2007 Spring Training: The Thread

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

It's not as stupid as Steve Phillips saying that "there's a sixth category -- chemistry -- on the guys who have a sixth sense for creating it," in an article about the five tools. FJM got to that one, too.

Eric Young has apparently joined the BBTN crew. He was on ESPNews yesterday afternoon and it wasn't the best debut I've seen from an analyst.

 

(And I'm paraphrasing...)

 

Q: You've played in October. What's it going to take for a team to win it all this year?

 

A: It's going to take hitting, pitching, and defense. Can't do it if you're missing one of those.

 

Q: What did you think of Daisuke's performance in the Spring?

 

A: It was good but wait till he faces the Yankees 19 times a year.

 

[2GOLD 0]

Wow, see that would be damn impressive. Starting every game the Yankees/Sox play against each other will really give the rest of the staff a long rest.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

who knows a team better, a computer or the team's fans?

 

interesting, saw it over at the OH..hmm

[CanadianChris 0]

who knows a team better, a computer or the team's fans?

 

interesting, saw it over at the OH..hmm

Let's see, who's better at making predictions, an unbiased computer algorithm or a herd of biased observers?

[Guest Queen Leelee]

Instead of Howard striking out, he should have been bunting and playing baseball the right way.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

who knows a team better, a computer or the team's fans?

 

interesting, saw it over at the OH..hmm

Let's see, who's better at making predictions, an unbiased computer algorithm or a herd of biased observers?

 

I was quite unbiased with my predictions for the Os. Its actually pretty easy to be just on using OPS and ERA for the stats. Bedard is the only guy in the rotation that will likely turn a sub 4.00 ERA (3.25 was my estimate) although everyone with the exception of Trash-chel should be near 4 and not closer to 5. ERA for the bullpen guys are hard to predict but hopefully they'll all be lower than what they turned last year (it seems funny looking at it now that they traded for a bunch of guys who had ERAs in the 5s last year to improve a bullpen that had an ERA of 5+ last year..). Offensively, Mora will continue to slide off the face of the earth, Markakis will put up even better numbers in his 2nd season (everyone is predicting him to be the next breakout offensive star..so watch him be a huge bust), Hernandez will see a slight drop off since last year was a career year for him, Aubrey Huff should improve much playing at Camden Yards and Tejada should have an average year for himself..

 

oh, and to add some ST news to my posts..Jay Payton will likely start the Season on the DL With a hamstring injury of some sorts and the Os were interested in Reggie Sanders but it looks like they decided not to given they likely would have no place for him to play regularly.

 

/would have rather had Reggie Sanders than Jay Payton..but anyway..

[Guest Queen Leelee]

So, you're saying that every O's pitcher will drastically improve next year.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Bedard, Cabrera and Loewen should be halfway decent at least.

[CanadianChris 0]

So, you're saying that every O's pitcher will drastically improve next year.

But he's not biased!

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

who knows a team better, a computer or the team's fans?

 

interesting, saw it over at the OH..hmm

Let's see, who's better at making predictions, an unbiased computer algorithm or a herd of biased observers?

 

Community forecasting (i.e. "wisdom of crowds) is actually extremely accurate, as long as the pool surveyed is large enough. It's actually used in many other industries besides baseball and often produces results better than the most accurate projection systems.

[CanadianChris 0]

I'm not knocking the "wisdom of crowds" approach. I'm knocking this particular approach. The selection bias would be ridiculously large.

[vivalaultra 0]

In addition to Kerry Wood starting the season on the DL, Kenny Rogers and Eric Gagne are also starting the season there. And so are, probably, two of my fantasy picks-Freddy Sanchez and Carlos Quentin. There's actually lots of guys starting the season on the DL. It seems like more this year than the last few years.

[CanadianChris 0]

Carl Pavano is the Yankees' opening day starter. Go nuts, people.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2007/n...tory?id=2818854

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

For those who might be interested, Baseball Prospectus has posted their postseason odds report. For those who are unfamiliar with the report, they use a computer to simulate the upcoming season a million times, with player outcomes weighted against the likelihoood of expected performance. Just as a reminder, teams that are aggressive traders or have deep farm systems are always under-projected by the system.

 

The Yankees pace the AL with a 54% chance of making the playoffs, while the Phillies have the best shot in the NL at about 42%.

 

BP Postseason Odds Report

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

edit: my bad.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I like PECOTA's prediction for the White Sox better. No way are they a 72 win club.

