I posted these in several parts over at SNKT, and now I grace you all with my sort of primer on the free agency market.
FREE AGENCY 2003
Part I: Catchers
With free agency approaching, its a good time to take a look at the free agents available this year. First on the docket, the catchers. This is really an all or nothing group. On one hand you have Ivan Rodriguez and Javy Lopez. After those two, however, the market takes a hit.
So who's in the market for catching? The Yankees have Posada, so no infecting the market here. The Red Sox have Varitek, the Dodgers have LoDuca, and the Mets have Piazza. So there go the big hitters. The Braves and Marlins will look to resign their guys. Otherwise, the Orioles need catching help, as do the Kansas City Royals. The Texas Rangers are weak in catching, but they'll budget, correctly, towards pitching. The Houston Astros need a replacement for Brad Ausmus, and the Giants need to replace Benito Santiago.
1. Ivan Rodriguez
A future Hall of Famer. Rodriguez played a full season for the first time in three years. Health had been the issue for I-Rod, and that seems to be over and done. One concern is Rodriguez's drop in slugging percentage, but that may be due to moving from The Ballpark in Arlington to Pro Player Stadium. Rodriguez is 32 heading into next year. Its questionable that the Marlins can resign him, as they had to defer his salary this year in the first place. I actually think the Astros should make a run here.
2. Javy Lopez
Where the hell did this come from? 43 Home Runs. Damn. Well, lets put this all into perspective. After two bad seasons, Javy reached career offensive highs at the age of 33, but he didn't increase his walk rate. I feel confident in saying that Javy will never hit like that again, but its also silly to think that he'll simply regress to his previous levels. He'll land somewhere in the middle. I think the Braves may end up re-signing him.
3. Benito Santiago
Santiago continues to defy father time. He'll be 38 going into next season. His stats are decent, but unspectacular, and he only played in 108 games last year. No team should give Santiago more than a one year contract. The Royals and similar teams should show some interest here.
4. Brad Ausmus
Desperate? Ausmus posted a sub .300 Slugging percentage. It tells you something about the catching market when Ausmus is this high. Teams that need a defensive minded backup should give Ausmus a look, but otherwise he's not worth it. Perhaps the White Sox could use Ausmus to back up Miguel Olivo as he develops. Of course, since Ausmus is buddy-buddy with Bagwell and Biggio, the Astros could hold on to him.
Brent Mayne
Brent Mayne hasn't topped a .309 OBP for the last three years. Teams should look for Brent Mayne as a backup only. But at least he's better than Mike Difelice.
First Basemen
What a crop this bunch is. So who's looking for a first baseman? Quite honestly, not many teams have an urgent need for a first baseman. Both the Giants and the Dodgers could use a first baseman, and can afford it, but that's about it. Without further ado, the first basemen!
1. Rafael Palmeiro
Palmeiro just keeps hitting, and he just turned 38. Palmeiro turned in yet another season of 30+ Home Runs, and 100+ RBIs. With 528 HRs, I think he's going to the HOF. Now for the bad news. His OBP slipped, as did his slugging percentage. You have to consider that he plays in the Ballpark in Arlington, so expect lower numbers if he signs elsewhere. His drops aren't bad as they are, but they're only going to fall more as he ages. Still, Palmeiro is far and away the best first baseman on the market.
2. J.T. Snow
The Giants started platooning Snow this year, and he responded by posting better than usual numbers. Its obvious that Snow is best used in a platoon at this point in his career. He might be a good pickup for a second division team, but there's no real need for him on any of the contenders.
3. Scott Spiezio
Spiezio posted a .326 OBP. His 2002 season looks like an abnormality more than anything. On a side note, its easy to see why the Angels turned out like they did. Your first baseman posting a 45 point increase in OBP, along with a 45 point decrease the next year will do that to you. In any case, Spiezio can play third, so he has value if a team plays him at third. Otherwise, Spiezio is not a very good first baseman.
4. Eric Karros
OBP/SLG
340/446
350/421
The first stat line above is from Eric Karros. The second is that of Hee Seop Choi. If fans would learn to look beyond batting average. They would see that Choi is already a perfectly acceptable player. More importantly, they'll see that Choi is every bit the player that Karros is, except he's cheaper and younger. Karros hasn't been a good hitter for three years now. His power surge this year was no more than the result of leaving Los Angeles. Most teams can do better than Eric Karros.
