Jose Vidro and Orlando Cabrera are still with the team, as is Brad Wilkerson. There's three teams in the Central that look worse at this point.