Cheech Tremendous

Thanks for pointing this out every single time I say something about mega-threads. You are absolutely right, but you don't have to point it out every chance you get. I started a mega-thread, but didn't want it to get that way. I tried to start something new for the Winter Meetings (and was hoping to do one for free agency), but it died. I did get a mod to split out the HOF discussion. That's something. I don't have any control over folder moderation. The presence of mega-threads is not solely my doing just because I started a thread. As for sports being all mega-threads, it kind of has to be. We have discussions going on several different sports at once. I don't know how you'd prevent confusion amongst basketball, baseball, football, college, hockey and any other sports that get discussed. It'd be great if you had some suggestions for how to get around that.

Yes. It was easily the funniest performance of the year, and probably the most daring. If you don't get an actor playing this as good as Downey, Tropic Thunder's pretty much fucked from all the controversy. The line about him staying in character until the DVD commentary is almost worthy of the nomination itself. It was also a way of applauding Downey for his comeback, and for his performance in Iron Man. Fair enough. I don't think he was even the funniest guy in that movie, but I guess I'm off base. Come to think of it, I didn't like Iron Man either, so maybe I'm not an RDJ guy.

Yep.

Robert Downey Jr.? Really? That playing an Australian playing a black guy was a cute gimmick, but Best Supporting Actor? Did I miss something?

I need Week 2 numbers from KOAB, Pbone, Cuban Linx, DCH, Kinetic, Hollywood Spike Jenkins, and Krankor. If you aren't able to get me a number this week, it's okay. I'll just assume that your weight has not fluctuated. From what I've seen thus far, Fazzle is in the lead.

I own the two items you just posted. Same brand and color although the shirt may have a finer pinstripe.

Blurb? Edit: Sorry, I don't have Insider. I'll be happy to go over some of these team's systems when my copy of Baseball America arrives. I've got the Astros in my bottom five organizations though, for what it's worth. But I'm no Keith Law. Sure thing. Looking at the projections out there, he looks like a .285/.340/.440 guy next year. That's worth about 16 runs above replacement, but we have to adjust upward 7 runs for playing shortstop. He was a little above average last year defensively (+5), but -6 runs the year before. Let's call him completely average. That puts him at 2.3 total wins above replacement. Using $4.4 million per win yields a FMV of $10 million. Hard to say since the market has been so unresponsive this year. I've projected him at $15 million+, with only marginal diminishing returns over the next three years. Let's say his value holds $15 million per year. Discount it 10% for the security of a long-term deal and a contract of 3 years, $40 million looks reasonable. That's a little more than Furcal got, which sounds about right.

That's a lowball offer. I have Roberts as being worth $15-$18 million a year. He also projects as a player that will age gracefully.

Maybe this news will bring the Fire Joe Morgan guys out of hiding. Things like this just boggle my mind. Steve Phillips is the worst analyst they have. The worst. There is nothing redeeming about him whatsoever as a television personality or as a baseball analyst.

Steve Phillips is joining Joe Morgan and Jon Miller in the booth for ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball telecasts. Good lord, kill me now.

Some analysts don't rank players until they have at least some professional experience under their belt. I haven't seen the rest of MLB.com or Keith Law's lists, but if he isn't ranked anywhere that's probably the case. Baseball America is also notorious for ranking upside over likelihood of reaching the majors. Whereas that doesn't really apply to Alvarez because of his collegiate experience, it explains why they might be so bullish on a guy with no track record of performance. I haven't really thought too hard about rankings, but #3 overall sounds about right for Alvarez. He's the best pure hitter out there after Wieters.

Keith Law's Top 25 Prospects Matt Wieters tops the list, just ahead of Tampa Bay's David Price. Lots of Rays and Rangers on that list. Oh, and here's this: Keith Law's Organizational Rankings The Rangers system is stocked to a sick degree right now.

Quick back of the napkin math here on what Howard is actually worth versus his arbitration claim: His 50th percentile projection has him at .271/.379/.576 for 2009. That looks about right. With 547 at-bats he projects out at being worth 45 runs above a replacement-level player. Factor in below-average baserunning ability and a positional adjustment for 1B and he factors out at somewhere between 2.7 and 3.4 wins next year, depending on how you feel about his defense. UZR seems to think he's an average defender even if he may not look it. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say that's true. If so, Howard is worth 3.4 wins. At $4.4 million per win he's worth approximately $15 million on the open market. However, that figure supposes Howard is a free agent. Arbitration usually works on a 40/60/80 scale (first year arb players get 40% of market, second get 60%, etc.). That would have him worth $9 million. Even if we bump him a rung because of Super-2 status, he's still only at $12 million. Phillies should win this case, but we'll see. EDIT: By the way, I've gotten really good at figuring out how use the various projection systems out there to come up with expected offensive and defensive production. Once I have that, it's simple to figure out value. If you want me to take a look at any other players, just let me know.

