BCS Week 5 Standings

[CanadianChris 0]

1 (1) USC

2 (2) Oklahoma

3 (3) Auburn

4 (4) Cal

5 (6) Texas

6 (7) Utah

7 (9) Michigan

8 (12) Florida State

9 (10) Boise State

10 (14) Louisville

 

No real surprises this week. OU is ranked 1st in 5 of 6 computers (2nd in the other), USC 2nd in 5 of 6 (1st in the other), and Auburn 3rd in 5 of 6 (4th in the other). I really can't see how Auburn is going to overcome this deficit, which is a shame, because they really are playing like the best team in the country right now.

 

On a side note, whoever thought we'd see a BCS with Utah, Boise State and Louisville all in the top 10?

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

I don't even know if I care anymore. It seems even if Auburn ends up having the more impressive undefeated season that Oklahoma will get in just because they were No.2 when the season started.

 

EDIT: Not like I should be surprised since the BCS has only picked the right game once or twice since it started.

[Secret Agent 0]

Don't worry, one team will fall before it's all said and done with.

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

I would laugh for months if Oklahoma was to lose to Baylor.

[Guest MikeSC]

I don't even know if I care anymore. It seems even if Auburn ends up having the more impressive undefeated season that Oklahoma will get in just because they were No.2 when the season started.

And that's the big problem with the entire system. Assumptions before the season starts plays far too large a role.

-=Mike

[Damaramu 0]

I would laugh for months if Oklahoma was to lose to Baylor.

Actually I probably would too on that one....Baylor beating anyone draws a chuckle.

 

And UTAH IS 6! HA take that Texas fuckers!

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

Now granted this will be nowhere near as laughable as the last time Nebraska got in.

[Damaramu 0]

So am I reading this right? If OU goes undefeated are they pretty much in?

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

It would depend. If Auburn wins out they'll gather a lot of points for beating Alabama and Tennessee while Oklahoma will just be playing scrubs. So there's a chance Auburn will jump them in the human polls and the computer polls won't move them. So we could be in for a mess like last year.

[Damaramu 0]

So if Auburn were to jump OU in both polls but OU were to remain one in computer rankings they'd pretty much hold onto the #2 in the BCS right?

Plus there's like a 250-300(something like that) difference between OU and Auburn in the BCS and only like a 200 point difference between OU and USC.

 

Wow this is going to be close.

[iggymcfly 0]

There's no way that Auburn's going to be make up all of this deficit in the polls. They just have to hope that the final two games affect the strength of schedule enough that Auburn can jump Oklahoma in 2 or 3 computer rankings and that USC jumps them in the other ones.

 

Then, the few points that Auburn will gain in the polls might be enough for them to move into #2 in the BCS. Remember, last year at this time LSU was ranked #4 in the BCS standings.

[CanadianChris 0]

Then, the few points that Auburn will gain in the polls might be enough for them to move into #2 in the BCS. Remember, last year at this time LSU was ranked #4 in the BCS standings.

True, but it was a drastically different system then, too. USC or Oklahoma is going to have to get absolutely shocked for Auburn to make up the deficit, I think.

[Damaramu 0]

Wasn't SOS taken out of the computer polls? So how can Auburns last two games affect their computer ranking?

Does being #2 in both polls not make up the deficit?

 

Wait a minute. If Auburn were to play close with Alabama and Tennessee and give up a bunch of points like OU did against OSU and A&M won't they get shunted back down to #3 by the fickle voters?

 

Chris I'll trust you since you and 2GOLD seem to know the most about this. Can Auburn overtake OU without OU losing or playing Baylor and ISU close?

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Wasn't SOS taken out of the computer polls? So how can Auburns last two games affect their computer ranking?

Does being #2 in both polls not make up the deficit?

 

Wait a minute. If Auburn were to play close with Alabama and Tennessee and give up a bunch of points like OU did against OSU and A&M won't they get shunted back down to #3 by the fickle voters?

 

Chris I'll trust you since you and 2GOLD seem to know the most about this. Can Auburn overtake OU without OU losing or playing Baylor and ISU close?

Not really. Only if OU loses.

