The Keltner List

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

 

Not at all. Relief pitchers are never considered the best players in baseball, and Gossage only finished in the top 10 of MVP voting twice.

 

2. Was he the best player on his team?

 

He was the best player on the 1975 Chicago White Sox, whom finished 75-86. Reggie Jackson was a better player with the Yankees teams, and Tony Gwynn was the star of the NL champion '84 Padres.

 

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

 

Yes, on both counts. Sometimes Bruce Sutter or Rollie Fingers topped Gossage in individual years, but overall Gossage was the best reliever in baseball. As for pitchers in general, Gossage was never among the best pitchers.

 

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

 

Gossage compiled a 2.01 ERA in 134.3 relief innings as the '78 Yankees completed the greatest stretch run in baseball history. An injury in 1979 may have cost the Yanks a chance to compete.

 

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

 

Absolutely. He pitched until he was 42 years old, and never had a truly bad season.

 

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

 

No. Ron Santo, Ryne Sandberg, and Bert Blyleven are more deserving, in my opinion.

 

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

 

Gossage's most similar pitchers, Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm, are in the Hall. However, none of the next eight are in. Moreover, names such as Lindy McDaniel, Stu Miller, Gene Garber, and Kent Tekulve are rarely mentioned in Hall of Fame discussions.

 

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

 

Gossage scores low on the Black Ink, Gray Ink, and HOF Standards scores.

 

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

 

Not really.

 

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

 

I believe he is. Whether he is deserving or not depends on your opinion of the Hall worthiness of closers.

 

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

 

As was mentioned before, Gossage finished 3rd in 1980, and 9th in 1981. Five times he finished in the top ten of Cy Young voting. His closest finish was in 1980, when he finished third.

 

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

 

Gossage played in nine All-Star games, a reasonable total for a Hall of Famer.

 

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

 

I doubt it. When Gossage was the best player on his team, they lost 86 games.

 

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

 

Gossage was a prime example of how different relieving was compared to starting. White Sox manager Paul Richards made Gossage a starter in 1976, and Gossage finished 9-17.

 

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

 

Usually. Gossage often clashed with owners, notably Padres owner Ray Kroc, over an edict considering beer drinking.

 

Conclusion: I find it hard to endorse Gossage as a candidate. He was never the best pitcher in baseball, and his success was dictated largely by his usage pattern. How many mediocre starters would have been Hall of Fame closers?

Edited July 25, 2004 by alkeiper

[MrRant 0]

The what list?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Keltner List. I take it for granted that people know it. Basically, its a Bill James creation, meant to evaluate a player's position in HOF arguments. Its named after Ken Keltner, a 3B and borderline candidate from the 40s, known best for stopping DiMaggio's hit streak.

[CanadianChris 0]

Your conclusion isn't supported by the facts you bring up. The fact that you would even bring up the Black Ink and Grey Ink numbers -- numbers which are overwhelmingly biased toward starters -- indicates your own apparent bias against relief pitchers. (Fingers' Black and Grey numbers, BTW, are 12 and 58.)

 

Bottom line is, Gossage is the best reliever ever to not be in the Hall, by far, and should be in on that basis.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Your conclusion isn't supported by the facts you bring up. The fact that you would even bring up the Black Ink and Grey Ink numbers -- numbers which are overwhelmingly biased toward starters -- indicates your own apparent bias against relief pitchers. (Fingers' Black and Grey numbers, BTW, are 12 and 58.)

 

Flawed as they are, those are the best tools available. And the question is whether Gossage meets the standards of pitchers already in the HOF. Since most pitchers in the Hall are starters, he does not. But if you think relievers are deserving, you can effectively disregard that question, and there's nothing wrong with that.

[Precious Roy 0]

Saying: "how many mediocre starters would be hall of fame closers?" had ZERO basis in this argument. They weren't, so you don't know. You can only base it on who played the position and how they did, and to say "closers couldn't be starters thus shouldn't be in the HOF" is pretty ignorant IMO. It's an important, high pressure position that very few truely excell at and they deserve recognition for their accomplishments.

 

From current closers Mariano is an obvious lock, as well as Gagne and Hoffman IMO. And Gossage should be in too.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Saying: "how many mediocre starters would be hall of fame closers?" had ZERO basis in this argument. They weren't, so you don't know. You can only base it on who played the position and how they did, and to say "closers couldn't be starters thus shouldn't be in the HOF" is pretty ignorant IMO. It's an important, high pressure position that very few truely excell at and they deserve recognition for their accomplishments.

 

Eric Gagne started 24 games in 2001, finished with a 6-7 record and a 4.75 ERA. Eddie Guardado, Tim Worrell, Rocky Biddle and many others had their turns as starters, and weren't very good. Meanwhile, John Smoltz and Dennis Eckersley are the only two closers I can think of who were respectable starters.

 

As for the three you mentioned. I have alot of respect for Gagne. He is, easily, one of the best closers I have ever seen. But he's been a closer for three years. Three years does not make anyone a HOFer. Hoffman's been around for 11 years, and Rivera's been around for 10. How many starters have pitched just 10-11 years and made the Hall? None in the last twenty years, and I can really only think of two in modern times: Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax. I think relievers need to pitch at a high level for about 15 years before garnering consideration. A tough standard perhaps, but the Hall should be tough.

