Cheech Tremendous

I think you have a decent point in regards to left handed pitchers succeeding in Fenway. Then again, this is Johan Santana. I think we have to throw out preconceived notions when analyzing the best pitcher of this generation. Also, according to most reports, he'd be replacing Lester, a left hander, in the rotation.

If your idea of fun is a ridiculous farce that destroys the entire credibility of the institution, then I guess you're right. College footall is a joke.

You would like the Red Sox, your hated rivals, to get the best pitcher in baseball and secure an unbelievabale pitching rotation for the next five years or so? That makes a lot of sense. Santana/Beckett/Matsuzaka/Schilling/Buchholz Look at that for a minute and think about your statement again.

The Red Sox are willing to include any of their big three (Lester, Ellsbury, Buchholz). It's the combination of any two that they are balking at. I think Ellsbury+Lester might be accpetable, but that would most likely take Lowrie and Masterson out of the package. It's going to depend on whether or not the Twins want the high upside guys or the bigger package of players. A Yankees offer with Hughes still trumps Ellsbury, in my opinion.

You forgot about his two month pass through the Red Sox organization as well.

Benoit v. Nancy/Daniel

He still pounds the hell out the ball, but he's striking out way too much and not drawing nearly enough walks for the type of hitter that he is. He'd get eaten alive by major league pitchers. Can't really seem to find a defensive position to stick at either. He's either going to be a superstar or completely flame out. There is no middle ground. And because we are discussing falling stars, what the hell happened to Andy Marte? He went from being the #1 prospect in baseball to almost out of the league in about two years time.

I like how you assert that Bill James has stopped "sniffing glue" when the article you cited presented the exact same stance he's always had and the work he shows, as much as I love Bill, is miles behind some of the other stuff that has been done on the subject (most notably in Tom Tango's The Book). The problem with measuring clutch hitting is a) how do you define it and b) once defined, how do you ever compile enough data to prove it? Look at what he has presented here. Pujols, Chipper and Papi hit well in the clutch? Pierre doesn't? Well, no shit. You just presented three of the best hitters in baseball. How does the performance compare to non-clutch situations? What was the platoon advantage? Did they control for park effects? The quality of pitcher faced? What's the correlation coefficient of the data? What's the standard deviation? There's not information here to figure out if we've proven anything at all. We already know clutch hitting exists. Fangraphs.com measures it and posts updates everyday on their website (using WPA - win probability added). Factoring in the leverage of the situation, how much did your at bat change the expected outcome of the game? That's simple to measure, but does it mean anything? The white whale for all statisticians is finding out if clutch ability exists. Do some players, in fact, possess a special skill set that allows them to recognize the situation they are in and change their approach to become better than they are at all other times they play the game. I think that's a ridiculous notion, but I don't know for sure because I can't test it. Until then, it's easier to say that clutch hitting ability doesn't exist. And when I say that, I don't mean to imply that there is no chance that it out's there, just that the probability of finding it is so small that it would be foolish for a manager to make any moves based on it and ever more foolish for writers/fans to pretend like they know it and use it to judge the quality of the player.

David Gassko of The Hardball Times did a chat on Sons of Sam Horn today. Some of it is a little Red Sox heavy, but there is a ton of interesting stuff in there. I've posted the link below and encourage you take a look if you have an extra 30 minutes, particularly if you're sabermetrically inclined. Gassko touches on the subject of player projections, the future of defensive metrics, pitcher durability, assessing overall value (and why Coco Crisp is more valuable than Manny... really), the misunderstanding of park effects and the need for good pitch by pitch data, among other topics. Chat Link

So Kenny Rogers re-signed with the Tigers. Anyone care? *crickets chrip*

That was sort of funny, but you put way too much work into it. You could have said the same thing in ten lines.

I always wonder how trades like this one go down. I don't think I would have the courage to ask for Milledge if I was only offering Church and Schneider. If Omar initiated the talks, how do you even take him seriously? I would think he was just screwing with me. Do you try to process the paperwork as fast as possible before the othe guy realizes what he's down?

Bowden stole Austin Kearns from Cincy, grabbed Flores in the Rule V draft, traded for Soriano, found Dmitri Young on the scrap heap, pieced together a pitching staff from nothing, hired Manny Acta, grabbed Wily Mo Pena for a AAAA 1B and just acquired a potential All-Star for a back-up catcher and 4th outfielder. He's also looking to Andruw Jones on a short term deal. I know he has a terrible repuatation (deservedly) but he's put together a nice little run in Washington so far.

Phil Jackson got a two year, $24 million extension. I think very highly of Phil as a coach, but I think I'd want a little more than 45 wins and first round playoff exit for that kind of money.