[Damaramu 0]

So even if Auburn becomes #2 in both polls OU is still going to maintain it's BCS ranking?

 

B/c SOS was taken out of the computers so it shouldn't hurt OU or help Auburn in the computer rankings. That would mean that OU has pretty much got a solid hold on the #2 BCS ranking unless they lose. I hope.....

[iggymcfly 0]

Sometimes I think that even if the BCS standings were determined solely by points scored minus points against, people would complain that they're "confusing." I'll give one good effort here to explain this as clearly and concisely as possible.

 

It's really simple actually. Two thirds of the ranking is total points in the two polls. It's not the rank, it's the number of points. So, for instance this week, Oklahoma had a total of 2971 points while Auburn had 2969.

 

Now, yes, the separate component that measures SOS has been eliminated. This is the number where they took your rank in SOS based on a very simplistic formula, and multiplied it by .04 to make up a component of your final score. It has nothing to do with the computer rankings.

 

The computer rankings still count for one third of the total score. And since they don't take into account margin of victory, some variety of strength of schedule is the only way that they can separate undefeated teams from each other.

 

Right now, the calculations in 5 of 6 computers say that Oklahoma's played the toughest schedule out of the three major unbeatens, while all 6 say that Auburn's played the weakest. However, Auburn's schedule will get strengthened considerably by playing Alabama and Tennessee, while Oklahoma's will get weakened considerably by playing Baylor and whichever shitty team comes out of the North.

 

If the schedules are far apart enough now that those two games won't affect them much, then Oklahoma should hold on and go to the Orange Bowl. However, if they're close enough that a couple big wins can make the difference, than Auburn could overtake Oklahoma in some of the computer rankings. If they do it in close to half of the computer rankings, and make up some ground in the polls, or actually pass Oklahoma in half of the computer rankings, they'll get the Orange Bowl berth instead.

[Damaramu 0]

Well as of right now OU's schedule rank is 10 while Auburn's is 27 I believe.

So they may just be far enough apart that Auburn can't make up ground.

Plus if Auburn is close with Alabama and Tennessee then they might get shunted down to 3 again in the human polls or may just lose ground causing OU to remain high enough.

I just don't know if the over 250 point deficit is enough for Auburn to make up. We'll probably know for sure after next week.

 

Plus since OU is 1 in virtually all(2 in one of them?) of the Computer rankings and Auburn is 3 in all of them and 4 in another they would have to jump a lot to catch OU in half of the computer rankings.

 

I think at this point it may take Auburn leaping USC to get into the title game.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Looks like Auburn will have an easier time jumping USC than OU.

[2GOLD 0]

I don't see it happening either. Auburn just had way too much ground to gain.

Is is possible? Very, but I don't see it. OU would have to suffer a drop in the computer polls and I can't see that happening unless Texas loses. A loss by Texas could hurt OU in the computer polls.

 

Auburn just cannot make up enough ground in the human polls to pass them.

[2GOLD 0]

Looks like Auburn will have an easier time jumping USC than OU.

 

Which better not happen.

No way should USC not be in the title game. I've been just as impressed with them as I have been with Auburn.

 

No matter what, someone is getting screwed and this year it looks like Auburn has been nominated.

[Damaramu 0]

So last year we have controversy with 3 one loss teams. OU, USC, and a team from the SEC named the Tigers.

 

This year we have controversy with 3 undefeated teams. OU, USC, and a team from the SEC named the Tigers.

 

Weird.......

[Damaramu 0]

I don't see it happening either. Auburn just had way too much ground to gain.

Is is possible? Very, but I don't see it. OU would have to suffer a drop in the computer polls and I can't see that happening unless Texas loses. A loss by Texas could hurt OU in the computer polls.

 

Auburn just cannot make up enough ground in the human polls to pass them.

Texas could easily lose to A&M though. So maybe everyone in Auburn land should become Aggie fans.

[teke184 0]

SoS is no longer a direct portion of the BCS formula.

 

HOWEVER, it can still be factored into the computer polls used to make up 33% of the formula.