5. Fred McGriff
After a season of consistency, McGriff finally ended up injured this season. He turns 40 on Friday. More notably, his power numbers took a big hit, and it wasn't all Dodger Stadium. McGriff could still provide power, but he comes with a great deal of risk. A team could take a flyer on Crime Dog, but under no means should McGriff be counted on to carry first base for any team.
Second Basemen
The Cubs declined Mark Grudzielanek's option, making him a free agent. Thank god. I thought I was going to spend a paragraph talking about Jeff Reboulet.
Who's in the market for a second baseman? Quite a few teams. The Boston Red Sox are on the market, as are the Chicago White Sox, and the LA Dodgers. Problem is, there's not too much talent on the market. Chances are someone might end up overpaid when all is said and done. Without further ado, your free agent second basemen.
1. Luis Castillo
Castillo boasts a .367 lifetime OBP, he's in his prime, and he's fast. A team looking for a leadoff hitter could do well by signing Castillo. His only problem is that he needs to steal more selectively. I think the Dodgers and White Sox will show the most interest here.
2. Mark Grudzielanek
Buyer beware. At the age of 33, Grudzielanek posted his first .340+ OBP since '99. He holds career averages of .285/.329/.387. That's not too impressive. It would be foolish to offer Grudzielanek a long term deal. I think the Cubs hold the inside track here.
3. Todd Walker
Walker's career averages are .290/.346/.434. Expect that kind of production the next few years. Not excellent, but not bad either. Walker's sore spot is his fielding. I think most teams will show an interest depending on where the first two fall.
4. Roberto Alomar
A few years ago Alomar would've been the darling of the market. Now its been two years since he's hit anything. He'll be 36 when next season opens, and most indications are that he's finished as a star player. For a .330 OBP and .355 Slugging, you really could get someone much more affordable.
5. Eric Young
An aging leadoff hitter. Eric Young hasn't posted a leadoff hitter's OBP since 2000. He can still steal some bases, but his days as a major threat are long past. As with Alomar, Young doesn't give much more production than younger guys who come with lower price tags. Take a pass on this one.
Shortstops
We look at the market for shortstops. Its a decent market this year, with a former MVP available. So who's on the market for a shortstop? Perhaps the Mariners will test the market. The Chicago White Sox are also in need of a shortstop, as are the San Francisco Giants. The Los Angeles Dodgers are desperately in need of any kind of offensive ability. Rumours abound that the Mets will seek an infielder, but I think they need help elsewhere.
1. Miguel Tejada
Miguel Tejada is considered one of the top three players on the market. I can't help but feel he's slightly overrated. If you look at '01 and '03, his numbers were around .330/.475. Good for an infielder in the Oakland Coliseum, but not the kind of production most associate with him, thanks to his 2002 season. His slugging percentages over the last four years are .479, .476, .508, and .472. Which numbers are you more likely to see? The Dodgers are a good match for Tejada.
2. Jose Valentin
Valentin is one of baseball's overlooked players. Valentin is no star, but he consistantly delivers a slugging percentage around .475. Unfortunately, he's 34, and his OBP has slipped to around .310 the last two years. He can help a team who needs a slugging infielder, or perhaps as an extra infielder who can play some third base.
3. Rich Aurilia
Rich Aurilia surprised fans by hitting 37 home runs in 2001. However, he's only hit 28 total the last two years. 2001 is the only year Aurilia topped a .340 OBP, or a .445 slugging percentage. He's 32 years old. Teams looking at Aurilia should discount his 2001 and view him with his recent numbers in mind.
4. Kaz Matsui
No relation to Hideki. Kaz Matsui is the latest import from Japan. Kaz is a career .309 hitter in Japan, and he's in his prime. If you consider Japan on the level of AAA baseball, than his numbers look very good. He hit 30+ home runs the last two years. He walks at a decent rate. He's got 306 career steals. Kaz Matsui could be a steal on this market.
5. Mike Bordick
Bordick put together a good year for the Blue Jays at 38. As always, temper your expectations and consider his previous few seasons. Teams looking for a veteran backstop could use a player like Bordick.
Third Basemen
Next up is the crop of third basemen entering the market. And the third basemen market.....sucks. Really, it does. There's not a single long term option on this list. So with that in mind, who needs a third baseman? The Yankees are looking. So are the Atlanta Braves, and the Seattle Mariners need a good player. So lets see who's available.
1. Joe Randa
Randa will be 34 at the beginning of the season. His career numbers are .286/.341/.426, and I expect he'll put up similar numbers next year. Randa is a good short term solution for a team with a hole in their lineup.