He also said that he won't DH. He only wants to play outfield. I can't quite figure out why he'd want to limit his value like that when he's already having trouble finding offers. There are analysts out there that think he wants a one-year deal so that he can go back out in the market when the economy is better. Dunn may be worried that his value will diminish further if he's not seen as a player with an everyday position. Age aside, Dunn is basically equivalent to Ryan Howard in terms of offensive and defensive value. Dunn is finding it hard to even get an offer and Howard is asking for $18 million in his second year of arbitration. There is something not quite right about this picture. Yes, I understand why the system tends to work out like this, but it doesn't make it right.

Everyone try and get your second weigh-in to me in the next 24 hours. If I can figure out how to format a table I'll get that up by Friday.

I thought he'd already been pegged as the new Defensive Coordinator for the Raiders and was the leading candidate for the head coaching position as well. Either those reports were erroneous or Mr. Martindale has decided that being a linebackers coach for the Broncos is more prestigious. Ouch.

Been on a tear lately. Some of these I already owned, but I wanted them in a second format. TV on the Radio - Dear Science, Fleet Foxes - Sun Giant EP Fleet Foxes - Fleet Foxes The Raconteurs - Consolers of the Lonely Vampire Weekend - Vampire Weekend AC/DC - Black Ice Prince - Purple Rain Funkadelic - Maggot Brain The Clash - London Calling My Bloody Valentine - Loveless Sonic Youth - Daydream Nation Neil Young - Time Fades Away GZA - Liquid Swords Redman - Whut Thee Album Kanye West - 808s & Heartbreak

But there are many types of fans out there. This may work for you, but for me a title is not the be-all, end-all of my experience. I love the thrill of the hunt. For me, I live for the emotions and gamesmanship of free agency; the nailbiting at the trade deadline; sitting in front of the TV for four hours on a Tuesday night for a meaningless mid-season game; and arguing about the team over a pitcher of beer with some buddies at a bar. I just want to wake up every day and know that my team has a shot, any shot, to win a game. Of the three teams I actively follow I've gotten to see two titles during my lifetime (both in the last four years by the Red Sox). Sure, that moment when the last pitch was made is a special feeling that I'll have forever, but I'll admit that I was ready a week later for the offseason to start and the whole process to begin anew. I'd be miserable if the team decided to just tank it after '04. Watching the Raiders and Kings right now is a chore. Sure, there are no titles for either team, but even if they both had gotten them in early '00s I don't think this would be any easier to watch. I just can't get myself to care for mediocrity, no matter what the circumstances.

It's amazing that the Sox haven't gone to arbitration with any of their players since Theo took over. That's good business practice. Curt Schilling had a post the other day on SOSH about how ugly the whole process is, basically imploring to the Sox to avoid taking the emotional Papelbon into the hearings. In other arb news, Ryan Howard submitted a figure of $18 million! That guy is just determined to blow the doors off this whole process.

You think so? Of the 16 people competing, I'd only say that about six of them sound fat. I would have imagined that number being a lot higher.

The Red Sox avoided arbitration with Jonathon Papelbon by signing him to a one-year, $6.25 million contract. That is the largest deal ever for a pitcher, starter or reliever, in their first year of arb. In fact, it will be the third largest first-year contract in history after Miggy Cabrera in 2007 and Ryan Howard in 2008.

Barry Bonds put up the single greatest playoff performance ever during the 2002 run. In the World Series alone he had an OPS of 1.994. 1.994! He did everything physically possible to win that year and his team let him down. I don't see that as a blemish at all.

But unfortunately the media and fans like to lump the two together. Today, Donovan McNabb is a choker because he hasn't won a title. Instead of praising a player that lead a team to five title games, he's seen as soft. Problem is, I don't remember looking at any of those games and saying to myself that they would have definitely won with a different quarterback. Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Ewing... those guys were all great players, but ultimately came up ringless because of the era they played in. Does anyone think they're are chokers? Do we think that their career is any less because they never won the big one? I don't think we should. They are victims of the era they played in. For some reason, loss = choke in most people's mind, without anyone bothering to take into account the circumstances under which their loss occurred.

This is a good example of the media giving a pass to a player because of a title. Peyton has shit the bed in every other playoff run save for that one year they won the title. Is he a choker or not? Even Brady, with his three titles, has some blemishes on the record (the turd they laid against Denver, the Indy chokejob and the SuperBowl no-show). I don't know what my point is other than a ring seems to make us lose sight of the talents of the player. McNabb has had his team right there. If they get over the hump even once why does that change his entire body of work (work which shows him to be a future Hall of Famer)?

All you have to do is look at the Phoenix Suns to see how the mentality of "must win title" can quickly doom a franchise. Go back one year and they have the best record in the NBA and are coming off several seasons as title contenders. But just because they couldn't win the big one you see most of the roster shipped out of town, D'Antoni fired and the whole team philosophy changed. Now they are mediocre and have the sort of roster that's going to be awful in a year or two. Great example of a GM out thinking himself and believing that it was the players and the philosophy that kept them from a title. Steve Nash isn't any less of a player today because he came up short against a better team in San Antonio.