 

 

Right now, though, Auburn is edging up into 2nd place because they're tied for #2 in one poll and only 4 points behind in the other. If they combine that with strong wins over Alabama and Tennessee, it could vault them in over Oklahoma, who'll face Baylor and whatever scrub the B-12 North throws up.

[CanadianChris 0]

The Texas/Texas A&M game likely won't matter, since it will add one win and one loss to OU's SoS regardless. The only team in the BCS it would affect would be Utah (which is why I'd love to see an A&M win).

 

The only realistic matchups I can see at this point are Auburn/OU and USC/OU. Auburn/USC looks pretty much impossible if all three teams stay undefeated. Even Auburn/OU would take some pretty weird stuff happening in the computers and the polls to come true.

[Damaramu 0]

So I can stop worrying about my Sooners getting left out of the title picture if they win out?

[iggymcfly 0]

Nah, USC's in. The polls still count for two-thirds, and the Trojans have a huge lead one UA and OU that won't be made up. It's only because the Sooners and Tigers are in a virtual tie in the polls that the computer rankings get factored in so strongly.

 

Also, a lot of the computer rankings make a big deal out of a team's best win, so a win by A&M would help Auburn somewhat.

[2GOLD 0]

Have they removed the bonus points in the computer polls for beating a top five opponent?

I'm pretty sure they have but I'll be damned if I'm going to look through that BCS explanation book EVER again.

 

Cause if they haven't, and Texas falls out of the Top 5...then yes, it will hurt OU. If the bonus points are gone, then it won't matter.

[Damaramu 0]

I'm sure they took out that quality win component. I'm pretty sure at least........

 

I'm so happy that OU now has an almost guranteed shot at the title.

 

In Bob Stoops weekly press conference he said something about having to look impressive and drop 60 on opponents. So I think he's looking to go one dimensional against Baylor and the North champ by having White throw for 4 or 5 TD's in both games. Hell I bet he goes on and tries to drop 65 on both teams.

[iggymcfly 0]

Since there seems to be a lot of mystery on the computer rankings, I did a little research and found each individual one. Here's the actual scores to show how close the teams are in each of the 6 rankings.

 

Also, where available, I am putting the previous week's ranking in parenthesis to show what kind of gain Auburn made with the Georgia win, and give an idea how they might gain over the rest of the season with a better schedule.

 

Sagarin Rankings:

 

1. Oklahoma 100.42

2. USC 100.38

3. California 93.96

4. Auburn 92.81

5. Utah 92.11

 

Massey Ratings:

 

1. USC 5.18

2. Oklahoma 4.96

3. Auburn 4.75

4. California 4.65

5. Utah 4.55

 

Colley's Rankings

 

1. Oklahoma .987 (.990)

2. USC .961 (.978)

3. Auburn .937 (.897)

4. Texas .887 (.879)

5. Arizona State .883 (.876)

 

Billingsley Report

 

1. Oklahoma 331.72 (326.32)

2. USC 319.16 (318.29)

3. Auburn 311.50 (298.67)

4. Texas 292.95 (290.73)

5. Michigan 288.99 (284.33)

 

Anderson & Hester Rankings

 

1. Oklahoma .844 (.848)

2. USC .840 (.847)

3. Auburn .827 (.818)

4. Utah .805 (.805)

5. California .786 (.789)

[iggymcfly 0]

It's just guesswork, but looking at these rankings for a minute, I'd say the final computer rankings will probably end up something like this:

 

USC: 4 firsts, 2 seconds

 

Oklahoma: 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 2 thirds

 

Auburn: 2 seconds, 4 thirds

 

If this were the case, the lowest and highest rankings would be dropped, leaving the teams with the following points:

 

USC = (25+25+25+24)/100 = .99

Oklahoma = (25+24+24+23)/100 = .96

Auburn = (24+23+23+23)/100 = .93

 

This would require Auburn to have 3% more points in the polls than Oklahoma in order to make the Orange Bowl. .03*3150= 94.5. This means that if my (fairly unscientific) prediction of the final computer rankings holds, Auburn would have to gain 97 points in the polls, or for instance pass Oklahoma in 48 ballots, and USC in 1.