yay math! (warning: long)

[Guest Smell the ratings!!!]

first off, I'm not doing OPS+, because that would require over 5 minutes of calculating. Make Al do it or something.

 

second, Win Shares counts defense, but their methods of measuring defense range from crappy to shitty.

 

Win Shares NL

 

C - Jason Kendell - 23

1B - Albert Pujols - 36

2B - Mark Loretta - 32

SS - Cesar Itzurus - 24

3B - Scott Rolen - 38 (beats Beltre by 3)

OF - Barry Bonds - 51 (HOLY FUCKBALLS)

OF - Bobby Abreu - 34

CF - Jim Edmonds - 37

 

SP - Randy Johnson - 23

SP - Roger Clemens - 19

SP - Carlos Zambrano - 19

SP - Pavano/Schmidt/Sheets - 18

RP - Armando Benitez - 15

 

Win Shares AL

 

C - Ivan Rodriguez - 20

1B - Mark Teixiera - 24

2B - Mark Bellhorn - 20

SS - Miguel Tejada - 26

3B - Alex Rodriguez - 28

OF - Gary Sheffield - 30

OF - Manny Ramirez - 26 (beats Vlad by 1)

CF - Johnny Damon - 24

 

SP - Johan Santana - 26

SP - Curt Schilling - 21

SP - Ryan Drese - 18 (no, seriously)

SP - Brad Radke - 18

RP - Joe Nathan - 15

 

VORP - NL

 

C- Jason Kendell - 45.9

1B - Albert Pujols - 100.4

2B - Mark Loretta - 76.6

SS - Jack Wilson - 47.4

3B - Adrian Beltre - 90.1

OF - Barry Bonds - 144.4 (HOLY FUCKBALLS)

OF - Bobby Abreu - 83.8

CF - Jim Edmonds - 88.3

 

SP - Randy Johnson - 69.2

SP - Ben Sheets - 66.7

SP - Carl Pavano - 62.3

SP - Zambrano/Clemens - 61.2

RP - Brad Lidge - 38.1

 

VORP - AL

 

C - Ivan Rodriguez - 64

1B(ok, DH) - Travis Hafner - 73.9

2B - Alfonso Soriano - 40.7

SS - Miguel Tejada - 79.5

3B - Melvin Mora - 79.6

OF - Vladimir Guerrero - 93.4

OF - Ichiro Suzuki - 78.7

CF - Aaron Rowand - 53.6

 

SP - Johan Santana - 89.3

SP - Curt Schilling - 73.4

SP - Brad Radke - 60.5

SP - Jake Westbrook - 55

RP - Tom Gordon - 39.8

 

Runs Created/27 Outs - NL

 

C - Jason Kendell - 6.01

1B - Todd Helton - 11.04

2B - Mark Loretta - 7.30

SS - Jimmy Rollins - 5.99

3B - Scott Rolen - 8.84

OF - Barry Bonds - 20.21 (HOLY FUCKBALLS)

OF - Lance Berkman - 9.46

CF - Jim Edmonds - 9.80

 

RC/27 - AL

 

C - Ivan Rodriguez - 6.96

1B (eh....fuck it) - Travis Hafner - 8.55

2B - Mark Bellhorn - 6.15

SS - Carlos Guillen - 7.30

3B - Melvin Mora - 8.62

OF - Vladimir Guerrero - 8.29

OF - Manny Ramirez - 8.25

CF - Aaron Rowand - 7.22

 

 

that Bonds guy...he ain't bad.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Remember those Win Share totals are updated through Sept. 23. Vlad will gain big thanks to the last week when they do the final calculations.

 

second, Win Shares counts defense, but their methods of measuring defense range from crappy to shitty.

 

How so? Win shares has a few defensive measurement mechanisms which are far above any other statistical evaluation of defense can measure. I'd like to know what your specific complaints are.

[Guest Smell the ratings!!!]

yeah Vlad should jump way up. He had like 6 homers last week.