What the hell is Omar Minaya doing? That's a ridiculously bad trade. Church is decent, but he's already 28 and probably not going to be much more than a really good 4th outfielder. Schneider's great defensively and has a reputation for working well with his pitchers, but he can't hit a lick and he's definitely not worth a toolsy OF with tremendous upside. I guess Randolph really disliked Lastings. Well Lastings and Kazmir can hang out in the too immature for NY club. EDIT: Just realized that Nationals snagged Jesus Flores from the Mets in the Rule V draft last year, which made Schneider expendable. So the Nationals just double raped the Mets? How the hell are they are going to fix their pitching now? What other commodity can they part with? Unless they feel that Church can be moved along in a package, this doesn't make a ton of sense.

Just a random curiosity, but couldn't they approximate the opportunity cost associated with those misses by factoring the change in run expectancy (as well as any runs that scored on the play to offset a "decrease" in run expectancy - e.g. a bases-clearing double) into the calculation? I was thinking about the same thing last night. They've already done all the work on determining whether or not the play was fieldable. Just pull a run expectancy table and look at the projected runs scored for the base/out situation before and after the event. From there, you'd just multiply the change in run expectancy by percentage number who fielded/didn't field the play. The outcome would be a value, expressed in runs, for a defensive play (obivously dumbing down the math here). You could even factor the defensive plays into a win probability model to account for leverage. Why hasn't anyone done this?

The Twins are a very profitable franchise. Carl Pohlad seems to be a cheap owner, but he's a successful businessman and he keeps his team firmly in the black every year. If you look at that team, he's always been committed to putting a winner on the field, regardless of payroll. They've been the best team in that division for the past decade and probably one of the best teams in baseball. It's not that they are even being that cheap. They offered Santana a 5 years, $90 million extension. In a world without Barry Zito, that'd be the richest contract given to a pitcher. Yeah, he's the best in baseball, but they gave him a monster offer. No need to blow out your payroll because Brian Sabean torched the market for SP. You can't give Santana $150 million, then turn around and give Morneau $100 and Mauer $125, or whatever it will cost to sign these guys up long-term. Trading Santana now gives them the opportunity to keep the team competitive for many years. It's the right move. Besides, he's not the only elite talent on the market. Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard and Dan Haren are all available. Where's the vitriol for their owners?

Buster Olney reporting that the Yankees are close to a deal with Mark Loretta. Seems like an odd deal to me with Betemit already on the roster to back up the infield positions. Perhaps Betemit or Cano is on the move?

I did, seeing as how Romo went undrafted. Everyone was selected over Tony Romo.

Maybe we should just be happy that we got a new poster who isn't a Ravens fan.

Couple of things: 1. We already have a thread for this 2. I don't know because I can't see the game because the NFL and Comcast are both money hungry bitches 3. Indy-NE from earlier this year is untouchable as far as bad officiating is concerned

Me, from earlier in this thread:

Please explain to me why it's subjective and then reference a better way to evaluate fielders, including any stats that are more accurate in assessing defensive ability. I'd really like to know.

That seems to be a bit harsh on Crisp. He's a little below average with the bat, but he has hit well in the past. It could be the wrist and finger injuries that have caused him to lose something at the plate. At 28, he may yet bounce back. But even if he doesn't, his glove is so valuable that he should be able to stick for most teams as a starting centerfielder. He had a WARP3 of 8.4 last year, so depending on how well you rate his defense, he's somewhere between good and very good when considering all facets of the game. Good baserunner, too. I can buy Melky being more valuable long-term because he's young, cheap, has stuck at the majors and could develop into a serviceable player. But I don't think he's at Crisp's level and I don't think he will be either. I'm not even sold that Ellsbury will be much better than Crisp. Just an opinion, though.

I really like Kennedy, to be honest. He struck out more than a batter an inning last year, only gave up seven home runs. I saw him personally pitch for Trenton in Reading and he was impressive. One thing I never see mentioned, he has great hair. Melky Cabrera has a solid understanding of the strike zone, but lacks power. He is really stretched in center field so his hitting has to improve remarkably for him to be an asset in the future. Jose Tabata again, good hitting talent. Very young for his level. Again he needs to develop some power yet, as he is already moved to right field. The big problem there is that he is so far from the Majors that a lot can happen. Allan Horne again, good peripherals. His scouting reports indicate he'd be better served as a relief pitcher. He only has two good pitches. What concerns me with the Yankees' pitchers is that they all have little pro experience. It is possible that their numbers will fall as hitters learn to adjust to their raw stuff. And your thoughts on Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson and Lester?