[treble 0]

It's funny, Rocky Biddle's actually been pretty good in his 3 starts so far for the Expos. I keep waiting for the wheels to fall off, but they haven't yet.

 

And, like Al said, there's no way that Gagne is an 'obvious lock'. As good as he's been, no one's going into the Hall after only 3 years at the top of their game.

[Guest Anglesault]

As for the three you mentioned. I have alot of respect for Gagne. He is, easily, one of the best closers I have ever seen. But he's been a closer for three years. Three years does not make anyone a HOFer. Hoffman's been around for 11 years, and Rivera's been around for 10.

That creepy Gagne math that made Rivera a 12 year closer seems to be raring it's head again. This will be Mo's eighth year as a closer.

[Hogan Made Wrestling 0]

Rivera to me should be an HOFer because of his dominance as a closer, his outstanding start as a setup man, and his massive contribution to countless World Series and ALCS wins. Gagne and Hoffman are definite nos for me at this point, along with guys like Robb Nen. Smoltz could be an interesting case given his career as both a starter and reliever.

[Beast 0]

While I don't know enough about Gossage in particular to give a definte opinion, he does seem like a HOFamer looking at his stats. He was a dominating relief ace for a long time and is probably behind only Wilhelm and Eckersley as the greatest reliever, not counting any active players since I'm not as familliar. Plus, since you are using James' methods, his HOF Monitor score is 126, meaning that that sees him as being worthy of enshrinement. James also has him ranked as the 36th best pitcher of all time, above Blyleven, Early Wynn, Bob Lemon, Red Ruffing, and Catfish Hunter among others. Fingers isn't even in the top 100. This was an interesting post though, please do more Keltners.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I should clarify the HOF Monitor. It is not meant to determine HOF worthiness. Its purpose is to predict HOF enshrinement, based on previous voting patterns. So batting titles, for example, carry more weight than any toll James would usually employ.

[Hektik 0]

Here is an article that Trevor Hoffman wrote about the closer role and the HOF. He makes a good point that we will have to wait and see before we automatically dismiss the current closers from consideration.

 

Hall voters may delay entrance of top closers

By Trevor Hoffman

 

I think Goose (Gossage) is from the older era of closers. People don't realize he went out for two and three innings or three and four innings to get his saves.

 

I don't think you can put a price tag on how guys like that ultimately got their saves. And to accrue over 300 career saves (that way), it should be a no-brainer (for election to the Hall of Fame).

 

But I know it's a specialty role. Members of the media might need more time to see how this role is going to play out in the future. They don't want to jump the gun on any conclusion.

 

I just think there's an era of guys (who are closing) right now, who people need to see how they play out. They want to see if that 478 (all-time-leading saves total) Lee Smith threw out there is a pretty solid number. I think it's turning into something pretty tough to achieve. And you have to give that credence; he holds the major league record.

 

It's hard to compare one era to another (with closers) when you don't know how the (Robb) Nens, the (Billy) Wagners, the (Trevor) Hoffmans, the (Troy) Percivals (ultimately will measure up). And I leave Mariano (Rivera) out because I think he's done so much in the postseason that he kind of separates himself from everybody and ultimately puts himself in an area like Eck (Dennis Eckersley).

 

(John) Smoltz (could go into the Hall of Fame) if he continues to add up the save numbers and you add in his wins (as a starting pitcher) and his dominance in the postseason.

 

I don't think Eck going in the Hall of Fame is going to open the floodgates for a lot of guys (who are closing) now. I think it'll put Goose on the map. It should put Lee Smith on the map and (Bruce) Sutter, because he revolutionized the role.

 

I'm flattered when people say, "Aw, you're a Hall of Fame choice." It's tough, because I've seen that happen to (Detroit manager) Alan Trammell, (a former shortstop, who has languished in Hall of Fame voting). And Tram's numbers are right there with (Hall of Fame shortstop) Ozzie Smith's numbers.

 

You never know where things are going to play out. I think being in my position, you just have to grind as long and as hard as you can and strive for perfection. I think that's the only way you can try and force something to happen, ultimately, in that type of a (Hall of Fame) vote.

 

What ultimately is going to separate people in this role? It's not just going to be the (number of) saves. Otherwise, I think Lee (Smith) would be in.

 

San Diego closer Trevor Hoffman has gone 24-for-27 in save situations this season and ranks fourth all-time, with 376 saves. Hoffman, 36, has a career saves percentage of .889, third best behind Eric Gagne (.964) and John Smoltz (.920) among pitchers with at least 100 saves. Hoffman has earned more than 40 saves in five seasons, including 1998, when he went 53-for-54 in save situations and finished second in voting for the National League Cy Young Award.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

This was an interesting post though, please do more Keltners.

 

Who would you guys like to see for the next Keltner list?

[CanadianChris 0]

Jim Rice

Alan Trammell

Tommy John

Lee Smith

Bert Blyleven

[Beast 0]

Ted Simmons, Don Mattingly, Ryne Sandberg, Ron Santo, Alan Trammel, Minnie Minoso, Jim Wynn, Dave Parker, Carl Mays, Bert Blyleven, Wes Ferrell, and Lon Warneke.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Damn. My summer just got booked.