Rob E Dangerously Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 and Soriano's 2003.. adjusted from the Bronx to Arlington add 18 runs, 15 hits, 6 doubles, 3 triples, 3 homers, 1 walk, his average goes up 17 points and take away one strikeout
Guest cpac Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 Did you bother to adjust it to batting order and pitchers faced too? I am sure Arod is going to get a ton of protection in the Yankees order with lots of guys on base and I am pretty sure he is going to face alot different pitching too. Only stat geeks use Bill James book.
Rob E Dangerously Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 batting order would apply if I was projecting RBIs. Soriano should be batting in the middle of the Ranger lineup anyways. As for the Yankee lineup.. how about this 1. Posada (.405 OBP baby!) 2. Jeter 3. Giambi (DH) 4. ARod 5. Sheffield 6. Matsui 7. Bernie Williams 8. Miguel Cairo 9. Travis Lee (1B) with Kenny Lofton as a left-handed pinch hitter/defensive replacement/pinch runner any thoughts?
Guest FrigidSoul Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 (edited) They got Lofton to move Bernie into the DH role and they still haven't signed Travis Lee. Giambi is playing first base full time as of this moment Edit: Thus the line-up is expected to be CF Lofton SS Jeter 1B Giambi 3B Arod RF Sheffield C PassedBall-sada DH Bernie LF Big Head 2B Cairo Edited February 18, 2004 by FrigidSoul
Rob E Dangerously Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 I don't think Bernie Williams really slugs enough to be a good DH. Giambi would be better off as a DH. As for the lineup. Lofton doesn't really seem like he'd be beneficial as a full-time player. Williams is on a slide down also.. Posada wouldn't be too bad as a leadoff hitter. He gets on base alot. Plus, speed isn't really beneficial when you're gonna be on base for Giambi and A-Rod.
Bored Posted February 18, 2004 Author Report Posted February 18, 2004 Only stat geeks use Bill James book. Hey look its Bill Plaschke. I don't think Bernie Williams really slugs enough to be a good DH. Giambi would be better off as a DH. As for the lineup. Lofton doesn't really seem like he'd be beneficial as a full-time player. Williams is on a slide down also.. Williams knees are shot right now and he can't play the outfield everyday anymore. I really felt they should have looked for trade opportunities with him this offseason. Sucks for them that Giambi can't last everyday at 1st either.
Rob E Dangerously Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 You think Bernie could be 'fazed out' in 2004 and 2005? ya know the Yankees will buy out his contract after 2005
EVIL~! alkeiper Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 Did you bother to adjust it to batting order and pitchers faced too? I am sure Arod is going to get a ton of protection in the Yankees order with lots of guys on base and I am pretty sure he is going to face alot different pitching too. Only stat geeks use Bill James book. First, I haven't seen a lot of evidence to indicate "protection" really effects a player's overall statistics. If pitchers pitch around a player due to lack of hitting behind him, that's reflected in the OBP. As Rob said, it really only effects RBI. As for the Bill James comment, that's just ignorant. Bill James and sabermetrics is NOT about arcane stats, as most believe. Its about finding relevant statistics, and how they help us better understand the game. As for the book, its really good, even for non-stat freaks. The majority of the book is a record of current player's career stats, kind of what you'd see in a Sporting News Register. Then there's leaderboards, platoon splits, park factors, and a few other things. My favorite is the career assessments, which estimates how likely a hitter is to reach a certain milestone. For example, Bonds has a 52% chance to pass Aaron's HR mark.
Rob E Dangerously Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 Al.. it's fun to use park factors to put Bonds in Coors. Hint.. Bonds in Coors = homers
EVIL~! alkeiper Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 Do you consider home/road splits before making those adjustments?
Rob E Dangerously Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 Do you consider home/road splits before making those adjustments? yeah.. I don't mess with road splits. Which might be problematic when dealing with Bonds getting extra games in Colorado. I adjust to average (numbers divided by like 1.02 or whatever) then to the park (times 1.03)
Guest FrigidSoul Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 Williams knees are shot right now and he can't play the outfield everyday anymore. I really felt they should have looked for trade opportunities with him this offseason. Nobody would give up anything of value for Bernie Williams because of what he makes, his age, and health. The Yankees could have gotten Chan Ho Park, David Segui, or Mo Vaughn for Bernie.
EVIL~! alkeiper Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 Try taking his home numbers, adjusting them, and leave the road numbers where they are. Then add them together. Otherwise he gets credit for 81 games he didn't play in Pac Bell, but gets that boost anyway.
MarvinisaLunatic Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 He must not be too superstitious to wear #13. Ok, so heres a fun bet we can all do. How many errors will A-Rod have at 3B in the month of April? Im guessing 6. Im not saying he's going to stink at 3B all year, but I can't see him making the super smooth transition to 3rd without making a few errors in the first month or so.
HarleyQuinn Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 I'll say 4 errors. Here's my lineup projection(taking in career order according to Yahoo. Basically where they hit best) #1: Kenny Lofton #2: Derek Jeter #3: Alex Rodriguez #4: Jason Giambi #5: Bernie Williams #6: Gary Sheffield #7: Hideki Matsui #8: Jorge Posada #9: Enrique Wilson Lofton leads off, solid leadoff hitter. Jeter can advance/put the ball in play. A-Rod is great #3 hitter and pitchers can't IBB him because then they'd be facing Giambi. Williams is in at the 5th spot as he'll see better pitches with Sheffield protecting him in the order. Matsui will bat 7th to give some power in the backend of the lineup followed by Posada who is still dangerous. Wilson limps at the #9 spot as he's there just because there's no better place for him. I like this projection because it makes pitchers aware that even though there isn't necessarily a "heart of the lineup", there's basically a dangerous hitter at each of the 3 groups. A-Rod in the 1-2-3, Giambi & Sheffield in the 4-5-6, Matsui & Posada in the 7-8-9.
Guest Anglesault Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 Wilson limps at the #9 spot as he's there just because there's no better place for him. Really, with that 1-8, I could bat ninth
EVIL~! alkeiper Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 I'd put Sheffield much higher, around 3rd. He's got a great OBP, and he's better served with more good hitters behind him.
HarleyQuinn Posted February 18, 2004 Report Posted February 18, 2004 Only reason I put A-Rod at the 3 hole was because in 2415 AB's he has a .306/.399/.611/1.010 line. Sheffield has a .304/.405/.545/.950 line at the 3 hole in 4736 AB's. Looking at it now, I'd maybe put Sheffield at the 4 hole and Giambi at the 5 spot. Therefore pitchers are forced to pitch to Sheffield and it gives the Yankees a dangerous 3-4-5 section. I may shift Posada to the 6th spot(.288/.400/.515/.915 line), Bernie to the 8th(.349/.431/.604/1.035 in 106 AB's) and Matsui to the 7th. What's amazing is that with this lineup you can do an assortment of things and the lineup remains so dangerous... Updated Lineup #1: Kenny Lofton #2: Derek Jeter #3: Alex Rodriguez #4: Gary Sheffield #5: Jason Giambi #6: Jorge Posada #7: Hideki Matsui #8: Bernie Williams #9: Enrique Wilson/Miguel Cairo
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