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EVIL~! alkeiper

Texas Rangers

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The Plexiglass Principle states that teams that improve drastically in one season will usually decline in the next. Not always, but usually. Note the Marlins decline from 91 wins to a more reasonable 83. The forces of competition tend to pull teams towards .500. I bring this up because no team improved as unexpectedly as the Texas Rangers. Coming off four consecutive last place finishes, the Rangers hung in the AL West race until the last weeks of the season, finishing with 89 wins, and missing the division crown by just three games. Can they do it again?

 

The Rangers' success last year was due to their bullpen. Francisco Cordero (2.13 ERA), Brian Shouse (2.33) and Ron Mahay (2.55) all had great seasons. Frank Francisco was a surprise (especially to fans in Oakland) and Carlos Almanzar and Doug Brocail pitched well. The problem is that as a group, they are not likely to continue pitching so well. Only Frank Francisco is younger than 28, and he is battling arm problems this Spring. While Cordero is the real deal, the rest have good peripherals, but nothing astounding. The Rangers' pitching staff as a whole ranked 5th in the AL in runs scored, but 9th in walks and 11th in strikeouts.

 

The Rangers have improved from their club in 2003. But they are not quite there yet, and I expect a regression towards .500 this season.

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I see regression as well, but I'm rooting for them in the West. Always been a Showalter fan, and Soriano as well. I'd be worried about Soriano if I were Texas though. He's never been a great fielder, or had very good plate discipline, and his power output declined last year. Plus add to that the hamstring injuries which have him running less. I don't want to say he was a product of the Yankee lineup because the dude can hit, but he was close to 40-40 back to back years, and it'll be tough for him to get back to that. I'll give him another year or two though, he's only 29 years old.

 

Michael Young, Blalock and Texiera are all good hitters, Hidalgo is average but an upgrade for them, but the pitching just isn't there. I'm still amazed they were as competitive as they were last year.

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Young is a nice prospect, but overrated. He did not hit AAA until 25, and he's 26 now. I don't see any Ranger pitcher posting a sub-4.00 ERA, particularly in that ballpark. Juan Dominguez I think is the best young pitcher the Rangers have.

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