 

That's a massive jump in win expectancy. It's probably because of guys like Thome, Konerko and Dye. At their age, they are either going to put up the same great perfomance they have recently or fall off a cliff. The baseline performance for their weighted mean is probably too low considering the types of players they have been and that's skewing the first set low.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

They are not playoff contenders but I just cannot see them sucking bad enough to compete with the Royals for the cellar. They'll be a middle-of the-road team at around 80-85 wins, 90 being optimistic.

[CanadianChris 0]

They are not playoff contenders but I just cannot see them sucking bad enough to compete with the Royals for the cellar. They'll be a middle-of the-road team at around 80-85 wins, 90 being optimistic.

I think they'll still be way ahead of the Royals, but I just can't see this team breaking .500 in this division with the roster they currently have. 75-80 wins sounds about right.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

The White Sox didn't really lose anyone but a declining pitcher in Freddy Garcia and a guy that was mainly in the bullpen in McCarthy. With that nearly identical roster they still managed to win 90. This with the Twins being who they are (and let's not forget they will be missing Liriano for a good long while in 2007) and Tigers possibly being better with Sheff or same or worse with either the pitching staying or declining (Rogers on DL won't help), how they will not get at least 80, is what confuses me. Yeah sure, bias might play into it, but I just don't see such a black hole in the White Sox roster that'd knock them at least 10 wins down.

 

edit: Of course I assume the guys like Dye and Thome and co will maintain a level close to 2006 and I assume that the LF/CF spots can't get any worse.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I think the problem with the White Sox as far as PECOTA is concerned is that they have all of their fifth starter candidates performing badly. I'd be curious to see what their projection would look like if they replaced their fifth starter with a pitcher with an ERA around 5 or so. The last time they lost 90 games was 1989, and I don't see how this club can fall that far, that fast. Especially if they don't show patience if Scott Podsednik and Juan Uribe fail to produce.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Didn't anyone see the main page of espn.com today? FJM beat me to the punch... again. In case you missed it, here is the lead article:

 

So, how did Ryan Howard go from 151 Ks in 2003 to 58 HRs in 2006? The NL MVP kept tinkering with his swing while toiling in the minors. Oh, and he's not done tweaking that sweet stroke.

 

This might be the stupidest thing ever. They seemingly forgot to mention that he struck out 180(!) times last year. Strikeouts mean nothing. They are the same as any other out. Why can't they figure this out? It's not that difficult.

 

Oh, and he wasn't exactly "toiling" away in the minors. He was mashing the ball with an OPS of 900 or something like that.

Well the truly silly thing is that along with those 151 Ks, he hit .304! Toiling doesn't mean failing though.

[2GOLD 0]

Why did everyone go crazy nuts impressed with D-K's five inning no hitter? He threw 104 pitches, walked five and struck out six. While the zero hits allowed is kinda impressive, his complete lack of control isn't. I think he'll do just fine in the majors but that got turned into a big story when the reality is that line isn't as impressive as it was made out to be at all.

 

As for those predictions, if the Cubs win 86 games and win the Central after last year then I'll be damn happy.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Why did everyone go crazy nuts impressed with D-K's five inning no hitter? He threw 104 pitches, walked five and struck out six. While the zero hits allowed is kinda impressive, his complete lack of control isn't. I think he'll do just fine in the majors but that got turned into a big story when the reality is that line isn't as impressive as it was made out to be at all.

 

It was a big story? It's disgusting in how much time I spend obsessing over the Red Sox and I didn't even remember that he threw five innings of no hit ball until you just mentioned it. I thought he looked okay, but his command was a little off on a few of his pitches. A good performance, but nothing to write home about.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

The White Sox black hole is their manager.

 

I think the notion about their decline in hitting is overstated, though. Other than Dye, there's no justifiable reason to assume others will significantly drop off. And on the other side, Juan Uribe will likely not be as horrible as he was last year.

[2GOLD 0]

Why did everyone go crazy nuts impressed with D-K's five inning no hitter? He threw 104 pitches, walked five and struck out six. While the zero hits allowed is kinda impressive, his complete lack of control isn't. I think he'll do just fine in the majors but that got turned into a big story when the reality is that line isn't as impressive as it was made out to be at all.

 

It was a big story? It's disgusting in how much time I spend obsessing over the Red Sox and I didn't even remember that he threw five innings of no hit ball until you just mentioned it. I thought he looked okay, but his command was a little off on a few of his pitches. A good performance, but nothing to write home about.