2. Vinny Castilla
Castilla hit 22 home runs, but his OBP the last four years was .254, .308, .268 and .310. That's abysmal. Do you really want to spend money with the chance that he'll turn right back into Sir Whiffs-A-Lot? I would not waste a roster spot on Castilla.
3. Tony Batista
They mass produce this type. Batista's OBP was .270 last year. The three years before that Batista posted OBP's of .307, .280, and .309. Batista's power is not worth that kind of aggravation. Batista could be decent as a power hitting reserve, but that's it.
4. Robin Ventura
You get the same as always with Ventura. Low batting averages tempered by a terrific BB rate. Ventura's hit sub .250 for four years now, yet he remains a good player. He's aging, but he could be a good one year stopgap for a team with a hole at third.
5. Todd Zeile
Zeile had a bad strtch for the Yankees, but he's not that bad. His numbers with Montreal are more indicative of his true ability. He's probably not a real good fielder at this point, but he'd be a nice bench player to have, as a hitter who can play the corner infield positions.
FREE AGENTS
Outfielders
Ok gang. Now we're getting into the good part of the free agent market. There's alot of outfielders available on the market this offseason. The NY Yankees and Baltimore Orioles are expected to make a push here on the free agent market. Expect interest from the Atlanta Braves as well, as both Sheffield and Maddux come off their books this offseason. Of course, the usual suspects will show interest. The Giants could really use some help.
1. Vladimir Guerrero
Quite simply, a man who needs no introduction. Vladimir Guerrero is just entering the prime of his career. He's a career .323 hitter, with 40/40 skills. The team that signs Vlad will get every bit of what they paid for.
2. Gary Sheffield
1994. That's the last time Gary Sheffield put up an OBP lower than .400. Sheffield is a dynamite hitter, regularly hitting 30-40 homers a year. He's got a few more good years left, and is more than worth a 3 year contract. A future hall of famer from where I stand.
3. Mike Cameron
Cameron's real value is in his defensive skills. Cameron is the best CF on the market. His career numbers are .250/.343/.434. Expect a slight increase if he leaves Seattle for a park more suited to hitters. Cameron is a capable hitter for his position, and can add 20 steals a year. The Yankees may want to take a look here as Bernie Williams ages.
4. Carl Everett
Everett revived his career with 28 home runs last year. His numbers the last two years weren't good, and he's been fighting injuries, so he's a risk. He's probably not good enough for center field at this point. I expect a team to take a flyer, but I wouldn't give him more than a year or two.
5. Jose Guillen
The question is, is he for real? Guillen shocked the baseball world by posting a 337/385/629 line for the Reds. One one hand, it was only 300 ar bats. On the other hand, he is 27. I go with the former. He might be for real, but if he isn't you're still stuck paying him. Best to temper expectations for now.
6. Shannon Stewart
Stewart's a good leadoff hitter and slightly below average hitter. A team looking for a leadoff hitter might do well by signing Shannon Stewart.
7. Kenny Lofton
Lofton put together a nice 2nd half for the Cubs. As always with aging players, caution should prevail here. Expect a 340/420 line from Lofton, with around 20 steals. A good one year stopgap.
8. Reggie Sanders
Reggie Sanders has a very odd statistical line. He's literally good one year, and average the next. By this pattern, next season is an off season. Teams should keep in mind that he's 36. He'd make a good 4th outfielder at this point.
9. Jose Cruz Jr.
Career averages of 251/336/458. Expect similar numbers in 2004. A good player who can play center, and switch hits.
10. Raul Ibanez
Ibanez suddenly turned decent three years ago. He's got career averages of 278/334/464, and I'd expect similar numbers, with a slight increase in slugging. A good option for teams looking for a 4th outfielder/hitter.
11. Rondell White
A power hitter with injury problems. Rondell is a good option for a team with a need for a designated hitter.
12. Jeromy Burnitz
Hit terribly for the Dodgers after a good half with the Mets. Career averages of 251/350/482. Expect similar numbers. See the three or four guys above. Its all the same really.
Starting Pitchers
The first five guys or so are good, and the rest are CRAP. Seriously, if you can grap one of the top guys, don't bother. Everyone needs pitching, so no need to list interested teams here.
1. Bartolo Colon
Bartolo Colon holds a 3.86 career ERA, and eats innings. I expect the same kind of production over the next few years. There's not much to add here. Colon's a bit heavy, so conditioning might be an issue down the road.
2. Andy Pettitte
Pettitte holds a sterling career record of 149-78. Pettitte doesn't issue many walks, and strikes out a decent amount of hitters. Now for the bad news. Pettitte is 68-48 on the road, with a 4.44 ERA. He's much better in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees should re-sign him.