 

really my complaints are with defensive stats in general. BP guards thier formula like gold, but the results certainly leave something to be desired (I think)

 

I kinda like UZR but this year's isn't out yet

[Slayer 0]

Holy fuckballs indeed

[Guest Staravenger]

Win Shares NL

OF - Barry Bonds - 51 (HOLY FUCKBALLS)

 

VORP - NL

OF - Barry Bonds - 144.4 (HOLY FUCKBALLS)

 

Runs Created/27 Outs - NL

OF - Barry Bonds - 20.21 (HOLY FUCKBALLS)

Fuck my balls and call me Boy George!

[Guest Anglesault]

How did Matsui go from the second in AL MVP win shares to worse than Johnny Damon in a month where he was on fire?

[the pinjockey 0]

Damon is listed at CF, it looked like he did 2 generic corner OFs and a CF specific.

[Guest Anglesault]

Damon is listed at CF, it looked like he did 2 generic corner OFs and a CF specific.

Aha

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

yeah Vlad should jump way up. He had like 6 homers last week.

 

really my complaints are with defensive stats in general. BP guards thier formula like gold, but the results certainly leave something to be desired (I think)

 

I kinda like UZR but this year's isn't out yet

I think Win Shares deserves a look. With conventional stats, the problem is they look at players as individuals. Since each team records 27 outs a game, the statistics have to go somewhere. This means there is no difference between a good team and a bad team. Obviously bad teams have bad hitting, or bad pitching. Doesn't it stand to reason that they have bad fielding as well?

 

Win Shares works backwards, assuming a team that allows a lot of runs has bad fielding, and vice versa. If there is a good fielder on the team, the stats adjust for it. I think this results in a tremendous improvement in fielding analysis. A few examples...

 

One, traditional fielding statistics would show a good first baseman as making alot of assists. But a fielder like Steve Garvey would turn out sub-par because he would make easy plays himself, rather than flip to the pitcher. Win Shares points out the error in this thinking, and uses the assist statistics of the rest of the fielders to determine how many putouts were because of the first baseman. This results in players like Garvey, usually derided in fielding stats, appear as good as their reputation.

 

Second, Total Baseball and Pete Palmer claimed their analysis showed Napolean Lajoie was one of the greatest fielders of all time. This despite the fact that his fielding was never especially notable at the time. James' system shows that Lajoie made all the discretionary plays, such as covering the bag during a steal attempt. James notes that Cleveland's shortstops at the time had particularly low putout totals at the time. Win Shares adjusts for this.

 

Finally, most sabermetric fielding stats rated Johnny Bench as not a particularly good fielder. Win Shares is the first to rate Bench as what he was, an excellent defensive catcher.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Here are the final win share award winners...

 

AL MVP

1. Gary Sheffield

2. Alex Rodriguez

3. Miguel Tejada

4. Vladimir Guerrero

5. Hideki Matsui

6. Manny Ramirez

7. Johan Santana

8. Ichiro Suzuki

9. Johnny Damon

10. Derek Jeter

 

I rank pitchers purely by pitching win shares, and not from hitting contributions.

 

AL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana

2. Curt Schilling

3. Mark Buehrle

 

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Bobby Crosby

2. Shingo Takatsu

3. Zach Greinke

 

AL Gold Gloves

C Damian Miller

1B Mark Teixeira

2B Orlando Hudson

SS Christian Guzman

3B Alex Rodriguez

OF Johnny Damon

OF Mark Kotsay

OF Torii Hunter

 

NL MVP

1. Barry Bonds

2. Albert Pujols

3. Scott Rolen

4. Adrian Beltre

5. Bobby Abreu

6. Jim Edmonds

7. J.D. Drew

8. Mark Loretta

9. Lance Berkman

10. Todd Helton

 

NL Cy Young

1. Randy Johnon

2. Ben Sheets

3. Roger Clemens

 

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Khalil Greene

2. Jason Bay

3. Termell Sledge

 

Sledge is a big surprise here. He wasn't on my radar at all.

 

NL Gold Gloves

C Brian Schneider

1B Todd Helton

2B Jeff Kent

SS Jack Wilson

3B Adrian Beltre

OF Jim Edmonds

OF Andruw Jones

OF Corey Patterson