Fantasy Football dilemma

[Guest Dangerous A]

I've got a fantasy football dilemma. I have a live draft tommorrow and I have the second overall pick. We all know that Marshall Faulk is going number 1.

 

But who do I take? I have it down to 3 guys.

 

Kurt Warner. Ahman Green. Shaun Alexander.

 

Ahman Green is one of the safer picks because he is a running back, which is treasured in fantasy football.

 

Kurt Warner was the highest scoring player in fantasy football last year, but we'll have to see if his troubled thumb holds up.

 

Shaun Alexander has the most upside because he has high rushing totals and finds the all important end zone (14 touchdowns last year), but this year defenses will key in on him. He is mostly potential.

 

Most fantasy experts and mock drafts are going with Alexander and Warner. But Green is the most safe, and solid.

 

 

What should I do?

[Guest The Man in Blak]

Between those three, I would pick Ahman Green...but I wouldn't rule out Jeff Garcia either. Garcia is likely going to go on a tear with the new hi-powered 49ers offense, he's fairly durable, and he will get the occasion option in running plays.

[Guest Bricks]

I'd go for Warner. He's been putting up the numbers for 3 years now. Plus there's a lot of good RBs out there that will probably be around in the 2nd round.

[Guest kkktookmybabyaway]

My pick -- Warner. Don't ask why.

[Guest Kahran Ramsus]

Warner puts up a ton of numbers. The problem is that they aren't that much better than the QBs below him, so you aren't getting value from the pick.

 

I would almost pick Randy Moss or Terell Owens. WRs are almost as valuable as RBs (other than Faulk), and these two (and Harrison) are far, far above the next level (led likely by David Boston).

 

Usually I like a RB in the first round, but there is such a huge dropoff after Faulk, I'm not sure it is worth it to waste the number two pick on a RB if you can get someone with similar value in Round 2.

 

I typically don't draft a QB until at least Round 5, if not lower, and I almost always get two quality QBs.

 

If I were you I would grab Owens. Moss could very well do better, but he could more likely flop, and I pretty much want a sure thing with that high a pick.

[Guest DrTom]

Of the three, I'd pick Warner. Alexander's solid, but how he'll do as the #1 running back for a full season with teams keying on him is unknown. I still think he'll be tremendous. Green is also very good, but if you're in a performance league, his slippery fingers might cost you. I'd go with Warner.

[Guest CanadianChris]

Moss is a bit of a risky pick...with Cris Carter gone, he's going to be the main option for the Vikings, so all the defenses are going to be keying on him to shut him down above all else. he could have a monster year...or he could go right down the tubes.

 

Of the three you mentioned, I'd take Warner.

[Guest Kahran Ramsus]

Ian Allen answered a similar question in this week's mailbag at Fantasy Index.

 

I don't expect Owens or Moss to be selected that early. So I suppose if you wind up with a pick between 2nd and 5th, I'd advise that you trade down to around 10th. Then you'd still get Owens or Moss, and you'd be happier with the back you selected in the second round. If you were unable to trade out of the No. 2 spot, however, it would still work out that you'd be best off selecting Owens there. Do the math. Assume you're selecting two running backs and one wide receiver (in a 10-team league) with your first three picks. Owens (16) + Curtis Martin (10) plus Antowain Smith (10) beats Shaun Alexander (13) + Curtis Martin (10) plus Rod Smith (9). You come out 4 TDs ahead by selecting Owens first. I've never understood the large contingent of guys out there who believe that you must take running backs first. History shows us that good running backs can be found on the waiver wire throughout the year as guys get hurt. Anthony Thomas, Dominic Rhodes and Stacey Mack had big years last year after not even starting on opening day. And that will happen again this year, as lots of these running backs that everyone's crowding to select get hurt. You won't, however, see a backup receiver step in and catch a dozen touchdowns. Wide receivers rarely get hurt, and their backups don't step in and star. If you want a big-time receiver, you must select Owens, Moss or Marvin Harrison.

[Guest DrTom]

That RB/WR comparison is spot-on. I tend to favor the backs with the early picks, though, because they're not dependent upon the QB having a good day to put up numbers. If Peyton Manning is just off his rhythm one game, Marvin Harrison's numbers will suffer for it, but Edgerrin James' wont; if anything, his might be above his norm.

 

Talking about receivers: I like to draft big receivers. Short, swift guys can put up numbers, too, but when you put them in the slot, they get KILLED at some point. So I'll always draft guys like Randy Moss (and I think he's going to have a *monster* year, FWIW), Terrell Owens, Eric Moulds, David Boston, and Plexico Burress over their smaller counterparts. Big receivers greate matchup problems with the secondary. Look at Plexico Burress against the Ravens last year: Chris McAlister could run with him all day, but when the ball's in the air, Burress is 6'5" and McAlister is 6'0". You tell me who's going to come down with it.

[Guest Dangerous A]

This is how my draft turned out.

 

In order of when they were drafted.

 

Kurt Warner-QB

Ricky Williams-RB

Randy Moss-WR

Emmitt Smith-RB

Jerry Rice-WR

Marcus Pollard-TE

Mark Brunell-backup QB

TJ Duckett-backup RB

Dolphins Defense

Adam Vinatieri-K

Joey Galloway-backup WR

Lions defense-backup

Zeron Flemister-backup TE

 

 

What do you think of that fantasy squad?

[Guest Kahran Ramsus]

Moss dropped all the way to the third round? You made the right decision then. Warner + Moss is a lot better than Moss + 3rd Round QB.

 

As for your team, I think you can do better than Galloway & Emmitt Smith. I wouldn't think you would need a backup TE either, and there has to be better Ds than Detroit. Your starters, aside from Smith, are fantastic. Just hope they don't get hurt.

[Agent_Bond34]

Nice team you got there DangerousA. Moss was a steal in the third round. I think you did quite well with that.

 

Since this is a thread about Fantasy Football, I was wondering your opinion on this defense of mine in a league that I'm in.. 4 start, 4 are backups. Here's the defense:

 

Jamie Duncan

Jevon Kearse

Bryant Young

Kevin Hardy

Champ Bailey

Julius Peppers

Dana Stubblefield

Aaron Glenn

 

And out of these guys, who should I start?

[Guest Kahran Ramsus]

What's your scoring system?

[Guest Kahran Ramsus]

What's your scoring system?

[Agent_Bond34]

Head-To-Head

[Agent_Bond34]

Who should I start?

 

Reason I'm even asking is because I'm a bit unsure of which four to go with for my starters. I have Young, Kearse, Hardy and Duncan starting right now unless I change it. All eight guys I have are talented, it's just which guys I should start is what I am trying to figure out.

[Guest razazteca]

what stat gets more points? how is the points system work for the defense? Sack or int?

[Agent_Bond34]

Here's the defensive scoring system:

 

Statistical Categories (Defense Players): Tackle Solo (0.5)

Sack (3)

Interception (3)

Fumble Force (2)

Fumble Recovery (2)

Touchdown (6)

Safety (5)

Pass Defended (1)

Block Kick (4)

[Guest razazteca]

start these guys

 

Jevon Kearse

Kevin Hardy

Champ Bailey

[Agent_Bond34]

Thank you.

 

I'll try out that combination and see how it fares. I threw in Bryant Young to add a fourth guy as I am starting four defensive players.