3. Sidney Ponson
Ponson finally took a step forward last year, winning 15 games. It was the first year Ponson posted an ERA under 4. Ponson is 27, so a step up in performance was expected. Teams should expect a 3.70 ERA or so for the next few years.
4. Kevin Millwood
Millwood has had thw same peripheral stats the last four years. His ERA has flucuated thanks to his hits allowed. Some evidence shows pitchers have little impact on balls in play, so perhaps Millwood's ups and downs can be traced to his defense. Or maybe not. Millwood has a good K and BB rate, so he's probably worth the risk.
5. Greg Maddux
Maddux's ERA finally spiked, and his K rate is down. He's still a decent starter however, but not #1 material. Maddux has made 30+ starts a year for quite some time, so he'd make a good second or third starter for a team needing a plug.
6. Kenny Rogers
Rogers is still plugging at the age of 39. Rogers will contribute about 200 innings, at league average performance. A team needing a back rotation solid starter could use Rogers.
7. Brett Tomko
Tomko sports a career ERA of 4.62. He's not worth anything more than a minor league contract.
8. Cory Lidle
Lidle took a step backwards once he left the Oakland Coliseum. His career ERA is 4.42, and I would expect a similar performance this year.
9. Jose Lima
Lima had a career revivial, but he barely struck out more batters than he walked. Stay away from this one.
10. Rick Reed
Reed had a 5.07 ERA last year. He's not worth the money at this point.
11. Garrett Stephenson
Another starter who found a career based on one good year. Like the four above, Stephenson is not worth a big pile of money, or money at all.
12. Pedro Astacio
Astacio missed most of the year with injury. Astacio's good, when healthy. The question is whether he can hold it together. At 34, he's a 50/50 shot.
Relief Pitchers
Relief pitchers are a suspicious lot. Many of your closers are consistant, performing seasn after season. But alot of middle relievers appear one season, and disappear the next. A pitcher with an 0.96 ERA one season for the Braves suddenly sucks next year for the Yankees. One reason is ample sizes. 50 IP isn't enough to judge a pitcher's true worth. So the maxim here is simple. Be wary of middle relief, don't trust one year of results, and take a good hard look at peripheral statistics. So lets take a look at the candidates.
1. Keith Foulke
Quite simply, one of the game's elite closers. Lots of strikeouts and few walks. Every team on the market for a closer is going to target this guy first, for good reason.
2. Ugueth Urbina
I'd exercise a little caution of Urbina. He's not as good as his 38 innings in Florida would indicate, but he's solid nonetheless.
3. Eddie Guardado
Guardado has pitched wonderfully the last two years since he became the Twins' closer. He could easily contribute three more good years to a team in need of a closer.
4. Tim Worrell
Worrell got a shot at the Giants' closer job with Robb Nen on the shelf, and Worrell passed the test with flying colors. Worrell is another good reliever who can easily close, and a smart team could get him cheaper than they would a more "proven" closer.
5. LaTroy Hawkins
A dominating pitcher who could close games for a team in need of a closer. Given his peripheral numbers, there's no reason why he can't be a closer.
6. Kelvim Escobar
Escobar has relieved more games than he started the last two years, so he's listed here. He could easily start games however. Escobar is entering his prime, with league average numbers. He's not overpowering, so he's probably better off as an innings eating starter.
7. Armando Benitez
The image of Benitez is a flake, someone who can't get it done in crunch time. That could work in favor of a team looking for a closer, as Benitez is downright overpowering. Benitez could come at a discount to a team looking to roll the dice. He could pay off.
8. Tom Gordon
After missing 2000 to injury, Gordon has put it together the last three seasons. A good reliever who could easily close games in a pinch.
9. Curtis Leskanic
Missed 2002, and came back with a vengeance. Leskanic is another guy who can easily close games for a contender.
10. Mike Timlin
Timlin hardly ever walks anyone, a real plus for a team sick of giving away games. Timlin isn't a closer anymore, but he's still a solid reliever.
11. Terry Adams
After a couple seasons masquerading as a starter, the Phillies moved Adams back to relief, and he responded with a 2.65 ERA. Adams can spot start, but that's it. Adams is a solid pitcher to have in the pen.
12. Rod Beck
Beck returned to action after missing 2002 with Tommy John surgery. Beck turned in a 1.78 ERA, and he's never shown any real signs of aging. Best of all he still strikes out nearly a batter an inning. Again, Beck is a good option.