 

Not you, the jackasses on sports shows still won't let it go as a sign he's going to change the face of baseball. I really don't get it sometimes.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Chicago's PECOTA explained:

 

The Verdict: There are four or five assumptions that are responsible for PECOTA’s controversial 72-90 projection. Let’s examine each of those.

 

 

1. There is no star in the starting rotation. Mark Buehrle has a ton of mileage on his arm, and wasn’t a guy who could afford to lose any stuff. Jose Contreras is old, and stunk in the second half. Jon Garland doesn’t miss bats. Javier Vazquez is good, but his home run rates prevent him from being a star. Prognosis: reasonable.

2. The back end of the White Sox pitching staff is a mess. I’m pleased that the White Sox have decided to go with Danks, and I’m optimistic about what they’re going to get out of him. Injury risk is a problem here-–I don’t think that Gavin Floyd has any business in a major league uniform, and I don’t know what to expect out of Charlie Haeger. But if the top four stay healthy and Danks holds down his spot, I expect passable results. Similarly, the back of the bullpen should be better than projected given Don Cooper’s history. Prognosis: possibly unreasonable.

3. The White Sox are going to lose a ton of value from the LF and CF positions. Scott Podsednik’s weaknesses are well-established, and leave the White Sox in a 3-4 win hole at his position. I suppose that Darin Erstad could be healthy again, but what are the White Sox expecting–-a return to his 2005 numbers? He hit a forgettable .273/.325/.371 that season. The best-case scenario is that Erstad is about average; the worst-case scenario is that he’s the worst regular in the league. Prognosis: reasonable.

4. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye will decline. Dye is a fine athlete, but career seasons at 32 are usually just that. Paul Konerko has stayed remarkably healthy, but he’s an old player’s skills guy with bad knees. We’ve already discussed Thome. Prognosis: reasonable.

5. The White Sox will stick with their current roster. This is an implicit assumption of all the depth chart-based projections, since we don’t try and account for potential trades. Nevertheless, Williams is an active trader, and the White Sox should have a bit of payroll left to spend. If they hang in the race through July, I expect some reshuffling. Prognosis: probably unreasonable.

 

I’m comfortable giving the White Sox +5 wins, for a 77-85 record. I’m not comfortable with more than that. This is a brutally tough division that doesn’t permit much margin for error, and other projection systems are nearly as down on the White Sox as PECOTA. There are a finite number of wins to go around, and somebody has to draw the short stick. The White Sox look like they’re going to be that team. And have we mentioned that Bobby Jenks might not be healthy?

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Eh fair enough. I don't think they'll do worse than a 80-82 record if nobody gets injured severely, but we shall see.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

So, you're saying that every O's pitcher will drastically improve next year.

 

I hope you mean this year. And yes, I think that with the exception of Trash-chel they should all improve over last year based on the #1 factor being they've had a full spring training to work with Leo Mazzone (vs last year when Leo didnt see em at all in Spring Training due to the WBC). I Think even Jaret Wright should be able to improve, as he was familiar with Mazzone for a time and had a really good season with ATL in 2004.

 

Erik Bedard has improved in each of his 3 seasons w/ the Os so far and this has to be the year he steps up to be elite pitcher (with some calling him a sleeper pick to win the Cy Young Award but I doubt that seriously).

Last year: 15-11, 3.76 ERA 176 Ks 1.35 WHIP 198 IP

 

Daniel Cabrera has been average at best the last two season after his outstanding rookie season, but he showed MAJOR improvements over the last half of the season after being sent to the minors and getting his vision corrected, primarily in his control

Last year: 9-10 4.74 ERA 157 Ks 104 BB 1.58 WHIP 148 IP

 

Adam Loewen pitched the 2nd half of last year for his first major league experience, struggling at times but looking brilliant at others.

Last year: 6-6 5.37 ERA 98 Ks 1.58 WHIP 112 IP

 

Those are the 3 guys from the rotation last year..again, I think the extra time for these 3 working with Mazzone will mean definite improvements for all of them.

 

Trash-chel isn't going to improve over last year and Im not even going to suggest as much, but he'll do..the Os needed a veteran pitcher on the staff with it being so loaded in the front with younger guys.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Os/Nats in Norfolk today..wow..I might have to take the 3 1/2 hour trip to Norfolk to see a AAA game this year. Really nice view and park from the early looks..

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Kenny Rogers is out for half a season due to surgery for blood clots.